A small sideline story that reflects a combination of sociological and economic facets. A Yacht Club in the Hamptons of New York is forced to cancel their restaurant services after their staff is removed from the USA due to immigration enforcement.
The larger picture is well worth discussing, because there is a large and inorganic part of the U.S. economy that will obviously be impacted by immigration enforcement and the removal of illegal or unauthorized workers. First, from the Hamptons:
NEW YORK – An ultra-exclusive Hamptons yacht club catering to the wealthy and well-connected was forced to suspend its members-only restaurant service for multiple days after several of its kitchen staff were booted from the country over visa issues, The Post has learned.
The swanky oceanfront Devon Yacht Club in Amagansett — which reportedly charges around $100,000 in initiation fees — canceled its Wednesday night dinner service after its foreign cooks had to leave the US because of problems renewing their H-2B temporary work visas, according to a letter sent to members the same day.
Food service was also canceled Thursday and was not expected to be back up and running until Friday’s lunch service, the club informed its deep-pocketed members — a group that once included Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis’s parents.
[…] “It seems that an oversight either by the agent or attorney responsible for submitting our petition or perhaps by the US Immigration Office itself has resulted in a situation where our H2B kitchen staff must leave the country immediately and return to their home countries for at least 60 days before their visas can be renewed.” (read more)
Obviously, there is not a lot of sympathy for a bunch of elitists missing their Avocado toast and brunch options. However, if we stand back and think about the scale of economic activity impacted by a return to a nationally organic labor force, we accept there are going to be major ramifications to a variety of businesses across a broad spectrum of sectors.
As a ‘let’s get on with it’ proponent of deporting all illegal aliens, cancelling H1B and J-1 visas as well as removing all Temporary Protected Status populations from the USA, we must also accept the very predictable consequences.
Due to the inorganic nature of corporatized economics built on the backs of foreign workers, right now there are thousands of businesses in the USA operating on an inorganic business model, that could never have been sustained without massive import of cheap foreign labor. Additionally, there are billions of dollars in investment that was poured into the economy based on this inorganic and manipulated job market.
There are resorts and venues operating in the USA which never would have been built without a foundation of foreign labor to service them. Take that labor force out of the economy and things will significantly change. This outcome is both predictable and necessary to reset the labor market.
As all of these foreign workers are removed there is going to be massive pressure on the wage rates for American workers. That’s a great benefit. Simultaneously, there’s also some businesses that will never survive without that foreign labor pool because the business model itself was built upon a false foundation.
Most of the time we think about the service industries with workforces that are significantly staffed with foreign workers. Hotels, resorts, restaurants, vacation destinations etc. Many of these locations currently operating would never have found capital or investment in a true economy that was not built on illegal immigration, visas or foreign workers. There are likely hundreds of resorts that exist only because the labor market is inorganic.
With a predictable rise in wages comes the increased operating costs and diminished profit return for the investors and owners. This can have a major impact, but again, this outcome is due to fraud in the underlying business model. Those businesses likely would never have started and the investment never would have been capitalized without the fraud it is dependent upon.
Take out the illegal aliens; remove the H1B visas and all other ancillary visa approvals and remove the protected status returning foreign workers to their country of origin, and U.S. wage rates and benefits will quickly increase as companies try to find a way to shift to a business model built upon real economics.
This rise in wages will be significant and that can create an inflation increase. As wages increase in price, the operating costs increase. The per unit business model then must adjust and things like hotel rooms go up in price. As resort prices increase, they become unaffordable to the current target customer, that leads to lower sales and decreased revenue. However, that natural dynamic also returns organic competition to a market that has been missing competition for decades.
It’s not just about the service industries. As the labor market contracts, wage rates for blue collar construction and manufacturing jobs also increase. This can lead to higher consumer prices during the painful phase as the natural market balance is restored. Again, many businesses will not exist because many businesses never would have existed without the baseline of imported foreign workers.
Sectors of the economy will shrink just as the restaurant service in the Hamptons has been reduced.
There will be more housing available and rent prices will return to market competition. New construction homes will be more expensive to build, but less demand for the finished product brings back incentives and competition. Overall home prices for preexisting homes will likely drop significantly; however, on the upside with increased wages and lower home values the younger generation will have the opportunity for home ownership.
The U.S. population is roughly 350 million. There are roughly 170 million civilians in the eligible labor market. If you take out 50 million illegal aliens, then do the math and you will quickly realize how many inorganic or excess businesses are in operation.
Thousands of restaurants will go out of business, because thousands of restaurants never had a real business model to maintain their existence.
The labor fraud created a fraudulent economy, and this reset is going to be significant.
Couldn’t affect a more deserving population.
I won’t cry.
by that comment, I hope you realize you’re referring to the whole country because at some point in time you come in contact with that very self same fraudulent system whether it’s at the barbershop or the grocery store or wherever, car wash.
Some of us understand that in order to give the American dream back to our fellow citizens there will be inconveniences. It’s worth it.
Myself, I will lose home value. It wasn’t real to begin with so what have I lost?
And if it had happened in May instead of August perhaps some local teens could have had summer jobs.
I stay in hotels often when I’m working out of town. I noticed a few years ago that the facilities began to cut back on basic services. At first, it was room cleaning only every third day or so. Lately, it’s been room cleaning only upon request. They always have so much propaganda in the rooms about saving the eearff, but we all know it’s to save money on room attendants because they’re having to increase wages due to illegals being deported. From my perspective, this all started during President Trump’s first term.
Try getting a clean or open bathroom, or paper windshield wipe, at a Indian or Pakistani owned gas station.
Worse yet xiden regime gave them the money to purchase said gas station!
Ooh, that smell
Can’t you smell that smell?
Ooh, that smell
This Indian restaurant visa scam went into overdrive during the Biden years. No one was minding the store for four years.. That is when suddenly there were new Indian restaurants up and down the block even right next to each other when for years there was a market for only one or tow. .
Agree, a fraudulent business plan just to move the relatives into “open job positions” and then close down as soon as the relatives were all in place. Make sure the restaurants advertise for cooking for skills they know no US resident would have.
It accelerated after COVID
I hate hotels. Filthy.
When I had to stay in the hotels it was not wanting to change the bed linen daily, same save the planet crap.
This wasn’t Red Roof or Motel 6, this was Marriott and the like.
Asked if there was discount for not having it changed daily…crickets.
I’m not buying the inflation or no inflation binary. Banks create credit for three things: asset purchases (which turn into asset bubbles); consumer credit (which is more money in circulation leading to inflation) or economic development (the Hamiltonian model) which is not inflationary since it increases wealth or economic output.
Banks lending to these industries will be the investment capital bypassing the need for Wall Street predators who only look at returns for shareholders. The reason these investors are able to make money is because the cash in on the difference in wages between Americans and foreigners.
Good to hear.
“The U.S. population is roughly 350 million. There are roughly 170 million civilians in the eligible labor market. If you take out 50 million illegal aliens, then do the math and you will quickly realize how many inorganic or excess businesses are in operation.”
This is, as the Bard said, a consummation devoutly to be wished, but these are my two sticking points:
1) 50 million illegal aliens is 15% of the U.S. population! I hadn’t heard a number that large before. Are there really that many illegals here?
2) At ICE’s current rate of deportation, removing 50 mil illegals in Trump’s remaining 2-1/2 years ain’t gonna happen!
Greg Bovino said there are 107 million illegals.
Circa 2010 I concluded there were 45 to 60 million illegal aliens residing within the fifty states (overseas territories, not included)
My extensive research involved perusing data from multiple government agencies and business associations across many industries.
The 45 million figure was certain, indications it was improbably low. The 60 million seemed unrealistic and inconclusive. Fifty-three to fifty-five became most probable/significant when including a longer timeline into the past.
Mind you, all the figures exceeded the historical 13% of a certain demographic.
My efforts began as a response to politicians year after year claiming eleven million illegal aliens in the country. Though they were lies, they were the most improbable. I wanted to find how improbable, the extent thereof.
Note: None of government agencies (independantly, or culmatively) possessed the data to narrow a range of less than fifeteen million.
“None of government agencies (independantly, or culmatively) possessed the data to narrow a range of less than fifeteen million.” Or they did not want to admit they know. Those mysteries are usually a mystery to the people not so much to the people in power. Just like they were “safe and effective” for us and Saline for them.
That’s not counting the several generations of anchor babies, who are classified as “citizens”. Given the rodent-like breeding patterns, I’d bet it’s double that. 100 million.
You said, it ain’t gonna happen.
I say, assuming the uniform progression (status quo) of even up to the recent past, I think you are correct.
But, already we have seen, and continue to see, plenty indications that what was, is not now.
US organic business growth is long overdue.
Let’s get it started.
Organic should include a healthy percentage of family-run businesses.
Break all the big corporations into competitive pieces.
i’ve been waiting to read that somewhere and here it is. I owned multiple businesses built on that same model from 1999 through 2024 and I can tell you it became increasingly more difficult to account for the LABOR through the tax process. at the end of the day I can’t say I realized any substantial savings.
it is correct the pain is going to be immense and lots of unemployment-and Trump will no longer be around.
We can always bring in workers. Just do it legally and need based. Everybody that is able should work.
Where’s the “the rich should pay their fair share” crowd on this story? Have they figured out onto which side to direct the outrage mob?
I saw it in my city of Las Vegas NV. I worked at a high end, major property on the Strip and saw the changes. First, it was Spanish speaking immigrants. Then came the Asian immigrants. In the last 5-7 years, it has been northern African immigrants.
I remember a boss telling a group of us a story of a black American housekeeper complaining that the Spanish speaking people (who knew English) only spoke Spanish in front of her. The boss proudly told us listeners that he told her, “Why don’t you learn Spanish and make them feel more welcome?”
We Americans looked around and couldn’t believe how the demographics of our work force changed. Now, most of us have retired and, I have been told, that most of the property is full of non-Americans.
My guess is that they these H-2B “temporary” VISAs were rubber stamped and were rarely “renewed” because no one was going to enforce the rules of the VISA. Until, PDJT and Marco Rubio. These people could be paid less and wouldn’t cause trouble because they wanted to stay. The Asian employees knew to “tip” the bosses in order to become favorites.
All I really care about is deporting illegals. Let’s all try to live in a normal economy, now; President Trump is savvy enough to fix it so we can. Will it take time? Not as long as the doomers say, I can tell you.
Let them eat buffet food. Much more organic.
What am I missing?
Why isn’t ICE/DHS going after the employers instead of chasing each illegal around?
You are missing the fact that we actually have an ICE/DHS agency that deports people when their VISAs expire. Why would it bother you that when someone’s VISA expires that ICE/DHS is immediately notified and they go get the criminals who are here without legal authority? It is not just ILLEGAL aliens who are taking jobs, homes, medical care, benefits, and food from Americans.
The LEGAL immigration system (H1B, H2B, J1 [universities]) and all sorts of other ways to “legally” immigrate to the USA have been abused to bring in people who want to replace Americans.
In this case, why destroy a business by going after the employer when the business may be saved? All the employer has to do is raise wages, hire Americans, and they are back in business contributing to the local economy.
If they cannot afford to pay Americans then they can close up shop and let someone else try. My guess is that they make tons of profits and just wanted to cheap out on employee wages.
Deporting 50 million people is just a pipe dream in the next 18 months. A few million, at best. Maybe get a little closer if we win another trifecta in ‘28….. It’s, all, a heavy heavy lift.
Take away their welfare. Make them pay and actually try to live on the false wage they are paid. No more cars, food, healthcare, housing, running around money, driving without insurance, phones and internet. This is just a start as to why illegals and H1B moochers stay in this and other Western nations. The middle class is paying out the nose to support these benefits while businesses and government officials get richer.
We can also talk about education given for free and false DEI schemes which push out the white middle class. This results in debt slavery for many middle class families who do attend universities.
Start with stopping all these handouts, and the immigration problem will correct itself.
Deporting 50 million people in the next 18 months may be a pipe dream but cleaning up the mess of illegals and all of the destruction and violence they bring with them does have a solution.
The situation now is unsustainable and must be fixed, I believe we can do this.
It will not be easy, we have left it too long.
But the problem is solvable
Every Indian restaurant suddenly sprouting up all over Calif is an immigration scam to bring in all the relatives. Who suddenly became the only people the restaurant needs that qualify for their “special Indian technique cooking skills”, like tandoori. Total scam.
Once the family is safely in place, in the US, the restaurants goes out of business as quickly as it just started. You see this pattern happening all the time in California.
Same for Pakistani convenience stores
The small city where I live in middle west GA has at least three restaurants with basically the same operating style (buffet/cafeteria) and assortment of food. There are others, too many to discuss here. Few are unique. I’m sure there are some I am not even aware of.
Of the three aforementioned, I suspect two may eventually go out of business; but, will probably not be greatly missed because the one remaining will probably increase in size and will have more than enough business to survive which will require more cooks, waitresses, busboys, etc. At least some of that extra help will probably come from the American citizens displaced by the loss of the two closed restaurants.
I suspect similar changes will occur within the fuller local restaurant community. So, overall, the validity of Sundance’s comments notwithstanding, I don’t foresee the impact on the local economy being catastrophic.
I will challenge the idea of a population of 350 million.
The US population is 500 million, of which 300+ million are aliens, legal or illegal.
Don’t believe me? Check the various insurance companies and cell phone companies claimed membership, then go to Costco.
Small businesses used to be “mom & pop” operations, with their kids providing labor. Those businesses can be worth a lot of money after years of operation. Plus they train the kids to actually work, and families tend to be larger when there’s a use for the kids’ labor. Lastly, avoiding importation of unassimilated foreigners – several “wins” in that model
Obviously missing their slaves.
Slavery is the most profitable economic system ever devised.
Indentured servitude serves as a ‘softer’ form of it. The US model that has been imposed in recent decades since manufacturing was off-shored to slave laborers in China and much of Asia, Latin America uses different names and legalistic distinctions. But it’s a form of indentured servitude.
Most blatantly among the tens of millions of illegals trafficked into the nation, shoved into crowded homes (company housing) giving up large percentages of their wages to the traffickers as part of their long-term debt obligation. That’s what the US (and western) economic model has been reengineered to become. In our lifetimes.
An interesting presentation from the 1950’s, article about bankers, commerce, industry, politicians (VP Richard Nixon quoted), social engineers. And their preference for “Efficient Slavery” over “Inefficient Freedom.”
https://archive.org/details/dailycolonist0158uvic_1/mode/2up?view=theater
“Thousands of restaurants will go out of business, because thousands of restaurants never had a real business model to maintain their existence.”
I was told a long time ago that owning a restaurant is a young mans game. It consumes you 24/7/365. Only the young have the stamina to do it. It is also the business with the highest failure rate among new businesses.
When an established business cries that “I can’t find any good help!” I find that as an odd way of admitting that they don’t want to pay a wage that will attract the “good help.” Can’t afford to pay the help, then raise the prices. Raising prices loses business, well that’s how the market self corrects. It’s the government inflicting foreign workers that upsets the balance of that market.
Thus, the explosion of restaurants across this country. As long as they had their cheap, foreign workers then they all couldn’t wait to open a restaurant.
In “Chinatown” (which encompasses all Asian cuisine) in my city, it is well known that the employees are under some sort of servitude and that they have to “share” their tips with the owner. I don’t go there.
We are telling the (elites) slaves you have to go home, stop being slaves.
Of course, we all know the slaves are well paid not by their slave owners but by the taxpaying citizen. Section 8 housing food stamps free health care and schooling for their kids social security and on it goes. Because the slaves live on wages blow poverty, they instantly qualify for welfare. The elitea$$es also made sure the slaves pay their fair share of the free stuff by withholding wage income taxation. These scum are avoiding paying into a retirement fund medical insurance sick leave vacation pay work rules, those things a U.S. citizen would expect/demand for their labor and time the things that do not indicate slavery but true respect.
The elites say they want to help these people out of poverty if that is so, go to the countries these people come from and build your yacht club over there or down there and hire them there. Cheap scum sucking worms!
x
Well bless their hearts! Now they can get a blister opening a can of tuna fish.
Am doing renovations on house. During a discussion with the contractor he basically said he has no idea if his subcontractors are using illegal aliens. First he’s being deceitful and second they are. He mentioned that one of his subcontractors lost some excellent workers but left the reason unsaid. He’s trying to thread the needle and have it both ways, cheap labor via subcontractors without inquiring into whether the subcontractor is using illegal aliens for labor. This is a small local contractor, one could bet that the big boys like Pulte, Toll Brothers, DR Horton and Lennar are using illegal aliens.
MNN BREAKING…
* ICE ARRESTS POLITICAL PROVOCATEUR MILO YIANNOPOULOS BECAUSE OF HIS NAME
HIS LOOKS DIDN’T HELP, EITHER
Manufactured News Network: “Manufacturing News Without USAID Funding for 60 Days Now!”
Last year, for the 1st time in many, many years the local fast food joints & retail outlets began staffing with local teens. Previously, they were staffed with mostly Guatemalans.
It’s very good to see the local kids that want to learn & earn doing so again.
I’m all in for businesses that can’t survive the change shuttering. They don’t offer anything that America needs to survive & thrive.
“The labor fraud created a fraudulent economy”
AKA; A heroin addict economy. Getting clean is going to be painful, but it has to be done.
Looong overdue!
Heritage Americans will have ample job opportunities!
That’s how you send a message to those globalist twats who can’t function without their foreign slaves.
The horror, some may need to learn to cook and eat at home. Others might have to mow their own lawns and wash their own cars again.
I am nostalgic for neighborhood grocers, tradesmen and retailers. It once worked well. Sick to death of big box nation.
At least they have another week to wear white before Labor Day.
MAGA