New York Times Continues Trying to Quantify The Looming 2016 Election Possibility of The Monster Vote…

There are two important ratios to remember 65/35 and 55/45.

Throughout the past year those who have followed political opinion will note the consistent and reoccurring appearance of these two sets of statistical ratios.

trump-rally-deplorables

♦ First, a variant of the ratio “65/35” shows up in random series of obscure polling questions done by alternative or social media.  Three examples include two Bravo Network broadcasts asking for voter input, and another from data tech “Zip App“.

The Bravo Network were so stunned by the (65/35) results of their initial poll – they actually repeated it just to make sure.

… “the results of this poll even more surprising is that the demographics of Bravo viewers are far different than the average stereotype of Donald Trump supporter” (link)

However, it should also be noted “65/35” shows up again in the NBC poll daddy result from the Commander-in-Chief forum.

As the creator of Zip App outlines the key baseline metric is 400 random input opinion results.  Once the data reaches 400 results, the resulting ratio rarely changes even with exponential increases in responses to the hundreds of thousands.

♦ The second ratio “55/45” – is a consistent ratio which shows up on within media comparative opinions which are more traditionally driven.   Viewership of the Convention speeches (32.2M Trump -vs- 27.8M Clinton), is one 55/45 example.  Non-adjusted battleground polling (raw data not modified) is another example of 55/45 showing up.

It’s an odd dynamic to find two consistent ratios “65/35” and “55/45” showing up repeatedly and predictably depending on the collection source.  Non-traditional, or social media, matrices delivering “65/35”; and traditional matrices delivering “55/45”.

Within those two ratios there’s a pattern of consistency beyond random data.  In essence, they appear too frequently to be just arbitrary coincidence.

Of course, all of the above examples are outside of the media’s ability to influence them; and quite obviously there’s no limiting denomination, no set of eligibility standards, to exclude anyone participating by giving their opinion.   It’s just raw opinion data.

However, all of that said – those opinion levels still exist, regardless of anyone’s ability to filter it.  And perhaps that’s why we see the New York Times quietly going back to their research mode in an effort to quantify the potential for a landslide Trump victory.

The NYT already publicly shared once before (June ’16) they were evaluating an entirely new political dynamic – SEE HERE – when they announced an adjustment to the 2012 exit poll voter data, and admitted non-white voters were statistically less influential than previously espoused.  You might remember this part of their analysis:

nyt vote data

(source)

In their latest publication the Times is revealing how the scope of the Trump vote improves almost exponentially with higher turnout amid those who historically vote the least.

[…]  At the individual level, education and income are still two of the strongest predictors of whether someone will turn out at the polls.

“Most of the differences between people who vote and those who don’t vote can be accounted for by motivational reasons — levels of political interest and engagement,” said Benjamin Highton, a professor of political science at the University of California, Davis. “And levels of political interest and engagement are strongly correlated with education and income.” (read more)

In essence what the New York Times outlines is that if the general election has a higher turnout, which includes increases amid those groups who have the lowest traditional turnout, Trump will capture an exponentially large segment of that new voter bloc – because the identified Trump base is within those marginalized groups who have traditionally voted the least..

Trump rally illinois 4

~ SEE HERE ~

And Trump would benefit…

By a ratio of….

Wait for it….

Yup, “65/35”.

Say hello to the Monster Vote.

Go figure.

bigger-basket

The key is going to be Monster Vote registration.  If we can get massive numbers of new voters registered, the benefit for our objective should carry within the same ratio 65/35.  We need to do everything within our power to ensure everyone is registered to vote.   More on that will follow…

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This entry was posted in Cold Anger, Donald Trump, Election 2016, media bias, propaganda. Bookmark the permalink.

273 Responses to New York Times Continues Trying to Quantify The Looming 2016 Election Possibility of The Monster Vote…

  1. Hillbilly4 says:

    Per Churchill: slightly modified – ‘ ‘, never give up. Never give up! Never give up!! Never, never, never-never-never-never!'”
    We rest only one day: Nov 9th….after the win. Nov. 10th – we go back to work.

    Liked by 6 people

    • Coco1050 says:

      I’m in PA—- no sign of our GOP registering anyone anywhere. They are so worried about that wimp Toomey they just keep calling to see if registered voters want him. They truly are clueless.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Ryan Workman says:

        I don’t know where you are in Pennsylvania, but in my area there has never been such disparity between the candidates. On primary day my county voted, wait for it….65% Trump and 35% for everyone else (Cruz, Kasich, Clinton, Sanders) combined! I understand the drag Toomey is having on the election here, but I find there to be a great balancing act going on with the Trump train settling for Toomey and the GOPe settling for Trump. This could end up complimenting the turnout and resulting in a victory much like what we see in the Ohio polling with Trump and Portman.

        Like

    • tg159 says:

      Nov. 9th is akin to D-Day,”the beginning of the end.” We storm the beaches of establishment D.C. and begin fighting inch by inch through the hedgerows of entrenched bureaucracies.Come election night what we win is a place on the battlefield and believe me,the real fight begins on Nov 10th!!!!

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Doug says:

    I have gotten ten people registered in the past week that hadnt been. Its in Louisiana so not really needed, but every vote helps. So many people dont realize how easy it is to register to vote now. Much easier than it has been , at least in Louisiana. Ill make sure to remind them to vote when early voting starts too.

    That being said I would like some guidance on who to vote for to the senate. We have a jungle primary here so its different than everywhere else. We dont have repub or dem primaries so I would like to know which republican is best to vote for to promote trumps agenda and send to the general election in december which could possibly be a general between two republicans.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. tz says:

    There has been a very large block of Christians who either never registered or are registered but don’t vote. That is likely to change this election.
    I know it was a Black church and a Jewish prayer shawl, but that short speech should rouse all Christians.

    Liked by 3 people

  4. Linda S Block says:

    If Trump’s wins with a monster vote, Obama’s legacy will be tarnished. If he gives Hillary Clinton and friends (which includes FBI Director James Comey) full pardons before Trump’s inauguration, it will be destroyed. Pardon for Comey? A Trump attorney general would find it easy to indict Comey for obstruction of justice under the color of authority. Even a Clinton pardon might be enough to save Comey because of the other names mentioned in the different investigations.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. tg159 says:

    I believe come the night of Nov 9th the word landslide will not be quite correct to describe the vote totals for Mr. Trump.Tsunami will be far better telling of the events of that day…….Tsunami warning for the globalist on Nov 9th!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Pingback: This Election Could Be YUGE

  7. redsequin4 says:

    “There Are More White Voters Than People Think. That’s Good News for Trump.”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

    Isn’t that the entire premise of the Monster Vote Sundance lays out so perfectly? There are millions of white voters who either don’t vote or rarely vote but for the first time in their lives are excited about a candidate named Donald J. Trump.

    Republicans were duped into believing they had to pander to Hispanics to win elections. It always drove me crazy when the MSM would pontificate about the minority vote and how Republicans couldn’t win elections without it. Well the last time I checked, whites are still the majority in this country but many don’t vote because the GOPe numbskulls keep serving up loser candidates every 4 years, who speak in platitudes and don’t connect with these voters. Now here comes Donald Trump the populist, America First candidate, who’s offering real change to these disillusioned voters. They’re out there now, that’s why DT’s rallies are so massive everywhere he goes. He’s ignited a movement which is going to propel him to the White House. As Sundance says, we all have to work our tails off to make sure as many of these Monster Voters are registered and get to the polls.

    Also there are what Scott Adams calls the “shy Trump voters” who won’t admit they’re voting for Trump to avoid being hassled by the left but when they step into the voting booth they’ll pull the lever for Trump.

    It’s going to be a glorious November 8th if we all do our part!

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Disgusted says:

    We are rebelling, refusing, rebuking, releasing, religating, revolting and any other way getting rid of politicians who believe we want them to decide our futures. We don’t.

    Like

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