President Donald Trump has announced Dr. Neil Gorsuch as nominee for the Supreme Court. Here is the video of the announcement and Judge Gorsuch acceptance remarks.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will not filibuster the nomination.
Relax, it’s 100%. 100%. Done.
Judge Gorsuch will take the bench with the customary vocal goofball moonbattery of the far-left, perhaps with some Trump Derangement Syndrome sprinkled on top, but he will take the bench.
Senator Schumer’s only play is to delay the confirmation process because he doesn’t want Gorsuch on this year’s SCOTUS rulings, which by itself is doubtful if McConnell finds his balls, but Schumer will NOT block the overall nomination. Here’s why.
Not taking anything away from Dr. Gorsuch because his credentials are impeccable and he’s already sailed through confirmation previously. However there are other factors.
CONTEXT – First, four justices on SCOTUS have already openly expressed their frustration with a broken legislative branch of government. In the past two years almost every case in front of the Supreme Count has traveled there as an outcome of congressional inability to construct clarity bi-partisan legislation.
President Obama and Harry Reid created the lack of bipartisanship in legislation. Only the Obama appointees and Ginsburg have bitten their proverbial lip on the issue. Everyone knows this simple truism.
The court is currently 4-4 with one missing.
Justice Kennedy is 80 years old and has openly stated he wants to retire. Kennedy views Gorsuch, his former clerk and protege’ as his replacement. Justice Kennedy sees Judge Gorsuch through a mirrored perspective.
With Gorsuch ideologically filling his legacy gap, it is reasonable to see Kennedy stepping down after the SCOTUS season this year. Most likely using the period of July/August 2017 recess for the term of replacement.
Justice Kennedy’s exit then provides President Trump with nominee #2.
Senator Schumer is not stupid. He knows this.
SCHUMER’S CARDS – If Schumer filibusters Judge Gorsuch now, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will, most likely, use the nuclear option and point to Senator Schumer as the reason therein. That means Gorsuch on the bench having needed only 51 votes.
McConnell points to Schumers intransigence and also points to the former confirmation of Gorsuch, against the backdrop of the Judges impeccable character and credentials etc.
Deployment of the nuclear option means, more consequentially, when Justice Kennedy announces his retirement, ANY replacement – including a much, much more conservative replacement like Pryor – is a guaranteed seat only needing 51 votes.
Think about it. The court would then lean even further to the right, and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 2017, (now 84-years-old), clinging to a respirator in year one of President Trump’s tenure.
SEAT #3 – Can Ginsburg make it to 2020? Doubtful. To 2024? Almost impossible.
Senator Schumer’s best play is to push the envelope, but allow appointee #1 (Gorsuch) to gain his seat through the traditional Senate confirmation processes. This means Schumer still has the ability to influence seat #2 toward moderation, and politically doesn’t have to worry about a 51 vote confirmation threshold in the fall for #2.
Chuck Schumer keeps his powder dry, and ability to influence, for nominee #2. Mitch McConnell, having used and upheld the customs, tradition and legacy of the Senate in appointee #1 – would not be able to use the nuclear option on #2.
- If Schumer pushes too far now, the 51 vote threshold applies to Gorsuch and any #2 nominee.
- If Schumer allows confirmation of Gorsuch, both #1 and #2 (any any additional nominees) to go through the 60 vote need.
That’s why Schumer will not filibuster Gorsuch.
Everything from now until Judge Gorsuch confirmation is just political optics, narrative selling, fake-protestations and smoke and mirrors. The actual confirmation itself is a guarantee.
…“and we will win, and you will win, and we will keep on winning, and eventually you will say we can’t take all of this winning, …please Mr. Trump …and I will say, NO, we will win, and we will keep on winning”…
~ Donald Trump
…”Sorry to keep you waiting. Complicated business folks, complicated business”…