Too funny. The economic pretending is so strong almost every outlet leads the Gross Domestic Product news release by saying “better than expected.” Duh! The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the GDP date for the second quarter (Q2) and shows a 3.0% jump in economic growth.
We say “duh”, because it was an entirely predictable result. Why, because imports are a deduction to the GDP equation and imports dropped 30.3% in the second quarter (Table 1, line 19). We said this was going to happen because there was a surge of imported goods in the first quarter as companies tried to be proactive with orders in advance of tariffs.
That massive influx of imports made the Q1 GDP weak (-0.5%). Conversely, with all those goods delivered in the first quarter, the products were not imported in Q2 and the GDP rebounded. The lack of imports, ultimately the lack of deduction, resulted in a 5.18% positive change to the second quarter GDP (Table 2, line 47).
But wait, the winning doesn’t stop there. Remember, the Big Beautiful Bill just passed in July. That means fixed asset investment is likely to expand in Q3 because 100% expensing on capital investment was part of the BBB.
But wait, there’s more. Annual wages spiked 4.4% — double the rate of inflation (2.1%). That means people are growing their wage incomes twice as fast as prices are rising. Real wage growth is back again! Yes, REAL WAGE GROWTH.
WASHINGTON – Recession? What recession? The US economy bucked nonstop doom-and-gloom by economists — including some at Wall Street’s biggest banks — and reported stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter, marked by a surge in hiring and wages.
Gross domestic product – the value of all goods and services produced across the US economy – jumped by a seasonally and inflation adjusted 3% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.
That rebounded from a 0.5% decline in the first quarter and beat estimates of just 2.3% growth. A recession is usually defined by the GDP slipping in two consecutive quarters.
Meanwhile, private employers added 104,000 jobs last month, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday. That reversed a 23,000 drop in June and exceeded the forecast for an increase of 64,000.
Annual wages spiked 4.4% — well above the rate of inflation, which has remained below 3% despite harping that President Trump’s tariffs would jack up prices.
“Our hiring and pay data are broadly indicative of a healthy economy,” Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said.
“Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient.” (more)
This is absolutely what I voted for!! (Plus a few arrests).
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump · July 30, 2025, 6:16 PM
Original Post
I am pleased to announce that the United States of America has agreed to a Full and Complete Trade Deal with the Republic of Korea. The Deal is that South Korea will give to the United States $350 Billion Dollars for Investments owned and controlled by the United States, and selected by myself, as President. Additionally, South Korea will purchase $100 Billion Dollars of LNG, or other Energy products and, further, South Korea has agreed to invest a large sum of money for their Investment purposes. This sum will be announced within the next two weeks when the President of South Korea, Lee Jae Myung, comes to the White House for a Bilateral Meeting. I would also like to congratulate the new President on his Electoral Success. It is also agreed that South Korea will be completely OPEN TO TRADE with the United States, and that they will accept American product including Cars and Trucks, Agriculture, etc. We have agreed to a Tariff for South Korea of 15%. America will not be charged a Tariff. I would like to thank the Trade Representatives who came forward today. It was an Honor to meet them, and talk about the Great Success of their Country!
The arrests look to be coming soon, BNG.
From your texts to God’s ears…
You BuckNutGuy, me and about 100 millions true Americans who love having a business man and not an ass licking politician in the White House, let alone a degenerate, child abusing POS from DE who didn’t have two brain cells to rub together BUT the MSM LOVED HIM!
It wasn’t so much that they loved him. The deal was they played on the same team — had the same owners and marching orders.
…But wait, there’s more!…
If I call in the next ten minutes, will you double my order and give me free shipping?
Sorry friend. But we will multiply the boarder patrol budget 10x and deport illegal invaders with the proceeds!
100% tax on remittances will cover deportation cost.
Yes, you’ll also get entire order: Superrr.! Sized!!
If only we had a mainstream media that was actually truthful and reported all the amazing things Trump is responsible for but unfortunately we don’t so many will remain clueless to the true brilliance of Donald J. Trump.
Perhaps the CIA run Op Mockingbird media can be dismantled along with the Council On Foreign Relations which manages it for the CIA
Depends on what portion of MSM income was funded by USAID😁
Along that line, I did read (from several sources) that right after USAID’s coffers were shut down Politico was screeching to their employees about maybe not being able to make payroll.
How many Deep State Musicians have been taking payments from USAID, or…NED?
Pig Pharma needs to lose its ability to advertise on the Pravda shows. They’re the major financiers.
Winning is a beautiful feeling. Great for everyone.
“It’s the economy stupid”
Thank you Sundance. 😇
I never thought I would see the day we would get an America First Presidency, and here we are. We are truly blessed to have President Donald J Trump as our President. Even rolling back the economic treason of “Free Trade” and going back to the highly successful American System that I call “The President Trump MAGA-American System”
Thank you clan MacLeod! PDJT is a Highlander!
Obama used to do this all the time, and the media/Democrats never complained. He would plan a vacation and schedule a ‘speech’ at the destination, so he could say it was work for the Presidency.
Speeching was the only work Obama ever did. He did nothing to help Americans while he took up space at 1600 Penn. I can’t name a single benefit to America from Obama or Biden.
PDJT is working all the time, even at night and weekends, as well as on this trip. And PDJT delivers great things for America.
BO isn’t fit to shine PDJT’s shoes! He was the biggest scam/fraud shoved on us ever!
….or get his coffee…
Why are the rescission bills so small (1st one, $9 Billion)?
Milieu axed spending in Argentina.
The Tariff Revenue Growth is fantastic; but it doesn’t do much if we keep spending like drunken sailors on crack.
1. Small parcel post Tariff Revenue to kick in soon – my rough quickie estimate is that could bring in an additional $8 – 10 Billion per month!
2. Last I read, DOGE had identified $300 Billion in cuts. WE NEED MORE.
3. 200+ Presidential Appointees are being held hostage by Thune (McConnell) and Speaker Johnson. WTF??!! Where is Trump’s fabled “leverage”??
Can interim appointees do just as well?
4. Has President Trump purged the thousands of Obama and Biden political appointees that will stall hi
MAGA progress? If not, why not??!!
How about you just take the win?
You’d complain if we hanged you with a new rope!
(An old southern saying, for those unfamiliar😏)
I understnd that it only takes ONE congresscritter to request a quorum during their phoney August vacation while they claim to be in joint session so PDJT can’t make recess appointments of those 200+ nominees. THey lie that they are “in session”, like they lie about many other things.
Can’t PDJT find just one congresscritter to bust this lie? One out of 535 to call out this scam… Even Thomas Massie could do it, to restore som cohesion with the Executive Branch…
There are just some people who cannot be pleased with a positive outcome.
I think they call them “The Glass Half Empty” whiners.
In 6 months, PDJT has done more for American workers than any president in 100 years. Yet, here you are complaining because he’s not getting the chores that you want done fast enough.
Maybe this will help your TDS:
Harvard, Yale, and Brown have now been fined $770,000,000 combined.
“promotions and admissions are based on merit…(pause)…and not based on other ‘ideologies’.”
Points 2 and 3 are fine, point one is just DEI for a different group.
So you agree with the antisemitism. Just say so!
No, meritocracy for all. The same folks that went to college campuses and debated students proclaiming “facts don’t care about your feelings” now want safe spaces.
If by Safe Spaces, you mean a place where Jewish students can walk, play, eat, rest, learn, be allowed access to all of campus not just designated Jew space, or simply exist without fear of a beatdown by an enraged mob of foreign jew hating invaders and their crazy-eyed girlfans, then yes we want safe spaces now.
So you want ALL students to enjoy those aspects of student life? I hope you’re not asking for any special treatment for specific groups.
That will certainly buy a Large Lovely Library for DJT’s Presidency.
And I’m certain it will be a truly lovely and beautiful building.
Just imagine the comparison with the upright junkyard Obama has been having “built” (more like dumped from a trash compactor).
CONgress barely passed the 1st $9.4B rescissions package & they had to drop $400M of it to kiss Susan Collins’ ass for her vote.
Any more questions? Never mind…
3% growth isn’t going to do anything when the state and local governments suck up all that excess growth via taxes.
WE THE PEOPLE starts with you
🚨 HOLY CRAP! Trump just revealed auto production in the USA skyrocketed 36%.
The experts were wrong again.
Trump was right.
😎 🇺🇸
🤣😂🤣 You win the Internet!!
A life-long Levi Strauss, brand loyal customer, I abandoned them a couple years ago.
Excellent Betsy!
Ok, that’s just perfectly awesome 😍
I’m happy about the growth, but I don’t want to “grow” our way out of the deficits. I want spending slashed, and burned like Calvin Coolidge, did!!
Okay, whiner. PDJT can control the growth of our economy.
The losers in Congress control the budget. Take it up with them. Oh wait, they are going on vacation again. PDJT does not have enough votes to override a veto.
Apparently you’re the only one who interpreted my remarks as against President Trump. Projection much?
Everyone needs to ignore the mainstream media babble and take a moment and give thanks that President Donald J. Trump is back in the White House!
Absolutely!!
Here is Susan Kokinda’s (Prometheus Action) Midweek commentary post President Trump’s trade deal with the EU.
Fourteen incisive, intuitive minutes, agreeing with Sundance’s analysis and adding her own on PresidentTrump’s upending the decades of British manipulation…in the economic realm, and in the global political one.
An excellent listen.
https://www.prometheanaction.com/the-midweek-update-game-over-how-trumps-eu-deal-just-broke-the-global-elite-july-30-2025/
That is a great listen. Thanks.
Too bad someone doesn’t do a montage of ‘experts’, economists and pundits, droning on and on about how tariffs will raise prices.
The administration’s economic juggernaut, is showing the world and the dimwit democrats, how it’s done.
Smilin Kevin. How do you NOT love him. Move over Jerome sourpuss Powell. There’s a new Happy Camper ready to take your place.
Rapid Response 47
@RapidResponse47
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett: “The Fed still, as Chairman Powell kept saying today, is obsessed on the idea that tariffs are going to cause inflation — but they’ve been saying that, really, since January and it keeps not happening.”
Video linked….
And President Trump and the Executive Branch is pulling this off IN SPITE OF Congress dragging their feet and not confirming all his picks, and IN SPITE OF Congress not doing their part and cutting spending, or codifying the D.O.G.E. cuts and making them permanent, and IN SPITE OF Congress not doing their part and creating a real BUDGET, and IN SPITE OF Congress not wanting to cooperate on the Recissions packages.
CONGRESS IS THE PROBLEM!
And, the feds were instrumental in this win and need to be commended for their hard work……..
Just kidding! They undermine us, but, Trump, TRUMP!, overwhelmed them just like the their cheating in the election!
Thank G-d for Trump!
Hey Rand Paul?
Remember how Trumps team kept trying to tell you and your apoplectic Dem supporters that TRUE ECONOMIC GROWTH was one of the key levers in the BBB, to offset the tax reductions and bring in revenue to the treasury?
Well – Wah-La!!
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
🚨 UPDATE: THE FEDERAL RESERVE chose not to cut interest rates…
….but Jerome Powell and the board’s decision was DISSENTED by Fed Governors Waller and Bowman in favor of an interest rate cut.
This is a RARE time 2 governors dissent. Not since 1993.
Cont….
Can ya just imagine where we’d be if the Fed wasn’t playing interference ?
YES YES YES YES YES YES
If the economy is doing well and the future looks bright because of the policies that President Trump is putting in place (which I agree with), then why should interest rates be cut? I always thought that it was a mistake to keep interest rates so low during the Obama years because the best tool that the Fed has when the economy slows down is to cut interest rates. So if interest rates are already low then that tool isn’t there.
Hmm 🤔, why should we try to maximize our economic gains, especially for working people, when we’re in the midst of a great economy already. Why should we make seed money for businesses or debt reduction more affordable when we already have a Great economy? Why should we make home ownership And mortgages more affordable creating a massive economic/real estate boom when we already have a booming dynamic economy? Hmmm 🧐
Fed funds rate was over 10% in 1984 when we were in the best economic boom of my lifetime. Other problem with interest rates being too low is that it encourages risky economic behavior. Fed funds less than 2% in 2003 and that resulted in housing speculation and the Great Recession of 2008. Fed lowered interest rates to almost zero to recover from that and left them there long after the economy had recovered. But interest rates that low encourage speculation.
I am of the opinion this is a novel economic situation in our country. Economic precedent is perhaps passively instructive, but we’re working a new blueprint under Trump. One not inspired by corrupt political ambitions, but rather to create actual private sector/Main Street economic growth. The point being that interest rate cuts applied in this environment will not have the same effect as when applied in politically motivated economic machinations.
To put it in more treehouse centric terms, interest rates should be driven by the state of the free markets (Uncle Milton Friedman) and not by political ambitions (Keynes). Inflation and gdp are market indicators. Desire to advance USAID funded causes are
not.
Sometimes my groceries are high and sometimes like days of yore….
I’m in SoCal- so I expect to be the last to feel relief- but Powell must also be why we are up and down for groceries, gas, etc…
Survived LA for 20 years–prices never seemed to make sense there.
Been looking to switch jobs for some time. Three total interviews during Biden presidency. Trump gets inaugurated and I have a dozen interviews in a matter of weeks. Startled the new job last month. 40% salary increase. It’s happening.
Same situation for my son. He’s now been triple promoted to Exec Dir at 2.5 months with the company. It’s pedal-to-the-metal in their eyes now that Trump’s in 😊
Also, congrats to you!
Paul Krugman, the greatest economist the world has ever seen and winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, wrote in his Tuesday blog after Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election that, not only would the stock market crash because Trump won, it would never recover…and the world would plunge into a global recession for good measure!!!
On Wednesday, less than 24 hours later, the Dow surged above its all-time closing high!
A couple days before the 2016 election, Simon Johnson, award-winning MIT economist and head of the Global Economics and Management Group, (whatever that is), said exactly the same thing!
Johnson was as spectacularly wrong as Krugman…and a bevy of other highly respected, award-winning economists, (presumably awarded to them by other highly respected, award-winning economists)!
About the same time Politico’s headline read: “Wall Street is set up for a major crash if Donald Trump shocks the world on Election Day and wins the White House.”
Wrong, wrong, wrong…all of them! But they never learn!
Just before the 2024 presidential election, sixteen Nobel Prize winning economists signed a letter expressing their “deep concern” about the risk to the U.S. Economy of a Second Trump Presidency!
The letter begins: “We the undersigned are deeply concerned about the risks of a second Trump administration for the U.S. economy!”
…and yada yada!
Will somebody please tell me if any economist who got it right about Trump and his economic plan for America has ever won a Nobel Prize in economics?
You make a good case for Donald Trump to win the Nobel Prize in economics for practical results along with a Peace Prize…not that that means very much these days.
It’s worse than ‘not very much’ since all the Nobel economists are dead wrong about what causes economic growth!
Perhaps one.
Kevin Hassett is the only guy I know that can smack down these so-called “intellectual” financiers with a smile.
I still miss Wilbur Ross who had the same financial intelligence but so succinctly put these doomsday Wall Streeters in their place with a whisper.
I only remember all this from all the great post Sundance put here on these very pages.
Inflation? Nada. Powell is so late!
The Happy Warrior 😀😁👏
Good News!
I’m certainly not going to argue with a man who’s knowledge of 50 years of actual trading experience, who has advised more governments around the globe, a man who’s bailed out institutions and investors and had under management $3 trillion back in 1985, or, 50% of this country’s Debt explain how the global economy really works versus taking advice from economists who go on talk shows and spew their BS. I live in the real world of trading so I’ve seen it first hand and I love making money from those who believe they understand how markets book. I count on people to be on the wrong side of the trade every single time.
From Martin Armstrong –
Data from the Commerce Department shows that the US gross domestic product rose 3% in Q2 on a seasonally inflation-adjusted basis. The figure may have surpassed estimates by around 0.7%, but it does not indicate the beginning of a rising trend.
First, the figure has already been adjusted for inflation to fit a narrative. The first quarter saw a sharp uptick in imports as businesses attempted to avoid tariffs. Imports then declined by an astounding 30.3% last quarter, with exports falling by 1.8%. A good portion of the final figure is due to net trade swings that distorted the reading. Demand did not necessarily fall in Q2, but was offset by the surge experienced during the uncertainty at the beginning of the year.
GDP rises when imports drop due to the Keynesian formula: GDP=C+I+G+(X-M).
Imports (M) are subtracted from this calculation as GDP measures the DOMESTIC production. A rise in imports is considered an indicator that more goods were produced abroad, therefore, they subtract them from GDP. When imports decline, (X-M) rises and leaves the impression that fewer foreign goods/services were consumed in the US. Imports declining should not be considered growth, but the US refuses to move away from Keynesian model thinking.
Consumer spending, two-thirds of total GDP, rose by 1.4%, but this was offset by a decline in business spending. Final sales to private domestic purchases rose 1.2% in Q2 compared to 1.9% in Q1, indicating weakening demand. Unemployment declined to 4.1% in June after the economy added around 150,000 new positions this year.
This is neither a reason to celebrate nor a reason for concern. Every headline is praising the 3% uptick as a major win without realizing that not much has changed—the American economy is still experiencing stagflation.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/why-us-gdp-rose-3-q2-2025/
(VIDEO) National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett Roasts Chuck Schumer for Calling GDP Growth a “Mirage” and Claiming Data is Actually “Very Troubling”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/07/video-national-economic-council-director-kevin-hassett-roasts
God forbid that circumstances should suddenly help the middle class. We must do something to stop this. Like elect another lefty.
Imagine if the feds lowered the interest rates 3 months ago. Growth would be like 4-6% growth.
Hate to say it but all this wonderful news doesn’t help seniors with a fixed income one bit….also when interest rates come down so do CD rates. Those Basturds in DC couldn’t give us a break on SS then it all goes away 2028.
A huge incdicator is real wage growth. As those wonderful manufacturing jobs return, the real wage growth will continue. It will be great.
I can imagine the satisfaction of a days work for decent pay actually MAKING something or at least being a part of an end product. I can’t see any satisfaction sitting in a cubicle calling people trying to trick them into buying something. Or trying the same thing over the computer either.