Update – Ballot and Voting Data From Nevada and Ohio Look Very Good For Trump…

We are in the phase where media-polling has lost its gaslighting influence because actual ballot and early vote data is available to refute the ridiculous media narratives.

[…]  The interests who control the rigged information systems are beyond “gaslighting” now; they have entered a phase were constructing and/or maintaining the false premise no longer works because contradictory empirical reality is visible.  Within this phase truth-telling is perceived as a risk. Be aware. –link

As such we are now seeing the Clinton Team add campaign stops in states the media have ignored: Wisconsin and Michigan are now in play.  The same optimistic data which shows Trump leading in Ohio is drawing candidate Trump into Michigan beginning Monday.

Previously we utilized the excellent insight and data collected by FLEPOREBLOG to look closely at Florida and North Carolina, both states are solidly in the Trump column.  Today FLEPOREBLOG provides the data for us to look beyond the media narrative, and into what’s actually taking place in Nevada and Ohio.

NEVADA

trump vegas 2

Latest Nevada Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting (which started on 10/22) of 10/28

1,939 (+290 from 10/27) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail-in-Ballot as of 10/27 (+4.7% Lead up from 4.6% on 10/27 {+0.1%})

Voted-by-Mail (Returned)

♦ Rep: 17,864 (+2,527 from 10/27)
♦ DEM: 15,925 (+2,237 from 10/27)
Other (Independents): 8,074 (+1,106 from 10/27)
Total Returned: 41,863 (+5,870 from 10/27)

#Trump(Rep): 42.7% (+0.1% from 10/27)
#HRC(Dem): 38.0% (same from 10/27)
Other (Independents): 19.3% (-0.1% from 10/27)

For Comparison – Here is what Early Mail-in-Ballots looked like in 2012 at the same time (keep in mind Week 1 in 2016 is not done yet)

Voted-by-Mail (Returned/Week 1 2012)

♦ Rep: 23,491
♦ DEM: 22,956
Other (Independents): 8,613
Total Returned: 55,060

#Trump(Rep): 42.7% (Down 0.1% from 2016)
#HRC(Dem): 41.7% (Down 3.7% from 2016)
Other (Independents): 15.6% (Up 3.8% from 2016)

535 more registered Republicans (Total Returned: 23,491) returned their Early Mail-in-Ballot compared to Democrats (Total Returned: 22,956) in Week 1 of the 2012 Presidential Election. When comparing 2016 to 2012 (Week 1 Only), Republicans are up (R: 1,939 {2016} to R: 535 {2012}) by 1,404 more early mail-in-ballots than 2012.

The lead for Republicans was 1.0% when looking at their % (R: 42.7% {2012} vs D: 41.7% {2012}) of returned mail-in ballots compared to the Democrats from 2012.

When comparing 2016’s % to 2012’s % (Week 1 Only), Republicans are up (R: 42.7% {2016} vs D: 38.0% {2016}) by (R: 4.7% {2016} to R: 1.0% {2012}) 3.7% more early mail-in-ballots than 2012.

EARLY VOTING:  29,141 (+986 from 10/27) more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of 10/27 (10.1% Lead down from 11.5% on 10/27 {-1.4%})

Early Voting (Only)

♦ Rep: 101,935 (+17,552 from 10/27)
♦ DEM: 131,076 (+18,538 from 10/27)
Other (Independents): 55,998 (+9,571 from 10/27)
Total Voted: 289,008 (+45,660 from 10/27)

#Trump(Rep): 35.3% (+0.6% from 10/27)
#HRC(Dem): 45.4% (-0.8% from 10/27)
Other (Independents): 19.4% (+0.3% from 10/27)

For Comparison – Here is what Early Voting looked like in 2012 at the same time (keep in mind Week 1 in 2016 is not done yet)

29,187 more registered Democrats (D Voted Early: 139,281) Voted Early compared to Republicans (R Voted Early: 110,094) in Week 1 of the 2012 Presidential Election.

When comparing 2016 to 2012 (Week 1 Only), Democrats are down (D: 29,141 {2012} to D: 29,187 {2016}) by 46 less early votes than 2012.

The lead for Democrats was 9.7% when looking at their % (D: 46.0% {2012} vs R: 36.3% {2012}) of Early Votes compared to the Republicans from 2012.

When comparing 2016’s % to 2012’s % (Week 1 Only), Democrats are up (D: 10.1% {2016} vs D: 9.7% {2012}) by 0.4% more early votes than 2012.

Early Voting (Only)

♦ Rep: 110,094
♦ DEM: 139,281
Other (Independents): 53,610
Total Voted: 302,985

#Trump(Rep): 36.3%
#HRC(Dem): 46.0%
Other (Independents): 17.7%

You can track this daily at the following link – SEE HERE

Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting historically, that assumption is used.

The good news is that the Axiom state poll from 10/23, 3% more Democrats are voting for Trump than HRC (21% D for Trump while 18% R for HRC). Also Other (Independents) has also been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent state poll on 10/23, Trump was winning I by 19%. If we take the Axiom state poll data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as follows in votes mailed or early voted so far:

♦  R: 98,235 (R voting for Trump) + 30,870 (D voting for Trump) + 38,123 (I voting for Trump) = 167,228 Total Votes

♦  D: 116,131 (D voting for HRC) + 21,564 (R voting for HRC) + 25,949 (I voting for HRC) = 163,644

Trump = 50.5%
HRC = 49.5%

Trump appears to be leading as of 10/28 by a margin of 1%.  This is very close.  However, Trump was up only up 0.2 yesterday 10/27  (Trump = 50.1% to HRC = 49.9%) so at least the space has grown slightly. Donald Trump will be back in Nevada Sunday, with a campaign stop in Las Vegas.

OHIO

trump ohio fair 8

Ohio continues to look increasingly good for Donald Trump.  Hamilton County, Ohio, is considered a battleground county in the Axiom Battleground Counties Poll. It is a predictor for Ohio.

FLEPOREBLOG – Latest Hamilton County, Ohio Absentee Ballot Requests and Returns as of 10/28 (Source Link Here)

2,189 (+330 from 10/27) more registered Republicans have returned an Absentee Ballot or Voted Early as of 10/27 (3.8% Lead up from +3.6% on 10/27 {+0.2%})

Voted-by-Mail (Returned) or Early Voting

♦  REP: 18,880 (+1,719 from 10/27)
♦  DEM: 16,691 (+1,389 from 10/27)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 21,354 (+2,162 from 10/27)
LIB: 19 (+1 from 10/27)
Green Party: 45 (+6 from 10/27)
Total Returned: 56,989 (+5,277 from 10/27)

Trump#: 33.1% (-0.1% from 10/27)
HRC#: 29.3% (-0.3% from 10/27)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 37.5% (+0.4% from 10/27)
LIB: 0.03% (same from 10/27)
Green Party: 0.08% (same from 10/27)

Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting historically, that assumption is used.

The good news is that in the Rasmussen poll yesterday, Democrats and Republicans are even in the crossover vote (12% D for Trump while 12% R for HRC {I DON’T BELIEVE THIS TO BE THE FACT BUT LETS GO WITH IT). Also No Party Affiliation (Independents) has also been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent poll on 10/23, Trump was winning I by 4% (THIS IS ULTRA CONSERVATIVE). If we take both Rasmussen and Axiom polls data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as following in votes mailed and early voted in so far:

♦ R: 18,880 (R voting for Trump) + 0 (D voting for Trump) + 11,104 (I voting for Trump) = 29,984 Total Votes

♦ D: 16,691 (D voting for HRC) + 0 (R voting for HRC) + 10,250 (I voting for HRC) = 26,941

Trump = 52.7%
HRC = 47.3%

I did not include Libertarian (LIB) or Green Party totals in this calculation.

There have been polls in OH showing Trump getting 20% more than HRC among Independents. My tally above only uses a 4% difference. If we use the latest Fox poll from the other day that shows Independents at +13% for Trump, the results will look like the following:

Trump = 54.4%
HRC    = 45.6%

Obama won Hamilton County by 4.7% in 2012 – SOURCE – Hamilton County Ohio 2012 Election Results:

B. Obama (i) Dem – 51.8% Total Votes 208,508
M. Romney GOP – 46.9% Total Votes 188,653
G. Johnson Lib – 0.9% Total Votes 3,596
J. Stein Grn – 0.2% Total Votes 974
R. Duncan Una – 0.1% Total Votes 397
V. Goode CST – 0.1% Total Votes 329
S. Alexander Soc – 0.0% Total Votes 115

Folks, based on what we have data wise so far and the fact that that SD shared an article discussing the MV in Butler County, OH. I can now soundly say that we will win OH by 8 to 10 points (55 – 45)!  Ohio will be called the first minute after the polls close on Election Day in the state!

trump ohio fair 6

SUMMARY:  Trump is very solid in Florida and Ohio with an almost identical statistical result of a 7 to 10 point lead.  No worries.  Trump is also solid in North Carolina which has a traditionally strong election day vote advantage, November 8th, for Trump.  Nevada is the closest of the four states but Trump appears to be holding a slight advantage, and will be there on Sunday.

trump-lionlion-cloud-2

 

This entry was posted in Donald Trump, Election 2016, media bias. Bookmark the permalink.

310 Responses to Update – Ballot and Voting Data From Nevada and Ohio Look Very Good For Trump…

  1. Al says:

    Why are people like Karl Rove and Larry Sabato saying that this news probably won’t make a deference and being down 4 point nationally is too much to over come in the last 10 days.. ?? Don’t they analyze the early voting? Or are they just part of the establishment and hope Trump loses.

    Liked by 2 people

    • WeeWeed says:

      Yup. Establishment.

      Liked by 3 people

      • ladypenquin says:

        Rove is an Establishment GOP, in the pocket of the globalists. Sabato is a Lefty masquerading as a “objective” academician.

        Liked by 6 people

      • churchladyiowa says:

        Guys, we ARE winning! Iowa’s been in the blue camp for several election cycles. And my county tends to go Dem with all the Hispanics here. BUT . . . just today I have two unprecedented pieces of news:

        Hubby came back from weekly Saturday auction. “Guy I used to work with who is big in the Dem party has this honkin’ huge Trump button on his cap!”
        Customer at my store from neighboring town and formerly in county democrats announced she & her husband are Trump supporters. AND, she is Roman Catholic and proudly announced that the majority in their church circle of friends are also voting Trump. Mainly because of Hillary’s pro-abortion stance.

        Also, today I sent another couple hundred dollars direct to the Trump campaign in New York City.

        Liked by 9 people

    • ajbenius says:

      Lol how often has Karl Rove been correct in the past years?

      Like

      • notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital says:

        Hey, with all Hillary’s evil emails being revealed, will they implicate ol’ Turd Blossom too????????

        Like

    • ccr196647 says:

      Sabato is a democrat hack can not stand the guy. Rove is Bush loving rhino who has not been right with his chalk board in quite a while.

      Liked by 1 person

    • longiron2 says:

      First you have to believe the media polls???? then go from there.

      Like

      • notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital says:

        All polls pushing Hillary are the new Nazi (i.e. Globalist) BOUGHT AND PAID FOR POLLS.

        Liked by 1 person

      • notvicchanko says:

        It is laughable that the ABC Tracking poll that had Hillary UP 12 points a few days ago has now revised the current result to Clinton +2 citing a “shift in electorate makeup” and this unbelievable shift happened over just 4 days. In other words they have been either incompetent or lying and they kept it up as long as they could. Useful idiots indeed.

        Like

        • Rino Hunters United! says:

          There you see that ABC/Liberal Press attacking ALL of America – they are just trying to attack Trump supporters energy/momentum – and trying to prop-up fading Hillary supporters….. (her turnouts are tiny compared to Barry at this time in 2012!!) – Even using 5-6 heavy hitters – no one is going to her rallies or buying her book, and they are NOT GOING TO GO TO THE POLLS FOR HER EITHER!!

          If it looks like Hillary is going to Lose – the DEM VOTE will fall-off-a-cliff in a second… If Dems think she is losing on Monday – they will not vote for her on Tuesday. And that magic propaganda happens in the media RIGHT NOW! Dem voter intention, generally. is easily manipulated as it is an ’emotional vote’ – if the GOP had a media presence we could destroy them overnight – but the Left controls 95% of the Media.

          We on the Trump side will not stop – regardless of headwinds ro propoganda – EVEN IN THE Bluest of States TRUMP VOTERS WILL VOTE AND BE COUNTED!

          THE MONSTER VOTE IS COMING.

          Like

    • notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital says:

      A1 you know a person that the Bushes personally nicknamed “Turd Blossom” always lies!

      SNARK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Like

    • barton2016 says:

      If it was Mitt Romney the story would be there’s plenty of time to catch Clinton.

      Liked by 1 person

      • ladypenquin says:

        One week out, they had Reagan down 9 pts. and at that time there were only 3 news stations and EVERYONE got their news from those left-leaning, Dem/Commies so-called journalists. This psyops is nothing new.

        Drudge had a headline from the WaPost etc. that showed Hillary dropped 10pts this past wk, and that was before the FBI announcement yesterday.

        Liked by 1 person

    • Rove and Sabato, they proved a long time ago you can’t trust anything they say. Rove especially is a Bush globalist who is very good at losing elections. Wish he’d get lost.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Pam says:

    Ok, there are now two stops in MI added to the schedule for Monday in Grand Rapids and Warren.
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/

    Liked by 5 people

    • Notamemberofanyorganizedpolicatal says:

      Michigan going TRUMP this year!

      Hooray!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Liked by 4 people

      • grannysue says:

        If you live in any of those states, please help get out the vote for Trump. I don’t know if it is possible to register to vote right now. For some, it will be too late to register. I think Nevada will fall into the Trump column, if we can stop the buses running and get poll watchers.
        Reid won his state by picking up Hispanic workers at casinos and running buses to take them to vote from one place to another. Watch for the vote fraud in that state. We can hope and pray our Lord puts Trump over the top. Also, Texas appears to have a huuuuge amount of vote fraud going on for Hillery. There is a systemic problem with our voting equipment that is not being told. My sister told me yesterday two of her friends had their machines flip to Clinton from Trump. There is also no paper trail in Texas from these machines. This is a deep red state no matter what the media says. If Clinton wins this state it will mean she stole it big time.The Bush family is behind these voting machines.They are globalists and have a vendetta against Trump.

        Liked by 4 people

        • longiron2 says:

          What do you think the new email thing is all about. Divert the attention of the public from VOTER FRAUD. After the election no one will care especially if HILLARY is elected.

          Like

        • notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital says:

          GrannySue in that case Trump can sue Texas red…………

          Like

        • lbmomblog says:

          not to worry about Texas, yes some voting issues, but everyone I hear from is now asking for paper ballot or for polling person to fix issue as they stand there. And, our state government is mostly Republican. as you said, Texas deep red.

          Like

        • Wayne Robinson says:

          Granny i find these reports unbelievable not that cheating is above and beyond for Hillary or her supporters , but because if i went to vote and something like that happened no one would be able to ise that machine again . I would destroy it physicaly befire i reported it . In otherwords no one would be able to use it . This is a civil issue not a criminal one . Every one as a right to replace a spoiled one with a blank one and to complete their voting . I could see the headlines voter smashes machine then completes voting .

          Like

        • William Ford says:

          The globalist Bush family is a bunch of GOP traitors. They have destroyed their reputation and it will be impossible for any future Bush family members to run and win.

          Liked by 1 person

    • Just got my ticket!!! Warren is heavily Democratic, but it was full of Regan Union workers in 1980, and it is full of Deplorables in 2016!!!! MAGA!!!!

      Liked by 6 people

    • Desert Transplant says:

      Trump also added a trip to Albuquerque, NM for tomorrow evening. It will be held in a hanger! I have to say I am surprised, but pleased by this. Hillary is running negative ads on him here and has been for a month or so.

      Liked by 4 people

    • falsinator says:

      And New Mexico tomorrow. That is a very interesting development to say the very least.

      Liked by 1 person

  3. AndrewJackson says:

    These results are looking really good. One thing that is tough to predict from all of this data is the Monster vote. In my opinion, monster voters are much less likely than your typical voter to vote early. My guess is most want the excitement of delivering their cold righteous anger right on election day (at least this is what I want).

    Liked by 7 people

    • Bob W says:

      I think there is truth to this. I want the full experience of participating on game day. My state will go Trump I am sure so if I’m out for some reason it won’t affect things.

      Like

  4. prusmc says:

    Reading the Trump schedule makes me wonder why he is squandering precious resources by appearing in New Mexico. Also question going to Greely and Golden,Colorado where there are major unuversities which are 10 to 1 against him. Why not triple or quadruple in Nevada where he has good prospects?. Las Vegas has the most votes, unfortunately it is a Union stronghold which is heavily for the harpy. There is hay to be made in the hinterland that is essential to off set the Vegas majoties of the Ds. Arizona usually is a given for a Repubican, but with both McCain and Flake for Hitlery is it salvageable?

    Like

    • ladypenquin says:

      Not squandering anything. Enthusiasm for Hillary is almost non-existent, except for the usual moochers off of the rest of society. Trump has good reasoning for wherever he goes. Don’t know where you’re getting your news about Arizona.
      Concern noted…

      Liked by 6 people

    • MAGA2016 says:

      Please leave, CTR shill. Arizona is guaranteed and was never in play.

      CO is quickly becoming a chance win for Trump, and NM is worth a shot if you’re in the area.

      Liked by 3 people

    • CheeseHead says:

      Perhaps it will all become clear to you on Nov 8th.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Larry Elliott says:

      Very smart to go to New Mexico. Green Party is big there (Stein )and Johnson will get his highest percent. Trump could actually win there with 40 percent of the vote. You could have something like 40 38 18 4 result giving us all five EVs.

      Liked by 1 person

    • navysquid says:

      Don’t buy into that AZ polling…Trump will own AZ!

      I am worried about the nationwide fraud in all the places we should be with stories already of votes being flipped. On election day it will be too busy and they’ll be too excited for some to even look at their ballot.

      TRUMP MAGA !!

      Like

  5. David says:

    Latest from Accurate Politics (10/29/16 – Friday’s bombshell is not yet factored into these polls):

    APA Polling Average: Clinton +0.2
    Enthusiasm: Trump +5.1
    http://www.accuratepolitics.com/2016/10/where-race-stands.html

    Early Voting: Trump leading in or looking likely to carry Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, and Nevada. In that case Trump stands at 265 EVs if current trends continue. http://www.accuratepolitics.com/p/early-voting.html

    State Map: Michigan, New Hampshire, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District move to “toss-up” – Trump 265 to Clinton 223. http://www.accuratepolitics.com/p/state-map.html

    Liked by 7 people

    • vfm#7634 says:

      Good news. Having PA and CO as the only toss-up states was good, but adding MI and NH+ME2 mean things have gotten a lot tougher for Hilldawg.

      Like

  6. clash108 says:

    It appears Michigan early voting is going Trump’s way. 🙂

    Liked by 3 people

  7. Guarantee you that the Comey bombshell is related to the early voting stats that are coming out. If Hillary was going to be the sure winner I am certain Comey would have found the leverage to shut down the internal dissent among the rank & file at the FBI. But since they can see these numbers just as clearly as we can, Comey has no choice. He has to re-open the investigation or he himself is in deep doo-doo with the next Trump AG and the massive internal investigation that is sure to follow.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Spencer's Mom says:

      Good Point – also – I think that it is clear that Hillary can’t within without a hell of a lot of cheating – so Democrats realize that she is probably going to lose.

      THEREFORE – they want potential charges against her OUT THERE NOW – so that Obama can pardon Hillary, Bill, Chelsea, Huma Abedin, Cheryl Mills, Loretta Lynch, et. al., before Obama vacates the office.

      Like

      • James O'Malley says:

        This makes sense. I doubt Comey changed his mind, he’s simply responding to internal pressure from his agents at the FBI, but also realized he could spin this into a win-win for him and Hillary: he gets to (try to) restore his reputation, Hillary gets a chance to actually get pardoned and set free.

        Like

    • falsinator says:

      Future AG Rudolph Giuliani will bring the rapture on these criminals

      Liked by 4 people

  8. The Recent Republican says:

    The power of Kek cannot be denied.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Borealis says:

    I just spent a few minutes on RIghtScoop. Man, there are people there who are absolutely identical to Palin-bashers back in 2008. They are seriously unhinged.

    I think I need to take a shower now.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Spencer's Mom says:

      yeah on a whim i went there and a few other sites last night – just to see what other people were seeing and saying and — WHOO BOY! – unhinged is the right word. 🙂

      Liked by 2 people

    • Ed says:

      One I visited was demanding that no services, healthcare, or goods for Trump supporters. These same people were upset because a shop wouldn’t bake them a cake!

      Like

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