Note – over the next several weeks, expect to see a Jeb Bush come-back to overtake Marco Rubio. Senator Rubio was never intended to be the torch-bearer for the GOPe nomination, he does not have political permission from the penthouse power brokers.
A new NYT/CBS Poll (full pdf below) shows candidate Donald Trump with a comfortable national lead over second place Ted Cruz. Third place Marco Rubio, while being supported by the new-money GOPe crowd (Hedge-Funders), does not have the fully vested approval of the Wall Street Oligarchs – watch his position carefully.
There are several indications that Ted Cruz has peaked, and there are certainly indications that Marco Rubio’s peak occurred about 3 weeks ago, between Christmas and New Year. In the next three weeks we can expect to see some rather dramatic shifts; they will be most notable in the February States (Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina).
We are now entering the Thunderdome phase, and you can expect to see simultaneous trip-wire flares triggered at any moment. All of the candidate Super-PAC banked money will now be deployed with exponential fury. So too will the trickery and shenanigans.
It appears the Modern Mainstream GOPe (Paul Ryan, Weekly Standard types) are positioning Rubio; hence Nikki Haley is valuable to Team Rubio as a South Carolina firewall. If you go back to the origin of the GOPe road-map (even before Trump announced) you’ll note this need was anticipated.
However, the Old Guard GOPe (Mitch McConnell, Haley Barbour and Wall Street U.S. CoC types) will remain steady with prior investments in Jeb Bush.
Again, as previously stated, never ever expect Jeb to drop out – he will be afforded all rights and privileges of his bloodline and pedigree (see here for reminder).
If Trump were not a factor, eventually a unification of Modern GOPe and Old Guard GOPe would naturally emerge, and Team Rubio would acquiesce (with huge financial incentive) to the pedigree Old School crowd. The higher Marco Rubio’s polling or delegate count can be, the more leverage he has for influence, power and money.
Their individual delegates then become melded in a GOPe unified effort against Ted Cruz (again, the original road map) with full support of party insiders.
However, with Trump remaining the formidable frontrunner in the race, the strategic value is no longer in early unification. The smart GOPe play is for Jeb and Rubio to remain as individual alternatives to the vulgarian, and thereby reaching a co-equal status with their original enemy Ted Cruz.
If you think of the current race, with the original road-map in mind, you see Trump leads at 36%, with Cruz 19% and Jeb/Marco at 18%. A tight contest if the GOPe pairing can knock down Ted Cruz a little more.
From here on out, always look at Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio’s numbers as a combined total. Together they are 19% Virginia, 16% New Hampshire (Monmouth), 18% Iowa (QPac), and 19% Iowa (PPP).
In the “Thunderdome Phase” Trump has Bush/Rubio on one side, and Cruz on the other.
New York Times – […] Only about a third of Republican primary voters who back a candidate say their minds are made up. But most Trump supporters — 52 percent — say they have decided. A narrow majority of Republican primary voters say they expect Mr. Trump to be the party’s nominee, similar to the finding of last month’s poll.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz run closely among very conservative voters, but Mr. Trump now leads among evangelicals 42 percent to 25 percent.
“I think he’s going to try to do what’s best for the working man,” said Kevin Jarrell, 41, from Proctorville, Ohio, who said he was an evangelical Christian. “He’s got money so he’s not going to try to do what’s best for him. He’s going to try his best to create jobs and he’s going to shut out the refugees.” (read more)
[scribd id=295274634 key=key-X45RDwoxxxTrdGKrLNUk mode=scroll]
With Bush/Rubio right on his heels (and often tied), and with Trump punching back, you can better understand the urgency behind Cruz’s attacks. Example: