MAGAnomic September Jobs Report: 134,000 Added, and a Massive Upward Revision +87,000 Equals 3.7% Unemployment Rate

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release the first estimated September jobs report earlier today [Details Here] reflecting 134,000 new jobs added last month.  However, that’s not the story – The BLS revised August upward +69,000, and July +18,000.

The cumulative jobs gained 134k + 87k equals 221,000 new jobs. Lowering the unemployment rate to 3.7% the lowest unemployment statistic since 1969.

First, a note on the *revisions*.  How did the BLS underestimate (twice) the August jobs report by 70k ?  This is stunning: 201k -vs- 270k. That’s a 30% error rate?  Someone’s head needs to roll, because it looks like politically motivated statistical sandbagging.

BLS – […] The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up from +147,000 to +165,000, and the change for August was revised up from +201,000 to +270,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 87,000 more than previously reported.  After revisions, job gains have averaged 190,000 per month over the last 3 months.

(BLS) Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 134,000 in September, compared with an average monthly gain of 201,000 over the prior 12 months. In September, job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)

Employment in professional and business services increased by 54,000 in September and has risen by 560,000 over the year.

Health care employment rose by 26,000 in September. Hospitals added 12,000 jobs, and employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up (+10,000). Over the year, health care employment has increased by 302,000.

In September, employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 24,000. Job gains occurred in warehousing and storage (+8,000) and in couriers and messengers (+5,000). Over the year, employment in transportation and warehousing has increased by 174,000.

Construction employment continued to trend up in September (+23,000). The industry has added 315,000 jobs over the past 12 months.

Employment in manufacturing continued to trend up in September (+18,000), reflecting a gain in durable goods industries. Over the year, manufacturing has added 278,000 jobs, with about four-fifths of the gain in the durable goods component.

Within mining, employment in support activities for mining rose by 6,000 over the month and by 53,000 over the year.

Employment in leisure and hospitality was little changed over the month (-17,000). Prior to September, employment in the industry had been on a modest upward trend. Some of the weakness in this industry in September may reflect the impact of Hurricane Florence. (read more)

National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow discusses formally and informally:

.

Informally:

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This entry was posted in Big Government, Donald Trump, Economy, Election 2018, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

98 Responses to MAGAnomic September Jobs Report: 134,000 Added, and a Massive Upward Revision +87,000 Equals 3.7% Unemployment Rate

  1. Ospreyzone says:

    Boom. The speed of Trump.

    Liked by 11 people

  2. Trumpstumper says:

    And how many times in 8 years did they revise Zero’s numbers in an upward fashion?…

    Heck yeah- heads need to roll!

    Liked by 17 people

  3. Grandma Covfefe says:

    Winning is so fun…today is a good day for winning.

    Thank you, President Trump and MAGA Team.

    Liked by 11 people

  4. Josh says:

    Now if we can just stop the Fed from raising interest rates every quarter until they manage to “slow the economy down”… whatever that means… the more they raise the interest rate, the more expensive existing debt becomes… I know I’m scrambling to pay down my larger CC’s and loans because the monthly payments have all started getting excessively high just from rate increases… it’s a joke…

    Liked by 3 people

    • starfcker says:

      You may have to start living within your means, Josh. The era of free money is coming to an end.

      Liked by 1 person

      • starfcker says:

        And just so you don’t think I’m picking on you, I just got the notice today that a small mortgage that I hold got a hefty rate increase. It’s annoying, but it’s makes me realize it’s time to get that sucker paid off. We are going back to an economy based on earnings, not debt. We need savers to get paid for their savings. There will be paying, for all of us. Make the adjustment, take one for the team.

        Liked by 7 people

      • Josh says:

        Paying down my business / personal debt is my #1 priority… Previously it was not a big deal because interest rates were so low, but now its critical… if rates keep going up, I won’t be able to afford my payments anymore, or will have to radically tighten the belt… ugh… no fun… but my larger point is that it seems like the Fed is raising rates for now reason, except to try and damage what PDJT has accomplished… From my limited understanding, the Fed traditionally raises rates to curb inflation, but based on what I’ve been reading, current inflation is actually BELOW their target threshold (1.7% vs 2%). I have a lot of reservations about the Fed and its reasons for doing the things it does… Would not put it past them to try and crash the economy for political reasons…

        Liked by 4 people

    • snarkybeach says:

      the Fed raised rates twice (once after the 2016 election) in the eight years of Obama’s term. They are as clueless as Obama as to how to grow an economy.

      Liked by 3 people

    • The Fed may be multiplying people following your lead to pay down Debt.

      If so, that transition could kill growth in the Retail Holiday Season!

      If so, January deals could be sweet.

      Liked by 2 people

    • tdaly14 says:

      No more free money. Borrowing money should never be free, that’s how countries get destroyed. Cheap money destroys the world!

      Liked by 1 person

      • Josh says:

        I know that money isn’t free… I still have to pay interest on all my CC’s, student loans and business debt… what is frustrating is that some central banker can decide to raise rates on a whim… the Federal Reserve is a scam, and their ability to arbitrarily control monetary policy based on star-chamber decisions is very wrong… the power to set monetary policy should return to Congress where it was originally vested…

        Liked by 4 people

        • starfcker says:

          Josh, the whole idea of adjustable rates needs to be looked at real hard. Almost all loan rates used to be fixed. There’s no reason for them to have to be adjustable. That’s where the damage is caused. It wouldn’t matter where the interest rate was, as long as you were locked into what you borrowed. You could look at the number, and decide if you could afford it. Adjustable rates are the issue. Lots of changes coming. In the meantime, pay it down. No matter what happens, you will be better off for that

          Liked by 5 people

        • Darklich123 says:

          You want those idiots to control it????????? I’m ok with the for profit fed. I wish we had a food or labor based economy but w.e

          Like

    • Amy2 says:

      I’m with you on the Fed for now. Let’s SEE a little inflation before we fight it. Even the President is not happy with them right now.

      Liked by 3 people

  5. Zabadak says:

    Sandbagging is correct. When O was President, they always got revised downwards and it was always unexpected. Sheesh. Deep staters imbedded deeply in the Deep State. Rank and file needs to be looked at. Enemies entrenched everywhere. We need a thorough house cleaning from top to bottom.

    Liked by 11 people

    • fleporeblog says:

      I absolutely agree with Sundance! Heads absolutely need to roll because in less than three weeks, the Advance Estimate for 3rd Quarter real GDP rate comes out. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has the 3rd Quarter forecasted at 4.1% as of today.

      While listening to Bloomberg Radio earlier today, they had an Economist that said he was revising his 3rd Quarter forecast from 2.9% to somewhere in the low 3%.

      The fact that the Advance Estimate comes out 10 days before the Election leads me to believe they are going to do everything in their power to lowball it. It wouldn’t shock me if they are off by a full percent!

      Liked by 7 people

    • Jim in TN says:

      Didn’t one of the people recorded by project veritas describe sandbagging like this? Delaying reports until the last possible moment so that information and projects are delayed.

      Liked by 4 people

      • dd_sc says:

        Yes; I think it was the paralegal from DOJ that was talking about Deep State people doing that. Also pointed out it was a way to extend welfare payments.

        Liked by 2 people

  6. starfcker says:

    Who would have ever thought that bringing back real employment would end up employing more people. Now let’s get the cutting that welfare, pronto.

    Liked by 9 people

  7. Curry Worsham says:

    Liked by 9 people

  8. big bad mike says:

    There were close to 6000 Hotel Workers on strike in Chicago for most of the month of September.
    Maybe that was a factor as well in lower employment for Leisure and Hospitality.

    http://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/September-2018/Hotel-Workers-Have-Been-on-Strike-for-One-Week–And-Restaurants-are-Feeling-the-Squeeze/#/0

    Liked by 3 people

    • WSB says:

      Not sure why the struggle industry wide; however, I just had a new project signed today to assist with the interiors of an independent/assisted living campus. Fairly small but thrilled to have a new project in hospitality!

      One issue I had seen in 2016 was that many projects were in a holding pattern, pending who got into office. Basic planning for either scenario, and the typical project is one to three or more years due to all of the idiotic regulations.

      I am hoping that our President takes a really good look at his own previous professional sector and starts relieving us of all of the crazy requiremts we go through to design and build hotels and resorts.

      Liked by 2 people

  9. woohoowee says:

    Brought to you by PT45 and the Wilburines 🙂 MAGA!

    Liked by 3 people

  10. feralcatsblog says:

    “There he goes cheating again. Using his magic wand … … yet again”.
    – Barack Obama

    Liked by 4 people

  11. Looks like BLS is “COOKING the BOOKS”: If they couldn’t count the jobs in July and August … after those months had ended, there’s no way in hell they can suddenly claim in October that July specifically missed 18,000 and August missed 69,000 or that economic growth suddenly CRATERED by 50% from 270,000 to 134,000 in September.

    RE: How did the BLS underestimate (twice) the August jobs report by 70k ? This is stunning: 201k -vs- 270k. That’s a 30% error rate?

    Liked by 7 people

  12. Niagara Frontier says:

    The fuzzy figures could be an inside game to trap the President into releasing incorrect numbers, and to violate the Office of Management and Budget’s Statistical Policy Directive No. 3. This directive prohibits employees of the Executive Branch from commenting publicly on the data until at least one hour after the official release time.

    Remember the swamp rats were ready to crucify him back in June of this year for commenting prematurely on good economic numbers. Some even accused him of trying to manipulate markets.

    Never underestimate the pettiness and duplicity of swamp rats.

    https://www.newsweek.com/trump-jobs-tweet-broke-953490

    Liked by 3 people

    • WSB says:

      The fake numbers, though, do not reflect what is happpening on the ground.

      If the lower numbers keep interest rates from being raised, maybe we should just keep a lid on the argument?

      Like

  13. I’m calling BLS B.S. on a “drop in leisure & hospitality employment”, too:

    How do they know that workers weren’t simply POACHED by higher-paying high-growth industries that had run out of “workers looking”, or that workers had returned to school, leaving leisure & hospitality to attract workers off their welfare and mommy-care couches?

    RE: Employment in leisure and hospitality was little changed over the month (-17,000).

    Liked by 2 people

  14. JAS says:

    And how old were you in 1969? C’mon, lets hear it.

    I’ll start. I was 15. I am now 64. That is practically my whole life.

    MAGA!!!

    Liked by 2 people

  15. Burnt Toast says:

    How did the BLS underestimate…?

    Assuming BLS is –
    – Fair / Unbiased / Objective
    – Using good models that reasonably estimate economic indicators based upon initial data.

    That is, BLS is using estimation models that, on average, are dead on.

    What does that tell us about –
    – Obama?
    – Trump?

    Obama , whose number were routinely adjusted downwards, consistently underperformed BLS estimating models. He did worse than anybody could reasonably imagine.

    Trump, whose numbers are routinely adjusted upward, consistently over performing BLS estimating models. He does better than anybody could imagine.

    The MSM, which buries corrections in both cases and is naked in its bias, believes this to be true.

    Liked by 2 people

  16. tdaly14 says:

    What was the 230 or 260t number yesterday? Why two numbers different days? Thanks

    Like

  17. bullnuke says:

    What makes me mad is that President Trump was able to super charge this economy in less than two years using common sense. What the hell were the other presidents doing? Maybe our president is so brilliant that he makes it looks easy. We could have had a much quicker recovery from the last recession without all the stimulus that skyrocketed the national debt.

    Liked by 3 people

  18. alliwantissometruth says:

    Hispanic Unemployment Record Low…
    Manufacturing confidence all-time high…
    16,000 Govt Jobs Cut Since Trump…
    Construction hiring booming — and many available jobs…
    LIST: Cities With Best [And Worst] Markets…
    POLL: PRESIDENT APPROVAL 51%…

    UNEMPLOYMENT LOWEST SINCE 1969

    The above are the upper headlines on the turncoat Drudge Report site

    Putting aside the brainwashed, the stupid, the corrupt & the insane, tell me again why anyone would vote for a democrat?

    Liked by 3 people

  19. CorwinAmber says:

    what is impressive about this number of 3.7% is that in 1969 there were no unemployed young men in America…you were either in college or heading to Nam…either way, you were not counted as “unemployed”. In fact, there were 3.5 million men in the military in 1968-9 and less than 1.5 million nowadays…which meant Donald Trump had to create an extra 2 million jobs to pick up the slack. If you pulled that number from the ranks of unemployed in 2018, I bet the unemployment rate would probably be close to 3%, but hey, what do I know?

    Liked by 4 people

    • WSB says:

      That’s the assessment I was always wondering about, but our unemployment rate is a fake number. Many of us, as self employed, do not qualify for unemployment insurance and when we are without work, we are not counted,

      Like

    • PLUS, during Nam, our Military Industrial Complex generated massive numbers of ADDITIONAL jobs to supply our warfighting machine (equipment & consumables) and support our deployed troops (food, clothing, facilities, transport).

      Like

  20. Bill Henslee says:

    Many folks may think those numbers are just numbers and it doesn’t matter what the intitial number is if it is corrected later in the day. What this thinking ignores is that the FX currency market is about 4 times the size of the daily trade on the NY Stock Exchange. The traders of FX, from small retail traders to the giant Mega Banks and Hedge Funds, were waiting all week for those numbers. The FX market is affected by these announcements and I personally lost some significant money on the bad numbers. I can’t get that money back when they get revised.

    So I think the Deep State cooking of the books in those departments that release economic numbers every month are very significant parts of the Swamp denizen’s plan to play down the remarkable accomplishments of the President and his administration.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Losses for individual investors and advisors are compounded by MARKET MANIPULATION and INSTANTANEOUS TRANSACTIONS as share prices are WHIPSAWED and MEGA-SHIFTS in investments are executed by co-conspirators between sectors, market-cap groups and Value-Blend-Growth groups.

      Uncanny how YUGE flows OUT of one group/stock on one day flow right back IN a day or two later.

      Like

  21. Milton says:

    The Feds are planning to crash the market. To them all these numbers mean is the economy is overheating and needs to be reigned in. Another warning sign for the Fed is the interest rate on US Treasury Notes have been rising.

    Like

    • gda says:

      Actually that plays right into PT’s hands. It’s too late to affect the 2018 election, and a nice little mini-recession now would mean things will be roaring just in time for 2020.

      Meanwhile PT can blame the Fed for the downturn and curb their powers long term

      WINNING!

      Liked by 1 person

  22. kinthenorthwest says:

    Trump is the greatest ….
    Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/current_events/politics/prez_track_oct05

    Liked by 2 people

  23. 🍺Gunny66 says:

    Liked by 1 person

  24. Milton says:

    These job numbers are not unusual. Remember the US population is growing, so it is not unusual to have more jobs. Also these figures are misleading due to definitions used for jobs. A job does not mean a person hired for 8 hours a day 5 days a week or 2080 hours per year.

    Here is a graph of long term trends

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-05/mystery-americas-mounting-multiple-jobholders

    Like

    • Different take:
      “Remember the US population is growing, so it is not unusual to have more AVAILABLE WORKERS [population growth does not create jobs].”

      We need the BLS to provide better breakdowns:
      • Job Categories: Part-Time vs Full-Time
      • Job Durations: Temp vs Permanent
      • Compensation: Hourly Wages, Benefits, Annual Total Compensation
      … etc.

      Like

      • Milton says:

        Yes population growth may increase the available workers, but a baby is not available to the workforce for 18-20 yeas. However, the immediate affect is the need to provide more, goods, services and shelter

        Like

  25. GweninKC says:

    Wait…revised UP? For the last decade it’s always been revised down. Who knew it could go the other direction? So grateful for the change and for POTUS and FLOTUS.

    Like

  26. President Trump’s got the Global Corporatists cornered:

    • They’ve got to manufacture in America
    … but they can’t bring themselves to idle plants they built in China
    … and alienate the Chinese market for their products,
    … and trigger Chinese Communist reprisals,
    … and invite Chinese Communist nationalization of their assets.

    • The longer they wait to pull the trigger,
    … the more it costs in USA Market Share,
    … the more it costs in margin as Tariffs escalate,
    … the more it costs in delayed & higher-cost Construction due to project backlogs,
    … the more it costs in a less Qualified Pool, Higher Wages and Net Profits.

    • They’re going to have to support Welfare Reform just to have people willing to work
    … who will be increasingly expensive to train
    … who will be decreasingly productive to employ.

    Liked by 2 people

  27. Deplorable_Infidel says:

    I would like to see unemployment numbers skyrocket.

    For many Federal government employees!

    Liked by 1 person

  28. More employment has two very positive benefits for the budget, as well, as revenues increase while welfare/food stamps outlays go down. And, will improve the funds available for the swelling ranks of those collecting social security.

    Once we get the economy working up to its “capacity”, then we will have to work on budget issues–which will be tough as we have significant infrastructure needs. Hopefully POTUS and his cabinet plans for efficiency and targeted reductions in gov’t spending as possible will also help on outgo.

    That said, food stamp rolls have not declined as much as one would expect given the strong economy (currently the lowest in 8 years, at about 39MM, but far higher than historic range of 15-25MM). Most likely the result of still stubbornly lower labor force participation and illegal immigrant participation.

    Ultimately the budget fix will require us to get a better handle on immigration–another reason we need to vote this November to improve majorities in Congress.

    Like

  29. Also meant to say, Kudlow is one of Pres. Trump’s best communicators–so at ease and knowledgeable about his subject. What a great team we have now after winnowing out some of the weaker initial appointees (Preibus, Tillerson, McMaster, Cohn, Spicer among others)

    Like

  30. Tomkat Books says:

    Has anyone done a study comparing the preliminary to the final stats given by DOL? It seems that they were always revised downward during the Obama years and upward during the Trump presidency. This gave Obama a couple of weeks of crowing about more favorable numbers.

    Like

  31. 4430lacey says:

    Yeah, we know what’s going on, its called sandbagging. In order to drain the swamp, the dam(Jeff Sessions is an impediment) needs to blown.

    Like

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