We are on the road headed back in to coastal SWFL now.  We have immediate wellness checks and assessments to conduct.  I will touch base later.
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 82.6 West. Irma is moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Irma will move near the northwestern coast of the Florida Peninsula this morning, cross the eastern Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia this afternoon, and move through southwestern Georgia and eastern Alabama tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Irma is expected to weaken to a tropical storm this morning and to a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon.
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There are millions of people without power throughout central and south Florida. As a consequence people are turning to broadcast livestreams available from local media on video platforms.  Here’s two livestream media sources for Tampa and Orlando:
♦West Coast –  Tampa, Bradenton, St. Pete (Manatee and Hillsborough Counties) via ABC Action News:

♦Central Florida – Orlando, Lakeland, Orange, Polk, Osceola, Citrus Counties via WFTV News 9:
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My apologies to those who have written complaining that CTH is not providing the comprehensive coverage of political news.  Unfortunately, home base for all current research consists of three duffel bags, a laptop, generator and a well suited 4×4; loaded with power tools, emergency kits and assorted roughneck supplies.
I will make every effort to return to political research and analysis – as soon as current logistics, community safety and overall concerns with safety/instability are abated.
Fortunately Hurricane Irma is weakening rapidly as the storm made contact with the Florida peninsular at Marco Island.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 81.8 West. Irma is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a north-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by tonight, with that motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should move near or over the west coast of the Florida Peninsula through Monday morning. Irma should then move inland over northern Florida and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon.
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The northern eye wall of Hurricane Irma is going to impact Marco Island (the Southern point of Collier County), within the hour.  Now is the time to move into your interior safe room for those in Collier County.    Collier residents will have about 2 to 3 hours of peak damaging winds beginning  about 45 minutes from now.
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 81.8 West. Irma is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a north-northwestward motion with a further increase in forward speed is expected later today, with that motion continuing through Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Irma should move near or over the southwest and west coast of the Florida Peninsula later today through tonight. Irma should then move inland over northern Florida and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While weakening is forecast, Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane while it moves near or along the west coast of Florida. (link) (more…)

Today is a good opportunity to reference the conversations we have discussed about this in the lead up to today.  In 1960 Hurricane Donna drained the Caloosahatchee River in Fort Myers during her NE turn toward Jacksonville.   Ironically That was September 10th, 1960.  The tidal flows will play a role in the pending Storm Surge.
Tampa Bay, moments ago:

The top of the storm is moving water away from the gulf beaches and barrier islands in proportion to the timing of the tide.  However, all of that water -along with the water carried by the storm’s energy, will come back in with the backside of the storm.  And if that times with an incoming tide….  The results are a fast and widespread storm surge, even up river as all the water piles up.
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For those outside the SWFL area, NBC-2 is a local network with exceptional coverage of Hurricane Irma for Lee, Collier and Charlotte counties.  Also, now that Irma is close to the keys the NBC 250 mile radar sweep allows them to follow Irma via their own radar which is far more precise and up to the hour accurate.  NBC-2.Com Website HERE
They also have a livestream Youtube channel NBC2 News HERE (embedded below), and they are broadcasting 24/7 on the storm as she arrives.  This information is far more useful than Weather or National Channel’s.

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Ground report follows NHC update.  Thankfully the slower forward progress has moderated the most severe and extreme Irma timing with SWFL tidal impacts.  Unfortunately, Tampa and St. Pete are now in the direct impact path. Tampa Bay storm surge is a very serious concern.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 81.0 West. Irma is moving slowly northwestward away from the north coast of Cuba near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in
forward speed is expected through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma is expected to cross the Lower Florida Keys Sunday morning and then move near or along the west coast of Florida Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Irma should then
move inland over the Florida panhandle and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon.
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As part of FL CERT (Citizens Emergency Response Team), we are forced to reposition outside of the storm surge area.  As a consequence during the logistical move I will be out of the loop for most of the afternoon and evening.  We will respond to recovery efforts from positions East of SWFL.
Hopefully, I’ll be able to check back in and give updates later tonight.

To ensure continuance of communication, CTH has auto-scheduled posts set up throughout the next week which will run automatically without any need for human data entry.  [ie. the website is secure and will function as normal – and site admins are disbursed throughout unaffected timezones]  Other than my absence (hopefully sporadic), you should not see any disruption.
What can YOU DO?
Please pray for the people of Florida.  This is an extremely stressful time for many people, including a significant number of elderly.  Unfortunately, due to modern disconnection a considerable number of people do not have frequent contact with family.
If you know people in Florida, please just reach out to them via social media and let them know they are in your thoughts and prayers.  You don’t have to call them, your don’t need to look for a response, but a short note -just touching base- via social media (facebook etc.), with kind words, can mean the world to people who might be feeling isolated.
Trust me, I’ve been seeing and reassuring those faces all day.  It matters.
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Useful Link -> Florida Disaster Org <- Useful Link

Ground Report.  Many well prepared people are now facing a crisis of a severely dangerous storm surge warning.  CTH readers (Hi Ziiggii) will well note the Hurricane challenges specific to the West Coast and Southwest Gulf Coast community. These unique challenges that have not been tested in 50+ years – Well folks, this is it.  The 130 MPH on-shore winds are timed to arrive with the incoming tide overnight on Sunday into Monday morning.

Due to extreme demand gasoline has been in short supply for the area South and West of Lake-O (Okeechobee) for five days.  Approximately an hour ago, against the backdrop of the latest Hurricane Track -And Upward Projecting Storm Surge of 10 to 15 ft– South West FL officials just added almost a million people to the Mandatory Evacuation Area.  People who were safe last night, based on previous projections, are no longer safe even if well prepared.  Combine it all, and, well, FUBAR:

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Unfortunately the latest update from the National Hurricane Center shows another slight shift westward putting the South and Central West Coast of Florida in the path of immediate concern.  –ADVISORY UPDATE HERE–
If you’ve followed along you might have noticed the ‘worst case scenario’ for the West coast of Florida. –Outlined Here–  However, I want to draw your attention to the forecast timing; because there’s a remarkable synergy lining up with Hurricane Donna from 1960.  First here’s the latest NHC forecast map and times:

Timing is critical here.  Between the two “M”‘s [Max Winds] (2pm Sun, and 2am Mon) you might note the geography of the coastal community, shows an inlet.  That inlet is the mouth of the Caloosahatchee River.  Also known as Punta Rassa.
During 1960 Hurricane Donna the Caloosahatchee River dropped significantly as a result of the powerful Westerly winds from approaching Donna and the local tide.   It looks like the exact same thing might happen again:
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