Politico has an interesting story – SEE HERE – But they stop short of projecting any turnout model, so here’s a challenge.
Those of you who know the depth of CTH research will understand the goal.
We’ve run some election models based on current voter trends in the first four primary races. What the data shows is that Candidate Donald Trump is positioned to easily win the GOP primary (Super Tuesday and Beyond) – AND – also crush Hillary Clinton in a general election.
However, for the sake of argument, I’d rather commission someone else to collate their own study of the same – and willing to display the “independent results” as a guest post, or a direct link (if preferred) to their findings.
Here’s the basic idea:
STEP ONE – Take the total aggregate vote count for the Democrats in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada for 2016. Do the same with the Republican vote counts.
=> Find the average percentage increase (GOP) and decrease (DEM) in 2016, by comparing to 2012 primary results of the same four states.
STEP TWO – Extend the average percentage increase and decrease (intensity measurement) to the currently scheduled primary races through March 15th of 2016
=> by multiplying the 2016 percentage increase/decrease result against the 2008 primary vote results of the same states (for democrats) and 2012 primary results same states (for republicans). The result is the estimated 2016 primary race total voter turnout (of those states only) for both Democrats and Republicans – through March 15th.
Highlight your finding.
STEP THREE – Find the total voter turnout in the “general election” of the same states in 2012 (Rep) and 2008 (Dem) => Identify the percentage of change from primary to general election in 2012 (R) and 2008 (D).
STEP FOUR – Using a comparison of Primary voter turnout to General Election voter turnout from 2012/2008 (percentage of change) in step three. => Estimate the general election voter turnout in 2016 [(using 2012 model (R), 2008 model (D)) % change to general, and current 2016 % change trend].
Highlight your finding.
Email your findings, or post the results on your blog/website.
(reminder to cite your data sources)
