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Note the timing of this about an event 2.5 months way:
Last remaining US troops set to exit Iraq by Sept. 30, capping 2-decade mission
Stars and Stripes
July 15, 2026
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2026-07-15/last-us-troops-leave-iraq-22271468.html
“We don’t think we need the military there anymore,” Trump said.
He added that Iraq will no longer face a problem from neighboring Iran, which he called “the bully of the Middle East.”
———-
To what extent is Iran influential in Iraq?
Iran is highly influential in Iraq, especially in politics, security, and parts of the economy, but not all-powerful. Tehran has built deep ties through allied parties, militia networks, trade, religious links, and cross-border ties, while Iraqi public backlash and competing foreign ties still limit its control.
Is the influence greater since the US war with Iraq?
Yes. Iran’s influence in Iraq became greater after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion than it had been under Saddam Hussein, because the war removed Iran’s main regional adversary and opened space for Tehran to build ties with Iraqi parties, militias, and state institutions. Analysts also note that Iran’s sway was especially strong in the years after 2003 and surged again during the fight against ISIS in 2014.
“… This is the head of one of the top medical schools in the country….”
https://xcancel.com/JennPellegrino/status/2077127936012886307
comments are GOOD
The Covid hospital medical protocol of Remdesivir and intubation made me a believer that the field (and business) of medicine is irreparably damaged.
Most general practitioners don’t do anything without consulting their computer, which will soon be completely controlled by A.I. They have little real world experience anymore.
One exception would be surgeons.
I favor older doctors because they have much more experience, of course, but mainly because they (like me) remember a world when doctors weren’t “managed” by insurance reimbursements and woke institutions.
I truly feel sorry for today’s med school graduates. And that goes double for their patients.
At a recent urgent care visit I was asked if the PA could use AI to assist her diagnosis ………I refused (so for now its a choice). The visit was for a simple sinus infection………(just prescribe the anti-biotics doc, trust me I’ve had many a sinus infection.)
DEI makes people cra-cra. Just Wow!
Good job. There were no Iranian shots at them that I can see, so they’d either abandoned the sub and the area around it or weren’t expecting a water-based attack and all weapons were anti-aircraft and pointing upward.
Small points:
I thought their Navy was entirely destroyed. And the sub was lifted way out of the water which was most likely because it was not serviceable and was probably in dry dock for servicing (for who knows how long) and possibly required parts they no longer had and couldn’t get. And about Zerohedge’s lower cost comment, for some reason they used TWO drones to attack a stationary target and each one costs:
Approximately $1 million to $1.2 million per unit (estimated; no official public figure).
Saronic does not publicly disclose an exact unit price for the Corsair (a 24-foot autonomous surface vessel designed for missions including ISR, sea denial, and attritable/one-way attack roles). However, consistent third-party estimates and analyses put it in this range: Sacra (a secondary-market tracker) lists the Corsair at $1.2 million.
Watch: US Military Unleashes Suicide Drone-Boat Swarm On Iranian Submarine Facility
Jul 15, 2026
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/watch-us-military-unleashes-suicide-drone-boat-swarm-iranian-submarine-facility
Three U.S. Navy-backed Saronic Corsair one-way attack sea drones struck Iran’s Bandar Abbas Naval Base on Sunday, according to U.S. Central Command.
The operation marks the clearest sign yet that the U.S. military has taken a page directly from Ukraine’s maritime warfare playbook, using expendable, autonomous, suicide stealth drone boats to penetrate a heavily defended naval facility – much cheaper than a million-dollar missile.
No one knows exactly what President Trump, will lay out on Thursday night, on his address to the nation.
Decades of experience says it will be a big nothing burger with endless droning facts buried in millions of pages of BS and the continuation of the longest running soap, “As the Swamp Oozes”.
In swamp speech: “You can’t dazzle them with brains, baffle them with BS”
Speaking for myself, I do not believe President Trump is a stupid man, who just does things half-cocked.
I do not believe he would put himself and family through this level of hell, to just leave it to chance with the uniparty criminal organization to just lose everything.
What would be the point? Unless President Trump is the distraction, in on the con.
Keep in mind if he fails, he’s done. Think Bolsheviks and the Romanov’s, the Karen’s will line up a firing squad in a nano second. The Trump name will be erased from history, like Joseph McCarthy the dark ones will contort his name into a pejorative like “McCarthyism” and salt the earth with the enemy MSM going 24/7 until the hypnotized repeat the false narrative, “Trump is Hitler…
I don’t know for certain, but neither does anybody else. But not having a plan does not comport with the man that I’ve come to know and love. Our Great American President Donald J Trump is a proven fighter, who likes to win.
With the mid-terms 3.5 months away, the executioner is sharpening his axe, the question is for whom.
“Oh, Stan stop with the hyperbole, nothing’s gonna happen, the wife and I will be in Vail for Christmas.
What do you think these demons will do to the Trumps and MAGA if he/we fail?
This election is an existential event. One side will be left standing the question is will it be good or evil.
President Trump had better unleash hell, because they will not hesitate to unleash hell, on the USA and stomp on what’s left of our carcass and the Constitutional Republic, of the USA will go away or Balkanize and go into Civil War.
The demons will be pleased either way.
So, for me if Thursday’s address to the nation is a giant snow job, a blizzard of meaningless BS, President Trump has made a deal and the UniParty has won.
If he has made a deal, I take it back, he is dumb. Making a deal with the father of lies
I don’t believe that.
Please Lord watch and keep us as we again face evil personified, Lord with your shield help us to strike quickly pushing this evil back into darkness, re-illuminating the USA as that Shining City on a Hill, where anything is possible!
Amen.
Ultra-MAGA! Pray, keep God and your family close, be prepared, as this is going to get ugly.
StanH…agree with you on all but..we are still not Constitutional Republic which ended 1871..and VSGPDJT try restore it since 2017……..no luck so far
Indeed you are right, I stand corrected. I believe if President Trump is successful it will lead right back to 1871.
Is it just me or are we starting to see a new pattern emerge in the Strait of Hormuz?
1) Notice this latest round of kinetic escalation hasn’t roiled the markets vs the historic panic norms?
2) Oil only went up a bit from $70 to around $80 vs historic panic patterns from $60 to $130 a barrel within days as hostilities resumed..
3) The markets had one small down day but are showing stability even as hostilities, threats, and force is applied.
Seems to me Trump is again playing the long game, and is showing the world and that there are rapidly emerging alternatives to the volatility of sourcing ones oil from the Iranian regime. He’s erasing the world belief that tensions in the gulf must always require world wide financial panic.
I’m not saying Iran isn’t still capable of still doing something awful, but the relevancy of their intimidation is in steep decline. They are losing their fear factor, and that is good for the gulf states and the rest of the world.
I’m pretty sure that they are very rapidly losing their capability to “do something awful.”
Why are oil prices so low despite the Iran war?
Oil prices (Brent crude around $80–85 per barrel in mid-July 2026) have moderated significantly after an initial spike from the Iran war, despite ongoing disruptions.
The 2026 Iran war (involving Iran vs. a U.S.-Israel coalition) caused major disruptions, including Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz (a chokepoint for ~20% of global oil trade), attacks on infrastructure in Iran and Gulf states (e.g., Saudi facilities like Ras Tanura), and resulting supply losses of several million barrels per day at peak.
Why prices aren’t higher now
Several factors explain the relatively contained price levels (prices surged initially but fell back toward pre-escalation or lower levels by June/July):
– Partial resumption of shipping and partial recovery: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has gradually increased (though still well below pre-war levels), aided by ship-to-ship transfers, demining efforts, and ceasefires/talks. This reduced the immediate shipping bottleneck.
– High inventories and strategic releases: The world entered the conflict with a substantial global oil surplus and large stockpiles (crude, products, floating storage, etc.). Governments (including IEA members and the U.S.) released emergency reserves, and other buffers like rerouted tankers helped bridge gaps. These are now depleting but bought significant time.
– Demand destruction: Higher prices and economic impacts led to reduced consumption. Global oil demand is now forecast to decline in 2026 (first annual drop since 2020), by around 1 million b/d or more, due to lower refinery runs (especially in Asia and the Middle East), reduced economic activity, and substitution/conservation. This offsets much of the supply shock.
– Increased non-OPEC+ supply: Producers like the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and others ramped up exports to fill gaps. This helped redirect flows to markets east of Suez.
– Market expectations and futures pricing: Traders anticipated some resolution or adaptation (e.g., via alternative routes or production restarts), limiting panic. Prices peaked higher earlier (e.g., over $100 in some periods) but eased with ceasefire news and signs of stabilization.
Current nuances
Note that crude prices have eased, but refined product prices (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) remain high or higher for consumers. This is due to refinery capacity offline (~10% globally, from war damage + unrelated factors like Ukraine strikes on Russian facilities), low inventories, and strong summer demand—leading to record refiner profits via wide crack spreads.
The situation remains volatile: Tensions can flare (e.g., recent U.S. operations), full recovery of Middle East production/exports could take months into 2027, and inventories need rebuilding. Forecasts suggest further downward pressure on crude prices later in 2026–2027 if supply rebounds faster than demand, potentially averaging in the $65–75 range, though risks of spikes persist.
In short, markets adapted faster than expected through buffers, demand response, and alternative supplies, preventing a sustained extreme spike despite the historic disruption. The war’s full effects are still playing out, especially on products and long-term recovery.
——–
Is this temporary?
Yes, the current moderation in crude oil prices is largely temporary, but the trajectory points toward potential further easing later in 2026–2027 rather than a sustained return to war-time highs—assuming no major new escalations.
Short-term outlook (now through late 2026)
– Depleting buffers and incomplete recovery: Inventories that cushioned the initial shock are running down. Global oil inventories have drawn heavily, and restocking will support prices. Full recovery of production, refining, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to take months (into 2027 in many cases) due to infrastructure damage, demining, logistics, and political hurdles.
– Ongoing volatility: Recent incidents (e.g., attacks, blockades, or tit-for-tat strikes) have caused price jumps, showing the market remains sensitive. Prediction markets give only ~50% odds of full Hormuz normalization by end-2026.
– Product prices stay elevated longer: While crude has eased, gasoline/diesel/jet fuel costs for consumers remain high due to refinery issues and low inventories. Refiner margins are at record levels, with recovery not expected until 2027.
Medium- to longer-term (late 2026–2027)
Major forecasters like the IEA and EIA expect the market to swing toward surplus if flows resume:
– Global supply is projected to rebound strongly in 2027 (e.g., +7–8 mb/d) as Middle East output normalizes and non-OPEC+ production continues growing.
– Demand remains suppressed in 2026 (decline of ~1–1.2 mb/d year-on-year, first since 2020) but should rebound in 2027 (~+2 mb/d) as prices ease and economies adjust.
– Price forecasts: Brent could average in the $70s later in 2026 and drop toward $65/bbl in 2027, though restocking will moderate the decline. Some analysts see a $75–85 range in 2027.
Bottom line: The “low” prices (relative to peak disruption) reflect adaptation and buffers that are fading, so upward pressure or volatility is likely in the coming months. However, successful de-escalation and recovery should lead to a looser market over the next 1–2 years, preventing a permanent high-price regime. Geopolitical risks (e.g., renewed or sustained Hormuz issues) remain the biggest wildcard.
One year chart of oil prices:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?op=1
If you believe the AI tripe you post, you should be able to make a fortune in petroleum. Keep us posted.