[Update – Full Poll Data Added] The very first public poll of Oregon voters ( Poll pdf added ) shows Donald Trump with a substantial lead over Ted Cruz and John Kasich.
Political followers will note, Oregon was one of the states Ted Cruz said he would concede to John Kasich (New Mexico the other) if Kasich pulled out of Indiana as part of their collective Stop Trump strategy. However, Team Kasich is now calling Cruz a liar as part of that agreement doesn’t seem to fit with their actual campaign discussions.
[Via OPB.Org] […] The poll by the Portland-based Hoffman Research Group shows 43 percent support Trump. Twenty-six percent favor Cruz and 17 percent back John Kasich. It is the first public poll of the Republican presidential race in Oregon this year.
Cruz has agreed not to campaign in Oregon and New Mexico in exchange for Kasich pulling out of Indiana. The two are trying to prevent Trump from getting a majority of delegates in advance of the convention. Each hopes to win in a multi-ballot convention. (read more)
Here’s the full poll data set:
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Adding to this latest data from Oregon, the New York Times has now caught on to what we had outlined in our post election night debrief: Indiana is not that important for Trump, but critical for Ted Cruz. See: “Donald Trump Doesn’t Need Indiana Anymore“.
A series of predictable events are beginning to solidify the ‘inevitability factor’ for candidate Donald Trump, as outlined in the NYT article above.
In combination with the massive lead in votes and delegates, Indiana voters are quite turned off by the games and shenanigans of the Cruz campaign. Again, it goes back to the “authenticity aspect”. The more the electorate get to see Ted Cruz the more they come to realize he is willing to do anything, say anything, and be anything just to get elected.
Even those who did not support Trump initially appreciate his brutal honesty and willingness to present a take-it-or-leave-it candidacy. Bloomberg has an outline showing how increasingly damaged the Cruz and Kasich bid has become in Indiana:
Bloomberg On The Ground – […] Much like the men and women at the fairgrounds, the voters of Indiana don’t seem to be on board with the imperatives of the political moment. The race here is shaping up to be a last stand not just for Cruz, but also for the “stop Trump” movement, an unlikely confederation of activists and party donors.
But, from members of the donor class in Indianapolis unwilling to back Cruz to blue-collar voters in Elkhart outraged by the collaboration, the movement is not coalescing, and is even backfiring.
“People who were supporting Kasich have been coming into the office to pick up Trump signs,” said Laura Campbell, Republican chairwoman of Hamilton County, whose residents earn more money than anyone else in the state. “People are not happy here with that alliance.”
Cruz, trailing in the polls, has a week to change minds before Indiana’s primary on May 3. He’s been campaigning in the state for several days, and on Wednesday announced Carly Fiorina, the former chief executive officer for Hewlett Packard, as his running mate. The move was aimed at injecting some energy and interest in the race at a crucial moment. (read more)
