Updated Early Vote/Ballot Data From Nevada Looking Better For Donald Trump…

Four days ago there was a .01% difference in early ballot and vote data favoring candidate Donald Trump; the data was essentially tied.  With each update Trump inched a little further and further ahead.

trump-rally-main-1

Trump campaigned in Las Vegas on Sunday.   Today’s update provided by FLEPOREBLOG reflects an optimistic trend as the data continues to increase.

update-1Updated: Latest Nevada Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting which started on 10/22

As of October 31st:  2,149 more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail-in-Ballot.  (+4.8% ballot lead same from prior day +4.8%)

Voted-by-Mail (Returned)

♦  Rep: 19,006 (same from 10/30)
♦  DEM: 16,857 (same from 10/30)
Other (Independents): 8,620 (same from 10/30)
Total Returned: 44,483 (same from 10/30)

#Trump (Rep): 42.7% (same from 10/30)
#HRC (Dem): 37.9% (same from 10/30)
Other (Independents): 19.4% (same from 10/30)

Here is what Early Mail-in-Ballots looked like in 2012 at the same time (Week 1 for 2016 is now done)

Voted-by-Mail (Returned/Week #1 2012)

♦ Rep: 23,491
♦ DEM: 22,956
Other (Independents): 8,613
Total Returned: 55,060

#(Rep): 42.7%
#(Dem): 41.7%
Other (Independents): 15.6%

In 2012 535 more registered Republicans returned their Early Mail-in-Ballot compared to Democrats in Week 1 of the presidential election.  In 2016 republicans lead Democrats by 1,614 more early mail-in-ballots.

EARLY VOTING:  30,180 more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of 10/30

Early Voting (Only)

♦ Rep: 120,304 (same from 10/30)
♦ DEM: 150,484 (same from 10/30)
Other (Independents): 66,272 (same from 10/30)
Total Voted: 337,059 (same from 10/30)

#Trump(Rep): 35.7% (same from 10/30)
#HRC(Dem): 44.7% (same from 10/30)
Other (Independents): 19.7% (same from 10/30)

COMPARING TO 2012 – Here is what Early Voting looked like in 2012 at the same time:

Early Voting (Week One Only)

♦ Rep: 110,094
♦ DEM: 139,281
Other (Independents): 53,610
Total Voted: 302,985

#Trump(Rep): 36.3%
#HRC(Dem): 46.0%
Other (Independents): 17.7%

29,187 more registered Democrats voted early compared to Republicans in Week 1 of the 2012 Presidential Election. When comparing 2016 to 2012 (Week 1 Only), Democrats are up by 1,039 more early votes than 2012.

The lead for Democrats was 9.7% when looking at their percentage of early votes compared to the Republicans from 2012. When comparing 2016’s percent change (Week 1 Only), Democrats are down by 0.7% less early votes than 2012.  You can track this daily at the following link –SEE HERE

Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting historically, that assumption is used.

The good news is that in Axiom’s poll released today (taken 10/30), 74% of Democrats are voting for HRC while 81% of Republicans are voting for Trump. 14% of Republicans are voting for HRC while 21% of Democrats are voting for Trump.

Also, No Party Affiliation (Independents) have been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent poll on 10/30, Trump has 44% of Independents while HRC only has 37% of Independents. If we take Axiom poll’s data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as following in the votes mailed and early voted so far:

R: 112,841 (R voting for Trump) + 35,142 (D voting for Trump) + 32,952 (I voting for Trump) = 180,935 Total Votes

D: 123,832 (D voting for HRC) +19,503 (R voting for HRC) + 27,710 (I voting for HRC) = 171,045 Total Votes

Total Votes for either candidate – 351,980

Total Votes for ALL candidates: 381,542

Trump = 47.4%
Clinton = 44.8%

Note: For the first time my %s above will not equal 100% because I am taking into account the following factors  (LINK):

Gary Johnson =  R: 4% D: 2% I: 8%
Someone else =  R: 0% D: 1% I: 3%
Undecided =  R: 1% D: 1% I: 7%

SUMMARY:  Nevada is starting to look good for Trump! After one week of early voting in person or by mail, coupled with Axiom’s recent poll margins, the data would seem to indicate a close race.  However – we are now up by 2.6 points.

Trump thumbs up

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105 Responses to Updated Early Vote/Ballot Data From Nevada Looking Better For Donald Trump…

  1. smartyjones1 says:

    Thanks for your superb analysis and timely and pointed (as usual) data.
    You’ve been so on target it’s crazy good Sundance. Being that Nevada is very much of interest as is neighboring Colorado, this is some great insight with precursors of trends.

    Wondering if New Hampshire may play a big role or turn out to be a bellwether as some believe.

    Liked by 7 people

    • Sa_Bi says:

      This is pure anti-Trump rhetoric, and anti-American as well.

      Trump now leads in NH even in the hoax polls and has a lot of support there. He’s tied with Hillary in CO in the fraud polls too, and will win both states, especially given that the best days of her campaign are behind her. He’ll defeat her in both states based on turnout alone – a turnout you apparently want to suppress.

      Pack up your stereotypes and leave.

      Like

      • Joe says:

        It isn’t stereotypes so much as nothing how certain demographics tend to vote. Although I agree that we should not give up on any state.

        Like

    • Matt Musson says:

      Gee, the MSM issue blanket statements about Hillary being way ahead in Nevada. But, they never include any real numbers. I wonder why?

      Like

    • Ignore the “blanket statements” from the corrupt media promoting Killary

      Like

  2. FeralCat says:

    ” With each update Trump inched a little further and further ahead.”

    Begin at the beginning and go on till you come to the end: then stop.
    – Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

    Liked by 2 people

  3. regedit says:

    …meanwhile retard John Kasich voted for Mcain(write in) in OH
    //im sure a lot of you have heard about it

    Like

  4. myrightpenguin says:

    Jonathan Ralston is indicating different. Any idea why Sundance? I know he can be a bit of a hack at times.
    http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

    Like

    • regedit says:

      Ralston has 450 K total votes-our FLEPOREBLOG has about 380K total votes…

      Liked by 1 person

      • myrightpenguin says:

        Thank you for the response and information. I’m a novice at this stuff compared to most here.

        Like

        • Justin says:

          I thought this was an interesting comment, so I had to respond. Sundance’s conclusion is based on an axiom poll that came out 10/30. This broke down the percentages of each affiliation’s presumed votes. Yes, Ralston had more early vote numbers that shows party affiliation of early voters. It was; 33% of early voting has been Republican, 39% has been Democrat, and 28% has been Independent. This is half of the information Sundance offered. IF Axiom breakdown is correct and using Ralston’s percentages of voters, DT=47.24% of all votes, HRC=43.84% of all votes, and Independent parties will take 8.92% of all votes. Showing Trump up 3.4%, a bigger margin than Sundance has. But all of this is hypothetical until election day.

          Liked by 1 person

    • Cardinals82 says:

      The guy is a joke. Doesn’t say where he gets his numbers from, thinks all Ds are voting for Shillery and obviously hayes Trump.

      Answered your own question when you called him a hack.

      Florb gets his numbers directly from the state elections site. This guy probably uses online random number generators…

      Liked by 2 people

    • ajbenius says:

      FLEPOREBLOG’s data is slightly out of date since he’s using week 1 data only. Week 2 data is already up and there is a cumulative total of 471,603 votes. Ralston’s data is more up to date.
      http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543
      http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555

      Liked by 2 people

      • Cardinals82 says:

        If we go by week 2, so far Reps are winning in both early voting and mail in returns. Also a boat load of independents have voted. Trump has indeps firmly in his camp.

        If we just assume voted along party lines from week 1 and week 2, than Trump is still winning. But as we know, some republicans arent voting Trump yet a larger amount of dems arent voting Hillary. Trump is still winning in that case as well.

        Long story short, Raleaton is still a hack and has no clue how to properly analyze data.

        Liked by 7 people

        • ajbenius says:

          We do have a slight lead in mail-in ballots for week 2, but the Dems are beating us with early votes. However, not all counties have been accounted for yet for Monday voting.

          So yeah, I think Ralston is being a bit dishonest here. Hillary got a big bump on Sunday because early voting is closed in every county except for heavily-blue Clark County and leaning-blue Washoe County.

          That also explains why our lead in FL dropped over the weekend- it’s because certain counties (probably the red ones) do not have early voting on Sunday, but counties like Miami-Dade do.

          Liked by 3 people

    • blognificentbee says:

      As an ex-Nevadan, I can tell you that Ralston is as liberal as liberal gets. He is/used to be a big fish in a small pond of Nevada political reporters, so he has an air of respect from others. However, is a known entity, always being in the bag for Reid and his local ilk. Please do not believe a word of what he says.

      Liked by 1 person

  5. chojun says:

    It makes me wonder why Nevada is showing lower turnout in 2016 than 2012?

    Part of me wonders if the West will actually experience lower turnout this election.

    Like

  6. Sentient says:

    Romney states + FL, OH and IA = 259. Need 10 more. NV would be 6 of those 10.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Sa_Bi says:

      CO: 9
      PA: 20
      WI: 10
      MI: 16
      NM: 5
      MN: 10

      Liked by 1 person

    • joninmd22 says:

      11 points. Watch Michigan which needs to flip red.

      Like

    • bdc5551 says:

      Most likely path in my opinion: the states you mentioned + New Hampshire + Colorado. New Hampshire and Colorado, unlike the lake states, have gone red in 21st century.

      Like

      • EJ says:

        Based on Micheal Moore’s rant, I can see MI going red. Union people vote the way they do to protect their jobs. Right now, there is no union in MI keeping the auto industry from bailing on them. The state also understands how liberal policies turned the Motor City into Beirut. Many of college educated liberals come to Chicago for jobs. The one negative is that farming up there relies on migrant workers. It could be close.

        Like

        • bdc5551 says:

          He’ll do better than past Republicans, but I just can’t see a win. Regardless, if he were to win Michigan, it would an electoral college landslide. He would win PA, WI, and NH too, as they are similar states.

          Like

  7. Andrew E. says:

    Otis, don’t come to the Treehouse to drop your black pills. That may play at Lion’s, not here though.

    Like

  8. Old CrewDog says:

    11 more. and then a margin of safety. If it ain’t close they can’t cheat. They are VERY good at cheating.

    Liked by 4 people

  9. FeralCat says:

    The voting numbers coming in from Nevada are hard numbers whereas the Axiom’s poll is only “finger in the wind”. Multiplying the two together is rather iffy. It is like measuring a rectangular property on one side with a tape and pacing the other side off and multiplying the two together to get the sq ft.

    Liked by 5 people

  10. This is great news and analysis, however the analysis is dependent on the results of Axioms polls (which could be pro GOP biased).

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Steve Hartman says:

    I’ve read many of Otis the Sweaty’s posts. No question a Hillbot troll. Pay no attention to this clown. On every Sundance early vote posts, no matter what state it is in, this same jackass sounds off on how Trump can’t win, blah, blah, blah……

    Like

  12. Yadent says:

    If Trump keeps it close in Clark County, we in the rest of the state will bring it home for him.

    Like

  13. I suspect the Dems are front-facing their voters and it will only get worse for them going forward.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Front-loading that is.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Joe says:

        That mean cannibalizing votes from November 8th? Awesome, it won’t even be close.

        Like

      • chojun says:

        I think the same exact thing. Election day voting is more of an enthusiasm thing. Early voting is more of a party machinery thing.

        That’s why early voting strongly favors the Democrats, and why they so vociferously fight for access to it. I think election day will be a complete Trump blowout across the board, but in the future the Republican party has GOT to do something about the GOTV advantage by Democrats.

        Either you pass a Constitutional amendment banning it or you set up machinery of your own. Beats me why the GOP just don’t understand that the entire Democrat apparatus is geared toward not just electoral defeat but the complete eradication of GOP as a major party.

        Liked by 1 person

        • I think you nailed it perfectly – machine v. enthusiasm. I cannot see how ANY intelligent person (and yet I know a few) could possibly vote for Hilary, much less be enthusiastic about it. Maybe our long lines on E.D. (the new V.D. for America, I think) will tamp any enthusiasm they manage to muster and they’ll turn around and go home.

          We know that the deplorables of this soon to be great again nation are fired up and have enthusiasm in spades. Many of us are waiting for E.D. to cast our vote and the long primary lines are a preview of what to expect come November 8th.

          TRUMP 2016 – MAGA!!

          Liked by 1 person

          • bdc5551 says:

            Intelligent people could vote for Hillary. It’s just that they are selfish and don’t care about anyone but themselves. That’s how the Democrats have operated for 100 years:

            Like

    • troposphr says:

      Yup, I canvassed in Reno over the weekend and word is that Trump will kill it on Election Day. Not sure how they determined this, but that’s what I was told.
      When I door knocked, I would say 10-20% pro-Trump households were planning to vote on Election Day, not early.

      Apparently in NV you can only get a paper ballot on Election Day. Early voting is electronic-only.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Right now, the casinos have shuttle buses taking all of the democrat, union, hispanic workers to the polls. The rest of us just have to get there by ourselves.

      Liked by 1 person

  14. ajbenius says:

    Can anyone here explain how the heck the GOP lead in early votes/mail-in votes in Florida went from a 25K lead to only a 8K lead? What happened?

    Like

    • Cardinals82 says:

      Not even close to what Fleporeblog or Sundance has posted in an earlier thread updated as of 10/31…its a 64k lead not 25k and it hasnt gone down to 8k…also dems in FL have had the lead in early voting since it began yet the lead shrinks everyday.

      Liked by 1 person

      • ajbenius says:

        I’m talking about the pure vote-by-mail plus early voting numbers.

        Right now, the GOP has 825,918 mail-in votes and 684,100 early votes in. The Democrats have 761,818 mail-in votes and 739,306. Do the math and you have the GOP with a slim lead of 8894. Of course independents will go for Trump so I think Trump will still win Florida, but nonetheless I’m surprised the GOP lead went down by so much in just a day!

        Like

        • chojun says:

          Like I said above early voting is a Democrat political machine tool. If it weren’t for early voting the Democrat party would’ve been wiped out decades ago.

          The real fireworks occur on election day. Trump will absolutely destroy on election day. When people think of voting they think Nov 8, not early voting. The trick is, how much of a deficit does the GOP candidate have to overcome in order to win?

          This election, it seems that GOP early voting is in lock-step with Dem early voting, which, unless I’m mistaken, is mostly unheard of.

          So Nov 8 is when we’ll see the monster vote surface.

          I’ve been telling people to just go vote early if you can. You already know who you’re voting for at this point (most people). I worry about lines being so outrageously long on 11/8 that some people won’t get to vote. I’m going to vote early in case the mom or dad, who has an hour to spare between jobs, can have a spot in line to vote for Trump. We need every last vote this election.

          Liked by 3 people

        • trumptea says:

          The heavily blue part of the state (Date County) allows for Sunday voting while the more red parts of the state do not allow for Sunday voting.

          It will even out … or go back up by weeks end.

          Liked by 1 person

    • Joe says:

      Possibly a bunch of college students were bussed to polling stations that day(legal version). Same thing happened in North Carolina, making a big jump. However, college students, while registered mainly Democrat, may not necessarily be voting for Hillary after learning how Bernie was cheated. They may go green, if not Trump.

      Like

  15. Trumped says:

    Meanwhile SW Miami Florida:

    El Patron Trump!

    Trump is winning bigly in FL.
    I hope wednesday and Thursday are his last Florida events until the 8th.
    Rather visit CO and NV or NC, OO or even NH, NJ or Michigan again.

    Liked by 7 people

    • darcy says:

      PA? I so hope he wins PA.

      Liked by 1 person

      • doit4atlas says:

        PA puts him over the top. He’s winning bigly in my home county, bellweather Luzerne County in northeastern PA. This will be the key that unlocks the door. Along with Bucks County where he had a rally a couple weeks ago. If these two counties go Trump, so goes PA!

        Liked by 1 person

        • Ole'CrewDog says:

          Trump AND Pence are in Montgomery County PA, five miles from here (I’m at work) NOW – as we speak. Montco has been getting bluer and bluer in the last ten years (Grrrrrr….). Bucks was also known as a Red haven, but has been slipping. Lots of influence from Philadelphia just to the south (of Bucks) and South East (of Montco.)

          Liked by 1 person

  16. remuda2016 says:

    Mike Pence called Mark Levin and was steady on. He’s great! Pence, that is…

    Liked by 2 people

    • AndrewJackson says:

      I will hold analytical judgement. Before applying poll percentages Nevada looks only marginally better than 2012. Problem is that we have to make back 7% which is about the margin of victory in 2012 for Obama. Hopefully, the monster vote shows up and proves the axiom poll right. I personally think trump should do another round of carpet bombing in PA, NH, and CO as NC, OH, and FL are locked in for Trump at this point..

      Liked by 3 people

      • ALEX says:

        That’s the whole ballgame. Turnout. We will see how the Hispanic vote materializes. It could be negated by crossover. Will see…

        Like

        • chojun says:

          The monster vote is by definition a turnout mechanism motivated by enthusiasm for Trump. There is absolutely no doubt that Trump has more enthusiasm on his side, and this by a LOT.

          Trump will win election day voting – the question is, how much turnout can the dems get before then in early voting?

          Like

      • Fake Nametag says:

        I live here in NV and I’m trying to get everyone I know out to vote, and telling them to get everyone they know to vote. I think it is going to be close here and I won’t feel good until the election is over. I thought we were getting rid of Harry Reid a few years back and he won comfortably. NV is a tricky state.

        Liked by 2 people

      • troposphr says:

        Maybe with the Sheldon Adelson money, Trump can run pro-2A ads in NV. That would surely help? IDK. OTOH, maybe he already has the 2A vote locked up in NV.

        Like

      • trumptea says:

        Agree … Go back to NV, CO, PA, and NH … also like to see him go back to MI as I think it is closer than people think.

        Like

        • EJ says:

          I got flamed in the other thread about saying he has too many stops in FL. He is there everyday and all day Wednesday. I think he should also MI and WI now, he may have a chance there. Based on recent events, VA could be a real possibility as well.

          Like

          • MfM says:

            I explained in the other thread why the Trump campaign may think FL is important.

            Another thing I just thought of, Florida has a lot of retired people who can go to rallies mid-day and mid-week. A lot of people elsewhere work and it’s hard to take time off.

            I’ve said before, I bet a couple of large rallies are in the planning for this weekend. Romney had one in PA that drew 30,000 the week before the election. It was an outdoor event, if Trump does one outside, I hope the weather is good because it was cold that evening.

            Trump was in MI over the weekend and is heading to Eau Claire WI for a rally this afternoon before heading to Florida. and NC.

            Like

  17. Cardinals82 says:

    Worry trolls out in force tonight. Says all we need to know about this election. I expect to see their kind multiply by this weekend here.

    Carry on.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN NEVADA… 110% … WORRY ABOUT OTHER STATES…

    Liked by 1 person

  19. ALEX says:

    We just need perspective. None of the numbers I have seen in early voting is bad for us currently and actually positive. You can Definetly see the trend in Florida and North Carolina with a lower Black turnout and even the honest MSM is mentioning it…

    If we were seeing huge get out the vote(early voting) for democrats it would be different. Republicans always vote at higher numbers on Election Day. Early voting has been manipulated to be the democrat ground game in many ways…I have not seen massive democrat registration jumps either….

    Liked by 1 person

    • Cardinals82 says:

      The worry trolls don’t care about these facts. Their only goal is to cause concern and worry among Trump supporters. They don’t care/understand dem numbers are down across the board and that republicans have always voted in force on Nov 8. The fact that its so close in terms of early voting in these states says landslide. Reps have never been in the lead in FL when it comes to mailin ballot and eaely voting, yet they are so that says it all.

      Those who rarely read posts here and those who are “new” lack this basic understanding (or flat out dont care) that Sundance has hammered for months and its evident by their postings.

      Liked by 2 people

      • lionslover says:

        Come on, this is ridiculous. People who worry about overconfidence are not trolls. We simply are the same people who let others tell us the same stuff in 2012, Romney was going to win for sure, the polls were wrong, only to find ourselves gut punched on Nov 9th. There may be a lot of new voters who don’t normally vote that will vote against Trump.
        Calling folks trolls who do not want to wake up on Nov 9th to a horrible gut pain because they talked themselves in to a for sure victory is just silly. I am hoping for a Trump win as badly as anyone, but no way am I just going to convince myself that this is going to be a landslide. I was told by Rush, Hannity, and many others that the polls were rigged and Romney was going to win and I regretted it. Rush and Hannity are NOT doing the same now and said they learned their lesson last time, and so did I and many others.

        Liked by 3 people

        • Cardinals82 says:

          There’s a difference. You know what the difference is and seeing as you just said a bunch of new voters ‘may’ come out against Trump proves my previous point.

          Liked by 1 person

          • trumptea says:

            Dude, you are way off base.
            You are lumping “caution” and “careful optimism” in the same boat as “worried trolls” …

            Like

        • Trump is leading in the polls in most of these states, or within the MOE (thus, a turnout battle). It’s very much not the same as Romney. The state-level polls are capturing movement towards him, because it’s harder to tweak a state poll. You have to reflect each state’s unique demographics, so the whole thumb on the scale effect isn’t as severe. Romney wasn’t ahead in Nevada with a close early voting race, as an example. It’s simply not the same at all.

          Like

        • Paul Killinger says:

          Why would there be “many new voters who don’t normally vote voting against Trump?” What EVIDENCE is there of that? WELL, WHERE IS IT?

          Like

          • The Democrats have been madly registering Hispanics for 4 years. And anyone who get Medicaid is also given a voter registration form–so think of all those new people enrolled in Medicaid because of Obamacare.

            So yes, there are new voters who aren’t going to vote for Trump.

            Liked by 1 person

        • Paul Killinger says:

          Here’s an idea- Rather than worry yourself sick about the election’s outcome, why don’t you call everyone you know and ask them to vote for Donald Trump.

          Tell them he’s going to do his best to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, and ask for their help!

          Liked by 1 person

        • apcharles says:

          Just outed yourself troll

          Like

        • sDee says:

          “I was told by Rush, Hannity, and many others that the polls were rigged and Romney was going to win and I regretted it.”

          If you have learned anything here at the CTH, it has got to be the true nature of the UniParty. Rush, Levin and Hannity are its talking heads. Right wing propagandists.

          Romney was in it to throw the race. His donors the same global elites as Hussein’s. The GOPe knew he was a solid backup should a monster vote materialize.

          Trump took on all of the above and beat them each and every step. He will deliver on the final victory. The monster vote will not retreat at this point. .

          Like

          • lionslover says:

            You have to be kidding with this. Hannity has been fighting tooth and nail for Trump all the way from the beginning. He is NOT allowing himself to believe it’s over by saying the poll are wrong, it’s as simple as that. If it were 100 percent a Trump victory the dems wouldn’t even be campaigning. You think Obama would rather campaign in an assured, 100 percent loss instead of be out on the golf course? You are underestimating the sheer number of stupid people in this country if you think this is a 100 percent victory for Trump.

            Someone asked what evidence is there that many new voters will turn out against Trump? I don’t recall thousands upon thousands of vile, Romney hating peple marching and destroying Romney signs, causing violence at Romney rallies. I don’t recall schools and colleges being this anti Romney, so bad that they are pulling every dirty trick imaginable to get young people to vote left.
            There wasn’t EVEN CLOSE to the utter hatred, total total disgust of Romney by the left as they have for Trump. So absolutely, there will be many thousands and thousands of young morons and Hispanics that will vote for the first time specifically out of sheer hatred for Trump.

            Like

            • lionslover says:

              All I should have to point out is this. The US elected twice, AN AMERICA HATING MARXIST who was RAISED BY MARXISTS and sat in the church of GD America JUST BECAUSE HE WAS BLACK!!! And he won EASILY both times. And some think people who are worried about the amount of stupidity in this country and are not buying in to a 100 percent assured victory are TROLLS instead of just being cautiously optimistic folks who live with the true reality that stupid is a massive presence in this nation? Laughable. Have these folks even gone out in public, because if you do the stupidity is EVERYWHERE, it surrounds you. When I go to Walmart I hear as much Spanish as I do English.

              Sorry, but folks like me see this nation for what it has become, not for what we wish it to be again. I will celebrate big time when and IF Trump wins and it’s actually over on Nov 9th. Until then I am WORRIED as H E double toothpicks that we are about to lose our country for good to these leftist minions who hate it.
              To me, those who aren’t cautious are the ones who don’t understand the gravity of the situation we are in. The SC decisions this next term will change the country probably forever. Our country is at the edge of the cliff and if it goes over the edge it may be gone FOREVER!! And some want us to just assume it’s 100 percent over, after this country just twice elected an ovbious MARXIST who hates America? NO WAY, I am worried about my country and not assuming anything.

              Like

  20. NJF says:

    Thank you for all the hard work that goes into these updates…..even though all those numbers make my eyes bleed! ♥️ 👍

    Liked by 2 people

  21. Cornpops says:

    What do you guys think about NJ? Here in am mouth county, I see Rrump signs everywhere. This gets me excited, but Monmouth county is usually a red county. But a lot of people I talk to are voting Trump, and I’ve only seen 1 Hillary bumper sticker. That’s it. Do you think it’s possible he wins NJ?

    Like

    • tokelly83 says:

      I think it’s possible. She is only up +6 in the Stockton poll from September. Down here in psycho blue Camden County. Not many Trump signs, but a few, and way less Hillary signs than Obama. If media’a reports that the black vote is down are true, Essex and Camden help drive massive Dem vote advantages. He could eek out a win based on enthusiasm plus low Dem turnout. We shall see!

      Like

  22. highdezertgator says:

    To choose doubt as a philosophy of life is akin to choosing immobility as means of transportation.”
    ― Yann Martel, Life of Pi

    Liked by 2 people

  23. Tishchick says:

    We need NV. 😇

    Like

  24. Remember, Romney basically got croaked by Superstorm Sandy. It pushed him off the headlines at a crucial week in the campaign.. No hurricane this year to bail out Crooked Hillary!

    Like

  25. Bull Durham says:

    The big bad news that the Media is trying to push this week is?

    Russian connection? DOJ already dropped this to Manafort connection.

    13 year older being raped in the 1990s? KABC radio began pushing this today. The lawsuit has added two witnesses. It is classic Clinton deflection of the Epstein-Bill stories. Create a Epstein-Trump story. But it is moved to NY and it has potential to do damage if they push it hard this week.

    Trump University case.

    And bundled, they have impact.

    Aimed at motivating Clinton base to keep hating Trump. And to repulse undecided from choosing him. Even if they stay home or choose a third party, it helps her in close campaign.

    Everything works a little bit in the negative. These are desperate times for the desperate Dems.

    Like

  26. Old CrewDog says:

    My understanding on the “13 year-old” case is that it has been thrown out of court once already, that they wanted to move it to New York and that the judge with jurisdiction has informed the lawyers of the sanctions they will suffer if they try to bring this kind of junk case- citing the previous dismissals.

    Liked by 1 person

  27. David says:

    APA Polling Average For 11/1/16 (average of historically accurate national polls): http://www.accuratepolitics.com/2016/10/where-race-stands.html

    Trump +1.7 (his biggest lead yet)
    Enthusiasm: Trump +5.4

    State Map: No changes. Trump 265 to Clinton 223. 50 toss-ups. http://www.accuratepolitics.com/p/state-map.html

    Early Voting: No changes. http://www.accuratepolitics.com/p/early-voting.html

    So the question is, if Trump is now up 1.7 points nationally, how do you factor in his 5.4 point enthusiasm advantage? It will likely add at least several points to his final election day results… perhaps he’ll be up somewhere between 3-5 points nationally?

    Like

  28. Khel72 says:

    I don’t post alot but read all posts and comments every day. Love this place! I’m in Las Vegas, me and wife voted early yesterday. All our friends and family are all voting Trump on election day, that’s 30+ people of which half aren’t regular voters or voted Obama. 2 die hard dem friends are just depressed at this point, I think they can see the writing on the wall. I believe in the end Nevada will be on the Trump Train.

    Like

  29. Wayne Robinson says:

    There is some very smart people indeed if all the numbers of the past somhow tell them what will happen or is happening now . To me this seems like chatter . I find no real reason to take encouragement in this kinda thing same with counting signs ? I think it is interesting to note but really fact is it only informs you of where your looking . I do like seeing so much more visible Trump signs cause thats the horse im betting on but really all the noise im about ready to vote arent you? When i have voted i will feel good cause i served my countrys best interest , just like i did when i voted for Reagan . Im not voting for a party Im voting for Mr Trump and Mike Pence . Im really done with progressive socialist democrat party for the future . I think it would be appropriet to celbrate the death with a public burial with wake nationaly / its dead dead dead and will never come back and will only stink more if we dont . Im not sure how to proceed but as a lifetime long democrat and union member i am aware of the need .

    Like

  30. Joe says:

    I’m a concern troll (according to some) so quit reading right now if your snowflake is beginning to melt.
    Depending on what WikiLeaks/Anonymous/O’Keefe/Trump releases this week I can see Trump walking into the White House with over 500 electoral votes to Hillary’s thirty some. Nobody knows. This year IS different.
    On the morning of November 09 I hope to see newspapers bearing the headline “FREE AT LAST, FREE AT LAST (THANK GOD ALMIGHTY, WE’RE FREE AT LAST!)”

    Like

  31. Patriot says:

    Early voting numbers look decent for Trump (really good in Florida) but at the end of the day, it wont matter unless he picks up a state like Colorado, New Hampshire, Penn, Michigan…etc.

    We can talk all day long how early voting looks good in Nevada or Ohio…but it’s quite obvious Trump HAS to win those states. Those have to be states that are locked down or Hillary will win with over 300 electoral votes.

    I am thankful for those that are crunching the numbers, very interesting so far, but Trump needs some better news in the states that matter. It’s too bad several of them don’t engage in early voting, we might have a better picture of the race.

    Like

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