[National Hurricane Center Link] Tropical Storm Ian has remained moving mostly westward throughout the previous 12 hours pushing the projected U.S. impact cone slightly further North into the big bend area of Florida. However, everyone on Florida’s west and gulf coast should pay close attention, and residents in Louisiana, Mississippi and the Alabama coast should not dismiss this storm.
With more favorable conditions for storm development, TS Ian is now projected to intensify and be a major hurricane prior to arrival on the west coast of Cuba. That is a significant shift in the intensity forecast. However, with the westward shift, the timeline is now delayed (see map below). All U.S. gulf coast residents should be taking precautions and preparing for potential storm impacts with a path still uncertain.
(NHC) At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 79.8 West. Ian is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a similar forward speed is expected later today, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. (more)
There is no cause for alarm, but with many new Florida residents’ officials are more firmly emphasizing preparation. Several FL Civilian Emergency Response Teams (CERT) are now preparing, as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency – releasing additional responding resources. Take this storm seriously, but do not be alarmed; instead, take proactive steps to safeguard yourself and your family.
The westward storm movement has added one or two days to the projected U.S. landfall.
Proactively, do all your laundry. Bleach sanitize and air dry all your water storage containers including the bathtub, today. Do not panic if you cannot find bottled water. You can clean, sanitize and put a fresh garbage bag inside any trash can(s), then fill it/them with water from the shower. This is an old school FL cracker way to prepare for water shortages that I still do every time. Works like a charm. You can also manually flush toilets with buckets of water.
Check your hurricane supplies of shelf-stable food, water, medicine and don’t forget pets. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Everything is replaceable, except you and your family. We have a lot of Treepers in the path of this storm. If you need assistance, use the comments section of any ‘Update thread’ to reach out, or use the email address in the upper right of the site.
Right now, you are in control. Have a solid plan, work that plan – stay busy, and don’t get caught up in the hysteria. Try to avoid national media hype. Stay updated via your local news stations. Monday afternoon/evening looks like the key day impact zones will be identified. Reach out to your neighbors; touch-base and check to see if they are okay or need anything. Community restoration begins before the storm arrives. Look out for each-other.
Regarding any evacuation plan, please pay attention to your local officials who will be coordinating with state Dept. of Transportation. As the path and impact zone of the storm becomes more predictable your local officials will alert to best route(s) for evacuation.
For those in the cone of uncertainty; remember, planning and proactive measures taken now can significantly reduce stress in the days ahead. Plan when to make the best decision on any evacuation (if needed) consider Monday the decision time-frame. As a general rule: take cover from wind – but evacuate away from water.
DAY ONE (Sat/Sun)
- Determine Your Risk
- Make a Written Plan
- Develop an Evacuation Plan
- Inventory hurricane/storm supplies.
- Withdraw cash based on plan/need.
- Get gas and storm supplies
DAY TWO (Sun/Mon)
- Get Storm Update
- Assemble and purchase any missing Hurricane Supplies
- Contact Insurance Company – Updates
- Secure Important Papers.
- Update/upload your phone data.
- Strengthen and Secure Your Home
- Discuss Evacuation Decision with your Family.
- Fill freezer with 3/4 full water jugs.
DAY THREE (Tue/Wed)
- Get Storm Update
- Re-Evaluate your Supplies based on storm update
- Finish last minute preparation
- Plan for a minimum of THREE DAYS without power
- Assist Your Neighbors
- If Needed – Evacuate Your Family
.
Communication is important. Update your friends and family contact list. Stay in touch with family and friends, let them know your plans. Select a single point of contact for communication from you that all others can then contact for updates if needed.
Today/tomorrow are good days to organize your important papers, insurance forms, personal papers and place them in one ‘ready-to-go’ location.
Evaluate your personal hurricane and storm supplies; update and replace anything you might have used. Assess, modify and/or update any possible evacuation plans based on your location, and/or any changes to your family status. Fill car with gasoline. Review prescriptions, refill if needed.
Check your shutters and window coverings; test your generator; re-organize and familiarize yourself with all of your supplies and hardware. Check batteries in portable tools; locate tools you might need; walk your property to consider what you may need to do based on the storm’s path. All decisions are yours. You are in control.
Consider travel plans based on roads and traffic density. Being proactive now helps to keep any future stress level low. You are in control. If you have pets, additional plans may be needed.
One possible proactive measure is to make a hotel reservation further inland that you would consider evacuating to. Follow updates of the storms’ progress; make reservations if determined; you can always cancel if not needed. It is better to have a secondary evacuation place established in advance. Being proactive reduces stress. Even if you wait until much later to cancel, it is better to pay a cancellation fee (usually one night charge) than to not have a plan on where to go. Trust me, it’s worth it. Protect your family. Make the booking decision in the next 36 hrs.
♦ Look over the National Hurricane Center resources for planning assistance.
♦ Also a great resource – CREATE A PLAN
Place your frozen foods in a garbage bag and set the bag in the freezer and fridge. If you have to evacuate and the power goes out you can remove the bag and your freezer and fridge stay clean.
I like it.
Good idea, Lynne.
If you have a generator, you can run it 15 to 20 minutes every 3 to 4 hours to keep food frozen and fridges at correct temp.
Stretches your fuel out considerably. Keep a freezer thermometer on hand.
A dual fuel generator can use gasoline or propane.
Also, fill plastic water bottles up with water. Leave about three inches for expansion. Use to fill any open space in the freezer. I believe Sundance mentioned that.
1 gallon ziploc bags double lined. filled with water..are greta way to keep freezer cold.
Be safe everyone. With the way 2022 is going it could be a nasty storm.
Sage advice, SD. Prayers to all Treepers. Donated to the CTH this morning. I absolutely love this refuge
I’m a widow w small dog and live in Central Florida east coast. I spent yesterday shoring up everything, making certain I had supplies, food, meds, documents and gas. I’ve always evacuated in past, ahead of mandatory evacuations. Now, I’m hesitant to leave if there is an evacuation. With everything going on, if you do leave and are given green light for return, there are a lot of what ifs. What if we are unable to get gas, power, water, food, supplies. Of course they were issues with past storms but a lot has changed with Biden at the helm. Idk.
Hang in there, Abster. We’re rooting for you with lots of prayers.
If the storm gets over to the east coast central side the wind field will be knocked down considerably. There’s a lot of difference between 75mph and 115mph. Wind would be from the southwest and then northwest.
I haven’t left a place yet. I’ve been through 138 mph just fine, and it sucks the water out of the sink P-traps and toilet bowl as the eye passes and pressure shifts, but that’s doubtful at your location. On Irma the eye was 30 miles to the west away and we got 115 mph gusts…no problems with the house. Even better yet is that we don’t have Miami Dade building code over here, so, the roof/window structures aren’t that beefed up. That’s not to say the outside of the house is not trashed with limbs and leaves and it’s hot as hell with the AC gone for a couple of days. But, with the backup power we get through it.
Just keep doing what you’re doing and keep watching the landfall track.
Stay safe, Abster; praying for you!
I would evacuate. From my point of view, there’s no reason to stay in the path of a storm like this. DeSantis is a good & effective governor; he will mobilize what’s needed as quickly as he can–and have things in place for the after storm recovery, too. Protect yourself & your pup & find a nice, comfy place outside Florida to wait it out . . . . May God PROTECT & GUIDE YOU–and also give you the WISDOM you need to make the BEST decisions for yourself & your pup. 🙂
Only evacuate if you live by the water. It’s very hard to get back home once you leave.
After Katrina it was very hard to get back home. Bridges were messed up big time. It took us 3 days to get back home, thankfully we only had minor damage. The flooding stopped just inches from my door.
Central Florida has more than its fair share of bridges, often called causeways.
Beware of FEMA. I can’t say I could trust anything from the federal dictatorship.
Lost everything in Laura. The organization that helped SW Louisiana the most was Samaritan’s Purse. Can’t say enough good things about all of them. We still had them here a year and a half after the storm. They will be there for y’all.🙏🏻♥️🙏🏻
Nice.
THIS^^^
Please do not wait until “you must”. Remember this: lots of people will panic when “they must”. It gets very ugly and difficult to bug out when everyone is on the road trying to get out of dodge. Be early, be safe.
Think of it this way: when you come back you will be needed to help out in recovery. Leaving early means you are not going to be on the other side of the crisis pool. Be the positive side of the crisis pool. Bugging out early gives you this opportunity. Don’t let someone lead you into believing that “riding it out” is okay and valiant. It is foolish and proven to be foolish. You can always watch the disaster unfold from a safe distance if spectating is your thing. Emergency services and first responders are going to be overwhelmed. When you leave, that is one less person they need to spend resources and time and energy protecting! Fatigue is a very real thing for first responders. Do your part so they are as effective as they can possibly be!
God Bless America
If you leave in FL, check in with MyFlordia(dot)com (via smart phone), it will be a very valuabkle source for damage, recovery and open road/bridge reports, as well as relief assistance for FL residents,…. far better than FEMA or MSM.
If you are able to keep in touch with us, please do so, but firstly stay safe.
I think a good rule of thumb adapts well here;
“If ANYONE says, or even THINKS “Should I/we call 911?” you SHOULD.
If your thinking “SHOULD I evacuate?” you SHOULD.
Simplifies things enormously, and helps protect against that river in Egypt.
A good thing to note for people new to the state is that first responders will not come out in the middle of a hurricane to rescue people who did not heed evacuation warnings. They hunker down for their safety and wait until the hurricane storm conditions have passed before they respond to calls.
THIS^ and it’s not even a matter of choice. it boils down to logistics. Roads need to be passable. And equipement and resources must be able to transit.
Hurricanes dictate the speed and practical strategies to get help established. In most cases, people are NOT evacuated in the first few days of recovery. A triage strategy is used. Only those with immediate medical need are evacuated. For those not in immediate medical need, they are left with some supplies (or often none at all). First responders in the first few days are performed a surveillance and building a plan to recovery people based on the evaluation of where resources are best utilized. Some areas are literally too costly in terms of logistical requirement and time consumed to consider. There is a reason why evacuation orders are made strictly in certain areas. if you hear that, take heed. It’s not going to be pleasant experience AT ALL if you stay in these strict evacuation ordered areas! Just leave. You can always come back when it makes sense to come back. You don’t want to get stuck living a caveman experience. most people simply cannot operate and function for more than a couple of days without ac and good water and food. It’s not simply a quality of life. it’s KNOWING YOUR LIMITS. Don’t let the hurricane prove your perceived limits are very wrong. leave and leave early.
God Bless America
Yes and if you can, Abster, there are lovely places up towards Appalachia, with small town hotels that would welcome you and your pup. Be safe. Will be thinking of you
Also, interstate 75 is fast but goes through Atlanta which is nerve wracking for some of us. Too many lanes, too fast, too many lane switches.
There are other highways that take you up to Dothan and beyond, avoiding interstates. I prefer the alternate slower routes.
#me too! And when you stop at a local establishment they will be friendly and helpful.
THIS ^^^
good on you Dutch! this is the correct advise and thinking on this matter.
do not wait..if you can leave do it as soon as you can. it’s easy to be wrong and go back home. It’s very dangerous to wait where the opportunity to leave closes down rapidly. remember: lots of people are going to wait until the last minute and will panic. That creates an entirely different kind of avoidable risk.
don’t be that person. if you can leave, do it.
God Bless America
I’m in Melbourne. Where are you?
Cocoa Beach
Hopefully, you won’t have to worry about evacuations. But if you do, take note they will close the causeway on 520 into and out of Merritt Island way before hurricane conditions arise.
If there is something you need, let me know. Perhaps we can communicate somehow.
Evacuate. The rescue vehicles will NOT go over the causeways in 50 mph winds. Ian WILL kick those up starting Tuesday night at 8 pm. Do not tarry. The causeways get crowded. There will be gas in Titusville, Cocoa and Melbourne for your trip back. For Ian, driving south and going inland will work. My son likes to book a suite at the Disney resorts.
Abster,
I live in the Big Bend area and I will tell you from my experience. If you change your mind at last minute you may find out like I did that your local law enforcement will have restricted late evacuation due to winds that come in first.
fortunately the road block was not far from my home and I turned back and safely rode it out. That was my first experience after moving here. If your instinct tells you to leave…always go with that and get out early.
Abster, maybe I’m a clueless idiot, but I’m not worried about this one doing much on the Central to Northern East Coast of FL.
I hope that, whatever you decide to do, you can relax into it and go with the flow.
And yes, evacuating can be problematic, both coming and going.
I know people who use ‘canes as a reason for a straight up VACATION.
They choose there next ” Possible ‘Cane Vacation” destinations well before any ‘cane warning.
By the time a ‘Cane Warning is announced, they’re making their reservations and hitting the road, days before anyone else has even *thought* about it!
And then they just chill for a couple weeks and head back after the roads clear up.
It’s pretty brilliant and they’ve gone to some cool places!
Nice if you have the cash flow to do it. My sister does that.
My son does that.
Native Floridian here. Allow me to add my two cents worth:
Forecasts are that the storm will be a Cat 4 by landfall but where the eye will come ashore is still uncertain – various models predict anywhere between Destin and Jax so your guess is as good as theirs. We should know more by tomorrow evening. That said, if you are near the coast and ordered to evacuate, do so.
IF you decide to “ride out” a storm, remember that along the coasts city water is vulnerable to saltwater intrusion, therefore it is advisable to have an adequate supply on hand. If you have a top-loader washer, fill it with ice (if possible) and water, it can provide a lot of drinking water. Fill your bathtubs with water and fill large trash cans with water as well. Trash cans can provide water for flushing if needed.
Secure all loose articles around your property. If you have a pool, do not drain it completely as it could potentially pop out of the ground. Instead, make sure you remove only one quarter of the water as the rain can refill it for you and you avoid overflow damage. Ask me how I know. If the eye of the storm passes over your house, do not leave your home and “explore” or “check the property” even for a few minutes. The second half of a hurricane can slam harder than the beginning. Do not pick up any loose wires or cables; they may be hot and could result in electrocution. Be patient after the storm. Your power may be out – just like millions of others – so it might take some time for the power provider to get to your street.
May the odds be ever in your favor.
And, don’t forget about the displaced critters: rattlesnakes (they float and look like tree branches), citrus rats, cottonmouths, mice, CRs, you know “palmetto bugs”. Sundance has the best easy to read lists!! Pace yourself, take a deep breath and exhale. Do not use candles-fires have historically been a cause of injury and damage. Instead, use flashlights and head lamp.Be careful on ladders and using chain saws. Dont forget playing cards, dominoes, books if you evacuate.
Use the swimming pool water to flush toilets, post landfall. One bucket full works well and the pool will have thousands of gallons. Power can be out from days – to weeks, depending on the extent of damage.
We hear you, and pray for you. Breathe in the Love and Exhale the Fear. Serenity isn’t freedom from the storm, but peace w/in the storm. I am pretty sure Team Rubicon and the Cajun Navy are gearing up, you will get the help and resources you need w/out FJB.
Check the wind predictions from NHC Monday, after they tighten up where it will land and its intensity.
Then, you will have information to decide. If you live on a barrier island (you use a causeway to reach the main peninsula), you want to evacuate if winds are going to be over 50 mph. At 50 mph, the rescue vehicles will not cross the causeways.
Plus, the mainland places you outside the path of ocean/river water. They will tell you to evacuate if that is the case, but, it will be voluntary. Many stay, but, with a small dog and alone, you should leave.
If you are on the mainland and your home is cinder block with windows shuttered or impact windows, you can probably stay put for Ian. The winds are expected to be over 50 mph. If Ian lands as a cat 4, a significant amount of force dissipates crossing land. So, it may be cat 2 on the East side.
In general, cinder block and shutters are good for cat 1, cat 2 and some cat 3. When it gets to cat 4 or cat 5, I want outta there.
I am on the mainland in cinder block with impact windows and my son will board up my sliders. The projected wind speeds do not look too bad for the east coast, so, I am staying put.
I would not worry about Biden. He isn’t in charge. DeSantis is. He has plenty of practice. The people he employs to fix stuff have plenty of practice. FPL is ready. Most of the Mayors also have plenty of practice. The Federal government does not kick in until you have to deal with FEMA after the storm. Publix opens up as fast as possible after the storm. Waffle House stays open as long as possible before the storm. The gas stations prepare for the storms just like FPL and Publix. Take water, blanket, pillow and a little food with you if you leave. Some for your pet too.
“ old school FL cracker way“…
Funny, I love it. Out here in SoCal we are also supposed to store water, rather long term, that way for when the Big One Hits.. obviously, not in the bathtub, but in 50 gallon covered trash cans. A bit more work since water, like gasoline, electricity and natural gas, are very expensive in our Progressive Utopia.
At least, you “Florida Crakers” have a heads up.
So, all of those newcomers to your State, do they “plan” like the San Franciskovich Intelligentsia who expect/DEMAND the Gov. to come in with gallons of Evian water when the SHTF?
Send them back to NYC.
No way to depend on FJB’s FEMA.
Best of luck.
They go absolutely crazy for bags of ice. Seriously crazy. These are generally the section 8 types, if you know what I mean.
New transplants will absolutely freak out when they hear that wind. There is nothing like it and the ‘canes all sound differently.
Irma was my first hurricane, I lived in Central Florida for 18 years without a hurricane threat and minor tropical storms, and then there was Andrew in Homestead and that was a wake-up call, I never paid attention before. Then I had moved out of state and that is when Charley and the rest hit and all my friends lost power inland.
Anyway back to Irma, I thought it was bad and you are right about the wind it sounded like the ebbs and flows of the ocean back and forth all night, it was freaky and when the hurricane winds hit right at midnight I lost power. Single and alone I was terrified. And that was just a cat 1 I cannot imagine being in the middle of anything else. I am still by myself but not as worried about it. Check with me next week lol
Andrew was one bad ass relatively compact hurricane. CAT V. The damage along the eye path was like one would expect from some giant EF-4 tornado. 175 dropping to 165 mph sustained winds. It was the exception to the rule because more deaths were caused by the wind than the storm surge.
What Hurricane Andrew Did to South Florida in 1992 (PHOTOS) | The Weather Channel
My sister lived in Homestead during Andrew and it was the weirdest thing. Her french door glass panels got warped and her other windows, one window blew out completely but the warping it did to the windows and the structure of her house was really strange.
The eye went right over her house. She was in more like the rural area and the closest house next to her was perfect. Some of her trees were ripped right out of the ground.
Her poor pool was damaged and black from all the trees that were in it. Stank like crazy.
A mess for sure. But it was a total disaster down there all over.
Around 5 years ago on AMI my wife and our neighbor evacuated . I decided to stay with the 2 dogs. When the water came up to the garage and the wind making all kinds of noises, I made the choice from sticking it out and then packing up the dogs to get the hell outbwhile I could. The power went out and the place we evacuated to did not lose power. Pray and help others.
It’s a banshee like wail..
For hours on end.
The wind can drive you crazy. Most people who have never experienced a hurricane do not realize how long they last.
It absolutely terrifies people and they WILL DO THE MOST DANGEROUS IRRATIONAL THINGS.
20 minutes before Hurricane Laura, there were THOUSANDS of PEOPLE ON THE ROAD DRIVING LIKE MAD PEOPLE TRYING TO FLEE. 20 minutes …as the winds were already at 70-90 miles and hour…with each minute raising the velocity and FLYING DEBRIS by 10 miles an hour before it ‘”settled” at 160-175 miles an hour.
there were thousands of cars in the ditches and bayous while nearby homes became immediate shelters for the mad max crowd. the problem this created for responders was mind boggling. entire areas already cleared and evacuated earlier in the day, no occupied by people who could not make it out on the roads with no familiarity and no means to tell anyone where they were and what their needs were. It was detective work: look for the abandoned damaged overturned vehicles and try to determine if it was a local neighbor vehicle or one involved in last minute road warrior driving! Not easy. Bullhorns and lots of walking door to door looking for people who should not even be in certain areas. Hit or miss. lots of waster efforts searching for people in the days after, requiring chainsaws, bulldozers and safety crews to even get into some of these areas.
If you can leave do it early and do not wait. the risks of getting stuck is very real.
God Bless America
tonyE, Having lived thru both (EQ prep and ‘Cane prep), I much prefer EQ prep. You know, where you prep ONCE and then *forget* about it.
Cuz nobody knows when the Quake will come. And the only Heads Up you *might* get is from a neighborhood cat or dog who’s sensitive to that stuff.
These week or two “Heads Up” where you’re sitting on pins and needles prepping and waiting for disaster to happen >>>>SUCK!
Sunny, I have noticed the water oaks in my yard have dropped a huge amount of acorns this year. They did the same thing just before Irma. I notice these things because I have spent years installing and maintaining landscapes all over the State.
ha. Noticed some acorns myself a couple days ago. Thought it was interesting , cuz I hadn’t really seen ’em down here before.
Oblong acorns? Also the American Beautyberry bushes are in full blown berry mode. Cool thing about them besides the berries being high in antioxidants and a favorite food of wild turkeys, rubbing a handful of their crushed up leaves on exposed skin is the best skeeter repellent I have ever found. It may not be for everyone, anyone who tries it should do a test patch of skin to make sure they aren’t allergic.
whoah. Thx for the tip on American Beautyberry bug repellent/berries.
It’s a very distinctive looking plant! Will keep my eyes open for it.
Old Florida Cracker Wisdom.
The oaks in Texas are making acorns like crazy this year. I have to run my pool cleaner every day and the yard is full of them. A bunch of grackles have appeared out of nowhere and are eating the acorns.
I’m gonna need more grackles!
Same here in Slidell,…. been netting too many early acrorns from the massive water oak next to the pool.
If you see Frigate birds flying over head near the coast,…. bug out, they know the ‘Cane is coming and leave the area far out in the Gulf of MX where they are normally are found.
Shrimpers who pick up small fish in their nets that have pebbles in their stomachs are another pre-warning sign from Nature,… days before, that a Big Storm is expected in those waters.
If you are a transplant to FL, ask the older Natives, they know what Sundance knows and can advise you,…. just don’t plan to “ride it out” if it’s a Cat 2-3 or above if you are on or near the coast.
This will be the gorilla in the room as to determining the track of Ian. This trough of low pressure will determine where Ian comes ashore more than anything else. If that trough moves off to the east fast enough then Ian is likely to take the more northerly course as shown in the NHC track. If it digs in and persists longer, as the European model runs are forecasting then Tampa look out!
Have family in Tampa providing for handicapped people. They aren’t evacuating for anything. “Tampa hasn’t been hit in over a hundred years” they say. “That makes you overdue” says I.
Take the Scouts way before they went woke: Be prepared. Way better to have and not need than need and not have.
What is particularly challenging is that the window for evacuations out of state is closing. This cold mean many thousands are stuck on roadways attempting to get out of town as the storm comes closer to Florida’s shore.
Try this website. It’s the best I’ve found for tracking storms. The overlays are fantastic.
https://www.windy.com
Based on their current projections, it should come ashore at St. Petersburg, just south of Clearwater.
Love the Windy site.
Thx for posting it, cuz I didn’t have it bookmarked on my new laptop.
A simpler view of the best potential track at this time:
I’ve seen ’em turn 90 degrees on a dime. Irma did that around Naples and Bonita Springs. It cut inland towards us.
Just keep watching the sat images as it gets to within 200-300 miles.
Remember Ivan’s path?
Yep as my favorite local weather guy says the dirty side of the storm.
I don’t relax till that sumb!tch is past Bermuda.
And Rita was dead set on Houston until it took a dog leg towards Beaumont
Rita rolled right up onto Eureka Springs, Arkansas.
Roared for 6 hours as a tropical storm right on top of us. Wild night. Power out and impassable street in front of the house.
The intense pounding of rain on the roof was the weirdest effect.
Charly took a hard right into Charlotte harbor, we evacuated from Tampa. Then didn’t even get any rain. Now we are north an hour so will keep watching.
oh look, there we are about where the T in Tallahassee is. 🙂 Great imagery.
Isn’t that portion of Florida, between Tampa and the panhandle relatively unpopulated, especially near the coast?
Sorta…
The housing structures leave a lot to be desired.
I was just looking at the satellite images (I’m not from Florida), it just doesn’t look like there’s much of anything within 10 miles or more of the coast in that Big Bend area.
We will see how my new roof does that I had installed 2 weeks ago. There are some mobile home communities that will need to evacuate on the Nature Coast. Much of the newer construction has been beefed up out here in recent years, as we are experiencing a huge influx of South Florida types trying to escape the madness.
Oh no! Best of luck. Stay safe.
Insurance cancelled us last month. The new firm demanded a new roof.
They are going for the 10 year cycle on roofs. Won’t work too damn expensive to just replace when not needed. Just because we said so
Yep.
Lots of smaller communities and small ports along that stretch. Crystal River, Homosassa Springs, etc. Crystal River has the largest electrical power generating complex in the whole state right on the coast. They condense salt water to run the turbines. When the “100 year” storm hit about 20 years ago I was down there doing work on coal fired Unit 3 there. The wind drove salt water spray into the transformer stations shorting them out. Back then Unit 3 supplied ALL of the electrical power for Disney World.
Too bad it didn’t take out the once “happiest place on earth” back when we didn’t know what was happening.
I’ve lived through, ridden out many hurricanes. If you want to evacuate, do it NOW! Blessings to all in its path. Pray that He Who calms the winds does that.
That is why I love it out here! It’s called the Nature Coast.
Hard Boil some eggs for later. They’re great if the Electricity goes out!
And still great, even if it doesn’t!
Or buy yourself a jar of pickled eggs. No refrigeration required. As a trucker I Love Dinty Moore chicken & Dumplings and Beef Stew. I use a simple 12 V oven that is the same size as a small tool box. But just as easy to heat up using a little camping stove. Cook it and eat it right out of the can. The pouches of Tuna salad make an easy nonperishable meal also. Some people turn their noses up at it but I find spam with some buffalo sauce like one gets from McDonalds or Arby’s horsey sauce on crackers to be satisfying.
We always had a huge jar of those on the counter when I was a kid.
I was not a fan. Could be tho, that it’s one of those foods that I should try again as an adult.
Who knows, maybe I’d love ’em now.
Ditto for Pigs Feet.
There is also pickled bologna pieces and Polish sausage pieces. My local Menards carries all of them but the pigs feet in their food section.
Big fan of the DMoore beef stew, rah.
I have a similar 12v cooker I now keep in the trunk of my car along with the other “just in case” items. A “must have” back in the “Over the Road” days.
DMoore (20 oz can) offers about 500 calories and ~47% of basic daily protein needs. Sodium is about 100% daily (caution advised).
A time or two (with no cooker) I placed the can on/near the engine block of the car/truck to warm it up. Served with crackers…
Hits the spot, to be sure.
Just about all that stuff is high on sodium but the worst for that is Underwoods spreads it seems to me. Doesn’t matter, Deviled Ham, Roast Beef, Chicken, or Corned beef they are all very salty. I keep some in my truck but I limit how much I eat. Used to love Sardines in mustard sauce but after getting what was apparently a bad can, I stopped eating them. Another good one I keep in the truck for when I want something a bit spicey is Hormell tamales. I keep various cans of soup and one can always find a can of clam chowder in the larder of my truck.
Whole wheat crackers is another staple. Dolly Madison oatmeal cream cookies. Nature Valley peanut butter biscuits. Cans of several kinds of fruit but my favorite is Dole Tropical fruit cocktail. Small cans of various vegetables.
Mine is made by Road Pro. One can find them in about any good sized truck stop and they aren’t expensive. I’ve been driving a truck for 17 years and I just retired my first one this year and bought a new one. That is pretty good service considering that I am now on my 5th GPS and my 3rd CB.
Cans of Vienna Sausages and crackers are very handy, as are deviled ham, Spam and sardines (if you like ’em – I do not.)
Vye Inna sausage….yes please…. 😀
Excellent prepper tips, rah.
I bought an extra 18 eggs for just such an event
Hard boiled eggs are the best!
So filling , for such a little bit of food.
If anything goes wrong in Florida, I’m sure Biden’s handlers will work hard on making FEMA do a crap job…. But then again, I’m sure DeSantis is actually planning on federal assistance being worthless or negative.
The gossamer thin silver lining for Florida this week is “Biden” cancelling his campaigning with Charlie Crist. One small mercy.
Blast! Hat tip on being cited by the Boss, young lady.
🤗!!
hmmmm…..
I actually REALLY hope they re-schedule that thing.
Sounds an ultra- inspiring event for Dem Voters. /s
Yep! Sunny Daze, Val Demings is in hiding!
I had a thought yesterday, looks to be the case: the more west it goes and misses/less land interaction over Cuba then it goes on a more north path longer which leads to a panhandle/ upper west coast landfall.
first.. one thing in the models has not changed for the past few days.. when reaching the southern Gulf of Mexico warm waters.. it will reach a Cat 4 status..
this will be the inflection point.. the beginning of the “hysteria”.. news media will whip it up into a frenzy.. and the hordes will then make a panic rush by Monday/Tuesday.. don’t be one of them..
at the very latest have all of your preps stocked by Monday evening.. then set up your perimeter and fortify your camp by or on Tuesday.. there will always be something to do.. and it will never be enough..
so just keep putting one boot in front of the other.. then hunker down lock and load and make do with what you’ve got.. and remember.. don’t bitch and gripe to others in your foxhole about things you don’t have..
it’s all your fault.. you had the prep time.. and didn’t prep it.. so suck it up and sweat and/or swim it out.. most likely for days..
if you’re on the coast and riding it out.. have a life vest for everybody in your foxhole.. those are lifesavers..
because it’s a big ass ocean out there..
I never thought of having a life vest, but of course, surrounded by water a person would need one. Great advice.
I’m in NCFL ..all good advice… flushing with buckets of water works fine..fill your tub if you have one ..even use pool water if you have one..fill gallon jugs with water now and freeze them..
Good luck to all ..
🇺🇸💪😀👍
An elderly couple at Publix very early on Saturday were asking each other if anyone knew about the storm. I drove by later in the day and the parking lot was like Wednesday before Thanksgiving on steroids. The ones that will be on a 20 minute line tomorrow will be the newbies from the northern states. Stay safe everyone!
And make a list of everything you forgot to purchase for you evacuation bag.
Everyone should have a window glass breaker in their vehicle, too.
Here in the land of 10,000 lakes (and hundreds of rivers and ponds) people die every year driving off the road and into water. Most times it is not going into the water that kills people, it is not being able to open their windows and get out of the sinking vehicle that kills them. Between freaking out in the moment (not staying calm as you see the water rise around your car) and water actually filling the inside of your car while the windows can’t be opened, causes people to panic and die.
Anyone who lives near water should have an emergency window breaker in their glove compartment to break windows (from the inside) instantly in order to get out before it’s too late.
Likewise, anyone who might get caught in a flash flood or rising waters from any type of storm, should also have a window breaker.
Praying for everyone anywhere in the path of the storm.
Spyderco makes a great rescue knife with a seat belt cutter and a window cracker.
The one tip I can offer to those expecting to be in or near the wind field is this–An over-the-air television receiver. And, a good FM radio. Don’t count on your internet or cell service or Sat TV to bring in critical info rapidly on the Doppler wind speed coming toward you. During Irma one of the local radio stations provided very rapid updates on wind speed coming to areas around us. Those images that you look at over the web take a LOT of bandwidth and you’ll lose that as user traffic increases.
The cell service will get overloaded and real slow/choppy and the broadband lines might get messed up for various reasons. Moreover, the cell towers down here usually have backup batteries for about 48 hours. If power is out over that time frame there won’t be cell service. So, get the old TV out (you’ll need backup/batter power for it), get an antenna set up inside, and locate TV and radio stations that will come in strong. Strong reception is critical.
Weather radios and power inverters are a good recommendation.
During Harvey I sat in the garage and ran the car to charge my phone and let’s get news on the radio. Of course I had the garage door open
Here’s a way to have a very dim “night light”, if the electricity goes out: Get some yellow Elmer’s “Glow in the Dark” glue. (Make sure to get the light yellow colored glue. That color of glue glows much brighter than the blue or red glue.)
When you have the glue, do this: Put a piece of bright white paper (ex: printer paper) on a table. (Bright white paper is better than aluminum foil.) Point the glue container straight down above the paper. Slowly move the container across the paper, putting a thick line of glue on the paper.
(You don’t want a thin smear of glue. You want a line of glue that’s thick enough for to feel, if you run your finger over the dried glue. The line of glue doesn’t have to be horizontally wide. But you do want it to have a good vertical thickness above the paper.)
Let the glue dry for about 10 hours. Then tape the paper to your walls – wherever you don’t want to stub your toe in the dark. Also it can mark the top of stairs.
I like to put two squiggly lines vertically down a paper – one line on the left, and one line on the right. Then after the glue dries, I fold the paper vertically, so that there’s a squiggly line on each side of the fold. Then I tape the paper to a corner of a wall, so that I can see the glowing squiggly lines from either side of the corner of the wall.
If the glue gets enough light from the sun, or from a light, then it will glow all night. You won’t be able to see other things with it, like a flashlight. But you’ll see the glowing glue, which will tell you where a wall or a staircase is.
Brilliant.
Indeed!!
😎
This will also work….
After you go through one ‘caine, you go whole-hog on your preparations.
Sorta sayin’ “Next time I’m gonna have some power.”
This portable box brings power to your rooms and takes the loads off the big solar backup system running your refrigerator/freezer and other big stuff.
Or if you have those solar yard lights bring them in at night. They will give you some light where you need it.
Easy to carry around or to place in a planter and set some in each room. Throw the back out during the day.
What might be even easier is to get a few of those outside solar lights (or use the ones you have). Put them outside during the day to recharge (as long as they won’t get blown away) and then bring them inside at night. Eventually, of course, they’ll peter out at night, but by then maybe you’ll be asleep.
Also, Halloween supplies are already in stores, so get some glow sticks.
Yes! Glow sticks! I need them for my bug-out bag. Thanks for the great idea!
Got a portable fan from Amazon that runs on lithium battery packs. On low it will last all night or when your power goes out and you need some air. Got two battery packs and a charger. By the way, if you have a battery backup for your computer or stereo or tv, if the power fails turn it off. You can use it to charge all sorts of things. I’ve got an extra one just charging all the time in case I need it.
I have several of those. I have one in the car for my dog, and I have some larger ones for inside the house. They definitely help.
Now that is fascinating!
The news always puts out the basically the same pre storm prep, in the 2004 season a friend went to his parents house to secure items. When he went in the house his mom was filling the bath tub, he inquired why, because the tv said so was the answer.
He had to remind his mom that they had well water and a generator.
Filled a couple buckets for the toilets that’s all that was need until storm passed ran on generator for 13 days.
She had also went to the store day before and of all things bought ice cream.
Ice Cream= good to flavor your coffee with if it melts!
you can also make yourself and emergency toliet..Get a 5 gallon bucket from any
hardware store and you can buy plastic toliet seat (with or without cover) that fits it
from either walmart or order from Amazon..it is sturdy enough to sit on..and just put
plastic garbage bags in it and you can use anything cat litter. Dirt from outside
whatever you want in it. then just dispose of the plastic bag..(people can put used
diapers in the garbage so I would assume you could put your bag in there as well)
It’s considered Hazmat but they rarely make a stink about it.
The toilets worked fine just need the bucket-o-water for the flush until the storm passed and could start generator. Had a couple buckets outside front door catching rain water to use as refill.
Have 30kw worth of generator power now, 15kw for house and 12 kw for the shop/ storm room.
Shop is 170 + mph wind rated.
Unless one is downstream of the sewer plant and dependent upon lift stations to carry away the sewage, a condition of older, near sea level communities. Silicon pads to seal tubs and shower drains-heavy container on top to prevent backflow.
5gal bucket with a pool noodle slit and put on the top. Be sure to put a trash bag in it first.
I bought one of the beside chair toilet w/the seat, bucket, and lid for emergencies. I have never used it, but the last thing I want to do is fall off a bucket.
Prayers for all in the eventual path. I always find it ironic that the path of a hurricane 2 days out can’t ever truly be predicted 100%, but leftist enviros claim to know the temperature of the entire earth to a 10th of a degree 20 years out.
For anyone that happens to be at ground zero where the eye of the storm passes over just remember. Once the eye passes the winds will come from the opposite direction and all the loose objects and debris that were blowing by before will start coming back at you from the other direction.
So what you’re saying is that if your patio furniture blows away, don’t worry about running out to get it when the eye comes over because pretty soon it’ll come tumbling back into your yard???
I’m joking, of course! Y’all stay safe.
Bucket of water trick .. You’re simply replicating the action of the toilet’s holding tank. Use at least amount of water in holding tank and dump it at least as fast as the holding tank flush
Its so much fun you may never use the flush lever again!!
Though no comfort for those under the threat this will add some perspective on the true state of things when the morons start harping “climate change” caused it.
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE) keeps a measure of the total energy being produced by tropical cyclones based on intensity, duration, and number of storms.
Currently the ACE for the Atlantic in the Northern Hemisphere which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is 85% of normal. The Global ACE is just 78% of normal. “Normal” is based on the mean from 1991 to present. This totally puts the lie to the claims of these storms getting more frequent or more intense.
Global Tropical Cyclone Activity | Ryan Maue (climatlas.com)
DeSantis should send it to Martha’s Vineyard.
I vote for DC.
My mother, her parents, and aunts lived in Florida. My grandparents always evacuated well in advance. My great Aunt refused to evacuate (Miami) ever. I forgot which hurricane it was, but she and my grandmother in their older years sat huddled in the bathtub together while the storm ripped the roof off. It took months to get a new roof because everyone around them was in the same situation. It did get tarped at some point. I remember my Great Aunt saying it was the worse year of her life.
Note: For some reason, new transplants may think they can just jump online and order supplies via Amazon. This happened during another major storm. I don’t know how they think warehouse workers and truck drivers are going to brave a hurricane to deliver to them. Please, if you are new to Florida, please, go get your supplies today, in person. No one delivers during a hurricane.
What?! No pizza?! Sorry, deliveries make me think of pizza.
Precisely why Frankie McDonald always reminds people to get their Chinese and Pizzas *before* the storm hits!
LOL! A few years ago this truck driver was dispatched into downtown Boston the morning after they had the largest snowfall in the cities history! I made it my pickup and got out somehow, but it was an adventure.
That same winter they dispatched me for a pickup near Hartford, CN when they were under a blizzard warning, I called the company that I was to pickup at before heading down there and they told me they were sending their employees home and nobody would be there. I called back to dispatch to inform the morons of that and they canceled the load.
Last winter I was dispatched up to Chicago during their heaviest snow of the year. Four stops, Skokie, Shiller Park, and two in Elk Grove Village. I made the pickups but ran out of hours so pulled onto a wide shoulder of a ramp off I-65 south to take my break. All the truck stops and rest areas are always full in conditions like that. An Indiana State trooper came and ran me off. I was so pissed I said to heck with the hours, and drove back to my terminal in Anderson, IN and slept in my own bed that night when I finally go in.
But a hurricane? The closest I’ve got to that in my driving career was the remnants of a Tropical Storm coming up through Marion, IL on I-57. Sideways rain south of town going one direction and south of town and sideways rain going the other direction on the north side of town and then a great tail wind when I turned east on I-70 a Effingham.
Did have tornadoes on the ground in front of me and behind me driving I-70 west bound in Missouri headed for KC. That was the day Joplin got hit by the F-5.
Eh. No diesel available anyway!
I can get over 1.400 miles of range out the Freight Liner Cascadia I drive depending on the weight of the load, road condtions, and terrain.
Seems I find myself in the Cone of Uncertainty more and more lately.
I had a kid in Dennis in 1981,,,,if you prepare, use common sense, and keep a cool head, you can make it,,,went through Hugo in Charlotte, nobody did any prep and it was terrible, went through Wilma, and while it was bad, since we prepped we did alright…..just prepare, use common sense, and keep a cool head, and if told to evacuate, do so
That trough of low pressure I mentioned has also prompted that I wear a long sleeve shirt when going outside as I just did to fire up the grill. Rib Eyes for dinner.
Get a case of gold bond , Ovaltine, and the quicker picker upper,
Praying for the Lord to move it away from land and protect people and creatures great and small. 🙏😇 “With God ALL things are possible.”- Matthew 19:26
Amen
It’s bothersome that Biden and his administration will most likely drag their heals with relief in an effort to make DeSantis look bad. I suspect DeSantis is prepared for that contingency.
How will Val Demmings explain to her voters, a Biden Administration dragging their feet on emergency Hurricane aid to Florida…a month out from an election? Crist will just bash DeSantis. I don’t think Charlie has much left in the political gas tank.
I want to see how the DNC, Biden, the DC Deep State and Florida DNC operatives plan on exploiting this hurricane in their political battle against DeSantis. It doubt the DNC response will be pretty for Florida residents.
Is Mar a Lago in a safe area?
About as safe as your going to find in Florida. But in 1926 it sure wasn’t. That year a hurricane hit Miami and darn near wiped the place out. Mar-a-Lago stood the storm but was flooded by the storm surge. It remains to this day the most destructive Hurricane in US history in inflation adjusted dollars.
Florida’s population has exploded over the last 30 years, but our roads haven’t. I-75 can be a parking lot on a normal day. I wouldn’t want to get caught stranded on the highway in a big storm.
For long term EQ prep, I filled plastic 1/2 gallon and 1 Gallon milk jugs w/ water and just put them behind every toilet in the house. And there they sat, forever.
I do the same thing in FL. They’re there if I ever need them.
Empty bottles of clear liquors, I filled w/ water and laid under the bed. The bottle cap design makes it hard (impossible?) for them to leak, even laying on their side. Good for cleaning, brushing teeth, etc.
It’s just kind of nice to do as much of this stuff as possible waaaay beforehand, so the 10 days before a possible ‘cane aren’t so overwhelming.
Waiting for the liberal dopes to start screaming like banshees that this is all because of global warming.
“ If only everyone payed carbon taxes we’d never have another storm or hurricane! “
/s
I’m anxious to see how those solar panels on the roofs hold down, also where it appears that hurricane is going there are sloar farms all around up there. Between Jacksonville and Tallahassee Should be interesting to say the least.
SOLAR FARMS.
All Hillsborough County schools will close starting Monday in advance of possible impacts from what could be Hurricane Ian later this week. Many of the county’s schools operate as storm shelters, and buildings will serve as such through Thursday.
All Pinellas County Schools and offices will be CLOSED Tuesday, Sept. 27 and Wednesday, Sept. 28, and are tentatively scheduled to reopen Thursday, Sept. 29. All sports and extracurricular activities
Pasco County schools and offices will be closed Tuesday and Wednesday in advance of impacts from what could be Hurricane Ian later this week. PLACE, ASEP, all after-school programs, all athletic events and practices, and all extracurricular events will also not take place.
I spent one night and two days in a Pinellas County school turned into a storm shelter. Sitting and sleeping on the floor, a living hell with crying babies at all hours, roaches crawling around (I guess they seek shelter from the storm) and flattened PB&J sandwiches for food.
What made it worse, the storm never hit as hard as expected, the sun was shining, the sky clear, but we had to sit on the floor in that damn gym until given the “all clear.”
I vowed never to go through that hell again. I now live in Arizona.
Get cash from the ATM. Fill your cars with gas tomorrow
Why do I get the feeling that most of the current administration would LOVE to see fl. take the brunt of this hurricane? Pray and help others.
Water storage and MRE’S, use to could find these at academy sports, canned foods and a gas or wood stove. After Katrina, some places were heavily price gouging prices for water until the NG come and shut them down. Keep together after the storm, looters and thieves take advantage also. After living through a dozen of these, including a cat 5, camile you learn to be self sufficient and the true meaning of community.
Martial Law imposed on the MS Guilf Coast after H. Camille STOPPED the looters, aftere one was shot and killed by a Nat Guard soldier while he was trying to carry a TV out of a beach front residence. The local radio carried the News and the looters left and stayed gone.
That was long before the USA Govt gave up Law & Order to keep people safe from Criminals. Be prepared to Protect you and your family now, after a storm.
For many weeks after Katrina in Metairie (NOLA) the silence was chilling, no birds at all, but the absence of the common sound of children paling in their yards was more than spookie. No street lights either.
A week after Katrina, a A-10 Warthog buzzed my house, real low and loud (no Brrrrzzzh though),.. man did that feel good.
The “Thuggin It & Luvin It” gangs then were Waring with each other, not the absent NOPD, to Loot New Orleans, next door, while our Ditzy Dim LA Gov, “Bimbo Blanco” and “Chocolate City” Mayor Ray Nagoon were both AWOL.
Be Prepared to Protect yourself in a Blue run City or State!
Uh oh! GFS is showing a shift in track east. This is what Joe Bastardi has to say about it on Twitter:
Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
4h
Like Harvey, ian Will get trapped by a cold trough aloft and crawl once reaching the Florida coast near Tampa in my opinion. Tho not as strong as Andrew and Michael, that slow movement and where it hits could make it the most destructive storm in Florida history
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdiPZCKXEAIDjWD?format=png&name=360×360
Well that’s quite a statement “could make it the most destructive storm in Florida history” ! And coming from Mr. Bastardi, that’s saying something.
Levi Cowen says he will have another video out tonight. Here is the link for when it comes out if you so inclined. I Love this stuff but fully understand that most people don’t want to delve into the nitty griggy details of forecasting the development, tracks and strengths of these storms. His presentation really is not too technical for the average person to understand though, if your so inclined. It’s just very detailed.
Tropical Tidbits
Thanks, rah.
Ryan Hall’s channel. Latest was 4 hours ago. He will go live when we need him to, and he’s known for days of sleepless coverage.
https://m.youtube.com/c/RyanHallYall/videos
NOAA next update at 8:00 EST.
A good maps page here:
https://www.trackthetropics.com/ian-2022/
rah, I think you’ll love Ryan Hall, especially once you see his live coverage. Hurricanes, blizzards, thunderstorms, tornadoes… He’s our favorite over here.
Track the Tropics is awesome – extremely thorough and totally focused on Ian – has everything in an easy to find format.
Thanks so much for posting!
Dry ice will keep all the beer cold in the coolers for a very long time 👍🏼
Priorities , Tiff , For Sure 🍻 🍺 🍻 ! 😜😁😄
🙏Prayers Up for All🙏
Praying for all down there.
Prepare, then ‘let go and let God…’.
Not good people…Jim Cantore was reporting from Clearwater (I think it was him…he has aged somewhat, voice sounded right)….
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Further east, there is a storm percolating in the central tropical Atlantic per NHC/NOAA
My neighbor there is an Ace Hardware store manager…he said its getting crazy.
That disturbance out in the mid Atlantic is moving very slow and not well developed. Not worth worrying about for about a week IF it survives.
This mornings GFS on left. This evening GFS on right. After days of trending west, GFS has flipped back to the east, joining other models in indicating a strong/major hurricane to be just off, or on our west coast Wednesday night/Thursday. Significant impacts are likely.
Funny not so funny. My husband is in Orlando on a business trip. My son and his wife are there along with my brother and his wife. We had lived in Florida for years and experienced many hurricanes. A lot of hurricanes.
reasons to prep
up here in NE Tennessee this afternoon we had 50 mph wind gusts with thunderstorms. Crazy stuff lost power for 3 hours.
in Florida hurricanes we lost power for a week or so.
soooo my phone was getting close to dying while I was talking to my brother about how to charge up the phone on our new solar powered generator. Hmmmm maybe I should have read the directions when we got it. Duh.
I did figure it out…5 minutes before the power came back on. Lol
But it taught me a big lesson.
Nature is Nature. If you have doggies (canines) in your house, pay attention to their behavior under these circumstances. I will explain why.
On the island of Hokkaido, Japan, people say that foxes (also canines) can somehow tell when a typhoon (that is what hurricanes are called west of the international date line) is coming. I explained to them why. Canines have an awesome sense of hearing. They can hear the noise of typhoon winds hundreds of miles away.
If you have doggies in your house, and they start acting weird and worried when outside, and they start looking in a certain direction at the sky, be careful. It means dangerous weather is coming from that direction. It is a warning from nature about nature, be careful and get ready.
If the path stays what it is , central Florida will just get a lot of rain. Just relax.
Central Florida is already saturated with rainfall. Flooding is still a concern even if we are lucky enough to escape any high winds.
“rapid intensification”
in practical terms, this means that a hurricane can rapidly increase in power, speed, and force far faster than any models can calculate to alert people to that danger.
So when you listen to news and predictions and modeling, understand that these models break down in conditions that are no easy or even possible to estimate.
DO NOT TRY TO OUT -THINK A HURRICANE. Keep a worst case scenario position in planning and bug out contingencies.
If they are saying 1, assume it will be 2 maybe even 3. if they say 3, assume it will be 4 or worse. This is the most sane and reasonable strategy to mitigate your own risks from the unpredictable nature that can happen from “rapid intensification”.
also this: the so called “spaghetti models” and cone of probability refer to estimating the approach and landfall. One expects the models to get more accurate based on more data and the close the storm is to landfall. However, even these models are prone to large error. Again, these are predictive models. Hurricanes do not read models and take their cues from human models. Ever! We might tend to get a sense of confidence these models are reliable if the hurricanes do follow the predictions. But where this breaks down is when a reliance on “science” in these models becomes a type of complacency. Meaning have a sense of skepticism and lean toward a conservative risk averse attitude. Things change rapidly in the hours leading landfall and even as the storm travels inland. Do not become complacent.
Let me give you some real world experience on this matter related to three hurricanes:
Iniki (kauai): It was modeled and predicted to take a north track well before oahu, possibly hit big island, where it would encounter that large mountainous landmass. the storm in fact continued to track a near perfect easterly track all the way to Kauai …over 1000 miles. It covered this distance very quickly and picked up “forward” velocity. It then made it’s north track and slammed Kauai at full hurricane force. None of the models held up, even in the last hours before impact. Even hours before landfall “officials” were still insisting Kauai would only get partial impact . The models were not correct. Kauai took a direct hit at full hurricane force. And the people had little time to prepare given the “officials’ were complacent in announcing worst case scenario. There was a political and economic reason for this poor storm prediction. Kauai draws nearly all of its GDP from tourism. Keep this in mind. Political people will get involved often to downplay effects. There were many studies and investigations associated with this non-science influence. Kauai was lights out and in severe damage and serious hardship for thousands of people for almost 10 months while recovery happened. While it is true that Kauai is a very remote island and complicated by logistical limits, the point is this: models are unreliable and against reason and good judgement, often political people influence how alerts are made. The highest peak of Kauai experienced an anomaly called a micro burst. A naval anemometer rated for 240 mph wind force was sheared completely. It was recovered and there was no evidence of flying debris collision. This was wind force breaking a titanium wind meter! Studies carried out, corroborated by aerial and ground evidence have shed light in a phenomenon called micro bursts. Short but powerful opposing “tornado-like” counter-rotating winds at or near the eye wall. (aka, two opposing wind vectors colliding with the sum of the wind speed and vector exceeding 240 mph! ) the aerial and ground evidence was based on the kind of material damage that could only could be produced by these speeds…also the peculiar aspect of damage path and damage direction. (trees and structures collapsed in directions not consistent with classic hurricane force vectors). Iniki was a WET hurricane. On a island that had already been flooded several times during the wet season. Entire section of mountainous regions literally slid into towns and into the ocean. Entire mountain and hilly areas were leveled with mud flows and flying missiles for many many miles.
Laura: The cone of probability two days before landfall was broad…almost 1,000 miles of coastline. Laura intensified in the last 5 hours of landfall into a full cat 4. The models could not keep up and BE PROVIDED PUBLICLY AT SCALE FAST ENOUGH to broadcast the point of impact and intensity. It remains a full cat 4 far inland as far as 100 miles from cameron. There were also micro bursts in this event which was documented with similar aerial and ground evidence. What this means is that altitude is not necessary a requirement as in the Kauai case study. These micro burst are very dangerous and cannot be predicted or how long they last and where they extend to any point along the eye wall. A cat 3 can produce micro bursts as easily as a cat 4. This has been demonstrated experimentally as well as many observations on real events. So when you hear someone say: I’ve been through a cat 3 or or cat 4…do not let that make you feel these storms are survivable. There is large uncertainty about the nature of missiles, micro bursts, flooding, and building collapse. Do not becomes complacent thinking hurricanes are “just strong winds” they can produce effects far greater than models can predict! Laura was a “dry” hurricane. No flooding, but the storm surge was incredible at and near shorelines for a distance of nearly 300 miles east and west of the point of landfall! Models cannot accurately predict how much or how little hurricanes will produce flooding rainfall!
Delta: Almost identical to Laura, but smaller and tighter when it intensified in the last 4 hours before landfall. Similar microbursts observed. In terms of comparing intensity with Laura, is is purely academic. In reality the strength of boths storms caused nearly identical damages to structure and infrastructure. Also identical almost perfect clones in terms of path and landfall. Which really sucked for people who had just experienced Laura only 40 days earlier and still in recovery from that. Delta was also a “dry” storm. It produced very little flooding rainfall. But the same kind of storm surge at coast lines and as far inland in some areas as 30-40 miles, similar to Laura. (calcasieu and cameron parishes are a vast wetland with dozens of bayous and two major river systems!)
differences: Whereas the evacuation and preparedness of officials in Kauai was a complete failure of leadership, people in Louisiana were adequately warned about Laura and Delta and evacuations operations were made and mandated and enforced with good results that definitely spared many lives.
People living in Florida: take heed. Hurricanes are deadly…never try to out think what a hurricane is capable of doing. they are unpredictable. If you are think you can “ride it out”, you are not thinking straight. Make a plan, gather your supplies, and be ready to bug out. the problem with waiting is that you are going to get in a situation where everyone else is on the road at the same time fighting to do the same thing you are doing. it gets very ugly and dangerous when people panic. this is where the hurricanes are not the danger, but the lack of planning and taking early actions. If you hear some older people saying they are staying…make sure you understand many old people really say these things, because they have no means.
Be the adult in the room. And find those people and make sure they go with you when you bug out.
And for those of you who will not be in the direct destructive path, find a way to help in recovery. It really matters to help others ..food, water, ice, shelter. Share with people who are going to be in need. Some people will be trapped from circumstances beyond their control…just assume that to be the case. it’s easy to sit and judge someone who was “too stupid” to act. Don’t be that person. Be the kind of hero you can be. It matters.
God Bless America
I still have cat litter jugs filled w/water from a couple years back, they work great for the toilet.
A trick I used to use when an SF soldier living out of a rucksack for weeks at a time. Pour instant oatmeal in zip loc baggies. Roll the baggies up and store them. When the time comes heat your water and pour it in the baggie. Reseal the bag and squish the stuff around to mix it. Then bite the corner off the bag and squeeze it into your mouth.
Living like that is really a kind of survival and when one takes care of the ounces they must carry the pounds take care of themselves. We made our own trail mix back then and called it “Gorp”. Before the MREs came out the standard issue was C-rations. But canned foods are not compatible with living out of a rucksack and especially when your already loaded down with weapons, ammo, and other mission essential equipment. So we were issued Vietnam era LRRP rations. They were freeze dried meals reconstituted with hot water. Not bad really and much lighter than C-rations.
Then MREs came out and being on separate rations we would buy them by the case and strip them out of all the excess stuff. I mean one only need a single plastic spoon and only so much TP etc. Take care of the ounces and the pounds take care of themselves and the difference can mean your survival when you go to war.
Add some cinnamon, raisins, maybe some other chopped dried fruit, toasted pecans (I’m a southern gal)…. and it’s a gourmet ration.
ramen…the 70 cent stuff…keeps forever…does not require cooking or even water. munch munch. it’s calories you need and ramen dry noodles is easy and light. figure on at least 1,000-1,500 calories a day minimum just to survive for a week…more if you are outside working in exposure. Keep hydrated…exhaustion and heat fatigue happens quickly to the uninitiated. Most are not. (if you add water and wait a few hours dry ramen will get wet enough to become easier to eat and digest. But a small corner and add water, let it soak for a couple of hours…done ready to eat. Or dry…)
foods that require cooking require energy. preserve your fuel and energy. if you have to cook, do so by pooling resources with others in the neighborhood and make larger amounts to feed more people. this is much more efficient than single serve or single family cooking in terms of both energy used per meal and also allows fewer people to actually do the cooking so other can work on other things, like making temp roof repairs, finding aid stations, caring for others, etc. Hurricanes recovery can take many days, sometimes weeks. plan that happens. Power doesn’t come on until roads are cleared. If you want to get an “edge” do your part and start clearing roads to the nearest transmission power transfer station. But be very careful doing this and do not touch downed lines, even if you “KNOW” them to be unpowered. Things happen during recovery and mistakes are made when energizing segments of the grid. You don’t want to be messing around with downed lines and do the last dance. Same thing with debris. Wear gloves…lots of sharpies and nasty stuff that can make you sick or infected. Wear a hat for shade and cooling and a simple old t shirt around the neck. Without ac and cooling dehyration and exposure fatigue happens quickly. Bug spray. It’s not going to last. preserve it for your sleeping areas at night so you can get some rest without the bites. First aid kits…inventory who has what and determine who is best to treat wounds and injuries…always dress a wound even if it is slight. Infection happens quickly when the body immune system is challenged in exposure environments. Know how to render aid to heat exhaustion and how to properly perform cpr. It’s going to happen some people will go critical. And it won’t just be the older people at high risk. It happens to anyone who isn’t paying attention and taking breaks. The stress from disaster is like nothing you have ever experienced.
last: pray and do it together. It makes a difference even if the outcomes remain unchanged. it’s a state of mind and attitude. relaxing in the certainty that everything is going to work out and just put in the time and energy to work together. Don’t fight the crisis. Lean into it with the confidence that can only come from the assurance that God is watching over you.
preserve your phone battery and power. If you can set aside certain phones and turn them off completely and only use them as a last resort. When everyone is using their own phones leaves nothing in reserve when you might really need to make a call.
most of this might seem extreme. If you have never been in a major disaster crisis, it might seem extreme. knowing in advance what might happen and how to plan and anticipate, can save your life and at the very least make your situation much more bearable.
God Bless America
Excellent advice, suggestions, and tips. The bug spray is a good one. Thank you.
Here in Tampa things are already in short supply. Water was in short supply as of yesterday with whole shelves barren. Usually the stores restock around 9-10am in the morning so there probably will be lines today considering the path drifted a little further to the east. Unfortunately that shift puts us near that devastating right front quadrant.
I live near Tampa. We continue to prepare our home for this storm. We are also preparing our next door neighbor’s home because he is out of town and can’t return at this time. Yesterday we brought in all the front porch furniture. Today we will bring in all the furniture on the back patios. We are getting our storm information from our local tv channels. I turned on The Weather Channel this morning only to find the reporters absolutely giddy with excitement anticipating this hurricane. Very unprofessional in their reporting. Thank you, Sundance and Treepers, for your helpful hints, insights, experiences, and most of all, prayers.
Here it is Monday morning and the Weather Channel still does not know where this storm is going to head and it supposedly hits Tampa by Thu? They don’t know if it is heading east or west.