A recent poll from UMass (full pdf below) shows Donald Trump and Ben Carson clearly in the lead. However, the real highlight is how low Jeb Bush polls.
AMHERST, Mass. – Donald Trump and Ben Carson have a dominating lead over the rest of the field of Republican presidential candidates, and should either of them drop out of the primary race the other stands to benefit the most, according to a new UMass Poll released today by the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
Overall, Trump leads the Republican field with 31 percent of likely Republican voters listing him as their first choice, based on a nationwide online survey of 318 likely Republican primary voters conducted by YouGov America under the direction of the UMass Poll from Nov. 5-13. Carson comes in second at 22 percent, followed by Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio at 13 percent and 9 percent, respectively. No other candidate was able to garner 5 percent support.
The poll also asked the second choice preference among respondents, and 36 percent of Trump supporters named Carson as their secondary choice, while Trump is the second choice preference among 30 percent of those backing Carson, indicating that if one of those two candidates were to leave the race the other would benefit significantly.
“Trump and Carson continue to lead the way as they have for longer than many thought they would, but Cruz and Rubio are well positioned to take advantage if either or both of them falter,” said Brian Schaffner, director of the UMass Poll.
The poll, which also tallied support among confirmed registered voters, also asked respondents to indicate every candidate they were willing to support in their state’s primary, as well as every candidate for whom they would not be willing to vote. Over half of Republican likely voters said they would be willing to support Carson and Trump. Jeb Bush attracted the most opposition among Republicans, with half of all respondents indicating that they would not be willing to vote for him. Other candidates attracting high levels of opposition included Sen. Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, Gov. Chris Christie and Jim Gilmore. (read more)
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