To say that candidate Donald Trump dominated last night’s election result is a bit of an understatement. Team Trump supporters absolutely crushed the competition and outperformed even the largest pre-election night expectations.
Not only did Team Trump win, but the Northeast voters resoundingly won with results that far exceeded the polls going into the five state races:
♦ Donald Trump voters beat the collective totals of both Senator Ted Cruz and John Kasich combined in every state contest, and now lead the national vote total by over 3.2 million votes.
♦ In addition, this is the sixth straight contest where Donald Trump has won more than 50% of the vote (61% in New York) putting to rest the argument that he’s not winning the majority vote.
♦ Donald Trump not only decidedly won every state, he also won every county within each of the five states (CT, PA, DE, RI, MD). Trump also won every single congressional district within each of those states.
Simply put, this was a complete and total victory for candidate Donald Trump and all his supporters. That’s how the people voted, so now we shift focus to the delegate math.
The Delegate Math – Going into last night’s contest Trump was holding 848 delegates (Cruz 559). There were 175 possible delegates available last night, however 54 are unbound from PA.
Based on preliminary results, it appears Donald Trump has swept every pledged delegate in Maryland  (won every congressional district), also Connecticut  (won every CD and took more than 50% statewide), Pennsylvania  (statewide delegates are awarded winner-take-all) and Delaware , along with 11 delegates in Rhode Island.
That’s a net pledged delegate gain of 110. However, the math gets better because it appears Trump has also won 45 of Pennsylvania’s 54 “unbound” district level delegates (delegates declared for Trump, or declared intent to vote for CD winner). So the approximate gain in delegates yesterday is around 155.
Add those 155 to the previous 848 and you get 1,003.
The Math Will Move In Direct Proportion To The Ideology – Most of the media totals will not include those unbound delegates from PA regardless of who they declared support toward. Some media totals may include parts or portions of those unbound delegates – so you can expect to see some significant disparity depending on which media outlet is presenting their version of the data.
EXAMPLE: CNN has a total for Trump of 988 (LINK) – The New York Times has 950 (LINK) – Politico is also using 950 (LINK) – and Green Papers has 956 (LINK). It appears CNN is using “some” of the unbound PA delegates, and the latter three are not using any.
However, the fact that Donald Trump has resoundingly won every congressional district in Pennsylvania, and the fact Trump won the entire state with 57% of the vote total, gives Team Trump an easy leverage point to advance the argument they are entitled to the support of all 54 unbound Pennsylvania delegates. Again, it appears 45 of them are already pledged to Trump or have agreed to vote for the CD/State winner.
Conservatively it is fair to say Donald Trump has won, at a minimum, 1,000 delegates as of this moment.
The goal is to reach 1,237. But again, lets be conservative and say –Moving Forward– Trump needs another 250 just for safe measure. 250 more delegates will easily put him over the top with wiggle room.
There are 502 delegates remaining in the next six weeks. Indiana (next Tuesday) is holding 57 of those:
- 27 are district allocated to the winner in each of the 9 congressional districts. Whoever wins the most votes in that district will receive all 3 convention delegates.
- 30 (10 base at-large delegates plus 17 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) statewide delegates are to be allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes statewide. (link)
Currently Donald Trump is slightly ahead of the polls in Indiana. Senator Ted Cruz has planted his flag, and with it his entire campaign, on winning Indiana.
Prior to last night’s results, Indiana was a must win for Senator Cruz and the #NeverTrump team. After last night’s results, Indiana is now an absolute MUST WIN for Senator Cruz.
If Donald Trump wins Indiana, taking most, many, if not all of the 57 delegates, the Cruz/Kasich/#NeverTrump scheme is completely wiped out.
However, IF Trump doesn’t win Indiana, and because of the overwhelming victory last night, not much mathematically changes for Trump.
The reason for optimism, even losing Indiana, is New Jersey (June 7th, 51 Delegates, winner-take-all) is Trump’s ace. New Jersey is Trump country and he’s crushing it in every recent poll. West Virginia (May 10th, 34 delegates) also looks very favorable for Trump. And California (Also June 7th, 172 delegates w/ 159 by CD) can seal the deal.
New Jersey (51), West Virginia (34) and California (172) total 257 delegates. Remember, with 1,000 in hand, Trump only needs 250. [And that doesn’t count Oregon (28), Washington State (44) and New Mexico (24) possibilities for proportional wins].
So you can see, Indiana is vital for Cruz/Kasich, without it their entire scheme self destructs. However, even if they succeed, Trump is now positioned to win regardless of the Indiana outcome.
All of that said, it would sure be nice to put the race away next week and be done with this nonsense; and given the sentiment growing increasingly obvious from the polled electorate, it appears the majority of American voters feel the same way.