Precursor – Irma Drains Tampa Bay – Marco Island is in The Bulls Eye…

Today is a good opportunity to reference the conversations we have discussed about this in the lead up to today.  In 1960 Hurricane Donna drained the Caloosahatchee River in Fort Myers during her NE turn toward Jacksonville.   Ironically That was September 10th, 1960.  The tidal flows will play a role in the pending Storm Surge.

Tampa Bay, moments ago:

The top of the storm is moving water away from the gulf beaches and barrier islands in proportion to the timing of the tide.  However, all of that water -along with the water carried by the storm’s energy, will come back in with the backside of the storm.  And if that times with an incoming tide….  The results are a fast and widespread storm surge, even up river as all the water piles up.

It looks like Marco Island is in the bullseye.

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117 Responses to Precursor – Irma Drains Tampa Bay – Marco Island is in The Bulls Eye…

  1. redtreesquirrel says:

    Gov Scott delivering a press conference oh hurricane Irma Saturday, but all eyes were on his sign language interpreter. This guy is like a sign language rap artist.

    Liked by 20 people

    • Regina says:

      he’s Very good – very natural and conversational…like listening to a new friend over a beer 😉

      I’ve always thought of interpreters translating (realtime) After hearing the speaker, but with a written statement like this, do they get a copy in advance? Do they have a teleprompter?

      Liked by 2 people

    • Rev.Bro. Generik Broderick says:

      Give that man a raise!

      Liked by 7 people

    • Sandra-VA says:

      I loved this guy! I actually ended up ROFL during this briefing because of the antics of the sign language guy. Very expressive, to say the least…

      He was phenomenal. 😀

      Liked by 6 people

    • Sunshine says:

      WOW. Delightful to watch this guy hand-signing.

      Liked by 3 people

    • jackphatz says:

      Every family has one! LOL

      Like

    • sunnydaze says:

      We have great signers in Florida. Best School for Deaf and Blind is in St. Augustine.

      People move across country to send their kids there. Ray Charles is an alum!

      You’ll notice too, that unlike the TX briefs, the ones from Fl. always make sure that the signer is well in view and completely visible to TV audience.

      Liked by 3 people

      • wondering999 says:

        I took an ASL class because (a) I’m interested, there are some hard-of-hearing family members and (b) wages are often higher with more work opportunities for people who can sign.

        It was more difficult than I expected, for several reasons. One is that the students in the back of the room couldn’t see the teacher well; it would have helped to have the class in a theatrical sort of room, where the teacher is farther down and the students are placed higher up, in tiers. There was such a room at the community college but they wouldn’t use it for this purpose — a shame, but I guess the administrators didn’t know any better and weren’t soliciting input.

        Like

      • wondering999 says:

        In the ASL I class that I enjoyed, we studied two books which were particularly interesting. One by Nora Ellen Groce was about the history of Cape Cod and the part of England (Somerset?) where most of the inhabitants had come from (a century ago before cars). In those old Cape Cod families there was a very high level of hereditary deafness, something like 1 in 8 of the population. They developed an early version of ASL to maximize family productivity and happiness.

        The other book was *For Hearing People Only” which has brief details about the realities of deafness that are useful for hearing people to know.

        Like

        • sunnydaze says:

          I took an ASL course too, wondering, and also had some complaints as to how it was taught. Spoke with the teachers about it. Seemed like they tried to cram waaaay too many signs into each lesson. Not enough time for anyone to actually learn them.

          Frankly, it takes a while for people to develop really effective teaching strategies of different languages. Saw the same thing in the early efforts to teach Chinese language to the world.

          I suspect they’re going thru the same thing with ASL.

          Liked by 1 person

          • wondering999 says:

            Exactly, too much at once. It was overwhelming. I finally decided I’d “settle” for just learning a basic “baby sign language” vocabulary, but I wanted more.

            I like the Transparent Language Online “Word of the Day” method. ASL could be taught this way, with videos: one sign per day, and a sentence to go along. That is digestible for an average person.

            It’s particularly hard for parents who give birth (or adopt) a child with hearing deficits and who want to learn ASL. Some of the teachers and workers at the deaf school were very contemptuous of parents who haven’t learned to sign with their kids (which is isolating and bad for everyone) but I can completely see how the challenges of regular parenting plus working plus other siblings would make it extremely difficult for parents to learn ASL. There was a woman in front of me in the community class who had taken the ASL I class twice, trying to get mastery to communicate better with her son (she was VERY TALL, unfortunately! couldn’t see over her very well. But definitely she needed priority seating)

            Like

            • sunnydaze says:

              Yeah, it’s a shame. I had planned to “get fluent” in ASL but had to give up on the idea cuz the instruction was so crappy.

              Never thought about how difficult it must be for parents, too! Gawd, they have GOT to get their act together on teaching ASL effectively.

              Liked by 1 person

              • wondering999 says:

                I’d love to see that happen. And I think it could — but more through churches and community centers, and with free video lessons. It’s fun stuff if you aren’t being tested and graded and pressured and have to see over the 5’11 momma in front of you

                Like

  2. mw says:

    Praying unceasingly

    Liked by 7 people

  3. Little Berkeley Conservative says:

    My house on Tampa bay was exactly nine feet above high tide. With five feet of storm surge the water water came right up to the doorways. Stay safe Floridians! Our prayers for you and your families to remain healthy and safe.

    Liked by 9 people

  4. Minnie says:

    Our Father who art in Heaven
    Hallowed be Thy name
    Thy kingdom come
    Thy Will be Done
    On earth, as it is in Heaven
    Give us this day
    Our daily bread
    And forgive us our trespasses
    As we forgive those who trespass against us
    Lead us not into temptation
    Deliver us from evil
    Amen

    🙏❤️🙏

    Liked by 35 people

  5. PDQ says:

    Liked by 5 people

  6. quintrillion says:

    This song came to mind at this time.

    Liked by 4 people

  7. Bob Thoms says:

    Local NBC -2 is doing a great job. Very informative and local……..they deserve an award for this coverage.

    I think they teamed up with local ABC network for this uninterrupted coverage.

    Liked by 5 people

  8. Bob Thoms says:

    In trying to stay positive……………this storm can only help the wetlands, it’s econ system and the fawn and flora that occuppy much of SW Florida?

    God’s hand in keeping the planet in sync?

    Liked by 5 people

  9. PDQ says:

    Side by side:

    Liked by 3 people

  10. Gil says:

    Is the video of the Caloosahatchee river showing it higher than before the storm or just the wind and waves? How wide is it and are there a lot of homes along the banks?

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Bob Thoms says:

    Getting close to Marco then Naples;;;; I have such fond memories of Old Naples……spent a lot of time there in the 70s-80s………….sad to see it change over time…and now this event……I don’t know what to say, except my hopes and prayers to everyone in the path.

    Liked by 6 people

  12. ALEX says:

    As predicted the Wall(gold) or trough of high pressure is ‘scooping’ up the Hurricane…The coverage of this storm is just immense obviously..Take care…

    Liked by 4 people

  13. sundance says:

    Liked by 30 people

  14. sundance says:

    Liked by 36 people

  15. sundance says:

    Liked by 21 people

  16. FL_GUY says:

    I learned from hurricane Ivan in 2004 that the longer the hurricane force winds, the higher the backed up water becomes. Ivan was the most bizarre storm I ever went through. Usually, hurricane force winds clear out in 2-4 hours but with Ivan, the hurricane force winds lasted for 12 hours. It backed up the water in the upper bay so high that the I-10 bridge sections floated off the supports. Many fell off and sank and others were totally misaligned. Needless to say, the people unfortunate enough to have houses on the shoreline level got trashed. After Ivan, there were a LOT of For Sale signs.

    Storm surge is a serious problem if you live in low areas. I don’t remember exactly but Ivan backed up the water in the upper bay 20 or more feet. I live 2 blocks from the bay but on a 160′ rise. Storm surge will never be a problem in this neighborhood.

    Liked by 7 people

  17. Apparently family members in Tampa (east of downtown) are “fine”… rain and not too strong of winds yet, so they say. Cousin just now nailing plywood to windows; daughter “feels better” –geez I pray their homes are high ground enough.

    Family in north Naples, East of 75 are “fine”, though lost power at 10am. Dad says 103 mph winds happening now and he could hardly stand up outside as he was checking the fuel level of the generator. His home has been thru 120 mph winds before and roof just recently inspected and his home is not in low-lying area flood-anticipated area, they are hosting neighbors who have no generator. Neighbors helping neighbors. They are optimistic and have done all they could to prep their area/houses…

    Continued prayers for all in Fla!!

    Liked by 21 people

  18. Sandra-VA says:

    Here is a live cam from Pelican Pete’s which I believe is Fort Meyers area.

    Liked by 3 people

  19. Daniel says:

    To see the ocean level change so dramatically because of a storm is … humbling. It’s the best word I can put to it because “amazing and awesome” are too often considered to be positive and exciting.

    When the sea level decreases, it’s because the water being pulled into the air is absolutely enormous. And that water never stats in the air! It drops somewhere. Mostly back into the ocean, but when it gets dumped onto the land it’s devastating. There is nothing man can do which can compare. We simply cannot do that. It’s humbling.

    I’ve watched/heard news on this and there are things I didn’t know — apparently there are buildings built under code which can withstand this stuff. That too is amazing. And now that I think about it, I have never heard of a high-rise building fall because of a hurricane. I’ve heard of windows shattering and all that, of course, but never actually falling. So why not evacuation to a high-rise building? I’m sort of joking… sort of.

    Among the news stories, one commentator was talking about his friend who survived Tropical Storm Sandy apparently said “to heck with this! I’m moving to Florida!” Really???

    Here’s what I think. I think, as long as people CHOOSE to live in such areas then their taxes should go to fund the kind of massive scale defenses against the weather which are very well known to occur there. Apparently, the hurricane rated building code structures are very effective. Great! Build more of them!

    And for that matter, why not sell leases for parking garages? Who wouldn’t want to do that? I know I would. A hurricane rated parking facility out there somewhere? I could save my car and a lot of my valuables within?! That rocks. Heck, this probably exists already and no one mentions it.

    Also, people where I work have been paying far too much attention to this hurricane. We’re too far inland to be seriously affected. But the news kept presenting the cone of uncertainty and for a while, we were right in the center of it. But when I remind them “there’s no such thing as a category 6 hurricane” or state “it’s too early to tell” they just give me a lot of hate as if they want this to happen somehow. And that “I told you so” in me sort of wants to hear their disappointment with the fact that it moved (to punish people who are now even more unprepared for the massive rainfall headed their way!!) off to the side somewhere. Hearing disappointment in their tone as they say they were glad we didn’t get hit? Just so special.

    Hurricanes are deadly serious. Why don’t we spend the money to defend against it? I know I would. I know I do! My wife told me water in stores has disappeared from the shelves. I responded “so?!” We already keep 5+ gallons of distilled water on hand at all times. We have canned food rotating in and out so they don’t go bad and so that we can donate them in charitable drives and do that we can use them in an emergency. Where and when I grew up, this was all normal. I don’t know when then changed because I only live in my home and wherever I go, this is what I do. So when I see store shelves being emptied and people freaking out I seem to lack sympathy.

    I’m very sympathetic to people who didn’t know it was coming. And I’m even more sympathetic to people who can’t leave for some reason. But failure to account for the location and to not be prepared? And the fact that it happens every single time with such predictability?? It’s like watching people cross the street against and getting hit by cars because they disregarded the situation.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Sharon says:

      Those who lack understanding or judgment would have their own reason (poor or good) and context (their own fault or not) for being at that place, just as you have your own reason and context for complete lack of empathy and appropriate timing.

      Liked by 4 people

    • redtreesquirrel says:

      Where are the safe inland parts of Florida? Serious question. I live in NC and have no idea.

      Liked by 1 person

    • TheLastDemocrat says:

      Daniel: try the decaf. (smiley)

      Liked by 1 person

    • Beenthere says:

      Don’t forget FL has a lot of transplants from the North & elsewhere who have never been in the full force of Cat 3 or better hurricane. Wasn’t Hurricane Sandy a Cat 1 when it got to NY-NJ-CT region? And then to top it off those transplants moving down to FL I am sure some of them were sold a “song & a dance” from Fast Eddie real estate developers. And these developers probably destroyed natural water barriers to build more homes.

      (I despise real estate developers. I see the trash they build after tearing down strong old historic-qualified homes & 50+ years old huge healthy trees.)

      BTW is Jeb Bush a Floridian real estate developer?

      Liked by 1 person

      • Daniel says:

        Sure is a lot of speculative thinking with all that “probably.”

        http://www.climatecentral.org/news/nws-confirms-sandy-was-not-a-hurricane-at-landfall-15589

        You could have googled it before committing the message.

        Yes, it was downgraded to a tropical storm before it hit. Memory does not serve you well and neither does your speculative thinking.

        The ongoing sale of Florida real-estate has been going on for as long as I’ve been alive at least. It’s why it’s always sold as a retirement community in a tropical paradise. I meet a LOT of former native Floridians who leave because of the natural disasters among other reasons but the common thread is it’s not the place they thought it would be and that the benefits do not outweigh the risks.

        Like

    • v4ni11ista says:

      Where in the USA are people totally safe from natural disasters? We had a ‘once in a hundred years’ flood on Windward Oahu in ’06. Evacuated for several tsunami warnings, other years

      Like

      • Daniel says:

        Kind of nowhere. The area north of central Oklahoma, south the the Yellowstone caldera, west of the Carolinas and east of the areas known for earthquakes. But the Yellowstone caldera pretty much disqualifies the rest of any otherwise excluded “safe” areas. Been watching that elevation rise for quite some time over the decades. “It’s due.”

        It’s partly about awareness and it’s partly about acceptance — Survival. It’s also partly about luck to some degree once a person has mitigated all known factors.

        I’m reminded of those people who buy extremely expensive houses on cliffs overlooking some amazing views. Turns out, quite often, these views from cliffs are because there was once ground blocking those views which have fallen or washed away for some reason.

        Insurance companies stay in business because they are keenly aware of the risks and charge rates which are appropriate for that risk.

        When I was a kid, I took seriously the “have an escape plan” warnings about fires.

        And being aware of dangers is not only a personal responsibility, but a parental one as well.

        Again, I’m very sympathetic when we don’t have warnings ahead of time. I’m not sympathetic to those who gamble with their lives and the lives of their children.

        Like

    • Will Janoschka says:

      “When the sea level decreases, it’s because the water being pulled into the air is absolutely enormous. And that water never stats in the air! It drops somewhere. Mostly back into the ocean, but when it gets dumped onto the land it’s devastating. There is nothing man can do which can compare. We simply cannothe atmosphere is moer denset do that. It’s humbling”
      Indeed! The most outrageous part are the academic meteorologists, not the weather service, attempting to computer model such using fake past measurements to predict the details of what has not before happened!
      These are the >ignorant meteorological academic;that ignore all obvious for political reasons. Such have no training\experience in fluid dynamics nor solid geometry! They assume the world is flat; rather than a rotating, asymmetrically illuminated sphere with a compressible fluid surround, held in place only by gravitational compression of that atmosphere.
      In the case of hurricane the local atmosphere is less compressible and way,way more dense because of the huge amount of airborne liquid water, not water vapor (the gas phase) this dense water is held aloft by hurricane rotational wind with huge angular momentum\power all borrowed from Earth’s rotational inertia. GREEN ENERGY 🙂

      Like

  20. Joe Knuckles says:

    If Marco Island is eroded to half it’s current size, will it be renamed “Little Marco”?

    Liked by 18 people

    • Bob Thoms says:

      It already exists…..really. But maybe now it will called…..”Really Little Marco”………..

      Liked by 2 people

    • quintrillion says:

      Lol…he doesn’t even deserve the negative implication of recognition…(need more water Marco?)

      Liked by 2 people

    • Grandma Covfefe says:

      Joe Knuckle,
      Humerous Quote of the Day.

      Hubbie laughed so hard that when he texted his brother to tell him of your comment,his text didn’t work then realized he was texting on our TV remote Control! I’m never letting him forget that he can be a doofus at times. Lol.

      On, serious note to everyone–we are praying…Our hearts are with you all–we love you.
      Thank you all for all the recent postings, scriptures, prayers, encouragements–many have said things we would have. Many beat me to scriptures and encouragements I would have said. Thank you all for speaking for the thousands of us. Amazing we Treepers are much more alike than we thought. We are unified under One God no matter where we came from. We love you all. Stay Safe.

      Treepers Strong >>>Florida Strong >>>Texas Strong >>> America Strong

      Liked by 14 people

  21. aqua says:

    Here is the link to Duke Energy. There are no active power problems in Pinellas County now, but this may be useful tonight if you have relatives in their service area (I know they have Pinellas County (Clearwater, Dunedin, Palm Harbor, Largo, etc).
    https://www.duke-energy.com/outages

    Click on the link, then see outages. You can blow up the map to literally see streets and service areas. Tampaelectric.com has a similar outage map.
    Very useful. I check it all the time when they have storms down there.

    Thank you, Sundance and everyone here for posting useful and factual information. Latest news of ten minutes ago from Clearwater is that all is fine. Some rain starting, but that’s it.

    Wishing everyone the best.

    Liked by 6 people

  22. Sandra-VA says:

    Here is a list of live webcams all in one place. Scroll down for the list:

    http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/09/watch_irma_florida_web_cams.html

    Like

  23. Paul Killinger says:

    In some coastal communities Katrina carried as much as 15 feet of water above mean tides ashore this way.

    Like

  24. Bob Thoms says:

    Weather clearing to the south, we should be getting status reports from the Keys shortly?

    Like

  25. Howie says:

    Dang, went west of cape sable….look out Tampa…eye might be on MacDill AFB at dawn followed by 20 foot tidal wave. Tampa Mayor should be staked out on Ballast Point Pier.

    Like

  26. Liked by 1 person

  27. oldschool64 says:

    The stupidity of this fat pig is breathtaking!

    This is where this genius wants to put people IN THE MIDDLE OF A HURRICANE!!

    In case you didn’t know, that body about 400 ft from the front door of Mara-a-lago is called THE ATLANTIC OCEAN!

    Liked by 3 people

  28. webgirlpdx says:

    His daily consumption of food could feed an entire shelter.

    Liked by 1 person

  29. Howie says:

    Eye on dry ground….Down Simba Dowb!!!

    Liked by 1 person

  30. guitar107 says:

    Downgraded to Cat2 near Ft Myers. Should be Cat1 by time it reaches my peeps in WCentral FL.

    Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 47
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
    500 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 10/2100Z 26.2N 81.8W 95 KT 110 MPH…INLAND
    12H 11/0600Z 28.0N 82.5W 75 KT 85 MPH…INLAND
    24H 11/1800Z 30.7N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND

    Liked by 1 person

  31. Will Janoschka says:

    Try “https://youtu.be/PHXkhUJWTXM”, to see the outrageous media scam, in this tragedy

    Like

  32. Rev.Bro. Generik Broderick says:

    Here’s a few things I have paid a price to learn;1. If water starts seeping under a door do not open to look! You will not be able to close it and will regret. .2. The brain is an energy hog! In the direst circumstances try to keep a cool head and you consume far less oxygen and calories. A mantra helps as does rote prayer. We are all gonna expire eventually. Never give up.

    Liked by 2 people

  33. Scott says:

    I’m quite impressed by that footage of Tampa Bay. Nary a speck of garbage to be found anywhere. I remember when I was in Panama City Panama and checked out the seawall. The Pacific had receded, revealing trash everywhere — bottles, cans, diapers, tires. It was astonishing to me that people lived this way and most importantly didn’t seem to care. This is what Tampa, LA and Oregon will look like if Trump doesn’t get tough on immigration.

    Like

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