On the advice of our primary source you might have noticed we had not updated any information about Malaysian Airlines Flight #370 for several days.
One of the reasons for us standing pat was very insightful intel from a good Treehouse friend who knows more about covert aviation capability than we could ever comprehend. He advised us three days ago the assumptions would more than likely shift dramatically. Last night that exact situation happened.
The Australian authorities are now saying all satellite imaging (debris field) should be discarded. In addition they are adjusting the search area 684 miles North and East of the initial search area. In essence they are back to square one.
Our source predicted exactly that. Why?
Because he predicted, accurately, they would use “Euclids Element” to begin their analysis:
Two Things which are equal to another thing must also be equal to one another.
First – the Inmarsat data team used what they called “similar flight data” to establish their distance positions. Meaning they compared the ‘pings’ rec’d by their satellite to other flights who were in routes of similar disposition.
The flaw in this analysis is the first flawed step: The two things are not equal to each other. The two flights are not known to be equal to each other in altitude, therefore their comparison to the other thing (the Inmarsat Satellite) is not known to be equivalent.
The difference is in the known vs unknown altitude.
A Boeing 777-ER flight with consistent thrust at 12,000 feet compared to a flight with consistent thrust at 35,000 feet are not equal. EVEN IF their flight route is the same, their fuel load is the same and their thrust quotient is the same, their altitude makes a big difference.
A throttle setting at 3/4ths capacity will generate an approximate forward speed of around 300 knots at 12,000 feet altitude. An identical throttle setting (3/4ths) capacity at 35,000 feet will generate a forward speed of around 475 knots. The fuel burn is essentially the same but the distance on each liter of fuel is much further at higher altitude.
- 1 knot = 1.15077945 miles per hour
- 300 knots = 345.24 MPH
- 475 knots = 546.62 MPH
The flight time is an assumption of 7.5 hours based on 6 ‘pings’ at 60 minute intervals and the absence of a 7th locating ping. So the assumption of time of flight is a constant at 7.5 hrs.
- [12,000 FT] If you take 7.5 hours X 345.24 MPH = 2,589 miles
- [35,000 FT] If you take 7.5 hours X 546.62 MPH = 4,100 miles
- Difference 1,511 miles
So you can see that based on altitude assumptions, in that example alone, the distance possible is 1,511 miles different.
Two identical planes, taking off from identical places, following identical paths, and using identical thrust, will run out of fuel almost at the same time. However, if they are at different altitudes, while they may run out of fuel together, the higher altitude plane will have travelled a much greater distance.
The two things (planes), by being at differing altitudes, are not equal to the third thing (satellite).
The Inmarsat data has no way to identify the altitude of the missing MH-370 flight.
ps. FWIW He still says odds are it went around the Southern tip of India (Maldives) because this due South flight plan just does not make a lick of sense.