Four days ago there was a .01% difference in early ballot and vote data favoring candidate Donald Trump; the data was essentially tied. With each update Trump inched a little further and further ahead.
Trump campaigned in Las Vegas on Sunday. Today’s update provided by FLEPOREBLOG reflects an optimistic trend as the data continues to increase.
As of October 31st: 2,149 more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail-in-Ballot. (+4.8% ballot lead same from prior day +4.8%)
♦ Rep: 19,006 (same from 10/30)
♦ DEM: 16,857 (same from 10/30)
Other (Independents): 8,620 (same from 10/30)
Total Returned: 44,483 (same from 10/30)
#Trump (Rep): 42.7% (same from 10/30)
#HRC (Dem): 37.9% (same from 10/30)
Other (Independents): 19.4% (same from 10/30)
Here is what Early Mail-in-Ballots looked like in 2012 at the same time (Week 1 for 2016 is now done)
Voted-by-Mail (Returned/Week #1 2012)
♦ Rep: 23,491
♦ DEM: 22,956
Other (Independents): 8,613
Total Returned: 55,060
Other (Independents): 15.6%
In 2012 535 more registered Republicans returned their Early Mail-in-Ballot compared to Democrats in Week 1 of the presidential election. In 2016 republicans lead Democrats by 1,614 more early mail-in-ballots.
EARLY VOTING: 30,180 more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of 10/30
Early Voting (Only)
♦ Rep: 120,304 (same from 10/30)
♦ DEM: 150,484 (same from 10/30)
Other (Independents): 66,272 (same from 10/30)
Total Voted: 337,059 (same from 10/30)
#Trump(Rep): 35.7% (same from 10/30)
#HRC(Dem): 44.7% (same from 10/30)
Other (Independents): 19.7% (same from 10/30)
COMPARING TO 2012 – Here is what Early Voting looked like in 2012 at the same time:
Early Voting (Week One Only)
♦ Rep: 110,094
♦ DEM: 139,281
Other (Independents): 53,610
Total Voted: 302,985
Other (Independents): 17.7%
29,187 more registered Democrats voted early compared to Republicans in Week 1 of the 2012 Presidential Election. When comparing 2016 to 2012 (Week 1 Only), Democrats are up by 1,039 more early votes than 2012.
The lead for Democrats was 9.7% when looking at their percentage of early votes compared to the Republicans from 2012. When comparing 2016’s percent change (Week 1 Only), Democrats are down by 0.7% less early votes than 2012. You can track this daily at the following link –SEE HERE–
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting historically, that assumption is used.
The good news is that in Axiom’s poll released today (taken 10/30), 74% of Democrats are voting for HRC while 81% of Republicans are voting for Trump. 14% of Republicans are voting for HRC while 21% of Democrats are voting for Trump.
Also, No Party Affiliation (Independents) have been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent poll on 10/30, Trump has 44% of Independents while HRC only has 37% of Independents. If we take Axiom poll’s data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as following in the votes mailed and early voted so far:
R: 112,841 (R voting for Trump) + 35,142 (D voting for Trump) + 32,952 (I voting for Trump) = 180,935 Total Votes
D: 123,832 (D voting for HRC) +19,503 (R voting for HRC) + 27,710 (I voting for HRC) = 171,045 Total Votes
Total Votes for either candidate – 351,980
Total Votes for ALL candidates: 381,542
Trump = 47.4%
Clinton = 44.8%
Note: For the first time my %s above will not equal 100% because I am taking into account the following factors (LINK):
Gary Johnson = R: 4% D: 2% I: 8%
Someone else = R: 0% D: 1% I: 3%
Undecided = R: 1% D: 1% I: 7%
SUMMARY: Nevada is starting to look good for Trump! After one week of early voting in person or by mail, coupled with Axiom’s recent poll margins, the data would seem to indicate a close race. However – we are now up by 2.6 points.