Good News – Overnight Erika collapsed.  It is no longer a Tropical Storm, and does not appear to hold enough of an ability to reformulate.
erika 4update-1CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK – At 930 AM EDT (1330 UTC), the remnants of Erika were estimated near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.9 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the remnants expected to move near the coast of eastern and central Cuba today and tonight and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
—————————– Previously ————————–
We have numerous Treepers in/around Florida.  Unfortunately, overnight Tropical Storm Erika lost some structural organization.  The lack of organization means a Westerly drift prior to re-organization.  This means Florida is now in the cone of high probability for a landfall storm. update-1 
erika 3

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
estimated near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 73.9 West. Erika is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward
speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of
Erika will move near eastern Cuba this afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast and Erika could become a tropical depression
later today. It is also possible that Erika could degenerate into a
trough of low pressure later today while it moves over the high
terrain of eastern Cuba.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

 
8:00pm storm track pushes further WEST
Erika 2

The broad circulation of Erika is gradually moving inland over
Haiti, and at 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm
Erika was estimated near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 72.0 West.
Erika is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h).  A turn
toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected tonight, with
this motion continuing with a decrease in forward speed through
Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over
western Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave early Saturday, and will be
near extreme eastern Cuba or the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday
night.
Maximum sustained winds are now 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Erika is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday,
but there is a good possibility that Erika could even degenerate
into a trough of low pressure while it is moving over the high
terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.  Barahona in the western portion of the
Dominican Republic is reporting gusts to 40 mph (65 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure, based on observations from
the Dominican Republic and Haiti, is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). (link)

The lack of organization in the Caribbean is not a positive indication for Florida.  The further west the center of low pressure wobbles, the closer to the strengthening fuel source the storm becomes.  Accordingly, Rick Scott has declared a proactive State of Emergency:
[scribd id=276682293 key=key-Wg7j5GcI00TAWLBzNtQi mode=scroll]
Many of us have been through this several times, myself included.  Today and tomorrow are the best times for South Florida preparation.  Purchases today/tonight for basic storm needs are prudent.  Tomorrow, Saturday for preparing your home and property.
Fill car with gasoline.
Purchase extra gas for generators if needed.
Plan for 3-5 days post storm power outage.
Get cash to have on hand for post storm purchases with no electronic access.
Check medication and supply.
Basic shelf-stable food purchases for minimum 3 days without power:

  • Bottled water, estimate at 2 gals per day/per person, for 3 days.
  • Battery operated radio.
  • Flashlights, emergency candles and/or emergency lanterns for lighting.
  • Batteries and additional needs to cope without power/lighting.
  • Charcoal for cooking on grill.  Or extra propane tank etc.
  • Bleach for basic disinfectant.

Today is the day to take inventory of your hurricane and/or emergency supplies.  Here is an additional resource link to assist in preparation.  CLICK HERE

Use this thread to ask questions and share tips and advice.

Always know that if you are facing an emergency you can email us and we will do our utmost to assist if possible.

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