As we did in 2015 and 2016, you are not going to find pretending in our analysis of the 2024 presidential race. Yes, my friends we are again going to deconstruct the GOPe roadmap and President Trump’s recent moves highlight his ability to see it also.
Before digging into the details, strategies and motives, let me make two things clear. First, CTH has no relationship with the campaign of President Trump. However, that said, we do share an identical ability to see the GOPe Club maneuvers.
Second, Trump’s moves are Trump’s moves. Meaning, President Trump is making these decisions himself personally. These are his calls, his choices, his strategies, his schedules. These moves are *NOT* coming from outside consultants, campaign advisors or even campaign management. These are 100% independent Trump decisions. I will explain to you how I can tell at a later date.
In the non-pretending world of GOPe conniving, scheming and Machievellian politics, both former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and current Senator Tim Scott will be announcing their intention to run for the GOPe nomination in the near future. This is not in doubt; their entry is assured. The reason is very simple, the Club roadmap contains both timing and roles for each to play. First, here’s Nikki encapsulated:
The RNC will determine the 2024 state primary sequencing next week, but South Carolina will almost assuredly be an early contest (inside first four).
With Tim Scott and Nikki Haley both bringing hometown advantage to the contest (not accidentally because all this stuff is mapped out folks), now you understand why President Trump is holding his first kick-off campaign event in South Carolina with Governor Henry McMaster and Senator Lindsey Graham, on Saturday January 28th.
Pay attention to that January 28th kick-off and notice who will *not* be present.
Donald Trump is seeing the same GOPe map we are, and he is personally assembling neighborhood allies so that he is not caught without a network in a state that will have two hometown players competing against him. President Trump is leveraging his prior endorsement and support for both McMaster and Graham.
Factually, McMaster would not be in place if President Trump did not pull Nikki Haley out of the state and appoint her as U.N. Ambassador, then turn around and support McMaster to fill her spot. Additionally, President Trump has also always kept Graham close, despite the ideological economic policy differences, for exactly this type of leveraged moment. This is political chess, and President Trump can see the GOPe moves.
Now, let’s talk about roles.
Nikki Haley was always going to run in 2024 for the GOP nomination – SEE OUR ARCHIVES – this was never in question. All of her moves were predictable since she left the administration in January 2019. However, Nikki Haley is also not necessarily running for the office of the President, she’s running to be in a power position for the office of the President. In the current construct, she’s positioning to be Ron DeSantis’ vice-presidential candidate pick.
2021: …”“I don’t think [Trump’s] going to be in the picture,” she said, matter-of-factly. “I don’t think he can. He’s fallen so far.” […] “We need to acknowledge he let us down,” she said. “He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.” (link)
A few weeks later: …”Out of respect I would never do anything to go against [Trump], he knows that. I would have a conversation with him and talk to him about it should we decide we want to pursue it; but, um, no, I have a great respect for him and I would never consider running against him.” (link) Video Prompted:
Thus, you see the conniving lying of Nikki Haley. (Anticipate video disappearing)
In the role she has carved out and also accepted, Nikki Haley is going to be the biggest attacker of President Trump on behalf of the management team protecting Ron DeSantis. Nikki has a very specific set of skills, including her willingness to be nasty – that makes her perfect for this role. Haley will be the tip of the spear, providing Ron DeSantis the opportunity to pretend he is just above it all.
Trump also knows DeSantis is pretending right now, and I have no doubt he can see the role Nikki Haley is positioned to play. Watch Trump continue hitting DeSantis as Haley moves in for cover.
You might remember Trump hitting Xi Jinping of China every time Kim Jong-un of North Korea did a directed by Beijing stupid thing. He’ll do the same thing here. DeSantis in the role of Chairman Xi and Haley in the role of Chairman Kim. Each time Haley does the passive aggressive slaps, Trump will hit DeSantis with something.
Haley has no chance at the nomination. Coastal establishment Republicans love her, but that only means she will have money, not votes. The Republican voting base has seen through her schemes and wind-testing for years. Haley is not stupid, she knows this. Heck, even Liz Cheney polls higher than Nikki Haley.
Haley’s positioning right now is for 2023 power and influence despite her lack of base voter support. The best she can hope to achieve in 2024 is a VP pick to get her in the target zone.
Senator Tim Scott is on a pure GOPe mission. He’s the utility insider, the team player taking the South Carolina field to support the team goal of blocking Trump. Scott is visible diversity, yet ideological alignment with the GOPe Club mission.
Tim Scott’s role is what Tim Scott is good at, being a team player on behalf of the GOPe and giving the South Carolina Republican voters, those who detest Haley, an alternative.
What Marco Rubio was in Florida 2016 for non-Jeb voters, Tim Scott is in 2024 South Carolina for non-Nikki voters.
President Trump has this mapped out in exactly this format. CTH saw this SC Desantis/Haley/Scott alignment forming last year and we said to prepare for a great deal of announcing as soon as the RNC winter meeting concludes…. Which happens not coincidentally, to conclude at the same time as Trump’s kick-off in South Carolina. Again, strategery.
The GOPe outline includes Harmeet Dhillon as part of team ‘Ready for Ron,’ and the DeSantis management and branding team have recruited all the customary conservative media allies to stop Donald Trump. Their problem is the inauthentic and deceptive nature of running for ’24 while pretending they are not running for ’24. It’s cowardly.
The 2024 operation includes RdS hiding behind the willing skirt of Nikki Haley and then pontificating.
Keep watching.
I keep saying the 2024 GOP nomination is going to be fun because this is an epic Wall Street -vs- Main Street battle that needs to be done. The conniving Republican political class are openly wearing their anti-working class uniforms now. Despite their efforts to remain hidden, and thanks entirely to their hubris, they are glowing.
The primary contest in 2024 is going to be epic, because this time the MAGA scruffnecks will, for the first time in years, clearly see who the enemy within the Republican ranks really are. This makes them so much easier to defeat, and also explains why the professional managers behind Ron DeSantis are desperate to keep his alignment hidden.
Emerson College Polling conducted a granular poll in late November [DATA HERE] & [Cross Tabs Here] highlighting some really interesting stuff.
First, amid GOP voters, Liz Cheney at 4% is beating Ted Cruz (3%), Nikki Haley (3%) and Larry Hogan (1%) for the 2024 GOP nomination. How funny is that?
I mean it’s funny as hell when you look at it from the position of Nikki Haley and the detached billionaires that are going to have to fund her. We’re just not into you Nikki. LOL. Also, I mean, c’mon, ya gotta laugh. Imagine being one of the former 2016 members of Team Ted Cruz and seeing the insufferable Liz Cheney beating him in current 2022 polling… Seriously, ROFLMAO. Yer’ killing me. I mean could the Cruz Crew pick a winner or what? Too funny.
Even better are the ways Emerson uses the demographics of the poll to explain the political alignment and who the typical supporters are for President Donald Trump (55%) -vs- Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (25%). The Emerson polling data nails the demographics perfectly.
(Emerson) – […] Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling noted, “There is a stark education divide among Republican primary voters. A 71% majority of voters with a high school degree or less support Trump in 2024 whereas 14% support DeSantis.
A 53% majority of those with a college degree, some college, or associate’s degree support Trump while 28% support DeSantis. By contrast, Republican voters with a postgraduate degree are most split: 32% support Trump, 29% support DeSantis, and 18% support Mike Pence for the Republican nomination.”
Kimball added: “There is also an age divide in the Republican primary: younger voters under 50 break for Trump over DeSantis 67% to 14%, voters between 50 and 64 break for Trump 54% to 32%, while Republicans over 65 are more split: 39% support Trump and 32% DeSantis.” (read more)
So, President Trump wins every demographic, but to see what groups leans more favorably toward Ron DeSantis it looks like this:
DeSantis Voters – Older, over educated, wealthy, Wall-Street, non-working, investment class, predominately white, left-leaning Republicans with delicate sensibilities. The more of each of these attributes the person carries, the more likely they are to support DeSantis.
Trump Voters – Younger and middle-aged, multi-racial, working class, hardcore, Main Street, paycheck earners. ie. the middle class. The more of each of these attributes the person carries, the more likely they are to support President Trump.
It doesn’t get much more easily defined.
Trump is defined by Main Street. DeSantis is defined by Wall Street.
That demographic data shows the pattern analysis of exactly what is going on.
It doesn’t matter how many candidates line up in the non-MAGA political lane; they are all coming from the same cocktail class circuit.
Here comes the kicker…. As more people find out about the management operation of Ron DeSantis, that has been happening in the background, the more DeSantis will bleed support back toward MAGA.
Think of this in realistic terms. Team MAGA is running on authenticity and honesty. Team DeSantis has to run on duplicity (pretending not to be running) and continual defense to keep people from finding out about the inauthentic and dishonest nature of the operation.
Ask yourself, which team would you rather be on?
Within that answer you discover why this campaign is going to be so much fun.
MAGA has nothing to hide. The GOPe have everything to hide.
We can admit every downside because the ultimate goal is pure. They must deny every downside because the ultimate goal is duplicity.
MAGA has nothing to lose that we haven’t already lost because of the GOPe corruption and lies. However, the GOPe have everything to lose in their effort to retain power.
Truth is a powerful weapon, and no one uses that weapon better than Donald J Trump.
Yes, I’m smiling at how easy it is going to be for President Donald Trump to trigger them.
Let’s work on having “honest elections.” Nothing will matter if we can/t get a true vote! Can I say that loud enough?
I would like to see the House of Representatives make the next election priority #1. If not them, then who will take on the tragedy that has occurred in our nation’s voting arena?
Trump will be OK when the dust settles.
No one over age 62 who has saved for retirement only to see the communist/democrats abscond with our savings; no one who has worked for an average of 30 years and retired; and no one who receives help for disabled or orphaned children through social security is going to support doing away or tweeking our security systems to benefit billionaire politicians. NO ONE!
DeSantis will make a great president in 2028…however, we have to use our able resources while they can still think and do.
DeSantis would do well to join up with Trump and learn how to navigate the swamplands of D.C. well before stepping into quicksand. Those who rule in D.C. today are pure Communists and their lust for power is undeniable. 12 years of Trump/DeSantis (if he can stay honest) would be a great thing for the United States of America.
” DeSantis will make a great president in 2028…however ”
I beg to differ.
Desanctimonius is a corporation tool that has and will sellout America first.
Back in 15 some were saying Ted Cruz might/could/would…..
Desanctimonius is Teddy jebbers.
DeSantis had tepid support from the Republican insiders while he ran Florida as an anti-vax, anti-mask territory. But even during those times, millions of Floridians were vaxed and masked under Government edict.
Only after the dirty thumbs in the narrative/fiction dike could no longer hold and the Covid Scam became impossible to hide, did Republican insiders get on the “DeSantis train” claiming to have been with him all along.
Most people forget that at the onset of lockdowns/mandates enacted in mid – March 2020 all 50 governors were onboard including DeSantis and the vaunted Kristi Noem.
its all optics ….In the end they will all have their tails in-between their legs and tell everyone vote Trump….trust the plan. Its long its brutal but this isnt an overnight fix.
To me the disconnect and lack of education about economic issues among Republican voters is striking.
Basically many voters have been conditioned to repeat Cavuto Live Wall Street garbage talking points.
Trump’s strength is the America First economic policy which is NOT what many voters or pundits understand.
Ron DeSantis comes from the Paul Ryan/Cavuto crowd.
He has not said one thing about economic policy.
Desantis hasn’t said anything about economic policy? He did better than that he implemented policy that made Florida a boom state. Actions speak louder than words.
Only when “the Markets” (the skimming and churning of paper in the Dow, Nasdaq and the 500) get dropped as the yardstick of American progress and success, will the average American find the true yardstick of American strength.
So many don’t have even a basic understanding of Federalism, and it’s our strongest advantage. One can’t really have a strategy without it. And they don’t want to put the effort in to learn it. Lazy.
None of this will amount to anything until we put our elections back on a fair footing, and this just ain’t gonna happen. Change will require something more that the single vote each of us is entitled to.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/18/politics/donald-trump-evangelicals-2024/index.html
This article reminds me look for who will be the Ted Cruz of 2024? The candidate designed to chip away the section of the base that is focused on Religious Right, Right to Life and looks for an overtly Christian candidate.
Pence &/or Pompeo will fill this role when they declare. But the media working to weaken this sector of voters away from President Trump is already happening
It is really messed up that people actually support Pompeo. Like we need more CIA.
Hard to deny that a vote for Trump is a vote for more LGBTQ ideology in the schools, in the military, and in the adoption agencies.
“In your face, MAGA base.”
Why do you think that, specifically?
youre nuts
Having been elected to my county Central Committee in 1992, and worked to educate my fellow church members about the RESPONSIBILITIES of being godly citizens, the STEWARDSHIP OF FREEDOM we all have … To their shrugs and more talk about bake sales… I just gave up.
People of faith should be the strongest, wisest, most observant citizens around.
If Ronna McDaniel is such a disaster, and Harmeet Dhillon is GOPe, who should be voted as RNC Chairperson?
Still not Ronna.
Mike Lindell is the only MAGA choice. I hope he wins but doubt it will happen.
If Harmeet does, it will at least have one upside: it will give the deplorables further education on how to spot the duplicity sundance speaks of. I think she will show her true colors in short order.
Agreed! But, getting rid of a Romney is priceless!
Harmeet, not to be overtly personal, could go either way. She’s sharp enough to know who all the big money players are, but know the new Republican voters, brought in by Trump, will stay home if the Republican Party goes back to it’s anti-American ways.
Remember “Free Trade”, out-sourcing, killing American industry, jobs and towns.
Where do you think the insult “fly-over country” came from ?
Harmeet showed her colors when she nailed on Kari Lake in AZ to rush to GA with Barbour as her companion under the pretense she was going to help Walker only to NOT help!
Mike Lindell is the 3rd candidate running for RNC
Dhillon has real momentum and a real chance of beating Ronna
Ronna had promised to not run this time, that this past term would be her last when she run in ’21. smh
Let’s remember that Dhillion fought what some grassroots conservatives view as the GOPe in TN
“Starbuck chose to fight back, contracting civil rights and constitutional attorney Harmeet Dhillon’s Liberty Law Center firm to challenge this decision. Our Managing Editor Jen Van Laar reported exclusively that Dhillon had filed evidence preservation notices to the 17 Tenn. RNC Executive Board Members who were responsible for making the decision to remove him and his opponents from the primary ballot.”
https://redstate.com/jenniferoo/2022/06/04/tenn-congressional-candidate-robby-starbuck-wins-his-challenge-against-state-gop-will-be-placed-back-on-august-ballot-n574677
This article got me to start my bookmarks folder for 2024. Love me some sundance prognostication!
I foresee another Hollywood Squares game in our future. ☺️ I have fond memories of the one for 2016.
First three question for the 2% Nikki:
You said of President Trump. and I quote “We need to acknowledge he let us down,” she said. “He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.”
Exactly what is the path he lead that we shouldn’t have gone?
Specifically how did he let us down?
What specifically do you dislike about the America First agenda and President Trump making good on his promises?
If she had to answer these questions that will never be asked, it would be like three torpedos hitting her below the waterline and she’d keel over and vanish after the first few primaries, especially if she mentions Jaunuary 6th.
I’ll answer most of your question:
Trump needs to come clean about making a huge mistake with Operation Warpspeed. He needs to APOLOGIZE about being wrong about the vax, and can claim Fauci, Birx, Walensky er.al. misled him horribly.
He may be too narcissistic to do this, but it might win him the presidency, again.
I think Haley is mostly referring to his reaction to the stolen election in her above comment. DJT is right to beat that drum to death, and call them out on the Jan. 6 bullcrap.
Why does he need to apologize for doing his job?
OK, go vote for a RINO who will stab you in the back, every time.
You just go ahead and cut off your nose (and every elses) to spite your face!
You ungrateful wretch.
Haley is another power-hungry rino.
She’s the prostitute paid for services rendered, then goes back behind the curtain.
She is hoping for the vp slot though.
Trump will win SC by 20 pts.
As a South Carolinian since 1985:
Nikki lost me when she was duplicitous on that flag.
Tim lost me when he endorsed Lisa-the-Hag-from-Alaska.
Lindsay lost me totally when his abortion BS stifled the 2022 Red Wave.
These Creatures of the Swamp will NEVER get my vote again!
SD at his finest here. I see a Trump – Noem or Trump – Lake ticket.
While I clearly support Trump over any of the other clowns being discussed or otherwise putting themselves forward, President Trump has a real problem, and his deflections are hurting him: “Vaccines.” DeSantis is preparing to employ that as a weapon against Trump, but he’s smartly disguising it as a battle with Big Pharma and the DeepState.
I wish he would address it, too… But I think he has his reasons. It’s like my elderly clients who looked intently at me when I talked to them… And I misunderstood their intensity…
They weren’t trying to understand everything, they were deciding if they could trust me with the parts they would NEVER understand… A character/trust issue.
Trump and the vax is the same… I don’t understand why he doesn’t address this issue upfront, but I TRUST HIS CHARACTER IN THIS, BECAUSE HE HAS BEEN SMART, SACRIFICIAL, HONORABLE. AND STEADFAST IN ALL THE THINGS I CAN UNDERSTAND AND HAVE SEEN HIM DO SO FAR. And I trust him to address it in his time and way.
Quite frankly, I’m sick of these impatient children stomping their feet in a temper tantrum, discounting what he has done so far, all the sacrifices he has made, insisting that he come when they call. “I won’t vote for him if he doesn’t tell me NOW”.
IMO, he has proven himself many times over. I can trust him with this.
I will post this again as I have to a few other commenters on the thread. The following comments were posted earlier in the thread.
47Yinzer:
Here’s an observation from Jeff Childers’ “Coffee & Covid” Substack today, about Trump, the vaccines, and the swirl of controversy around the two of them. Tactical thinking on display from Mar-A-Lago? What say you, SD? What do you say, readers? “What I find most interesting is that there is a manifest upside to Trump’s stubborn recalcitrance [to mention the harm the vaccines are causing]. It is perfectly clear that, if Trump ever does attack the vaccines’ safety and efficacy, then the leftwing media will immediately, rabidly, and irrationally defend the jabs to the death. They would use Trump’s opposition to the jabs as evidence — in and of itself — that the jabs are the most brilliant invention since Alexander Fleming accidentally sneezed his prized fungus-spore collection right into his bacteria dish. “Trump’s opposition to the jabs would mean the democrats and the media would never back down. “So, while it is vexing, it is also helpful that Trump defends the jabs. He is making it much easier for the truth to come out. It’s like he’s almost daring them to blame him for vaccine injuries.”
Bp-88:
This makes me think of a Trump rally when the crowd boo-ed as he spoke about the covid shots. He said something like “no, you’re playing right into their hands…”. And I never understood what he meant. “Vaccine” politics. Also, the covid injections rolled out worldwide. The world leaders and governments were in lockstep pushing these covid “vaccines” on their citizens. That has to play into his silence.
DanteIsAWhiteCat:
If PDJT opposed the mRNA shots, then immediately the Global Cabal would do everything that they could do to “prove” him wrong. It would be non-stop talk about mandatory vaccines and how Trump wants to kill people. His silence on opposing the mRNA shots takes that Orange Man Bad talking point off of the table. Remember, Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin were beloved treatments in the medical community until PDJT spoke positively about them. Then they became pariah medicine, banned medicine, and rationed medicine.
Val1:
I feel it in my bones Trump will use the shots to his advantage. Remember he never mandated anything and left it up to state/local officials. They wanted a top-down response but he correctly allowed each governor to govern their state. As President he “trusted” his advisors like any other president. He’s a real estate guy not a virologist. Ultimately people had a choice even if they claimed they didn’t. You watch. Let’s see what happens……
Katherine McCoun:
Yes, you are correct, and Trump never mandated them for federal employees, nor did he promote lockdowns. Better still, because of him, we explored Ivermectin and alternate drug treatments. And because of Trump, DeSantis also became aware of those alternate treatments.
Now, think it through to understand why PDJT is taking the approach he is vis-a-vis OWS/the mRNA injections.
BTW, Top Guv DeSanctimonious was not always against the lockdowns/mask and injection mandates. In fact, all 50 governors were all in on that approach in mid – March 2020.
Trump sees it? But is bringing Lindsey with him? Come on.
Look what came out this morning:
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/dr-robert-malone-says-he-cant-support-trump-while-ex-president-stands-by-covid-19-jabs/
President Trump has to find a way to say he was bamboozled by the Deep State army, and much of his own Administration in the Lie of the Covid Scam.
Without a clear Mea Culpa, there a millions of voters sitting on the sidelines.
Trump was in a no win situation. Push a vaccine and hope it works or don’t and know that the media would blame you each and every death. He was vulnerable to manufactured blame on many fronts weather he took action or not.
Exactly! He was damned if he did and damned if he didn’t. I personally would never take the shot, but I was grateful for the shot for one reason….. it caused businesses to get rid of their stupid mandatory mask policies.
I would only add that you may consider the skyrocketing costs of living in FL. He’s implementing a number of policies that make home ownership costs excruciating unless you are very wealthy. RDS just may be driving the middle class out and that may increase the number of people that would vote for him – enough to potentially win the state. Then what? Great analysis btw.
Who be this here Knikki Haley? Sayeth this SC whyte boy.
Trump, no matter what!