Post Election Night Debrief – Trump Dominates Northeast Primary Result…

To say that candidate Donald Trump dominated last night’s election result is a bit of an understatement.  Team Trump supporters absolutely crushed the competition and outperformed even the largest pre-election night expectations.

Not only did Team Trump win, but the Northeast voters resoundingly won with results that far exceeded the polls going into the five state races:

april 27 1

Key Points:

♦ Donald Trump voters beat the collective totals of both Senator Ted Cruz and John Kasich combined in every state contest, and now lead the national vote total by over 3.2 million votes.

♦ In addition, this is the sixth straight contest where Donald Trump has won more than 50% of the vote (61% in New York) putting to rest the argument that he’s not winning the majority vote.

♦ Donald Trump not only decidedly won every state, he also won every county within each of the five states (CT, PA, DE, RI, MD).   Trump also won every single congressional district within each of those states.

Simply put, this was a complete and total victory for candidate Donald Trump and all his supporters. That’s how the people voted, so now we shift focus to the delegate math.

trump new york victory

The Delegate Math – Going into last night’s contest Trump was holding 848 delegates (Cruz 559).  There were 175 possible delegates available last night, however 54 are unbound from PA.

Based on preliminary results, it appears Donald Trump has swept every pledged delegate in Maryland [38] (won every congressional district), also Connecticut [28] (won every CD and took more than 50% statewide), Pennsylvania [17] (statewide delegates are awarded winner-take-all) and Delaware [16], along with 11 delegates in Rhode Island.

That’s a net pledged delegate gain of 110.  However, the math gets better because it appears Trump has also won 45 of Pennsylvania’s 54 “unbound” district level delegates (delegates declared for Trump, or declared intent to vote for CD winner).  So the approximate gain in delegates yesterday is around 155.

Add those 155 to the previous 848 and you get 1,003.

The Math Will Move In Direct Proportion To The Ideology – Most of the media totals will not include those unbound delegates from PA regardless of who they declared support toward.  Some media totals may include parts or portions of those unbound delegates – so you can expect to see some significant disparity depending on which media outlet is presenting their version of the data.

EXAMPLE:  CNN has a total for Trump of 988 (LINK) –  The New York Times has 950 (LINK)  – Politico is also using 950 (LINK) – and Green Papers has 956 (LINK).  It appears CNN is using “some” of the unbound PA delegates, and the latter three are not using any.

However, the fact that Donald Trump has resoundingly won every congressional district in Pennsylvania, and the fact Trump won the entire state with 57% of the vote total, gives Team Trump an easy leverage point to advance the argument they are entitled to the support of all 54 unbound Pennsylvania delegates.  Again, it appears 45 of them are already pledged to Trump or have agreed to vote for the CD/State winner.

pennsylvania result

Conservatively it is fair to say Donald Trump has won, at a minimum, 1,000 delegates as of this moment.

The goal is to reach 1,237.  But again, lets be conservative and say –Moving Forward– Trump needs another 250 just for safe measure.  250 more delegates will easily put him over the top with wiggle room.

There are 502 delegates remaining in the next six weeks.  Indiana (next Tuesday) is holding 57 of those:

  • 27 are district allocated to the winner in each of the 9 congressional districts.  Whoever wins the most votes in that district will receive all 3 convention delegates.
  • 30 (10 base at-large delegates plus 17 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) statewide delegates are to be allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes statewide. (link)

Currently Donald Trump is slightly ahead of the polls in Indiana.  Senator Ted Cruz has planted his flag, and with it his entire campaign, on winning Indiana.

Prior to last night’s results, Indiana was a must win for Senator Cruz and the #NeverTrump team.  After last night’s results, Indiana is now an absolute MUST WIN for Senator Cruz.

If Donald Trump wins Indiana, taking most, many, if not all of the 57 delegates, the Cruz/Kasich/#NeverTrump scheme is completely wiped out.

However, IF Trump doesn’t win Indiana, and because of the overwhelming victory last night, not much mathematically changes for Trump.

The reason for optimism, even losing Indiana, is New Jersey (June 7th, 51 Delegates, winner-take-all) is Trump’s ace.  New Jersey is Trump country and he’s crushing it in every recent poll.    West Virginia (May 10th, 34 delegates) also looks very favorable for Trump.  And California (Also June 7th, 172 delegates w/ 159 by CD) can seal the deal.

New Jersey (51), West Virginia (34) and California (172) total 257 delegates.  Remember, with 1,000 in hand, Trump only needs 250.  [And that doesn’t count Oregon (28), Washington State (44) and New Mexico (24) possibilities for proportional wins].

So you can see, Indiana is vital for Cruz/Kasich, without it their entire scheme self destructs.  However, even if they succeed, Trump is now positioned to win regardless of the Indiana outcome.

All of that said, it would sure be nice to put the race away next week and be done with this nonsense; and given the sentiment growing increasingly obvious from the polled electorate, it appears the majority of American voters feel the same way.

trump lion

trump chicks 2

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This entry was posted in Big Government, Big Stupid Government, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Kasich / NDfA GOPe War, media bias, Ted Cruz. Bookmark the permalink.

739 Responses to Post Election Night Debrief – Trump Dominates Northeast Primary Result…

  1. Howie says:

    The Trump Doctrine is born.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. LULU says:

    Terrific stuff here, anecdotally and statistically:

    More than 60,000 disgruntled Pennsylvania Democrats switch parties

    http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/politics/4016904-more-60000-disgruntled-pennsylvania-democrats-switch-parties

    Liked by 6 people

    • LULU says:

      This too is interesting:

      At the same time, Republican officials are not necessarily doing backflips over the registration surge. They are very much aware that enthusiasm is more a vote for Trump than an affirmation of the their party. The state’s closed primary system forces voters to choose parties or sit out Tuesday’s contests.

      The Republicans know knows its hold on these voters is tenuous.

      “Both parties have lost track of how to reach out to middle-class voters,” said Michael T. Korns, Republican Party chairman in Westmoreland County, the next county over from Trump’s headquarters. “I don’t think anyone has been talking directly to voters in Westmoreland County. What we’ve been getting for a long time is basically ignored.”

      They know it is Trump. Voters had to switch registration in order to vote for him. But at least some recognize that something has to change to keep these new Republicans in the fold.

      Liked by 3 people

      • three by one says:

        The state GOP ignores constituents and treats us with contempt except in the month before an election.

        As an example of how dysfunctional the GOP delegate process is, compare the chaos in votes for delegates in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) to the votes for Presidential candidates:

        http://apps.alleghenycounty.us/election/201604PRI/EL45b.htm

        There are far fewer total votes for delegates than candidates. Voter confusion was rampant, at campaign headquarters for all candidates and at polling places.

        100% Grade-A Charlie Foxtrot.

        Harrisburg could not possibly care less. Keep the constituents in the dark and feed us manure. They love their bloated government.

        Take not also of the fewer totals for NON-Presidential candidates. People no longer vote straight ticket.

        Like

  3. v4ni11ista says:

    Ted the Lie Man met a pie man going to the election. Said Ted the Lie Man to the pie man, “Hear my preachy inflection.” Said the pie man to Ted the Lie Man, “The process is very confusing”. Said Ted the Lie Man to the pie man, “So people like you keep losing.” Said the pie man to Ted the Lie Man, “Well that just doesn’t sound fair.” Said Ted the Lie Man to the pie man, “What makes you think we care?”

    Liked by 6 people

  4. John Galt says:

    Sam Wang:

    “In today’s PEC update, Trump’s median projected delegate count is 1308 (interquartile range 1281-1330), with a 94% probability of getting to 1237.”

    http://election.princeton.edu/2016/04/27/trump-on-a-glide-path-since-mid-march/

    Liked by 4 people

  5. lahthoughts says:

    needs to dump the teleprompter….awful. loses his charisma.

    Like

    • mariner says:

      Do you believe you could give a speech like that without notes, without leaving anything out and without making mistakes?

      I can speak reasonably well in public and I couldn’t.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Laurelmary cecilia says:

      depends on the target audience…… he’s a brilliant communicator….I’m just sitting back and watching The Master

      Liked by 2 people

    • Trumped says:

      Doesnt hurt from time to time. This was just about getting the points across. There was nothing new to us and it was more aimed at the world and people who might like Trump when he shows his calmer side. It fitted the message.

      We will still have some great clashes with reporters when he is president. But prepare for less of the showmen..

      AND he has a strong cold. Great strength and stamina.

      Like

    • Walt says:

      Says absolutely no one, let Trump be Trump!

      Like

    • daughnworks247 says:

      I am positively overJOYED that my chosen candidate, the great TRUMP, is thoroughly uncomfortable with a teleprompter. Thank GOD. So much better than an Obama or Clinton who must sleep with their teleprompters.
      With a nod to lahthoughs, we like the charisma of an off-the-cuff Trump.
      Rational people are more apt to forgive a mis-speak,slight exaggeration/misquote, because we prefer someone who can look us in the eye. It was the PC media who made politicians afraid to speak candidly and jumped on every word. We always knew exactly what a politician meant in context.

      Liked by 1 person

    • jessinwis says:

      I was actually surprised how often he injected his Trump personality, repeating important phrases, emphasizing just as he does at a rally. He somehow remained a humane and compassionate figure amidst all that policy speak. I think he made the speech his own, after a dull start. I was very impressed.

      Like

  6. Keln says:

    The limited polling in Indiana obfuscates the real numbers right now, and I predict that Trump has much more than a “slight lead” there. I think he will win it by a large margin, and I’m not so sure any other candidate will see a win from here on out. Cruz’s numbers especially have declined massively since his Wisconsin win. I don’t think any amount of campaigning on his part is going to reverse that trend. It is obvious to the vast majority of the public, in any state, that Trump has basically won and that a vote against him is little more than symbolic at this point.

    If I were on the Trump campaign, I would create several ads showing bits of Ted Cruz’s speech from last night and comparing the outright lies he told to the actual truth, and then run those non-stop in states Cruz is expected to win. I don’t know if everyone saw that, but it was absolutely incredible how blatantly he was lying. He wasn’t even using weasel words, he was just flat out accusing Trump of being the opposite of everything Trump has said and then claiming all of Trump’s positions as his own. It was unbelievable.

    Like

    • Scott437 says:

      Keln wrote: “I don’t know if everyone saw that, but it was absolutely incredible how blatantly he was lying. He wasn’t even using weasel words, he was just flat out accusing Trump of being the opposite of everything Trump has said and then claiming all of Trump’s positions as his own. It was unbelievable.”

      Yes, I saw the clip where Cruz lied about Trump’s opposition to abortion and a whole succession of outright lies, made me want to throw a brick at the TV.

      Rafael is like Obama in that regard, it’s as if he says things designed to make people hate him. Regardless of who anyone supports, when a man gets up in front of an audience and lies through is lying teeth, it’s infuriating.

      .

      Liked by 1 person

      • Keln says:

        Except for his supporters apparently. They were cheering him on. I mean, when I hear Trump say something that is off or I’m not sure is accurate, I don’t cheer it on, I kind of wince and hope someone corrects him before his next speech.

        Liked by 1 person

      • ladypenquin says:

        Cruz has turned into someone just like Obama and all the other seedy politicians. Lying now on all fronts. And I say this as someone who once supported and voted for him. It isn’t Trump that pulled me away from Cruz, though I was always a defender of DT, it was Cruz himself…seeing him reveal character flaws that are unacceptable to me.

        Like

    • daughnworks247 says:

      Keln, you are dead on correct. I was screaming at the television. Cruz lied outright four times in a row about Trump’s positions (single payer health care, amnesty, higher taxes on everyone, and something else). He continued it this morning at a mini-press conference. He was weasely this morning on Trump’s positions (Trump is neutral on Israel, Trump wants the Iran deal to remain).
      OMG, I’m running out of shoes to throw at the TV.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Keln says:

        Forget shoes, I’d like to throw Cruz at the TV.

        Like

      • 1stgoblyn says:

        He’s not going to build the wall, he will decimate the 2A, expand the Iran deal and he’s pro-abortion? More lies. I’ve heard Cruz say these same lies over and over again. And his supporters parrot them as if they are the truth. Makes me sick.

        Like

  7. alliwantissometruth says:

    “All of that said, it would sure be nice to put the race away next week and be done with this nonsense; and given the sentiment growing increasingly obvious from the polled electorate, it appears the majority of American voters feel the same way”

    Yes, we do feel that way. This ridiculous party bull**** has gone on long enough. They continue to try to obstruct Trump at every turn, & it’s getting really old

    These disgusting party miscreants & their media handmaidens are running around like chickens with their heads cut off, flailing around trying to come up with some other ridiculous “strategy” to stop the peoples choice. Of course it won’t work, but they’re too stupid to understand that, & too stupid to see the damage they’re inflicting on themselves

    Liked by 2 people

    • keebler AC says:

      I was getting sick of Golly Gee Kasich and his locust eating habits, Goldman Sachs, Mike Levin, the terrible Lyin’Ted talking points on TV akin to debating copulating rats and fixing women’s hymens, and even Paul Frickin’debate loser Ryan since last week.

      But I prayed and the answer was that it was not over, and everyday no matter how distasteful, I have to find a way to keep knocking Lyin’Ted and Burger King Kasich down. The fun part is seeing what others are doing!

      Let’s finish it off! Indiana, Oregon and Washington. Have fun while doing it!!

      Liked by 1 person

  8. jonvil says:

    Given that the Democrat/GOPe NWO Globalist Uniparty is utterly corrupt – void of even a trace of ethics/ principles/ honesty – who will do ANYTHING to prevent Mr. Trump from being elected president, forgive me for remaining a nervous wreck until after November 8.

    Like

    • proudcsascionsc says:

      I’m afraid that I’m with you, on that, jonvil. Evil never gives up, it just morphs it’s approach, or appearance, anyway. I still wonder about all the candidates combining their delegates for a ringer, some chaos they use to justify martial law, or flat out assassination. Please GOD, I hope I’m wrong, and I apologize for the gloom and doom outlook; I just think they will never bow to what we hope and pray is the inevitability of a Trump presidency.

      Liked by 1 person

  9. geoffb5 says:

    The bought and the boughten, togetherness.

    Liked by 1 person

    • JoJo says:

      Wow, I never considered the Rubio angle. Now I wonder even more what was said during that semi-clandestine meeting between Cruz & Rubio in the closet a while back.
      Also, speaking of possible running mates, another stray thought – what if Gov. Pence offered to endorse DJT and DJT responded, “Better not, you’re on my short list of VP, and it wouldn’t look good. But thank you anyway.”

      Liked by 1 person

  10. jack dempsey says:

    I would not be surprised to see Cruz and Kasich drop out
    very soon.

    Like

    • keebler AC says:

      Romper Room Kasich needs 215% of the remaining delegates, and achieved only 1 delegate out of 172 in his bestest area, the moderate Northeastern states. This is an epic fail. Instead of being shamed out, he’s picking out a VP.

      The guy is definitely a pig not just in eating. He’ll eat his own piddly lunch on expense account and then swipe scraps off the table. He’s in it for the expense account. As soon as his sponsors sees BurgerKing Kasich adds no value to taking delegates away from Trump, they’ll drop his expense account.

      Like

    • Riddick says:

      Soros’ money will keep OH state’s 66 delegates from Trump. Kasic is in for the duration, do not make any other assumption.

      Liked by 1 person

    • 1stgoblyn says:

      “I would not be surprised to see Cruz and Kasich drop out very soon.”
      Not a snowball’s chance in h377. Cruz’ ego is too large and both have been promised something in return for stopping Trump short of the first ballot. Second ballot and they trot out Jeb! although both C and K have been assured by the GOPe they will be the nominee. Why else would they both be so adamant that they were going to be ‘teh won’?

      Like

  11. In AZ says:

    The sniveling slime called Karl Rove was on Fox News bragging that Cruz is, mathematically, not out of the race.
    The traitorous RNC is up to something as usual.
    Trump has really got to get his game on and work the common people to get votes.

    I forced myself to watch CNN and other news and it was nothing but bashing Trump, and using reverse psychology to get people to think twice about Trump, that Trump can not beat Clinton, Trump will not get the nomination, Cruz will get nomination etc. Also painted Trump as racist, bigoted and mysoginst. These news places had Cruz campaign people on to speak.

    Like

  12. John Moody says:

    Tokyo Rove needs to find him another hiding place! Go Trump Go
    “Get out of the Slump and vote for Trump”

    Like

  13. Pam says:

    Like

  14. Pam says:

    Like

  15. WeThePeople2016 says:

    CNN now has Trump at 991 and Cruz at 568.

    Like

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