MH-370 Back To The Drawing Board – All Prior Search Areas Abandoned, With New Search Area Established 684 Miles Further North East…

On the advice of our primary source you might have noticed we had not updated any information about Malaysian Airlines Flight #370 for several days.

One of the reasons for us standing pat was very insightful intel from a good Treehouse friend who knows more about covert aviation capability than we could ever comprehend.   He advised us three days ago the assumptions would more than likely shift dramatically. Last night that exact situation happened.

malaysia flight 370

The Australian authorities are now saying all satellite imaging (debris field) should be discarded.   In addition they are adjusting the search area 684 miles North and East of the initial search area.   In essence they are back to square one.

Our source predicted exactly that.   Why?

Because he predicted, accurately, they would use “Euclids Element” to begin their analysis:

 Two Things which are equal to another thing must also be equal to one another.

First – the Inmarsat data team used what they called “similar flight data” to establish their distance positions.   Meaning they compared the ‘pings’ rec’d by their satellite to other flights who were in routes of similar disposition.

The flaw in this analysis is the first flawed step: The two things are not equal to each other.   The two flights are not known to be equal to each other in altitude, therefore their comparison to the other thing (the Inmarsat Satellite) is not known to be equivalent.

The difference is in the known vs unknown altitude.

A Boeing 777-ER flight with consistent thrust at 12,000 feet compared to a flight with consistent thrust at 35,000 feet are not equal.   EVEN IF their flight route is the same, their fuel load is the same and their thrust quotient is the same, their altitude makes a big difference.

How big?

A throttle setting at 3/4ths capacity will generate an approximate forward speed of around 300 knots at 12,000 feet altitude.    An identical throttle setting (3/4ths) capacity at 35,000 feet will generate a forward speed of around 475 knots.  The fuel burn is essentially the same but the distance on each liter of fuel is much further at higher altitude.

      • 1 knot = 1.15077945 miles per hour
      • 300 knots = 345.24 MPH
      • 475 knots = 546.62 MPH

The flight time is an assumption of 7.5 hours based on 6 ‘pings’ at 60 minute intervals and the absence of a 7th locating ping.   So the assumption of time of flight is a constant at 7.5 hrs.

      • [12,000 FT]  If you take 7.5 hours X 345.24 MPH = 2,589 miles
      • [35,000 FT] If you take 7.5 hours X 546.62 MPH = 4,100 miles
      • Difference 1,511 miles

So you can see that based on altitude assumptions, in that example alone, the distance possible is 1,511 miles different.

 

Two identical planes, taking off from identical places, following identical paths, and using identical thrust, will run out of fuel almost at the same time.   However, if they are at different altitudes, while they may run out of fuel together, the higher altitude plane will have travelled a much greater distance.

The two things (planes), by being at differing altitudes, are not equal to the third thing (satellite).

The Inmarsat data has no way to identify the altitude of the missing MH-370 flight.

ps. FWIW He still says odds are it went around the Southern tip of India (Maldives) because this due South flight plan just does not make a lick of sense.

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149 Responses to MH-370 Back To The Drawing Board – All Prior Search Areas Abandoned, With New Search Area Established 684 Miles Further North East…

  1. maryfrommarin says:

    “Read me back the last line.”

    Like

  2. jordan2222 says:

    Although I have great compassion for the families and agree they are entitled to know the truth, I am growing weary of the “news” because there nothing factually has changed.. if there ever were any facts aside from the airplane being airborne. Megyn Kelly has bulldogged this from the start and I admire her tenacity but, geesh, there are other things I wish she would highlight during her hour.

    She and Greta are the two of the best in cable news. Their shows have much more news content than opinion. I have heard no one else dare to make such a claim. At least they attempt to keep the concept of hard news alive.

    OT, but has anyone else seen this image of Kelly? Is this meant to show her in a less than professional light?

    https://www.google.com/search?q=Megyn+Kelly&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=com.yahoo:en-US:official&client=firefox&channel=rcs

    Like

    • BigMamaTEA says:

      Yes. That came out more than several years ago. She’s gotten married and had two kids since. She was on at noon or something.

      Like

      • jordan2222 says:

        That photo came from Fox so I guess she is OK with it. Sex sells. It’s just the way things are today.

        December 2010: GQ “Decided She’s Hot.” Kelly defends that her legs are visible from her desk on-air: “Well, it’s a visual business. People want to see the anchor.”

        Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/megyn-kelly-haircut-fox-news-2011-8?op=1#ixzz2xEjmeSjq

        Like

        • Liberty Lawyer says:

          I really like Megyn Kelly in lots of ways. But have no doubt she would throw you under the bus in a NY second in a business situation.

          Like

        • LetJusticePrevail" says:

          I clicked on that pic and got a very interesting list of videos from her interviews. She’s very formidable as an interviewer who refuses to allow her guests to obfuscate or wander off topic. I also learned that she practiced law for nine years (never knew that) so she’s not “just another talking head”.

          Like

  3. doodahdazee says:

    It is The Obama Theorum. They were flying around in circles over the same spot.

    Like

    • John Galt says:

      Bogus debris field snipe hunts. Trying to run out the clock on the flight recorder pinger.

      Like

      • nyetneetot says:

        As I recall, back in the 80’s the Australian’s used to complain about all the trash that would wash up on their coasts. Ships toss all the garbage bags over the side in international waters. A cruse ship in port for a week may stock up all the trash rather than pay the fees. An entire garbage truck or more of trash per week for each ship goes in the ocean. That stuff can float around for years. Lot’s of snipes to hunt out there.

        Like

  4. sundance says:

    Like

  5. Aslan's Girl says:

    Ha! We knew it.
    Proud of Gen. McInerney for sticking to his guns. I’m pretty sure he also said the southern corridor made “no sense” the other day. I loved how he said there was “NO evidence” it went south. I was happy to see Hannity expressing doubt at the official story, too.

    Like

  6. afghanvet18f says:

    And the worm turns…..

    Like

  7. elvischupacabra says:

    I dunno who you source is, but he knows his stuff. The “experts” forget too often that flight is a three dimensional endeavor, affected by any number of factors. No too flights are the same. You can get close, which is the essence of “flight planning,” but all kinds of variables can come into play enroute. That’s why we have holding fuel, diversion alternate fuel and sometimes even additional holding fuel for the alternate, depending on weather.

    The Malaysian pilot essentially threw out the “known” when he stopped squawking, shut down his telemetry systems and went off on his own.

    Like

    • DaneChile says:

      In Navy carrier aviation there was a rule of thumb: fuel for the planned flight plus 20% plus a thousand pounds for the wife and each child.

      Like

    • LetJusticePrevail" says:

      I still haven’t seen any official documentation of the precise amount of fuel carried when EH370 went wheels up. Is there any chance they were “tankering” due to fuel prices in China?

      Like

      • elvischupacabra says:

        The only way to get fuel on board an aircraft is via the Flight Dispatch Release, which is a regulatory document issued by a licensed dispatcher. The dispatcher sends the fuel load to the fueling company, who creates a fuel slip that the aircraft fueler uses. The fuel slip copies go to the captain, to the fuel company and to the airline, which is filed with all of the flight paperwork, another regulatory requirement. No fueling agency will load fuel that they won’t get paid for, so basically, no fuel slip, no fuel.

        Okay, let’s suppose this captain somehow bribed “someone” to give him extra fuel. Well, if it is more than just a bit, the 777 will sense the extra weight and give the captain and (usually) the load planner/dispatcher a “green band” warning. That means the aircraft is either loaded incorrectly or has weight unaccounted for in the weight and balance calculations.

        Now, let’s suppose he dodged all those bullets and was able to take off with extra fuel. This aircraft has to “step climb” at higher weights. That means it cannot just zoom up to full cruising altitude, right away. No, as it burns fuel it gains the ability to climb higher. Since he apparently busted FL42-44 just a couple of hours into the flight, tells me that his fuel on board was X, with that exact number dependent on the zero fuel weight of the aircraft. Zero fuel weight is what is on board – passengers, cargo, snacks, carry-on bags, napkins, water, lavatory fluid and everything else – before fuel is added. So, the maximum fuel load is calculated as the difference between ZFW and MGTOW (max gross take-off weight). So, the fuel you can carry depends directly on the ZFW. That’s why the weight og the cargo is so important. Routinely, fuel is cut back (still inside required safety margins) to extra cargo.

        Finally, I can guarantee someone already audited the KUL fueling agency to check the totals for that day. The weight and balance paperwork and the flight dispatch release have already been dissected. That’s SOP for a missing aircraft.

        So, I think they can determine pretty closely how much fuel was on board.

        Like

        • LetJusticePrevail" says:

          I totally agree with everything you said, but I believe you misunderstood the nature of my question. I’m not suggesting that the Airlines wasn’t aware of the amount of fuel on the plane at take off, or that the pilot (or anyone else) added unnecessary fuel contrary to the wishes of the airline.

          What I was asking is this: Did the airline intentionally load flight EH 370 with far more fuel than was necessary for the normal flight to Beijing (and the additional fuel for safety margins, etc) simply to avoid paying higher fuel costs in Beijing?

          The reason I ask is because many articles discuss the range of the plane based on the amount of fuel it would have carried for a trip to Beijing,but they all seem to ignore the possibility that the airline may have intentionally “tankered” additional fuel as a cost saving measure. (I’ve seen no official statement about the actual amount of fuel on board, have you?)

          Like

          • elvischupacabra says:

            I doubt it, because of the early climb over 40K. Also, some countries (and US cities) forbid your landing with more than a certain amount of fuel, unless you are diverting, early-returning due to a problem or your alternate was your more than a certain distance away. Why? They want to sell you fuel. I *THINK* China is one of these, but I can’t be sure without looking at my Jeppesen.

            Like

  8. @ipersenda says:

    Cannot be that simple, nor as simple as Inmarsat calculations made it to be. Cannot assume that after winding in all sorts of directions so as to avoid radars, it suddenly flew straight AND at average altitude… What do you reckon Inmarsat would say if you asked them: “us’g same calcultn whch locatd #MH370 in Indian Ocn, whr wld you say it was located at 1:21am us’g ONLY pings, no other data?” which I did 2 days ago yet never got an answer… Also prbm with timing as aircraft flew approx. 7hrs and 40 mins total while it only had enough fuel to fly a total of 7 and a half hrs out of KL, at a constant pace. We know it went up to 45,000 ft and then dropped to somewhere btwn 3 and 5,000 ft and changed routes. Hence it must have burnt more fuel than the average aircraft on the average route, at least until it was last spotted by military radars…

    Like

  9. CrankyinAZ says:

    Anyone want to make a guess at who’s helping InmarSat with these calculations?? Anyone?? Anyone at all?? I’m sure you’ll all be shocked… just Shocked!!!

    Like

  10. F.D.R. in Hell says:

    There are more Red Herrings in this story than in a Singapore Fish Market.

    Like

  11. Jesse says:

    My theory is that it landed on the west coast of Africa, lot of little airports there: Tanga, Mogadishu, etc. That route goes right over the Maldives where the plane was sighted.

    Like

  12. radish says:

    They sure know how to scare you with those 122 to 300 objects. Now Japan and Thailand are getting in on the satellite action. It’s one upmanship. You got 122? We got 300! Nya, nya, nya! The problem is the scattered objects don’t look like reflections off raindrops or crashing waves. One authority admits they may not even be objects though. Could they be sea gulls of differing heights and proportions? Flocks of 300. Good Grief, what the hey? A veteran Boeing 777 captain has commented the plane could not be an out-of-control plane going up 45K and then down as low as 5K.

    Which begs the question why a suicidal man would go 7 hours with dead people on flight.

    He uses the term supersonic to describe the plane’s probable descent if the current narrative is correct, breaking apart into pieces and nose diving down once the fuel is depleted. No slow gliding. That being the case, then wouldn’t the ELT be triggered above water? Shah’s son comments on his father too. Read

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/466954/Malaysia-Airlines-MH370-Satellite-images-show-122-objects-scattered-over-debris-field

    It’s not over!

    Like

    • czarowniczy says:

      If you live in/around a port city you know that ships clean their decks and holds by tossing stuff overboard – we have a lot of people who make a hobby of scouring the NOLA and coastal shorelines. How much trash floating around in the search area is from ships tossing stuff overboard as they clean – cheaper than paying a service in port to haul it off. Also, it isn’t unusual for large container ships to lose whole containers overboard, full or empty, when they hit rough seas. There’s a major trash gyre in that area too, and years of accumulated trash of varying sizes resulting from dumping to tsunami debris float around being tossed by winds and waves.

      Like

  13. John Galt says:

    Aircraft fire suppression bottle washed up on the beach in the Maldives. People in Maldives also made prior report of low flying jet.

    http://sandrarose.com/2014/03/could-mystery-object-that-washed-up-on-beach-be-debris-from-missing-malaysia-plane/

    Like

    • John Galt says:

      “ps. FWIW He still says odds are it went around the Southern tip of India (Maldives) because this due South flight plan just does not make a lick of sense.”

      So why won’t they search in Maldives or let Maldives participate in search?

      Like

    • JAS says:

      That sure looks like aircraft debris. Seems the Diego Garcia angle is alive and well. This story has more twists and turns than a mountain burro trail…..

      Like

      • JAS says:

        Local News from the Maldives is reporting that the object was found on Haa Alif atoll Baarah’s southern beach.

        http://minivannews.com/news-in-brief/suspected-explosive-washed-up-on-baarah-beach-80941

        A quick look in Google Earth shows ground swells on the Southern beach from the South East, the wind waves from the NE.

        And more news from an engineer and a pilot at the Maldives:

        http://www.haveeru.com.mv/news/54178

        Like

        • Chip Bennett says:

          Hmm… I bet there’s a serial number on that thing somewhere. Unless all of that abrasive sea water scoured it off in transit. /sarc

          Like

          • mung says:

            Unless someone got the wrong drop point, I am very inclined to think that is the real deal. Too many clues point to it being there.

            We have to ask, what is the evidenced that the plane turned North or South? One shred? But we have people who saw the plane over the Maldives and now we have the most credible debris yet.

            Like

          • JAS says:

            That bottle is probably stainless. it would take a lot of scouring :).

            Here’s strange for you: I remember many years back I was walking on an Island beach in FL and found a, wait for it, half buried in the sand jet turbine, right on the surf line. Everything on it was still shinny, even the electrical wires were clean, no corrosion nor barnacles – it was fresh. I wrote down the serial numbers I found on it and called a local AF base. They told me the numbers were real and that they would send someone out there. The NEXT day, the turbine was GONE. There were no news reports of any crashes anywhere near that area and turbines don’t float. They sure got it out of there on a hurry.

            Like

    • Chip Bennett says:

      Sure doesn’t look like a “naval sea mine” to me. That protrusion is a threaded connector, not a contact sensor – and if it were a a mine, there would be more than one such protrusion.

      Seems that “Halon fire-extinguisher tank” is a near-perfect match for it, though.

      The question is: what’s it doing in the water? Did the plane crash, or has the parts-seeding already taken place? And if the latter: why the obfuscation about the washed-up object?

      Like

      • ctdar says:

        & if part of a plane crash, why is extinguisher intact? If anything like the old time fire extinguisher “balloons” I’ve seen in older homes they are somewhat fragile.

        Like

      • mung says:

        My guess is he crash landed trying to get into the strip he was supposed to land at.

        Yeah, I have never seen a mine made out of polished aluminum. In fact the last thing they want is a mine to be MORE reflective.

        Like

      • JAS says:

        Could be either. The surprising point is that Haa Alif atoll is all the way North in the Maldives, only about 300 miles from the southernmost tip of India. A straight line North West drawn from the last known position of the plane would take it very close to it, and South of India and Sri Lanka. I think I remember early on, the people in the Maldives were saying that the low flying jet they saw was flying to the NW?

        Like

      • carterzest says:

        is Halon still used in aviation? In the power delivery business, we have replaced ALL of our Halon equipment with sapphire gas fire suppression systems which are reportedly much safer than Halon systems. Apparently this is the new industry standard and I can only wonder if it is not the same in the Airline industry? Of course, retrofitting systems in older models may take some time…..
        Anyone know?

        Like

        • mung says:

          I know it is still used in military, but I don’t know about civil.

          Like

            • carterzest says:

              In 1994, halon production ceased in developed countries after scientific evidence suggested that halon contributes to the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer. While potential replacement chemicals have been proposed, none of them meet all of the stringent performance requirements for aviation. As a result, the industry relies on recycled halon to meet current needs. The European Union adopted halon replacement deadlines for airplanes in 2010 while the International Civil Aeronautic Organization (ICAO) established halon replacement deadlines in 2011.

              Like

  14. mung says:

    A couple of observations here. First where the halon bottle was found is almost due West of where the plane would have been if the plane would never have made a turn either North or South. So maybe Inmarsat isn’t as good as they think they are.

    Second, the new search area and projected flight path is even closer to Sumatra and Australia. How is the flight not on RADAR? Totally impossible that it wouldn’t have been picked up.

    Like

  15. onbe says:

    Altitude is not the only consideration.It seems they assume that the auto pilot was on it may not have been. The difference is the auto pilot will keep a heading regardless of winds aloft while not having the auto pilot o n would allow the plane to drift off course .If there was an 80 mile an hour side wind that night and the plane flew for 7 hours the plane would be off course by 560 miles or more.

    Like

    • mung says:

      As I have said since this magic Inmarsat information came out, they made a lot of assumptions and used questionable methods to determine something that they couldn’t possibly have determined. Wonder if their stock will go back down today?

      Like

      • onbe says:

        John Galts link is interesting and there are more articles about the find in the Maldives
        http://www.maldivesfinest.com/mh370-evidence.The plane flying straight over Malaysia
        and on towards the Maldives still makes the most sense.

        Like

        • mung says:

          I have been saying for a while that the Inmarsat data would look the same if the plane never turned at all.

          Like

          • onbe says:

            Yes agreed

            Like

          • LetJusticePrevail" says:

            I have disagreed with you about how the data would appear if the plane would have stayed on a westward heading, and I still do. But that doesn’t rule out the possibility that the plane did go west. What if the Inmarsat data is totally fake? What if they know the plane went to Pakistan, but have been asked to participate in a charade to divert attention while special forces teams plot to either destroy the aircraft, or attempt some sort of “Entebbe” mission?

            Like

  16. Chip Bennett says:

    Maybe this is a dumb question, but: why is the search area at the location of the calculated crash-landing? With the strength of the currents in that part of the ocean, and the time lapse between alleged crash and now, shouldn’t they be searching some thousands of miles away from the suspected crash site?

    Like

    • mung says:

      That close to land wouldn’t something have washed up in Perth by now? Wouldn’t the ships leaving from that area have seen something?

      Like

    • LetJusticePrevail" says:

      I guess it depends on whether the objective is to find floating debris (just to prove the plane did crash), or to find larger pieces (and hopefully a “black box”) that might have sank very quickly.

      Like

    • John Galt says:

      Search area located closer to trash vortex. Easier to find random debris.

      Like

      • Chip Bennett says:

        Isn’t it convenient that the calculated flight path puts the crash site in that location? Even so, from what I can tell, the currents in that area are generally counter-clockwise, so the debris would have moved north – and probably west – of the crash site. Is anyone even asking the question?

        Like

    • sundance says:

      It appears the analysts are *halving* the unknown variables to determine end point.

      Like

  17. Susan M. says:

    Why has Pakistan/Iran landing been ruled out? Why has the President of the US gone silent on the subject? Was his Nuclear bomb over Manhattan a slip of the tongue? He and ValJar seem to have a perfect motive to stash a plane in her Home Country. Why is this not a Possibility?

    Like

  18. JAS says:

    A couple of better images from the Maldives:

    Like

    • Chip Bennett says:

      Okay, now I don’t know what to think, because those pictures do look like a mine.

      Like

      • JAS says:

        I think I can also some rust – bad for this thing being recent. CNN is reporting now that 5 planes spotted and photographed debris in the new search area. Photos are being analyzed overnight.

        Like

      • Polk8dot says:

        To me there is no doubt that this is truly an aircraft fire suppression bottle. See the pics for comparison:
        http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bjo64JaIQAAzLAn.jpg:medium

        Also, according to Boeing, these bottles are still being used in their aircraft.

        I guess the question then remains – where did this bottle come from? Is it from the MH370? Kind of does not compute for me – there should be still at least remnants of wiring attached to it, if not belts or bolts or even parts of caging. I think it makes more sense that the bottle is either from unrelated ‘event’ or result of ‘debris-seeding’.

        Like

    • JAS says:

      Reportedly, another better image. This one shows some markings:

      http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bjq4G4tCYAACySF.jpg:large

      Like

      • LetJusticePrevail" says:

        That image should be enough for someone to identify this thing.Whether it is a halon bottle, or some type of mine.

        Like

        • hoonan says:

          Having only experience with shipboard HALON systems I can’t say whether it’s a HALON bottle or not. But if I was told it is or might be one, my interest in fixed fire suppression systems does allow me to make observations on it. From the images I can only suggest that if it is a HALON “bottle” , it looks like it has to ports with the “top” having an electric solenoid operated discharge,the parts with the screws looks like mounting points and they don’t appear damaged as in broken off during a crash, on the actuator, the wires could be cut or torn I dunno, with the sand on it in the pic in the way can’t tell if the discharge line is snapped or not.

          So if no signs of damage it can fit the theories of hijacking and then plane either found and destroyed and parts floated as a cover up, or taken to remote area and lightened up for a suicide mission.

          Or the bottle not even from 370 and just maybe defective bottle tossed overboard from a Navy ship.

          If broken off fits to more of a crash….but from what I see looks like more of a removed piece of equipment…

          Like

    • JAS says:

      Some people are now speculating that the “Halon bottle” might be from a B1-B Bomber that crashed in 2001 in the Indian Ocean after takeoff, 30 miles from Diego Garcia:

      http://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/dec/12/afghanistan3

      Like

  19. Judy says:

    Just wanted to say thank you for staying on top of things. I finally caught up on the Trifecta video you posted not long ago, where Bill Whitley talks about the difference altitude makes, confirming what’s now being reported.

    Like

  20. LetJusticePrevail" says:

    Imagine yourself in the position of the people “in command” or with the +ability and authority to act” who became privy to this information:

    1) A plane with 239 living people has been hijacked

    2) That plane has an effective range of over 7,000 miles and has been stolen by terrorists who might have access to a nuclear device, but definitely have the means to amass large amounts of high explosives and chemical weapons

    3) That plane has been taken to a location controlled by the terrorists, but is in a country that will not allow foreign troops on its soil, no matter their mission. This country has already disavowed any knowledge of the whereabouts of the plane.

    4) The “host” country has plausible deniability over whatever actions the terrorists take, since the terrorists do not claim to act on behalf of any national interest, and the “host” country does not “officially” support whatever cause that motivates these terrorists Much of the regional unrest can be traced back to terrorists who originate from, assemble in, and possibly even train in the host nation.

    5) That “host” nation has nuclear weapons

    6) The host nation isn’t taking any action, leaving the matter up to you, but will not provide support for any type of rescue or “search and destroy” mission. What would you do?

    If you announce your knowledge to the international community, and even provide proof of it, the crew and passengers could be slaughtered, leaving you with tremendous political fallout.

    If you announce your knowledge of the matter, and undertake an overt mission to rescue the passengers (or disarm the plane) the passengers will certainly be placed in greater danger, AND you risk sparking another war, this time with a nation that could detonate a nuclear device and devastate any naval fleet assembled to support or host your mission.

    If you announce your knowledge, but do nothing you appear weak and indecisive in the eyes of the international community (including your enemies and your allies)

    If you intend to take some covert action, such as a quick, precision raid, you must maintain secrecy about your knowledge of the situation, and obfuscate the matter as much as possible. Diversions need to be employed. Distractions must be provided. Disinformation must be trickled out at a rate that is both believable and sufficient to prevent panic among the public, and allay suspicions by the terrorists and host nation that you’re aware of their plot. No direct,positive proof of a crash can ever be released, because the hijackers will know it is a lie and suspect your intentions. Not only that, but they could release proof of your lie (in the form of living hostages) that will completely discredit you.

    No,stealth is essential while you secretly amass the assets necessary to complete a successful “Entebbe” type raid. If you succeed, the benefits will be great, especially in terms perceived military capability and increased political clout. You could claim “We are the people who ended this terrorist plot” even if the passengers die. “It was a horrible price to pay, but weighed against the potential loss of life, it was necessary. History will support us for this decision, no matter how terrible it was.”

    If you suffer an “Operation Eagle Claw” type of failure, you’re credibility as leaders is entirely gone. (Just look what happened to Jimmy Carter) At this point It doesn’t matter how many terrorist leaders have been taken out by special ops forces or drones under your command. In the world of global “pissing contests” you’re only remembered for the outcome of the last contest. Even the strongest lions eventually weaken with age and are replaced by younger challengers.

    So the question is, would you “go for the brass ring” and risk the ignominy of defeat, or would you simply take no action, other than to passively let it appear that the Indian Ocean has swallowed up an errant plane that will never be found?

    Are you principled men who are willing to risk political failure to do the “right” thing, or are you more concerned with maintaining the status quo?

    Like

    • auscitizenmom says:

      Well, the answer is, the most important thing is the political. And, since our (socalled) Prez is all politics, all the time, I don’t have much hope.

      Like

    • radish says:

      WIIFM. Certainly not 239 passengers. But maybe they should get concerned, because it could be them or their families next.

      Like

      • LetJusticePrevail" says:

        My feelings are that the politicians place no intrinsic value on the lives of the passengers or crew. In reality those lives only have value to the degree that their rescue can be claimed as an achievement, resulting in political bragging rights, or to the degree that their deaths can be used as an indictment against whomever can’t avoid the pointing of fingers. (Though I’m sure that certain people will find other useful purposes for this “crisis” in flight security, and clamp down on travel, etc.)

        Like

  21. czarowniczy says:

    JUST IN! Exclusive video of the crack Malaysian officials analyzing the data on Flight 370.

    Like

    • radish says:

      Very apt

      Like

    • doodahdazee says:

      Obamacare Navigators.

      Like

    • “Australian officials said they turned away from the old search area, which they had combed for a week, because a new analysis of radar data suggests the plane had flown faster and therefore ran out of fuel more quickly than previously estimated. The new area is closer to land and has calmer weather than the old one, which will make searching easier.”
      “He said the new search zone, being about 434 miles closer to mainland Australia, will be easier to reach. Planes used so much fuel getting to and from the old search area that had only about two hours of spotting time per sortie.”

      Hey! I have an idea…..move the search 1200 miles to the east! Dry land, can search from Land Rovers, fourwheelers, horseback etc. No ocean currents or deep ocean trenches to deal with and can search ALL day!!!

      Like

      • auscitizenmom says:

        What a great idea. Why didn’t you suggest this a lot earlier. 😯

        Like

      • czarowniczy says:

        They gots plenty of time and space to play with. That trash gyre in the Indian Ocean runs from western Australia (coincidentally around Perth) up to India, down to the Antarctic and east to Africa. They be havin’ lotsa area and potential ‘finds’ to dangle in front of the public for a looooooong time.

        Like

        • You have that right Czar, but I’m sure that in cooperation with Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, the Sierra Club et al, ad nauseum they no doubt have several garbage scows in tow and are collecting said debris for proper recycling and disposal (not in landfills of course). Can you even IMAGINE the carbon footprint and subsequent addition to global warming this refuse is causing!!! Why it ever took a tradgedy like this to clean up this mess is beyond me! Couldn’t they have “floating garbage collection platforms” anchored in all the world’s oceans where ships can properly dispose of their waste? I am going to petition the UN and see about getting something done about it!!! Anyone from Houston here? I’ll bet Sheila Jackson Lee would take up the cause!!!

          Like

          • czarowniczy says:

            Give a hoot – don’t pollute. I wouldn’t put anyone from the UN out on any ocean – we have enough trash to deal with out there now.

            Like

            • Good point. I guess we should just leave them in NYC which IS a garbage collection point already……..LOL …. Damn!….sorry folks….any more, if one doesn’t turn to humor or cynicism a guy could go NUTS with the insanity that surrounds us daily. I truly pray for the families involved in this “mystery”…..believe me….I would MUCH rather return to the days when the “threat” was the “English” invasion…no not 1812…but 1960’s…. Beatles, Rolling Stones etc.
              Thank GOD though for this blog and all who make up it’s “branches”.

              Like

              • czarowniczy says:

                They built an alternate dump site in Vienna where they could run to if the people in NYC ever came to their senses and broomed them into the East River. City couldn’t keep dumping garbage and sewerage in the East River forever – so the Rockefellers donated this nice site at Turtle Bay so it could be stored on land.

                Like

  22. radish says:

    The odds of quickly resolving the mystery of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 via either satellite imagery or related data remain long if not impossible, say analysts.

    “Satellite imagery is really only of potential use if the search is for debris somewhere in the ocean,” said Weeden. “ Satellite imagery is often not a precise science, particularly when you don’t know what you’re looking for. All you can really [hope for] are blobs that may be something; and if they are something, [they] may not be correlated to the missing aircraft.”

    This means satellites are useless on land when searching for a plane under trees and camouflage.

    If so, this isn’t the first time Iran has a hand at hijacking a plane — Lockerbie, which was obfuscated back then but crowdsourcing today is hindering Iran’s efforts to duplicate a revised mission.

    The Lockerbie bombing was ordered by Iran and carried out by a Syrian-based terrorist group, a former Iranian intelligence officer has admitted.

    The Lockerbie bombing was ordered by Iran and carried out by a Syrian-based terrorist group, a former Iranian intelligence officer has admitted.

    Abolghassem Mesbahi, a defector to Germany, said Pan Am flight 103 was downed in 1988 in retaliation for a US Navy strike on an Iranian commercial jet six months earlier, in which 290 people died.

    Links below.

    Like

    • CrankyinAZ says:

      Oh this is crap…. Sorry. I worked with aerial photography … and most of it not as precise as the satellite imagery available today. It was amazing the things you could see in those photos… And we were just looking for agricultural land use and water use.

      It would be difficult – I grant you… because the ocean is so vast… you would need a LOT of people to look at the pictures. People who know what to look for. But it is not impossible to find floating debris. You can’t verify that it belongs to MH370 of course… but you can find debris!

      Like

      • radish says:

        I think what the source is saying is that the satellite is rotating and only visits an area within a cycle and this assuming clouds are not in the way.

        High resolution electro-optical satellites in low-Earth orbits can detect objects that are about 50 centimeters by 50 centimeters or larger in daylight, says Brett Biddington, a longtime space and cyber security consultant, based in Canberra, Australia. That is, when the imaging areas are clear and free of clouds.

        Biddington says satellites that collect electronic signals, almost certainly will not have been tasked in advance to pay any special attention to the search areas of interest.

        Yet Weeden says the area being searched is just too vast to hold out much hope. He notes that a single satellite in low-Earth orbit is only over a particular spot for a couple of minutes at most and then only makes such scanning passes once per day or once every couple of days.

        Although Weeden says the U.S. has the best such imagery, many of its military satellites wouldn’t be tasked for such searches.

        With the caveat repeated that countries are not willing to reveal their best satellite capabilities, which goes back to what LJP says above about political motivation.

        Like

        • CrankyinAZ says:

          All of that… is unfortunately true. Now.. IF… IF … they would put their satellites in the correct places… use the right types/filters… etc. (Satellites deal with clouds all the time) They would be able to find this wreckage and debris… well IF it were there to be found. All of this reluctance to even put a puny effort forth makes me reluctant to believe their story… if you know what I mean.

          Like

  23. mung says:

    Unbelievable, I have idiots arguing with me that Australia’s RADAR can’t see past their coast even after I gave them the specs of Jindalee.

    Like

    • carterzest says:

      Did you see my question above about Halon?

      Like

      • LetJusticePrevail" says:

        If a Halon system was replaced, does that mean the containers would be changed,or simply refilled with a different gas?

        Like

        • carterzest says:

          ours were replaced all together as the tank size considerations were quite different for the new gas. Not sure about what they would do in a airplane at high altitude. If they are also using Sapphire Gas, it can be transported as a liquid. From this article/spec sheet, it looks like it can be used in aviation, military and civil, applications.
          https://www.tycoemea.com/English/Products/Extinguishing/sapphire.asp
          Hopefully a knowledgable treeper pilot can help us out. I would think that the 777 class would have the best and latest technology…

          Like

          • carterzest says:

            I posted this up a ways in this thread:
            http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/articles/2011_q4/3/

            In 1994, halon production ceased in developed countries after scientific evidence suggested that halon contributes to the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer. While potential replacement chemicals have been proposed, none of them meet all of the stringent performance requirements for aviation. As a result, the industry relies on recycled halon to meet current needs. The European Union adopted halon replacement deadlines for airplanes in 2010 while the International Civil Aeronautic Organization (ICAO) established halon replacement deadlines in 2011.

            Like

            • LetJusticePrevail" says:

              Scroll down to figure 1:

              REQUIREMENT LAVATORY HANDHELD PROPULSION/
              AUXILIARY POWER UNIT CARGO
              New Design (New Type Certification Application) European Commission Cutoff Date 2011 2014 2014 2018
              International Civil Aviation Organization 2011 2016 2014 N/A
              Underwriters Laboratories Standard N/A 2014 N/A N/A
              Current Production European Commission End Date* 2020 2025 2040 2040
              International Civil Aviation Organization 2011 2016 N/A N/A
              Underwriters Laboratories Standard N/A 2014 N/A N/A
              * Includes retrofit with non-halon agent

              Seems that these replacements will not be completed for quite some time

              Like

  24. sundance says:

    Our source predicted the analysts would “halve” the possible altitude difference.

    Meaning their comparable flight is known at 36,000 feet altitude. MH-370 is at unknown altitude in general -but known to be 12,000 ft (via sketchy radar) at a particular point near the Andaman Islands-…. or so they are assuming.

    Given the extreme variables in possible distance by altitude, the next step to reconcile the disparity within Euclids Element would be to halve the possible disparity.

    Known 36,000 feet
    Unknown 12,000 feet (radar assumption)

    Halving the difference gives you 24,000 feet. Halving the difference in possible distance based on altitude gives you around 700 miles +/- Hence the new search area shift.

    These are probabilities and nothing more. Sketchy probabilities also because they are based on assumptions. Within the assumptions small changes can result in exceptionally significant outputs.

    Like

    • mung says:

      And wobbly satellites.

      Like

    • czarowniczy says:

      And if they were fighting winds (which can and do vary in direction and speed) at different altitudes. How was the aircraft trimmed? So many variables, so much obfuscation.

      Like

      • LetJusticePrevail" says:

        Oh, you are quite right about wind direction and wind speed varying with altitude. I’ve seen entire loads of skydivers miss a DZ by miscalculating the “spot” based on incorrect information about upper level winds.(my best bud has a titanium rod in his right femur from a spiral fracture he received on that load.) On another load a guy wound up in a set of power lines. He didn’t come out of that one too well. Another time a few friends wound up landing in a High School football field a couple of miles away.Luckily, there was no practice scheduled that day!

        Like

        • czarowniczy says:

          Gets even worse when you go out the door en masse with about a hundred pounds or more of crap strapped to your body. You develop a keen sense of ‘the experts say you’re supposed to land over there’ vice where Mother Nature ultimately deposits you. What goes up must come down – just not where one expected it to.

          Like

  25. doodahdazee says:

    No matter what. This has nothing at all to do with the Gay Rights in Maylasia. Not a thing. Does not exist.

    Like

  26. czarowniczy says:

    OK beer bet. Anyone wanna start a pool on when the Malaysians announce they have satellite and radar data conclusively proving they’ve found Judge Crater and/or Jimmy Hoffa?

    Like

    • mung says:

      Do they have a satellite over Giant’s stadium?

      Like

      • czarowniczy says:

        Giants Stadium? Oh, you mean the Washington Heights Polo Grounds?

        Like

        • mung says:

          I thought he was supposed to be in the endzone of the Meadowlands.

          Like

          • czarowniczy says:

            I was referring to my still thinking of them as the New York Giants and not the (ugh, can hardly say the word) San Francisco Giants. They used to play at the Polo Grounds in Harlem (can you imagine that?), my (sniff) Brooklyn Bums. Just can’t bring myself to call them the San Francisco Bums (shudder) – a whole nuther concept.

            Like

            • jordan2222 says:

              Different game.. different league.. different days.. People loved baseball for the game it once was., We were interested in their stats and how they played the game.. not their bedroom conquests… Mickey Mantle made $100,000 at the end of his career, IIRC. Some 20 year old kid,, Mike Trout.. just signed for $144.5 million for 6 years. A couple guys get over 20 million per year. I doubt that one dollar bleacher seats will pay those salaries.

              I remember a common saying when I was growing up, “nothing is bigger than baseball.” It could end any political discussion instantly but it was invoked often to change the subject.. ANY subject.

              Like

              • czarowniczy says:

                Ahhhh – the days when we’d be able to take the commuter trains from small town Connecticut right into NYC then the subway/buses (WHEN YOU COULD ACTUALLY RIDE THEM WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF SAFETY) right to the field. Ancient history.

                Like

                • jordan2222 says:

                  Our most prized possessions were our collections of baseball cards, comic books and marbles.. a source of great national pride, the trading of which required shrewd negotiation skills and prepared us for life.

                  How is NOLA these days?

                  Like

                • czarowniczy says:

                  I still have my Whitey Ford mitt. NOLA’s just as crooked, about as dangerous and has lost a lot of the marvelous little food stores that really made this place food heaven. The Creole and neighborhood is losing ground to East and Worst Coast food with ‘creole seasoning’ thrown on it but there’s plenty of great food if you look for it – lots of microbreweries too and you can still drink while walking on the street.

                  Like

                • jordan2222 says:

                  My favorite in the quarter was the Central Grocery Store.. home of the best and the original muffulettas

                  Like

                • czarowniczy says:

                  Oh yeah. I recommend it to tourists. A few beers, a muffaletta and you all go up to sit on the Moon Walk, eat lunch and watch the ships go by. Note to the uninitiated: the olive salad on a mufaletta can have a certain..laxative…effect – but it’s great.

                  Like

  27. mung says:

    So it is daylight and they are flying over there surely they have found something now right? Huh? No? Nothing? Well I am sure eventually they will find a new area to search because the they used an even newer math to determine that the other math was wrong.

    Like

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