Pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar polling gives his perspective on what he will be looking for early on election night to sense the overall tone of the electorate and potential for bigger results.
Overall Cahaly’s interesting and insightful perspective appears very solid, and he provides good advice. This is worth a review and notation.
Pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar spoke with FITSNews today about what races to watch on Election Night to get an early sense of how things might go for President Trump and Kamala Harris.
H/t –> @stevecutsdocs
. pic.twitter.com/YAEpJBqMyE— Paul Villarreal (AKA Vince Manfeld) (@AureliusStoic1) November 3, 2024
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NH NC bellweather. Ohio senate also. Not certsin but I believe JDV is in NH tonight.
In Derry, was scheduled for 1900 Eastern.
No one comes to the north country. The congressional candidate (R) did in May. Then the morons in Dixville Notch will vote at midnight, 99% libs.
Yes, except for Trump on December 1, 2015. Waterville Valley, NH.
Not easy to get to in a freezing rain storm. 1,200 people were there,
including us. The Union Leader newspaper had just endorsed Jeb!
They reported that a few hundred were at the Trump rally. Hahaha!
99% bought-&-paid-for in Dixville Notch…
I lived in NH for 13 years and was active in all three Buchanan campaigns.
After their ’92 Libertarian vote I came to despise the people in Dixville Notch.
Looks like they deserve the name Dixville. New Hampshire and Maine have the luxury of being over 90% white–so it is easy to advocate for all the” minorities “if you yourself do not experience any of the “benefits” of diversity firsthand. Throw all their behinds in downtown Philly or Baltimore for a few weeks and see how they feel.
Just ship all the illegals there until President Trump and deport them.
Inbreeding can do that to a community’s intelligence.
Crowd waiting in Derry for JD at 5:20 pm last night:
https://x.com/NewHampJournal/status/1853211257446224309
They dont seem to be a typical MAGA crowd a smatering of red hats and Trump merchandise
Maybe undecided looking to be convinced ?
My thoughts too on lack of MAGA merch….maybe bc there is SO MUCH TDS around its just gets tiring to deal with the idiocy….and like, most good fighters don’t go looking for fights….nothing to prove if you are confident….
Thanks so much for posting….The ole picture worth 10,000 words applies……. 🤙🏻
I’m pulling for the “. . . it’s going to be a massive night for Trump.”
Most of the world is too!🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
Interesting. Robert seems more bullish with his tone on Trump than his actual polls. If you have not already, go out and vote early tuesday. Lets makd it a “massive night for Trump”.
Massive night for Old Glory.
“Lets makd it a “massive night for Trump”.
How about: “Let’s make it a massive night for the people, and their Republic”
No reason it can’t be both.
I know. If not for PDJT then we would all be sitting around hoping that the next Uniparty-RINO beats Kamala.
If not for PDJT then Obama would still have his tentacles in DC, endless wars would be on the menu, Lizard Cheney would still be in power, the final nail in the American coffin would be hammered, and the Uniparty would be marching towards WW3.
Making it a massive night for Trump means that it is a massive night for the people and their Republic.
Step 1 is to get Trump into office. Without that then there is nothing.
Can’t have one without the other! They are synonymous!
Today, yes.
God and country! 🇺🇲🙏
❤️🤍💙🦁👑❤️🤍💙
Here’s a little social-psychology . . . I realize that trying to quantify the kind of enthusiasm that we routinely see at Trump’s rally’s is challenging, but I also think there’s something going on there that might very well be predictive.
Looking at the relative differences in visible crowd psychology we should have some sympathy to hard-to-quantify behavior that that might well undermine a pollster’s efforts at prediction. There is, for instance, an obvious difference in both size and enthusiasm (aka social dynamics) exhibited in the Trump crowds versus the rather-too-staged, dynamics we see at the Kamala rally’s.
What does this mean when ballots start showing up? Well, in terms of marketing, the kinds of people who make up Trump’s crowds are exactly the kinds of folks you want to show up to buy your product—in this case, Donald J. Trump. More specifically, there is a uniformity in Trump’s crowds. They come to buy him, buy his well publicized values, and—especially important—buy his well structured denunciation of Kamala’s largely BS laden campaign comments. SImply put the huge trump crowds ain’t buyin’ any of it.
The problem for pollsters, unfortunately for their interests in statistical prediction (who tend to really like “real numbers”) is that we are dealing with largely subjective values and behaviors. My opinion—ahem—is that there is more authenticity in the Trump crowds than in the Kamala crowds. Kamala can only be assured of filling seats at her rally’s by brings in popular performers. Trump’s folks, when it becomes necessary, will happily create their own tailgate parties.
Can you even Kamala’s crowds creating spontaneous tailgate parties? There’s a subjective difference here that may be hard to quantify with number crunching but it is also pretty doggone obvious to even casual observers looking at our computer screens. GO TRUMP!!!!
The same numbers were there for Trump in the last election, millions out to rallies, yet fraud carried the day. Do not allow this again.
Don’t forget Covid and the mail in ballots enabled the fraud. (Cheat) 15 million more than Obama, stopped counting in the middle of the night, no way in Sheol!
I paid very close attention to the aftermath of ’20. Sidney Powell quickly decoded the steal. She was right over and over. Then True The Vote’s film “2000 mules” documented widespread ballot stuffing. Trump was/is right. The 20 election was stolen.
As Sidney Powell recently wrote, with Trump’s victory Tuesday comes a second win: the acknowledgement he also was victorious in 2020.
Let’s hope so.
Even with victory, there can be no complacence & we must immediately begin to push for paper ballots & same day voting.
Same as in 2020, Comrade. The democRat Deep State pulled of The sElection Coup. They Are Doing It Again !!!
Normies say, “Oh no, They couldn’t possibly think It Can Work Again !!!”
Normies just can’t conceive of Bolsheviks in the flesh. This USSA is already a Reality, and Tue will be the End of the Beginning Reckoning for We/Me/You or They/Them.
Irreconcilable Differences, another version of the Election of 1860……… which had “Consequences”
So true. Behold the Republicans. They had four years to fix this. If it goes bad they will just stand there with their Gomer Pyle shocked face.
I doubt that I will remember any of what he said to watch for, but I think he is correct. Maybe if this video is archived, I can pull it up on election night to help me track how Trump is doing.
I hope SD posts some good election return sites we can watch because I refuse to watch the fake news sites.
Agree with “election return sites” because I dont know what to watch/follow on tues night.
does tuesday night even matter anymore?
i’m thinking of just waiting for Pres Trump to post something on truth social.
i’m not going to sit around and wait for some nefarious idiot on the boob tube to tell me who “won”.
what is everyone going to watch?
Tucker Carlson from Mar A Lago.
I’m going to check out Adam Scott, should be a good watch.
I’m going to play golf that day, and a poker tournament that night. I just can’t watch.
The whole country will be playing high stakes poker that night. 😉
More like Russian roulette
I pace back-and -forth all night long!
I go to bed early & hope for the best. Usually a kid calls to wake us up with the news when one or the other candidates concedes, if it is a landslide.
I am with you Sharon. Nothing good will come of watching the BS “news” presenters.
Watch here.? Maybe Sundance will put up a live thread for readers to post what they find from everywhere else.
Yes, I’ve spent the last three elections at the Treehouse.
I probably spent the last several dozen counting primaries!
Barry Cunningham.
Bongino is covering it.
A couple of good options would be Badlands Media or Dan Bongino. Both will be on Rumble.
Larry Schwiekart on Twitter is a really good follow, and he’s doing a live Election Night stream with Seth Keshel that might be a good choice to avoid the MSM news.
That’s where I will be following the returns. Keshel is purely data based.
Link please?
Just bookmark this page.
Just did it. Thanks.
I am planning on Larry Schwiekart online stream and Bongino on Rumble. I will check in to see if PBD is doing a live stream as well. I might turn to Faux news if it’s a good night to see the Paul Ryan tears flowing.
Sundance will – this I am sure of!
I’ll be watching Real America’s Voice election night.
Right-click the video, “copy video address”, and send it to yourself by email.
The Fanfare channel on X.
Wednesday morning will be Christmas Morning, like when I was an 8 year old.
I’m planning to go to bed early and ignore everything till morning like I did in 2016. Slept like a baby.
Sorry but I’m not…planning an all-nighter especially to watch from 2:00 to 5:00 CST…
Went to bed around 10pm feeling elated seeing how big PDJT leads were…Spouse woke me around 3am saying they were stealing the election. Very sad night.
Need to prevent a repeat of the “pause” in the tabulation of the voting in the late night telecasts. Hopefully, Elon Musk is using his technological prowess and considerable resources to detect and publicize any such tactics.
Vote and make the Trump Train steamroll its way to victory!!!
God help us if Kommie steals it.
Too big to rig. Let’s out vote the demon cheaters.
A WIN TOO BIG TO RIG
MAKES A STEAL TOO OBVIOUS TO SURVIVE
And even worse if the AWFLs and the illegals actually outvote MAGA. An outside possibility, yes, but still conceivable with the electorate this nation is currently enduring.
On “selection” night 2016, I tuned inro USA Watchdog.com with Greg Hunter and Gerald Celente. Not exactly cool, calm and not prone to emotion humans, but I love them both. I will never forget their moment by moment commentary. EVER! I love them both.
I don’t pay for cabled TV, but Tucker Carlson is hosting a live Election Night broadcast. That’s where I am going to watch. Somehow I feel like Chauncy Gardener in the book and movie “Being There.” Yes, I like to watch. As perverse at that seems to be these daze. Ha ha.
Have some fun and keep your sense of humor intact. I think someone like Biden said, all those known unknowns. They are everywhere these daze.
I remember the known unknowns and unknown unknowns, etc., coming from SecDef Donald Rumsfeld, thought it was quite clever and insightful.
“Daze” is about right. 😉
It’s those lousy “unknown unknowns” we have to worry about!
Elon bought the crime scene and knows who the criminals are. The jewels will be returned.
Yep. In 2020 I had slept and then got up in the middle of the night. Laughingly, CNN actually had the best state-specific “ticker” going. That’s when I was able to watch, as it happened, an extra 149,000 Biden votes spike into the system in Wisconsin, and knew it would happen elsewhere.
OK, will be watching for New Hampshire.
Why?
But the border’s wide open….
Who is she being protected from?
How pathetic this current administration is!!!
I thought walls don’t work?
To keep the criminals IN?
Bad sign. Our government is really afraid of us. An indicator of the degree of their guilt.
It’s not the MAGA people who riot and destroy property. I guess they’re figuring Kamala will lose and her antifa shock troops will be creating mayhem.
IMHO the timing of this “forting up” is the tell tale.
The Marxists surrounding Biden and Kamala are expecting what MAGA and most citizens would view as a man made cataclysmic event after election night but well before inauguration day.
Market crash.
Electric grid down.
Foreign attack on continental states likely NBC.
Obviously stolen election.
Arrest or other loss of President Trump.
Refusal to honor election results.
This can only be interpreted as extremely concerning actions by the deep state.
Pray. Battle in prayer. Don’t say pray then we’ll do, prayer is the doing. Pray for all our leaders that more people may be turned to Christ, this is the ultimate battle.
God bless the USA and protect our people from evil.
You think a fence would hold people back if that happened?
Does it matter more what Obama and his minions think?
Agree 100%. We can rebuke the demons from wherever we are and ask the Lord to battle for us.
Pray Psalm 58 (TPT)
“God’s justice? You high and mighty politicians
know nothing about it!
Which one of you has walked in justice toward others?
Which one of you has treated everyone right and fair?
Not one! You only give ‘justice’ in exchange for a bribe.
For the right price you let others get away with murder.
Wicked wanderers even from the womb, that’s who you are!
Lying with your words, your teaching is poison.
Like cobras closing their ears to the most expert of the charmers, you strike out against all who are near.
O God, break their fangs; shatter the teeth of these ravenous lions!
Let them disappear like water falling on thirsty ground.
Let all their weapons be useless.
Let them be like snails dissolving into the slime.
Let them be cut off, never seeing the light of day!
God will sweep them away so fast that they’ll never know what hit them.
The godly will celebrate in the triumph of good over evil.
And the lovers of God will trample the wickedness of the wicked under their feet!
Then everyone will say ‘There is a God who judges the judges’ and ‘There is a great reward in loving God’”
I wonder if the Antifa-BLM-Occupy Wall Street terrorists will storm the capital while Kamala is forced to certify the election due to the law that they passed? The J6 crowd did not have terroristic intentions but the AntifaBLMOWS crowd will.
Oh, the irony of their voter-terrorists trying to stop the “peaceful transfer of power”.
This should be very interesting to watch their monsters that they created use violence as speech.
PATHETIC!! They are “protecting” themselves from the people they hire to start a riot!!
I can’t imagine any Trump supporter darkening the door of the Capitol from here on out with people still in the Gulag for showing up last time. Their plan I’m sure.
It’s a psy-op to gin-up votes.
They want to rile up their base by implying that MAGA will “attack” like Jan 6. Which wasn’t an attack, but the illusion that it was “worse than the Civil War” is all they’ve got.
My best advice? Ignore their crap, and GO VOTE!
Certainly a well reasoned alternative that its another mind game.
And of course Vote! Vote! Vote! Fight! Fight! Fight!
“Their base”? Perhaps they have played to the minority so long they became an even smaller minority? At the end of their rainbow lies a landfill of lost souls.
Well and good if so. I won’t be happy until the last little purple haired woke mental urchin dyes their hair blond, attends church and conducts themselves as young ladies should.
I think “their base” is
“ Marc Elias and the Democrat party’s massive election ‘improving’ enterprise” to quote from this article by Elizabeth Nickson. It’s a dark read, that’s why I’m praying! It’s also a sign of what desperately needs to be dismantled for We the People to be free again.
https://open.substack.com/pub/elizabethnickson/p/inside-the-international-criminal?r=ohc7s&utm_medium=ios
I do not understand how the rust belt does not fall, given the national polls have shifted 7 points since 2020.
The Rust Belt is ours.
<The Rust Belt is ours.>
Achieved because of hard work by campaign…
It didn’t happen just by oxidant 🙂
Orange you glad you have CTH to tease with your wit?
Yeap polishing vocabulary with the raillery
Excellent, Monti!
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Hey WORDMAN!!
Must have been abrasive for them.
Wasn’t by acident either.
“by Oxidant” very, very clever
Michigan elections are run lawlessly. Pennsylvania only slightly better, if at all. Wisconsin is a mess. Even Ohio is suspect.
The Steal is a real thing. It’s all I feared in 2020, and now.
I’m worried………..VERY worried.
There hasn’t been an honest election in Wisconsin since 1854 (at least).
Cahaly said that if Trump wins North Carolina by more than 2-1/2 to 3 points, it’s going to be a big night for him.
To add some perspective on this, AtlasIntel released their final pre-election poll yesterday and showed Trump leading in North Carolina by 3.4 points. Out of a field of 27 major pollsters in 2020, AtlasIntel came in number one with the lowest average error rate in both national and state polls.
The bottom line: If AtlasIntel’s polling on NC is even close to being right, Trump wins in a landslide.
If Trump underperforms AtlasIntel’s projection by a full point, he still wins the electoral collage.
We’ll wait and see but it’s looking pretty positive for our 45th President to be our 47th President.
As our President always says “We’ll see what happens.”
I’ll say one thing…Trump has impressed the heck out of me this election. His work ethic, willingness to adopt new strategies, willingness to listen to others and implement their advice, his courage, his obvious love for The People…
Trump deserves this and we deserve him.
I also like JD so far.
Agree!
Agree with all you said but I might substitute “we deserve him” with “we are lucky to have him”.
JD was a wonderful choice for Veep! He is as good for his ticket as Walz is bad for his.
He was also the 46th president, but they stole him from us.
The 45th and 47th presidencies always bugs me; no way Biden should be given credit for a “presidency” after knowingly entering stolen office via election fraud.
Well if baseball could keep Pete Rose out of the Hall of Fame, history can certain affix a large asterisk to the number “46.”
I’m getting a T Shirt done with 45 -46-47 and Trumps silhouette on it
I agree…but maybe the country needed 4 years under Biden to wake the hell up and smell the coffee!
I’ll be praying until he closes the White House doors, and sits at the desk! But in my heart, I know he’s won.
Time to turn off the noise and simply vote
⬆ ⬆ ⬆ ⬆ ⬆
I’m in Wisconsin, family business, and you wouldn’t believe the non stop political commercials, it’s nauseating
That being said, the local news just said that every poll has Harris winning and the “surprise poll” of Iowa to Harris by 3
I wanted to vomit
Just research who owns your local news station or newspaper and you will have the answer to their spin.
Polls have become weaponized. Drive around and Trump signs outnumber harris signs around 30 to 1.
Not where I live in central Texas, Harris signs outnumbered Trump
I am going people don’t want to advertise that they are supporting Trump
This is not Austin but close , 10 years ago this was solid red area
Yeah, but did all the Harris signs go up basically overnight, and in odd places (people who never had political signs before, no Harris signs in yards full of other signs, etc., as compared to Trump signs that have been up for months or years, are homemade, and they paid for them themselves because local GOPs led by RINOs “didn’t have Trump signs available”. That’s what happened where I am. Low-information voters might think there are more Harris signs, but I saw one Biden sign all year before the Harris signs sprang up all at once a few weeks ago. (This is in a blue corner of a blue county of a blue state.)
No these people have been voting democrat for sometime and all the houses that were sold seemed to have been sold to democrats unfortunately
Democrats need to get back to Cali!
I’m in central Texas, also. Plenty of Harris signs in my neighborhood. But, you know what? I honestly don’t think they are indicative of necessarily massive support. Trump voters (including me) are much more discrete. We’re out there. When I went to early vote on day one, the ambiance definitely felt like a Trump collection of voters.
I’m in central Texas on the lake. One lonely Harris sign by a single middle aged female. Cares for her elderly Mom. Nice person but deceived. Plumber contractor 2 houses away has had a F…Joe Biden banner hanging since 2016. it should be F…Joe’s radical Marxist handlers. The WEF Schwab/Soros types. Joe is a very sick man with serious dementia. So proud of our Pastor. He made a great case for voting for the candidate that most represented the moral authority of the Bible the last 2 Sundays. Calling Trump by name! 🙏 🙏 🙏 Fight, fight, fight!
The large number of Harris signs that went up seemingly overnight are part of the effort to create the perception that it’s close enough to steal. I’m not denying there is some support, but the number of signs where they’ve never been before accompanied by almost none of the other D candidates suggests to me that the local “canvassers” are pushing those on their lists to get those signs up. Every time the “canvassers” show up there’s a number of extra signs-many of which disappear when the lawn is mowed and they need to be moved.
The signs are not indicative of support. I agree. In CT they are giving them away. Your don’t have to donate or do anything. They are showing up to registered Dem homes and asking them to put them up, usually with the local candidates.
I was told by a person who is heavily involved in local politics that they only way they are getting permission is by providing local (our town) political signs along with them. They give them all away for free with the caveat being you have to display the Harris sign too. Everything with them is fraudulent and built on lies.
And Nate Silver, a well known Democrat pollster, called these called polls out. Said too many are putting their finger on the scale and deceiving the public. He’s no where near a conservative and he’s sick of it.
True here in my state. It was also true in Wisconsin where I visited not want in a big city
You can’t believe the polls and the news when it comes to say KH is winning. They do this as a psyop. I believe Trump will win WI and MI – we speak LIFE over these 2 states.
Too much corruption in those 2 states.
Well the poll showing her up by 3 in Iowa is definitely done by someone who likes the devil’s lettuce 😆
I still don’t know how you overcome numbers like these
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/11/breaking-shady-election-group-dumps-90000-ballot-registrations/
You demand that our elections actually follow our election laws, that’s how.
Ok that will do it
The RNC must sue.
Poor choice of words, Dug. ROFLMAO Doug Emhoff: “Kamala Did What Kamala Always Does. She Put Her Head Down and Went to Work” https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/11/doug-emhoffs-closing-message-kamala-did-what-kamala/
I bet he’s sleeping on the floor tonight.
That’s what Willie and Montel said about her too !!
That was one of the two funniest stories I saw on GWP tonight. 😂
The other was titled People with Harris Signs in Panic After Receiving Letters and Postcards Thanking Them for ‘Volunteering’ to House Migrant Families
Personally knew the steal was in when the whole pause thing happened in 2020. Don’t think any MSM will be all that amped up to call a PDT landslide. Even if the Cackling Ho is getting crushed, they’ll go immediately to the 100s of lawsuits “which could still decide the outcome”
Yep. Deflect and obfuscate until the lawfare tsunami begins, then shift to the legitimacy of the challenges and the righteousness of the violence that begins. Even a PDJT landslide won’t stop the resistance.
Easy no damn standing. Just like they did on 2020…oh wait, the marxist judges will change course this time.
Speaking of elections, only US citizens may vote in ANY election in the US, federal, state, and local. Non-citizens cannot vote. Furthermore, to become a citizen, an applicant is required to demonstrate a proficiency in spoken and written English.
So, since EVERYONE who can legally vote speaks and reads English, why are ballots available in multiple non-English languages?
As the Nuns who taught me in grade school said “It’s a mystery.”
Fences are also used and designed to keep the supposed insane inside of their asylums.
A name is a name no matter what language it is in.
Tax levy’s, Constitutional Amendments, Issues are not.
so what exactly has changed since the fake election of 2020??
just any one thing?
Hopium.
X.
At least 100 million Americans are aware of the theft in 2020 and are watching.
Inflation. Two wars.
Theee.
Here’s something. Ned Ryun has been working a plan:
“I believe that action is the soul of restoration—not talk, not white papers, but actually personally, as best I can, initiating meaningful, purposeful action. I began laying plans in December of 2022 as to how we would never ever let the midterms happen again. I pitched donors the plan in January of 2023, proposing that we do two pilot programs that year as we also prioritized and emphasized a Ballot Out, Ballot In training initiative with American Majority immediately in 2023 to prepare the grassroots for the real fight in 2024.”
https://amgreatness.com/2024/11/04/from-midterms-to-momentum-the-battle-for-absentee-ballots-and-early-votes/
It’s a great read. They have been very busy.
Is everybody forgetting the massive fraud of 2020 / 22 !?
Do you REALLY think the democrats are going to peacefully return power to the man they STOLE it from!? 🤷♂️ 🙄 😡
Yes. I think they will. The money behind them will decide that it’s only 4 years, they can still make money in the meantime while they wai tit out and groom someone to go against Vance in 2028, and it is not worth coming out from behind the curtain now. Oh, they may send some looneys out into the street, but their racial and religious bases have splintered and much of the radical left from 2020 has moved on to other stuff.
I pray you are correct.
This.
Are you even following anything that’s going on?
All the fraud out in the open this time..detected in real time.
They’d have a hard time pulling this one off.
Too many awake voters with their eyes on them.,This is a totally different landscape from 2020.
Are you?
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/11/breaking-shady-election-group-dumps-90000-ballot-registrations/
This is just one example.
I’m praying for Trump’s victory, but we have to be ready to battle the fraudulent results AFTER the election.
You are right, but I see people ready for that fight, people who had no idea there was a battle going on in2020.
Sundance said back when Kamala was installed that if they put her in, that is because she is sacrificial lamb. Shapiro and Newsom and Whitmer did not want to blow their national chances on an unwinnable election. Dems will regroup and come back with a stronger candidate in 4 years.
I think they’ve come too far to give up power now.
They thought so in 2020, which is why they STOLE it.
We shall see…
Well, they are planning to collapse the economy, start a civil war, promote violence, and start a global war to reduce the population… so they can blame it all on Trump.
Don’t know if anyone here has ever watched West Side Story. Can’t believe this was on TV and my parents allowed me to watch it.
Anyways, wish I could move my body like this but this song “Keep It Cool” is the advice I am giving myself.
West Side Story : Keep it Cool
Regrets for the double posting.
I’ve only watched it somewhere between 10 and 20 times – lost count.
“Cool” is one of the best ever combos of music with dance in any of the great musicals of the prior century.
Agreed. One of my all-time fav musicals 🙂
Trafalgar was pretty much right on in 2016. But in 2020 he was not. For instance, I am fairly certain he called Michigan for Trump in that election. He wasn’t wrong; but he can only poll voters, not ballots. If I were interviewing him I would ask what Trafalgar has done in terms of its methodology since 2020 to account for the “votes” versus “ballots” differential.
Here’s an early bellweather county to watch on election night.
Florida polls close at 7 pm and they are one of the fastest to count their votes in the country. Since 1976, Pinellas county has voted for the presidential winner in 10 of the last 11 elections, having missed Gore in 2000. Biden won Pinellas county in 2020 by 1,241 votes, or 0.3%, 277,450 to 276,209. With early voting this time around, Republicans lead Democrats in ballots cast by over 17,000 votes. In 2020, Democrats won early ballots by 15,000. Of course there are also Independent ballots cast as well. But it looks very good for President Trump to take the county by a sizeable margin.
The dims got weed and abortion on the Florida ballot to get their fans to turn out and vote.
It isn’t working for them. Republicans lead Democrats in early ballots by well over 800,000.
Question: How is this known? What is it that is divulging that R’s lead D’s in early balloting?
https://flvoicenews.com/florida-ge-live-data/
Will somebody tell Bow Tie Bobby that Biden Didnt Win and to stop pretending.
Sean Hannity was all in on the “neck and neck” narrative earlier, but I don’t think Trump will let it happen again. Raskin, Rafenspurger, and the SOS from Arizona (probably others) are going to try to muck up the works as much as possible, and I think SCOTUS will wind up ruling in Trumps favor around Tuesday the 19th. Hope for the best, but expect the worst.
I anticipate the SCOTUS will allow the lawfare to proceed through the courts before eventually ruling on any issue(s) that could change the overall outcome. That process will very likely be lengthy. I won’t be surprised if the final outcome is not declared until December or later, even if the numbers greatly favor PDJT.
Edit for grammar.
You “expect the worst”– I refuse!
🙏 For Elon Musk and X… without him we wouldn’t have had this opportunity to fight fair.
….Elon and RFK2!
Cahaly didn’t really tell us anything we didn’t already know. Doesn’t he pay any attention to the early voting?
For him to say if Florida is going for Trump by only 1-2% it will be a bad night for him, it’s obvious he isn’t looking at early voting ballots in FL which have Republicans ahead of Democrat ballots cast by well over 800,000. The total voted of over 8 million is over 70% of the 2020 final vote of 11 million. Of course there are Independents as well, but I’m sure they are going for Trump by a sizeable margin. Does this guy really think Democrats will blow out Republicans in FL on election day by 2-1 or better? Give me a break! These pollsters are worthless.
One particular angle of interest for the 24/48/72 hour
period beginning on Tuesday is this: NEW to this cycle’s
Electioneering Gameplay, simmering underneath the
surface, is {A}RTIFICIAL {I}NTELLIGENCE. Regardless
of trends to be watched, this New Participant is very
unpredictable and stealthy and lightning quick.
According to Bannon, there will be no earth shattering Dem surge on Nov. 5th. This is because Dem votes from 2020 were phantom ballot voters or double counts and they were not individual eligible voters.
The manufactured covid mail in ballots turned 2020 for Biden, but that will not repeat again in 2024. They now have to rely on actual people to vote in huge numbers for Kamala tomorrow. Not happening.
Look for Trump to Carry Bucks County PA on election night.
2016 – Hillary by 2,699 votes – Reg Data 2016 D – 198007, R – 188625
2020 – Biden by 17,345 votes – Reg Data 2020 D – 208890, R – 198632
Mail – Biden 85,839 – Mail Party Split D – 98,578, R – 43020
ED – Trump 68494
2024 – Reg Data 2024 D – 200767, R – 206520
Mail Party Split as of Sunday 8:00AM
D – 65241, R – 42904
In 2020 Biden got a Net vote gain of 17K votes from Buck BUT IT WAS DUE TO MAIL IN VOTE.
Trump won the Election day vote by 68494 votes and Biden won the Mail in Vote by 85,839.
Harris WILL NOT net 85,839 votes from the Mail this election why.
The Republicans have almost 100% of their 2020 mail in vote
The Democrats only have 66% of their 2020 mail in vote.
Right now, they are missing 33,337 mail in votes from 2020.
Regarding the 33,337 mail votes: could it be that the Democrats are printing and marking them up in some back room?
Why are you dooming??
They can’t just print mail in ballots, I don’t think you understand how the stole the election in 2020 in PA, it was from mail in ballots, which were fraudulently requested and returned.
They only have a MAX of 11,412 more mail votes they could return.
They will not return 100% of their mail in votes.
So they can at most reduce the 33,337 votes down to 21,925
In the worst case they have a 21925 mail in vote deficit
Word from a retired judge I spoke with in PA is they think Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) may even be in play. Any thoughts on that?
🎯
Part of that deficit comes from erroneous dirty voter rolls, dead people, double entries, non citizens, etc…so I agree, they will not be printing fake ballots again.
It is on a truck standing by like last time. But if we blow them out in VA, NH & NJ they won’t add those ballots because it would be too obvious.
I agree…see my post above about phantom ballots and double counts.
Those in the know say to watch Virginia – polls close early and if close at all will bode well for President Trump………
Praying that PDJT wins VA and NC. Imagine the joy resulting from the chaos created among the leftist talking heads so early in the evening.
Trump back here on Monday (today) . Here all weekend.
2nd gentleman (or 1st or whatever the H he is) also here. He won’t MOVE A NEEDLE…..
As of this morning, major pollster says dems down MAJOR deficit since 2020. Thinks Trump takes NC by 5.1%. He was spot on in 2020 and 2016. He SEES NC trends. RURAL is turning out MASSIVELY!!! Good news for NC.
AND, NC has FULL ID requirements to vote. No ID, NO VOTING…..
Polling shows who will vote, polling doesn’t show who won’t vote.
100 million people not voting?
“More Than 100M people of faith could sit out 2024 election; study” https://www.christianpost.com/news/over-32m-christian-churchgoers-likely-wont-vote-in-2024-study.html
“Millions of Christians not planning to vote this November, could shape election: Study” https://justthenews.com/nation/religion/millions-christians-may-choose-not-vote-november-study
Christians Can Reform and Save Our Nation on Nov 5
https://www.newsmax.com/jeffgrenell/pastors-scripture-spiritual/2024/10/29/id/1185895/
What have Christion leaders done to stop Kamala Harris from winning on Nov 5?
When it comes to very large churches, they’re increasingly health and wealth social clubs.
1000%.
I remember that imbecile Jerry Falwell’s Moral Majority pulling the same crap against Reagan!
Surprise me on Dec 20 (gore v bush) when the courts get done screwin’ around … just sayin’
Steve Bannon “Victory is at hand” – Highest criminal injustice … mentions Merrick Garland and weaponization of Justice Dept by Pelosi, Garland and Kamala – reason why the First Step Act was not implemented (because) .. this is a sure win for PDJT – talks grass roots democracy of MAGA and urges PDJT on election night to inform the American citizens – walk people thro state by state – to prevent the dark of night cheating of 2020.
Tomorrow night, at 6pm your area, ask all friends and family to pray for our nation.
I have a note in the kitchen to remind me.
Look for Trump to out perform the polls. If he does, it’s good thing. If he doesn’t, if the polls are accurate or If he does worse, that is very, very bad
The MSM is lying to you – especially FOX news.
I do not believe it is a close race.
Exclusive–Rasmussen Head Pollster Predicts Trump Landslide, Likens to 1980 Reagan-Carter Election,
‘Major Political Realignment’
By Joshua Klein
Breitbart
11/2/24
Former President Donald Trump is poised to secure a significant electoral victory, potentially
“sweeping battleground states,” according to Rasmussen’s head pollster, who sees the current race favoring Trump in the national popular vote, suggesting a larger “political realignment” is underway, & foreseeing an outcome that could echo — or even exceed — Ronald Reagan’s historic landslide win over Jimmy Carter in 1980.
In a striking forecast days before the 2024 presidential election, Rasmussen’s head pollster, Mark Mitchell, is suggesting that Donald Trump will secure a strong lead nationally and dominate in key battleground states, positioning him for a sweeping victory. Mitchell even foresees a potential flip of Virginia and New Hampshire, adding that other states, like Minnesota or New Mexico, might follow suit.
Rasmussen is the most well known and accurate poll there is.
https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2024/11/02/exclusive-rasmussen-head-pollster-predicts-trump-landslide-likens-to-1980-reagan-carter-election-major-political-realignment/
TRUMP 2024!
Cats and Cosby 5 pm show on 77 abc are also spreading the fake polls on how “incredibly tight” the race is. I think they should consult other pollsters as I think it is not close either. Not sure why they are going along with the oush polls to create plausibility for the steal.
oops – push polls
That’s an amazing prediction…with God on Pres.Trump’s shoulder it is highly likely. Keep praying for that to happen and shake up the political landscape here and around the world.
Nate Silver Claims Pollsters Are ‘Putting Their Finger on the Scale’ to Make It Appear the Race Is Close
(He’s voting for knee pads)
By Rick Moran
11/1/24
PJ Media
“Pollsters were ‘herding’ their numbers, or using past results to affect current ones, to keep VP Harris and former President Trump to within a point or two of each other each time” reports the New York Post.
“I kind of trust pollsters less,” Silver said on his podcast, name-checking Emerson College. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ No! You’re f****** herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” He fumed.
“Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys,” Silver vented.
“You are lying! You’re putting your f****** finger on the scale!’”
IMO, it’s to give room to knee pads to have a CHEAT WIN and make it look plausible and ALL of the MSM are in on it.
https://pjmedia.com/rick-moran/2024/11/01/nate-silver-claims-pollsters-are-putting-their-finger-on-the-scale-make-it-appera-the-race-is-close-n4933858?utm_source=pjmedia&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl_pm&bcid=734b0d014c7fe06ea326043373523c1ead30fb8f2001b12066fff72628d9be36&lctg=19987576
Already knee pads is saying it will take a LONG time to count everyone’s vote.
BULL, they will try their damndest to make up the difference to steal Trump’s win again.
That is what really has me worried. This election is for the ball game.
Trump 2024
That’s why every single Conservative soul in this country HAS to vote. If it’s not too big to rig, they will indeed steal it. I’ve taken several people to the polls that I had to argue with to get them to vote as some believed Trump was going to win in a landslide and it wasn’t necessary to stand in line and others believe Camel Toe is going to steal it and voting is a waste of time. The clincher for them was asking if they’d prefer a Demwit representing TX along with that stinking Cornyn or Cruz. That DID concern them; thus they agreed to go. We made a party out of it. I stood in line with them to try to keep them entertained and we all went out to eat together afterwards. They actually seemed to be elated about voting after it was said and done.
I also repeatedly told them to check their ballots before running through the machine for mistakes and talked them into voting for Chip Roy as Trump will need that damned RINO in the House. My tongue is raw from biting it as I did NOT want to help that SOB get elected after spreading the word about him all this year, but I felt I was doing what had to be done.
Moreno is winning Ohio.
Trump has way too big of a lead in Ohio for him not to.
As far as Polls go Atlas Intel was the closest of all polls to getting it right in 2020.
I think Trump wins the popular vote this time. If that happens,MSM has two choices Stop their program/agenda/woke.
Or push the majority of the country farther away from their drivel.
Remember the ‘Red Wave’? Me, too,
big clue ,to me anyway. 2020 early vote was 101 million. only 75 million today. the pandemic drop boxes and other shenanigans by the swing ‘cities’ ,not states, made up that big number. they did steal the 2020 election. imho.
What happens after midnight????
If the vote counting is stopped in the middle of the night, we’ll all know what’s going on.
“If the vote counting is stopped in the middle of the night, we’ll all know what’s going on.” I agree. I hope the Trump team has a foolproof plan to address this scenario instantly and in real time this time.
Not you to you: – addressed generally – please don’t refer to the cheat as shenanigan’s. Disenfranchising an entire country is not a shenanigan, it is a serious crime! (again, not to you – just thought it was an opportune moment to bring it up)
What will election night be like this time around? I dread watching it transpire, knowing that the left and elite RINOs are still attempting a steal or may be planning some kind of Jan 6 False Flag event.
The Search Engines are still censoring facts and spewing election interfering anti-Trump propaganda.
Last night, after watching a pro-Trump video by Nicole Shanahan, I searched for the name of a ‘female who changed from Democrat to Trump supporter’ on both Google and DuckDuckGo.
I got nothing but propaganda – ‘150 Republicans against Trump’ and so on. Never got anything related to my query.
So, who is the female former Democrat at :47 in this video? https://x.com/NicoleShanahan/status/1853116147341967534
I was trying to find out why she and Tulsi Gabbard came before JD Vance in this video… is it an attempt to win female voters?
This is not an official authorized Trump ad, right?
My suspicious cat has had 4 generations of suspicious kittens since the Plannedemic, the 2020 stolen election and January 6 – not to mention 4 years of the Biden-Harris fake administration.
I’ve had it with PACs and the establishment science (Climate hoax) medical community (owned by big pharma and the big hospital corps).
I dread the coverage of election night 2024 the violent, destructive aftermath shenanigans, planned by evildoers, both the elite and the imported illegal thugs.
Turns out – it is Nicole Shanahan, who posted the video on her X/Twitter feed – RFK Jr’s running mate and the video was designed to win women to Trump MAGA and MAHA.
President Trump will win Again!!
100,000,000 + VOTES 4
DONALD JOHN TRUMP
300 + ELECTORAL COLLEGE
. (Period)
from your lips to God’s ears!
Moreno is down .8% in Ohio? It’s surprising yet not surprising to me. In 2018 I was helping distribute flyers for DeWine for governor and Renacci for Senate. One person who was helping with this told me that when people actually answered the door and she had a chance to talk to them, many said they supported DeWine but they liked Sherrod Brown so they would not be voting for Renacci. I don’t get it, but Brown has been able to play the “blue-collar” advocate role very well over the years.
My other concern for Ohio is the 6th district Congressional seat vacated by Bill Johnson, who jumped ship and betrayed his voters before the end of his term. Mike Rulli is a well-known businessman and seems like a nice guy.
He did beat Kripchak for the unexpired term in a special election.
Now the two are running in the regular election in a Presidential election year that is going to bring out a lot more voters (and ballots!). Kripchak is a formidable opponent, although I haven’t seen much of a campaign from either candidate aside from expensive mailers from both and a very visible electronic billboard for Kripchak.
This is a very conservative district, but I have seen how some are willing to vote for Dem Brown even when voting for Republican DeWine, so I am praying hard for this Congressional seat as well as for the Senate seat.
Brown is not wining he’s going to lose by atleast 1.5 percentage points.
Trump has to big of a lead for his supporters to not pull Moreno over the finish line. IMHO .
No disrespect towards your opinion . I know we both want to see Brown gone.
That is good to hear. I heard Trafalgar mention Moreno down by .8 and thought percents but it’s down .8 of a point.
Still, I will take your stats. I have been voting against Brown for a long time. Would love to see him go.
I can’t.
Hubby and I voted early and voted RED. 🇺🇸
If you’ve done everything you could to help PDJT win, then I recommend you turn off the TV and spend the night with a good book, or even the Good Book. The emotional rollercoaster isn’t worth the ride, and the legacy media will do everything they can to wish a Harris victory/installment into being.
No way! I’m watching it all having a party,Not sure how anyone could not watch it. This is going to be epic
Hope I still have a working TV Wednesday.🤣
I honestly think Trumps going to it all.👍
Regardless of the outcome there will be a lot of P…….ed off people.
I want to watch the liberal heads explode live!
Basically if Trump is doing well it will be a good night for Trump. If Trump is doing poorly it will be a bad night for Trump.
I will absolutely avoid FAUX NEWS on election night. They were absolutely disgraceful. Zero integrity.
Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
Will America vote for more inflation, open borders and a bad economy?