New Oklahoma Poll – Trump Leads With 27%, Cruz 18.3%, Carson 17.5%…

A new poll from Oklahoma shows what a disconnect there can be when using samples of “likely voters” (full poll data pdf below).  Donald Trump leads with 27%, Ted Cruz second with 18.3%, Carson in third with 17.5%, Rubio fourth with 16%.

A tightening field with Cruz gaining from Carson’s slips.  While Trump leads with all demographics, genders and age ranges (dominating the youth vote), the internals show Carson and Cruz base is within “very religious” segment of the Oklahoma electorate but only minimally stronger than Donald Trump – which is interesting.  Overall Oklahoma looks like a four person race.

OKLAHOMA CITY –  Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton remain the top choices for president among Oklahoma voters, according to an exclusive News 9/News On 6 poll.

If Oklahoma’s March 1 primary elections were held today, 27.1 percent of state Republicans say they would vote for Trump. Clinton controls nearly half of the Democrat primary vote, 46.6 percent, according to the poll.

Trump, who has remained the national GOP front-runner, leads Ted Cruz (18.3 percent), Ben Carson (17.5 percent) and Marco Rubio (16.3 percent) in the state. The rest of the Republican field — Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul and John Kasich — are all in the single digits. Nearly seven percent are undecided and 2.5 percent prefer someone else.

“We had [Trump] leading back in September and he’s still leading to this day,” says Bill Shapard, founder of  “I think it shows the Republican electorate is looking for someone who has not been a politician before. They’re looking for an outsider. They’re looking for ideas.”

Shapard warns a lot can happen between now and election night, especially as candidates drop out of the race and votes shift to others.

“What’s interesting in this poll is that we’ve seen movement among Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.  (read more)


This entry was posted in Donald Trump, Election 2016, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

109 Responses to New Oklahoma Poll – Trump Leads With 27%, Cruz 18.3%, Carson 17.5%…

  1. Scott Spencer says:

    I’m always thrilled to read/see Trump doing so well across the Nation.

    Thanks to you Sundance..

    Liked by 7 people

  2. aximand88 says:

    Serious question here, as someone that is newly independent (former Democrat), how disastrous would a Trump/Cruz ticket be? I realize that Cruz has some pretty damning ties to amnesty groups (not to mention his Wife’s occupation), but he also works very closely with Jeff Sessions.

    It might be my utter lack of knowledge concerning some of the more prominent conservatives, but I can’t see anyone filling Trump’s VP slot outside of a well known Republican.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. stevendufresne says:

    Trump needs to start spending money. It’s good to see Cruz and Carson capping each other, but my concern is Rubio consolidating the moderate vote. He’s gaining strength in the background. The race looks like it will come down to Rubio vs. Trump, unless Bush’s SuperPac goes nuclear on Rubio (which I doubt. They’re likely to go full bore on Trump).

    Liked by 1 person

  4. KBR says:

    One thing very noticeable about this poll is the number of voters age 65 and up =48%.
    Voters 50-64=38.4%. So 86.4% of poll were over 50 years old.
    I am wondering if this is due to weighting for “likely voters” assuming people are more likely to vote if they are over 50? Or just that it is a telephone poll that perhaps does not include people with only a cell phone: I think more over fifty’s still have landlines? And more of over 65 (retired) are likely to be home when the call was made?
    That 48% over 65 probably includes quite a few at the upper ages that don’t use computers, tweet, social media other than FB, and likely get all their news from MSM?
    Now it was a good poll for Trump, but might have been much better in reality, if age demographics were broader, which is why I ask.

    Liked by 4 people

    • KBR says:

      ^Meant to include also, in a poll with 48% of voters more likely to get news from TV, ads might make a huge positive difference in this demographic after Trump begins running them on TV.
      I wish pollsters would ask have you ever voted in a primary & will you vote in this primary.
      Or caucus.

      Liked by 2 people

      • West Highlands says:

        I was curious about what some of my neighbors who are 65 to late 80’s in age thought about the election and here is my very small sampling. When I asked what the scuttlebutt was, the reply was No way on Clinton or Sanders, no way on Carson, and Trump “has a big mouth”. These folks only get their news from the MSM which we all know misleads. They need some TV ads to inform them. Most I know in this age group do vote. I explain Trump’s position on things that matter to them, but they seem pretty hard to sway. They are mostly undecided right now. Hope this age group can be reached. I also volunteered to drive people to vote if needed.

        Liked by 2 people

        • wondering999 says:

          Good work West Highlands, keep it up

          Liked by 2 people

        • I’m 77 and don’t fit in the above category i.e. get news from MSM, and Trump is my man.

          Liked by 5 people

          • NCPatrick says:

            No Squirrel, you do not fit the category! Haha! I pay special attention to the crowd makeup when we get the big photos, and what I’m seeing at all of Trump’s speaking events is lots and lots of younger people.

            Many in their 20s and 30s, and of course there are sexy seniors too, but I am so doggoned gratified to see energized younger voters. Hey, they have the most to lose and to gain. They should be on the Trump Train, but what Trump brings to the table is something for everyone.

            I will say that I worry every day for his safety. When he moves down into the large crowds, my heart skips a beat or two. We all know what is at stake here.


            • lorac says:

              I think older folks may be less attracted to the huge rock-star events that Trump has – some are standing only, including standing a long time waiting for the event to even begin. Even the ones with chairs, I’m sure there’s a huge standing line waiting to get in.


  5. archer52 says:

    President, VP Surgeon General- sweep the field.


  6. Centinel2012 says:

    Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:

    The GOPe is very worried at this point since nothing they have done has hurt Trump he is still at the top and their guys are at the bottom. There are three issues National security (border and Muslims), Jobs (the new world order) and the Corrupt political class Relative Morals and the forming oligarchy). The working class (the 90% or the vulgarians) know in their heart that they are being screwed by the elites and see Trump as their last hope to return to a sane world. If he doesn’t change his message he will win.

    Liked by 6 people

    • margarite1 says:

      The thing is that Trump keeps being proven absolutely right. The things he’s been warning about are coming true …alarmingly!! Nothing else matters if we’re not safe and Trump has the guts to do what needs to be done.

      I wish the election were now. Zero has too much time left to “fundamentally” destroy the once great USA.


  7. michellc says:

    If this is the same poll I was polled in it was all automated. Although they may switch the order around, in my case the order was Carson, Cruz, Bush, Rubio, Huckabee, Trump. Can’t say after that because I pushed 6 for Trump. The one I participated in also asked about state offices and what was the most important issue for Oklahoma, immigration wasn’t on the list, so I pushed the number for “other” issue.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Nessie509 says:

    The poll finds that 39% of Democratic Party voters will probably not vote for Hillary. Fits right in to Trumps demographic profile. He appeals to a wide swath of Democrats and Republicans and Independents. The uniparty in DC realizes this and so Trump must be destroyed.

    Liked by 3 people

  9. Sentient says:

    Interesting that Rubio has NO supporters in the 18-34 range. None. And little support in the 35-49 range. His support is almost entirely 50+. Carson’s support is also heavily older folks and women (who probably prefer his “tone”). Church ladies.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. don welch says:

    i hate to pee in the punch bowl but as it stands now and what will probably transpire in the coming months, trump will not get the gop nod. he just won’t and i think he knows it. when hillary rodham diane clinton is elected potus in just one year, all the machinations of obama, peace be upon him, will bubble to the top of the cesspool. death by a thousand cuts.


    • judyw says:

      It’s your punch bowl. Have at it! Everyone if free to think for themselves…at least for today and on this website!

      Liked by 4 people

    • JRD says:

      Thank you for your concern but Trump is winning this.

      Liked by 6 people

    • Pee in your own punch bowl. Leave mine alone it’s a TRUMP BOWL

      Liked by 4 people

      • CountryclassVulgarian says:

        I second that. Leave my punch bowl alone…


        • NCPatrick says:

          Yeah baby! My punch bowl is doing fine! Yesterday I was shopping at a Bed Bath & Beyond store wearing my Trump sweatshirt. I heard a voice behind me at the checkout counter, and turned to see an older couple waiting .. he said, “\where’d you get that shirt?” Me: ” I ordered it .. Trump is my man and nobody else is even under consideration!” Guy said, “yup, me too.”

          I noted that his wife had a frowny face on, and don’t know if she was ticked off that her hubby was talking to a strange woman or expressing his approval of Trump. Ha! Loved being a walking billboard for the next President!


  11. Athena the Warrior says:

    From LC, she said she received this donation letter from Cruz/Breitbart. Why is Breitbart acting as a fundraising tool for Ted Cruz?

    Liked by 1 person

  12. Ursula says:

    Donald Trump is in it to win, he can do write in ballots if the GOPe wins at their scheme .


  13. Sentient says:

    It’s too bad this doesn’t show 2nd choice. Carson could be out before Oklahoma’s March 1 closed primary. Probably not, since he could do reasonably well in IA, SC and NV. I can’t see Cruz or Rubio getting out early. Rubio is a GOPe plant and Cruz has delusions of adequacy.

    Liked by 2 people

  14. Sentient says:

    Carson’s church lady supporters won’t be swayed by his total ignorance of, disinterest in and inability to learn about foreign policy. The only thing that could take him down in their eyes would be some moral lapse (unlikely) or theological faux pas. Do they know he doesn’t believe in hell? Maybe Pastor Cruz should ask Carson at the next debate where he thinks Bin Laden is now.


  15. Martin says:

    Trump’s rally in AL now:


  16. czarowniczy says:

    Remember Spike Jones? First thing I thought of when I saw this post was a Spike piece:

    Liked by 1 person

  17. MVW says:

    Polls are completely unbelievable. Look at the campaign rallies, everywhere, enthusiastic, record crowds, no one else, even Obama at his height got this. Jobs, jobs, jobs is the winning message, just look at the desperate worried folks in Iowa whose jobs are working for a windmill company with oil at $40 a barrel. GOPe’s and UniDems have broken the spirit of the American worker with their corrupt, insanely stupid policies. And Mr. and Mrs. BlueCollar are truly frightened and desperate for hope and renewed trust.

    Tie everything to jobs, jobs, jobs. Security, illegal immigration, companies leaving the US, $20 trillion debt…..etc.

    Liked by 4 people

  18. Doodahdaze says:

    If Cruz gets the nomination he will lose, period. This would suit the establishment just fine. They could blame the loss on the hated Tea Party and conservatives. Why in the world anyone can not see this is beyond me.

    Liked by 1 person

    • JRD says:

      The Donald is winning this!

      There is no doubt in my mind.

      It is impossible for the establishment to stop this Trump tsunami.

      The support Trump has is California is mind boggling. A place where the RINO candidate always wins in the GOP primary.

      You want to know what The Donald’s biggest asset is: All the low information voters that love and watch the Apprentice will finally be on our side.

      What a kick in the gut for the corrupt establishments in both parties.

      Liked by 3 people

      • Doodahdaze says:

        The Crazycrats want to let in all the Muzz and let them run wild. I doubt that is going to sell. At 65k a copy out of our pockets. Uhhhh No thanks Crazycrats.


  19. 240grjhp says:

    BreitBart is using email address’s from their newsletter subscriptions to send out Cruz donation letters. If you get one (Like me) forward it to Trump’s campaign manager and mark as spam. GFY BB you really dropped a lot in my book.

    Liked by 2 people

    • don welch says:

      basically, brietbart was a liberal guy with grit. the site tries to be balanced but it bleeds through. you can bet your bippy that they would rather see hillary than trump.


    • Trumped says:

      Guess what, if you stop avoid them for a week they might fear loosing you reading them for the B.S. they pulled.

      “alternative” media can be worse then msm tv. Wouldnt wonder if someone paid overpaid bucks for the breitbart database.


  20. ohour1 says:

    Totally redone #Trump thanks for the input !!


  21. don welch says:

    six of these yooyoos should be dropping out this weekend. the fix is in.


  22. TheLastDemocrat says:

    When either Cruz or Rubio drops out, a lot of that crowd will break for Trump.
    A lot of dems will go for Trump.

    Once Trump seems inevitable, the GOPe may strive to get him to agree to their VP, plus some important positions – so they will neuter him by surrounding him with The Machine. So, I believe he needs to avoid Rubio or Cruz as VP. He should also inform the voters when he makes his VP choice: he should say that, while the GOP establishment overall are handsome and smell good, there is a heavy influence of purely Wall-Street motivation sell-out. And, he should point to massive-immigration support and TTP trade as the proof. Then, explain that for the sake of the GOP he and others love, he has to structurally get the Wall Street out. –I see this as a do-or-die mission.

    In the general election, a lot of people do not know much, and don’t decide until late in the game. this bunch may easily buy some of the Hiraly sales pitch, and Donald can be portrayed as a novelty act.

    DT will need to be ready to highlight the Wall Street political machine as the enemy, and will need to find a way to weaken some of the imminent Hiraly support by somehow pinning scandalous behavior on her.


    • rodney says:

      Cruz cannot be part of a Trump administration, he is untrustworthy because of his need for PAC money to survive politically. In general career GOP pols should be avoided for the same reason, they’re compromised. Sessions would be my top pick for VP.


    • Trust No One says:

      I’ve been thinking the same thing. Watch out when the E starts to try to cozy up to Trump. They’ll be moving for the capture. I have to believe Trump is smart enough to know this and be able to recognize it for what it will be – total WS, globalist entrapment.

      And when it begins to happen, I’m also believe Sundance will sound the alert. 🙂


  23. This is Yuge. Oklahoma is big time Evangelical. State that Rick Santorum won in 2012 and the guy that the press said couldn’t quote scripture or never asked God for forgiveness is beating Carson.


  24. ohour1 says:

    1)Obama invaded Libya arming and using rebels and removed Gaddaffi.
    He then toppled Egypt
    Then backfired in Syria with Bashar Assad
    He Dropped millions of rounds and Weapons to Rebels who were ISIS Jihadists

    They Were seen in several videos picking up care packages with ISIS flagged trucks

    2) Power vacuum caused beast known as ISIS to grow
    3) ISIS then caused Refugee crisis
    Conclusion: A democrat president created the refugee crisis and allowed it to become a underground jihad railroad.

    Obama and Hillary and John Kerry have:
    funded terrorists
    bombing hospitals and civilians
    negotiating with terrorists
    freeing ISIS members from prison
    Allowing Syrians to cross the mexican border 13 caught in 24 hours after paris attack
    Jihadists now move globally under the guise of Refugee Status

    Since Obama Several Attacks By Radicals Have Succeeded
    Boston Bombers
    Fort Hood (2009)

    Obama Fired Senior Terrorism Experts Putting Ego Over Safety

    Lets all Watch the Liberals Blame Bush for 7 Years Of Failure

    Never Mind the sources of information Just name call and act foolish and post meme’s

    We all sit and wait for the First Refugee Terrorist to attack
    Its Just a matter of time

    Tick Tock Tick Tock

    This is the Obama Timeline Concerning ISIS


  25. runthetable says:

    I can’t wait to watch how Trump pulls off the wins on his way to POTUS

    Liked by 1 person

  26. Doodahdaze says:

    The truth about the Crazycrats. The fear white people more than ISIS.
    Dallas Mayor ‘More Fearful’ of White Men Committing Mass Shootings Than Syrian Refugees in U.S.


    • Doodahdaze says:

      I am more fearful of large gatherings of young white men that come into schools, theaters and shoot people up,” he said. “But we don’t isolate young white men on this issue.”


  27. varangia says:

    Got to keep an eye on sneaky Cruz. He already stole some of Carson’s supporters.


  28. archer52 says:

    HRC cannot be President, if for nothing else but this one person; Huma.

    Right now there appears to be, and I say this with shock and dismay, an internal tribal/religionous conflict going on inside the two democratic leaders’ groups; Valerie Jarrett- an Iranian Shiite and Huma Abedin- a Muslim Brotherhood Sunni.

    We somehow got so screwed up over race, color and gender we allowed Muslims into a position of power and now they are goat (you know what) each other. In America. Jefferson’s America.

    “…There’s been plenty of information on Huma Abedin coming out of the various investigations into Hillary Clinton’s time as Secretary of State. These have ranged from the recent revelation that she had signed and then defied her separation agreement to the earlier finding that the OIG for State had determined there was an embezzlement case against her which Justice later conveniently declined to prosecute. But where was all of that info coming from? That’s what Harry Reid would like to know and he thinks there’s a leak in the system somewhere. (The Hill)…”

    He thinks the Republicans did it. The Republicans have no power to let information slip from the State Department during key moments when it looked like HRC was gaining her footing.

    But Valerie does.

    In a back handed way, Valerie Jarrett may be our best friend right now. Something her Persian ancestors should be familiar with; “An enemy of my enemy is my friend.”


    • Doodahdaze says:

      So we have a Shia, a Sunni, and a Blood, running the country. Sufferin’ Succotash!

      Liked by 3 people

    • NCPatrick says:

      They are all so repulsively corrupt and cheap that I don’t even care .. let that big Trump Tsunami blow all these gasbags back to whatever rock they crawled out from under. They are nothing to me.

      I live for the day Valerie Jarrett and her bffs, the Obama’s, roll their U-Hauls back to Chicago to count their ill gotten gains. It’s been fun, but it’s time to clear the table.


    • “An enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

      Not really. But my enemy’s enemy could be turned into a useful but untrustworthy snitch


  29. Trumped says:

    So who bought the Breitbart email database?
    Cruz campaign directly? or a pac?


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