FUBAR – Almost a Million More Hurricane Evacuations Ordered For West Coastal Florida…

Useful Link -> Florida Disaster Org <- Useful Link

Ground Report.  Many well prepared people are now facing a crisis of a severely dangerous storm surge warning.  CTH readers (Hi Ziiggii) will well note the Hurricane challenges specific to the West Coast and Southwest Gulf Coast community. These unique challenges that have not been tested in 50+ years – Well folks, this is it.  The 130 MPH on-shore winds are timed to arrive with the incoming tide overnight on Sunday into Monday morning.

Due to extreme demand gasoline has been in short supply for the area South and West of Lake-O (Okeechobee) for five days.  Approximately an hour ago, against the backdrop of the latest Hurricane Track -And Upward Projecting Storm Surge of 10 to 15 ft– South West FL officials just added almost a million people to the Mandatory Evacuation Area.  People who were safe last night, based on previous projections, are no longer safe even if well prepared.  Combine it all, and, well, FUBAR:

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Cape Sable to Captiva Island…10 to 15 ft
Captiva Island to Ana Maria Island…6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys…5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay… 5 to 8 ft

Let me be clear. It is impossible to hunker down near the coast in SWFL with 15′ of storm surge.  It is understandable the mandatory evacuations would be expanded.  Shelters are filling as fast as they can open. –Local News Link–  This is the largest mass movement of people in South Florida History.

This morning we’ve been transporting people with pets inland.  Desperate people.  Well prepared people.  Almost everyone was/is prepared for the 130+ MPH possible wind damage; but there’s no way to prepare for 15′ of water above ground level.

If these storm surge projections hold true, we are on the cusp of witnessing history.   These coastal areas, and some even miles inland, have never seen anything like this.  Florida Governor Rick Scott promises there will be enough shelters for the new influx of evacuees from the areas.  These are massive and widespread population centers all along the West coast of Florida.

My prayers for everyone.  Remain calm.

All of peninsula Florida is still expected to receive damaging hurricane-force winds. Nobody should let down their guard because of the storm’s interaction with the Cuban coast this morning. It is still a giant, tremendously dangerous storm of the type that peninsula Florida hadn’t seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960.

The forecast track for the worst of the storm is now squarely on the Lower Florida Keys and Florida’s extremely vulnerable west coast. Here’s what this means for the various parts of the state and surrounding states:

In South Florida from MIAMI TO THE PALM BEACHES, think Hurricane Wilma in terms of the wind. There will be an extended period from later today through tomorrow of strong, dangerous winds, but not the full-scale assault that would have happened if the eye had come closer.

In addition, however, flooding rainfall of a foot or more, plus rising sea water – storm surge of 5 feet or more in vulnerable low-lying locations – is still possible.

In the FLORIDA KEYS, it is a full-scale hurricane emergency. Key West is probably going to get its worst storm in modern history, and perhaps ever. Life-threatening weather conditions will overtake the Keys later today and peak tomorrow morning, although Florida Bay water will continue to rise after the center passes to the north. Ultimate hurricane protection is required for anyone remaining in the Keys. Be sure you have a solid high-elevation location to ride out the storm. The danger from rising water due to storm surge and rainfall, as well as wind, will be extreme.

In SOUTHWEST FLORIDA – the NAPLES-FT. MYERS-CAPE CORAL area, the potential exists for the worst hurricane in history. The core of Hurricane Irma, potentially with winds gusting over 150 mph or more, is going to come close. Buildings in Southwest Florida are not, in general, built to withstand these winds. As the peak winds approach the Gulf water will surge over the islands and the shoreline of the mainland, so it will be very difficult or impossible to move once the storm starts.

Once the eye goes by, the maximum surge – forecast to be 8 to 12 feet above the ground in low-lying areas – will move in from the Gulf. This is fast moving, destructive water. You cannot drive through it and you cannot stand in it. It will sweep buildings away. Storm surge is the deadliest hazard in a hurricane.

The water will surge miles inland in some areas – far up the Caloosahatchee River, for example – higher than you can imagine. It is critical that everyone makes it to high ground.

Ultimate hurricane protection is required in all of Southwest Florida. Be sure you are in an elevated location by tonight. Inside the house or building, prepare an interior hall, closet, or bathroom with as many walls between you and the outside of the building as possible. Have the food and supplies you need with you, so you don’t have to venture to other parts of the house or building during the peak of the storm.

Have mattresses handy as an extra layer of safety. Be ready to get under the mattress or use them to protect yourself from flying debris inside your house, if there is a breach of the outside wall or the roof.

Think about everything today. How are you going to entertain the kids? How are you going to take care of your pet? Take no chances. This is an extraordinarily dangerous situation.

Farther north on the WEST COAST OF FLORIDA – SARASOTA, TAMPA BAY, AND POINTS NORTH: The threat of deadly storm surge is real and increasing. It is essential that you get out of low-lying areas. Follow the local evacuation orders, which are still being issued.

On the current track, the wind will be fierce and damaging along the entire west coast. Review the steps listed above to stay safe if you are going to be near the eye of the storm, even well away from the water.

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694 Responses to FUBAR – Almost a Million More Hurricane Evacuations Ordered For West Coastal Florida…

  1. Pam says:


  2. Pam says:

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Just Scott says:

    AmWx TPAwx Location:Tampa, Florida Posted 16 minutes ago ·

    10-15 feet is no doubt major news and historic, and would be very damaging. Also first major to hit Tampa since 1921. And it could really do a number on Key West and places like Marco.

    But there are a lot of factually inaccurate worst case scenario and complete devastation claims being thrown around by the non met or SME posters without any reasoning. It’s just getting a bit repetitive and tiresome, especially for people with more skin in the game.

    The dichotomy: don’t let your guard down; nobody knows what Irma will actually do.
    OTOH don’t let your spirit down; it is not as bad as many false-sayers make it out to be.

    Liked by 4 people

  4. Just Scott says:

    Hope this works.

    Liked by 3 people

  5. Ace says:

    This hurricane is moving slower than a rider lawnmower

    Liked by 2 people

  6. Ace says:

    Now forecast to hit St. Petersburg…a little more west and it won’t hit anything.


  7. Ace says:

    The Marathon cam in the Keys has just lost transmission 😵

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Just Scott says:

    She’s strengthening. Some 160+mph at wall.
    Here is the Vaca Key Wx Sensor. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?id=8723970

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Juan says:

    I don’t think I would bet the farm on any of their projections. Here’s a reminder of what they projected on Thursday afternoon …

    Liked by 1 person

    • nobaddog says:

      There consistently wrong. They want sensationalism. It was obvious not going up the east coast when they were predicting a sharp right turn at 9 mph. Strong storms can’t turn like that. As of now its almost stopped. It can go any direction. Its west direction is over. The high pressure won out.

      Liked by 2 people

  10. Beverly says:

    I’m with Wheatietoo: Irma is going WEST. I saw the latest Nat. Hurr. Center graphic after midnight: NOW they have the eye of the storm going over Key West, which is west of the Florida mainland; they’re still showing it hugging the coast after that, but I don’t think it will go right up it, I have a feeling it will be more out to sea (or out to Gulf, if you will). They’ll still probably get hurricane-force winds onshore and a storm surge, but….

    Another thing: the “toe” of Florida, the western 2/3, anyway, is the uninhabited Everglades. The worst storm surges they’re showing on the map are almost entirely projected to hit the Everglades, which will bug the alligators but bother very few humans.

    A bit further up is Naples and Sanibel, which might get pasted, but. . . I think she’s going to wobble out west more, and not end up being the catastrophic hurricane the Weatherboys are dreaming of.

    This is a bit OT, but it’s the funniest weather report I’ve ever seen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7F1AhnWAhHc

    Liked by 2 people

    • wheatietoo says:

      It certainly seems determined to go West, doesn’t it.

      Right now, it’s like a wind-up toy that is bumping up against a wall.
      It is strengthening too.
      So there is really no telling what will happen…it might win out and punch through that wall it is bumping up against.

      I hope it does.
      I hope Irma just goes out into the Gulf and spins itself out.

      Liked by 2 people

  11. JohnP says:

    Irma Location:
    2:00 am Eastern
    Lat Lon
    23.7 81.3

    3:00am Eastern
    Lat Lon
    23.9 81.3

    It could be the beginning of the turn to north.


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