A new poll from Oklahoma shows what a disconnect there can be when using samples of “likely voters” (full poll data pdf below). Donald Trump leads with 27%, Ted Cruz second with 18.3%, Carson in third with 17.5%, Rubio fourth with 16%.
A tightening field with Cruz gaining from Carson’s slips. While Trump leads with all demographics, genders and age ranges (dominating the youth vote), the internals show Carson and Cruz base is within “very religious” segment of the Oklahoma electorate but only minimally stronger than Donald Trump – which is interesting. Overall Oklahoma looks like a four person race.
If Oklahoma’s March 1 primary elections were held today, 27.1 percent of state Republicans say they would vote for Trump. Clinton controls nearly half of the Democrat primary vote, 46.6 percent, according to the poll.
Trump, who has remained the national GOP front-runner, leads Ted Cruz (18.3 percent), Ben Carson (17.5 percent) and Marco Rubio (16.3 percent) in the state. The rest of the Republican field — Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul and John Kasich — are all in the single digits. Nearly seven percent are undecided and 2.5 percent prefer someone else.
“We had [Trump] leading back in September and he’s still leading to this day,” says Bill Shapard, founder of SoonerPoll.com. “I think it shows the Republican electorate is looking for someone who has not been a politician before. They’re looking for an outsider. They’re looking for ideas.”
Shapard warns a lot can happen between now and election night, especially as candidates drop out of the race and votes shift to others.
“What’s interesting in this poll is that we’ve seen movement among Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. (read more)