Pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar polling gives his perspective on what he will be looking for early on election night to sense the overall tone of the electorate and potential for bigger results.
Overall Cahaly’s interesting and insightful perspective appears very solid, and he provides good advice. This is worth a review and notation.
Pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar spoke with FITSNews today about what races to watch on Election Night to get an early sense of how things might go for President Trump and Kamala Harris.
H/t –> @stevecutsdocs
. pic.twitter.com/YAEpJBqMyE— Paul Villarreal (AKA Vince Manfeld) (@AureliusStoic1) November 3, 2024
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I’m a “political junkie” so find this interesting, and have taken my hopium in double doses for Tue/Wed. but it’s probably going into the morass of hung up states for a week ?, weeks??? The Point being No One Knows “What’s Coming” but the Insiders.
Trump went off his usual rally palaver in PA yesterday to get a bit prescient about the democRat cheating and what’s coming.
December 6th, 1941 was a party Saturday night in Honolulu for USN sailors ….. and Dec 7th didn’t even Wake Up the folks in Manilla and Singapore !!!
History has Lessons on Human Behaviour, “Too Little Too Late” is man’s most fatal mental illness.
Si vis pacem para bellum
Not sure I follow. Can you elaborate fellow treeper? “Usual palaver rally” has me stumped.
‘usual rally palaver’ – talks about cheating.
‘Off the usual palaver’ – “What’s coming” ..
‘all’ whatever that happened at poll stations like last time and states results hung up etal
So is preparing to fight the last war
Fox News just called Arizona for Harris.
sarc.
Cabbage Patch Brett Baier would probably prefer that we just skip the whole voting thing and let him call the entire election for Harris.
Was that accompanied by the sound of hanging chads in Miami/Dade?
ABC local affiliate in PA called the state for Camela last week so wouldn’t be surprised at all.
Hahahaha!! PERFECT!!
YOU WIN the internet on THAT ONE!!
LMFAO!!
If Trump wins New Hampshire and Virginia… it will be massive night for Trump.
If Trump doesn’t win it’s because of cheating and by all rights the whole apparatus should be torn apart. Not the businesses or homes the parts that are responsible, the people responsible.
This country now reminds me of a parent giving a child a precious item that is easily broken. Gently handing it to the child with great care. The child cannot understand the complexities or the responsibility he has been given. Moments later the parent sees the item in the sandbox broken covered in sand and no child around.
The men and women (women were always support in all things not anymore, now it’s a struggle of egos for recognition) who started this country were exceptional, and most people were at some thing, not always educated but exceptional. And they knew what was right and just for a nation and its people. They had to or they were separated, left out.
imagine a mom who taught her kids the role that God said they were created for, the character, the discipline, the confidence, the ethics. Now, it’s a race from birth to death and take no prisoners, taught by parents. There are no grown ups, men have no chests as CS. Lewis referenced. Women are not helpers, they want to lead. They cannot, it’s a mistake by nature, and all of it is by design. We apologize for speaking truth, disciplining our kids, being men or women, it’s not any of our nature, it’s why most are miserable. It’s why women are miserable, and men want to squat to pee.
They cannot sell the steal this time. Everyone including them knows it. Look at Obama’s face. Look at all the cretins in for the IC. It will be bastille day in America if they try to.
Stress does awful things to people.
How much to make of this? Quoting a Treeper here “Democrat candidates are so bad they don’t campaign, yet they win in 2020”
Clear message from Steve Bannon’s reply to media upon release from prison
“I have the War Room; it is the media platform for the activist wing of the Trump movement, and that is my best use. I’ve done a stint in the White House. I love President Trump. We work 24 hours a day on this, but he needs—particularly given the weakness of Fox News and the neo-con neoliberal tendencies of Fox – a platform of information sharing 24-7. … “I’m interested in results, not positions. I have been a staffer in the White House and I’m just not cut out to go back and be a staffer again.
Say Trump does lose, what would you point to as the biggest reason why?
Well, No. 1, he’s not gonna lose. … You know Raskin will be the head guy in in the anti-Trump movement and he’s going to lead with NOT certifying the election on January 6. They’re blatant about this.
So, we have to win the House. You cripple the Trump presidency at its second term at its inception if you don’t hold the House. The House is much more important than the Senate right now.
If the House goes to the Democrats, who gets the most blame?
I don’t think there’s any doubt it’s (Mike) Johnson and not just Johnson, but his leadership team. They had every opportunity when Kevin McCarthy got thrown out; to come in full-throated with a real agenda and they failed to do it.
By the way, if [the House] gets held I don’t give any credit to Johnson. I give zero credit to Johnson. So I give all credit to Trump. Trump’s dragging these guys across the finish line. Johnson didn’t have Trump’s back whatsoever; in his speakership – did NOTdo anything on January 6, didn’t do anything on anything. All happy talk. He’s being bailed out by Trump.
“it’s beyond the congressmen that MAGA can’t stand. They have to win the seats. There are a bunch of RINOs in here that you’re not going to like. It doesn’t matter.
We need 218 [seats] and we’ve got to get it because if you don’t, you’re going to cripple Trump’s presidency right out of the box.
I think they are worried about all the stealth watchers. Not the RNC but those citizens that take it upon themselves to get a little inside and be ready to blow the whistle.
We don’t even know how many of these watchers there are, so how can democrats steal knowing one of their own could be a mole? Sure, some of the most stupid will go ahead but the larger organized fraudsters have to be looking over their shoulder with no confidence they can pull it off this time..
Yes you are correct, there will be MASSIVE UNREST AND POTENTIALLY SERIOUS VIOLENCE NOT SEEN SINCE THE CIVIL WAR!!! 🤔
Trust me, they will because they’ve done it in the past. They cannot allow Trump to take office because they know one of his first prioritize will be to have them arrested for treason!
I can’t just write off the possibility of a legit Harris victory. Women voters don’t mind taking the entire country down to protect their “right” to kill their babies. Do not underestimate this vote. And the GOP has done nothing constructive on this end since 2022. The state bills that have been passed have been on the more restrictive side.
Along with this, Reagan conservatives are dying off and they’re being replaced by radicalized millennials. These things make a difference.
I just hope that enough people have woken up to Kamala Harris and turn out.
Yeah but is abortion really pivoting on the presidential election? It’s a state issue now and I don’t see any likely scenario no matter who is president where congress passes either an abortion ban or legislation enshrining abortion in all 50 states. IMO it’s nothing more than a lefty scare tactic with no basis in reality. Now the few states where abortion laws are on the ballot…that may have some effect on turnout…but how much and in what direction I don’t know.
The left will always blame Trump for bringing in SCOTUS judges who overturned Roe v. Wade.
Abortion is now a state issue. Any woman who votes against Trump because of abortion is either uninformed about how the issue is situated now or taking revenge on Trump for Dobbs. Either way, the Uniparty knows that the real social issue that IS at stake is transgenderism. That issue won’t bring some women to the polls, even abortion advocates, which is why the party is still yelling about abortion.
Once again, liberal women are being used to support the “rights” of OTHER people, whose eventual “rights” will actually damage them. LGBT are pushing the agenda, and women have been the unwitting dupes.
Yes – because the DemoFascists MADE abortion a top issue, and their brainwashed minions bought it hook line and sinker. They’re screaming that it was removed as a federal mandate by a Trump-assisted SCOTUS majority. The DemoFascists want pro-infanticide law mandated in ALL 50 states, not just a majority of states.
Just because they want it doesn’t mean they will get it. Same with transgender surgeries for criminals and student loan bailouts. Most of the country will never accept these left of fringe social views.
The more they talk about radical issues, the deeper they sink into the quicksand of political irrelevance.
Gold Sister, I’m hoping you are correct. There are too many corrupt courts these days… so I’m sure it will continue to be pursued by the Dems.
After all, continuing the Left’s radical totalitarianism is required to suppress and persecute Christians and enable the Left’s satanic worship wherein abortion is the unholy sacrament…
No, leftists want 24/7 abortion
From what I can see out here in the real world, there is a very distinct possibility that more than 50% of Americans today are just plain nuts.
I’ve been all over this great country and rarely find anyone that is even remotely out of line. I guess it depends on where you go, with whom and when. However, the media and “entertainment” well that’s a different story.
There are plenty of Millenial, Gen X, Boomers and Gen Z women who do not support abortion. The attention goes to the screaming radical feminazis, but they do not represent most women of child bearing age.
The professorial class of liberal women want young women to go to college and work, therefore push them to sacrifice their children and families. These types are all in the minority but the corrupt media magnifies their loud mouth messaging on “reproductive rights.” There is no constitutional or moral right to end a life, however many states do allow exceptions to appease political groups.
In 2016 very little of a democrat candidate campaign, i.e, HRC; in 2020 the same with Dementia Joe as candidate; in 2024 the same with Harris, simply the worst candidate possible; seems to be a pattern, i.e., democrat candidates are so bad they don’t campaign, yet they win in 2020 and this year we are led to believe that it’s close, what’s up.
There’s no need to campaign in earnest when they can rely on surrogates in the media to spread their propaganda 24/7 for free.
Exactly, and a huge part of the equation; the Obama campaign in 2008 was ground zero.
If Kamala drew Trump crowd numbers with their enthusiasm that they bring with them towards her she would be declared the winner two months ago.
So now quit with the worries
It’s the cheating that’s the worries.
of course the crowds and enthusiasm for Pres Trump prove the truth, just like in 2020.
but we know what happened in 2020, hence the worries. 🙁
I don’t want to believe it but suspect the Bucks County Republican Party is in on the shenanigans. Myself and a number of people have volunteered to be poll watchers and have not received any communications about shift or location nor received our certificates. Someone in the Buck County PA Republican headquarters told me Republican poll watchers are getting their poll watcher certificates, shift and locations today? Are Democrat poll watchers receiving their certificates from the Bureau of Elections today too?
I cannot believe anyone is this incompetent or unorganized. I suspect intentional incompetence. I hope Trump’s people are watching Bucks County PA for fraud. Look for saboteurs within Trump force 47.
Ed, sadly the Republican party here in St Johns County, FL has been completely hijacked by Democrats posing as Republicans and succeeded in getting some of their Democrats elected in our REPUBLICAN Primary. So yes, they are probably involved, just as our state party is complicit in their shenanigans. Nothing is as it seems anymore. What’s worse is these nasty faux Republicans continue to tear me down because, as the only conservative leader here, they need me gone. Once President Trump gets in, we must systematically clean out our county Republican groups once and for all.
Read the tealeaf’s – it’s more entertaining!
FWIW, Trafalgar’s latest “Battleground” projections (MoE: +/- 2.9 pts):
Apparently anyone can be a pollster/predictor, so here is mine:
President Trump wins with at least 280 electoral votes!
Linked is my prediction by state.
<a href=”https://www.270towin.com/maps/JKgbQ”><img src=”https://www.270towin.com/map-images/JKgbQ.png” width=”800″></a>
For those who seen my prediction since March 2023, I still predict Trump will not be inaugurated. 🙁
I didn’t bother listening since he’s on Giordano’s show weekly. He was just on and again, zero commitment
Just heard Karl Rove on Fox say he would be looking at Clayton County, Georgia because he expected early results and because of its mostly black population to gauge other similar counties in Georgia.
I’m no fan of Karl’s but I’ve been a resident there for a long time and voted early this election so I’ll be watching too. Georgiavotes.com gives the data as it stands right now on each county for those who are interested.
I have had so many contacts by seeming pollsters and won’t answer them.
I am Independent and would have lied to pollsters had I answered.
The reason is, they, whether conservative or liberal do too much “push- poll like” projections.