As many long-time readers will know, we do have a little bit more than average experience dealing with the aftermath of hurricanes.  I ain’t no expert in the before part; you need to heed the local, very local, professionals who will guide you through any preparation, and neighborhood specific guidelines, for your immediate area.

But when it comes to the ‘after part’, well, as a long-time CERT recovery member perhaps I can guide you through the expectation and you might find some value.  Consider this little word salad a buffet, absorb what might be of value pass over anything else.
When the winds reach around 40mph, the utility company will likely, proactively, shut down the power.  This makes things a heck of a lot safer in the aftermath; and much easier and safer during the rebuild.  Don’t expect the power to be turned back on until it is safe.
Hurricanes can be frightening; downright scary.  There’s nothing quite like going through a few to reset your outlook on just how Mother Nature can deliver a cleansing cycle to an entire geographic region.
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The 5:00pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows the massive storm has lost a little internal power but the forecast path is now considerably worse.  The projections put Florence actually making near landfall and simultaneously shifting south buzz-sawing both the North Carolina and South Carolina coast with hurricane winds.
The projected path is incredible.  SEE HERE (hit play) a hurricane paralleling the coastline while retaining strength is one of the most damaging outcomes possible.  This also increases the storm surge potential with multiple tide cycles.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 72.5 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday, and move slowly near the coastline through Saturday.
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The next advisory from the National Hurricane Center is 2:00pm today.  President Trump delivers a strong message of caution and concern ahead of the storm’s arrival.

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On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday and move slowly near the coastline through Saturday. Florence is still forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast.
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The 2:00am advisory for Hurricane Florence shows sustained winds of 140 MPH, with some strengthening possible, and a forward speed of 17 MPH.  With an approximate location 625 miles SE of Cape Fear North Carolina, that can mean projected landfall in approximately 38 hours.  All hurricane preparation should be rushed to completion.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through today. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane as it approaches the U.S. coast. (read more)  – 5:00am Advisory Will Post Here
Massive flooding is likely.  More than 20 inches of rain is probable.  Storm surges from 10 to near 20′ along the inner-coastal waterways are possible depending on tides.  You do not want to be near this. Listen to all evacuation orders and instructions from local officials.

Earlier this afternoon President Trump and Vice-President Mike Pence held a press briefing in the oval office along with FEMA Administrator Brock Long and DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen to discuss concerns and preparation in advance of hurricane Florence.
Those in the forecast areas are strongly advised to pay close attention to local officials and heed all evacuation orders. Florence is projected to be a long-duration event for the eastern seaboard and mid-Atlantic region.  Severe, possibly catastrophic, flooding is likely.

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[Transcript] – Oval Office – 3:13 P.M. EDT – THE PRESIDENT: Okay, thank you very much. I’ve received a briefing from Secretary Nielsen, Administrator Long, and my senior staff regarding Hurricane Florence and other tropical systems that will soon impact the United States and its territories. The safety of American people is my absolute highest priority. We are sparing no expense. We are totally prepared. We’re ready. We’re as ready as anybody has ever been.
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It is likely that hurricane watches and flood warnings will be issued Tuesday along the U.S. eastern seaboard.  According to the 11:00pm advisory:  A west- northwestward to northwestward motion and an increase in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours, and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.

Check HERE for the 5am Advisory on Tuesday Morning

Due to the specifics of this storm’s potential, ask yourself: How would I need to prepare if my power was out for two weeks to a month?  Some experts are predicting massive and unprecedented flooding – SEE HERE – If you don’t have to be there, plan to leave.  (more…)

During a 2:oopm intermediate advisory Hurricane Florence was shown to have rapidly strengthened to a category four storm with wind-speeds of 130 MPH.  All interests in the South and North Carolina region should watch closely and move toward completion of hurricane preparation. The storm is forecast to approach the coast on Thursday.

[National Hurricane Center] A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur late Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the coast of South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday.
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Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is forecast to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday night, and is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.
[National Hurricane Center] At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 57.7 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected on Monday, and that motion is forecast to continue through mid-week.

On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern coast of the United States on Thursday. (link)
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As of the 11:00am advisory Florence has become a category one hurricane with rapid strengthening anticipated over the next 36 hours.  The forecast track is still uncertain; however, residents of South and North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic region should pay close attention. There is a reasonable possibility Florence could be a multi-day event for the east coast – hovering for several days next weekend – SEE HERE (hit play)
Coastal residents of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic should pay close attention; and begin carrying out the beginning of a proactive hurricane plan.  Florence will likely approach the coast sometime on Thursday; residents have four full days for preparation. This specific storm has the signature forecast for of a major multi-day power outage.

[National Hurricane Center] At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 56.3 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is forecast to continue through mid-week.
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Tropical storm Florence is highly expected to grow to hurricane strength over the next few days.  Coastal residents from Florida north throughout the southeast should be paying attention.  Look at your schedule for next week and consider what may need to be adjusted based on the future forecasts and paths.  Begin taking pro-active steps.

Being proactive is empowering.  Check your schedule for next week.  Update your contact list and tell your family and friends of your plan.  Have a point of central contact.  If you are able, call on neighbors, check-in and see if they are paying attention.  Evaluate your personal hurricane and storm supplies; update and replace anything you might have used. Assess, modify and/or update any possible evacuation plans based on your location, and/or any changes to your family status.
Check your shutters and window coverings; test your generator; re-organize and familiarize yourself with all of your supplies and hardware. Check batteries in portable tools; locate tools you might need; walk your property to consider what you may need to do based on the storms path.  All decisions are yours. You are in control.
Due to coastal populations, a southeast storm means adding almost a day to any movement plans based on roads and traffic density.  Being proactive now helps to keep any future stress level low.  You are in control. If you have pets, additional plans may be needed.
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