The media polls seem to be moving in a positive direction for Donald Trump, but that’s not the whole story. What’s really going on is the media smoothing out the methodology and assumptions while trying to remain relevant. Nothing more. Polls don’t swing 15+/- points every few weeks…. it just doesn’t happen.
As we have outlined for years, all “media polling” is fraught with the same ideological bias inherent in the publication and broadcasting of those media entities presenting their interpretation of their constructs. Nothing more.
Consider this visible contrast. The Tampa/St.Petersburg area is home to over 2 million Florida residents (largest metropolitan area on the West Coast of Florida).
Here is Hillary Clinton’s rally today in Tampa Florida, which was specifically held on USF campus because the venue ensured a captive student populous:
(Top two are venue as set up, and as supporters arrived) To be fair to candidate Hillary Clinton here’s the best picture we can find of the event capacity while she was speaking:
Approximately 500 students, teachers, union members and supporters attended. Considering how poor her last two months of campaign events were, this was actually a fair crowd amid a population nearing two million.
Now lets take a look at the last campaign rally by Donald Trump in the exact same area. Tampa / St. Pete:
Any Questions?
Trump will carry Florida easily.
It won’t be close folks, it won’t even be close.
Let’s GOTV everywhere for Trump!
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Did she speak, bark or hack?
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Saying that Hillary’s a Phlegmatic Personality is more literal than it first seems.
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I have to disagree because her personality is the antonym of phlegmatic, it is temperamental, mercurial, volatile, emotional, unstable, nervous, tense, edgy, jumpy, twitchy, neurotic plus her cough is rather dry 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
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Yeah, but she is full of snot.
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Beautiful!
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Looks like all that barking by Crooked Hillary Clinton has given her a nasty Kennel cough…
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I’ve compared her to the coughing dog on Seinfeld.
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Or maybe Kack?
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Cough
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Bingo! All of the above. 🙂
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This is the best time to be ALIVE AND BREATHING!!! Hope Hillary goes into one of her fitz when the tallies are done… her head will unscrew
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The Evil Soros says that Trump will win the popular vote but not the Electoral College. Sigh. Then, Evil Obama in conjunction with his Flying Monkey, Jeh Johnson are working to make people think that the Russians will try and hack the election so therefore, they, Obama and Johnson, should take over the election process in all 50 states to ensure a “fair election”. Sigh. When will this garbage end? I have never seen such a bunch of evil people in my life and I have been around the block a few times in my life.
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Amen,Zelda. My exact thoughts
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Article I section 4, Article II , section I
AND the 10th amendment.
Yes , I know obama has no regard for following our Consitution but he cannot take over this or any election. We, The People will rise up against this tyranny.
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obama would wind up with multiple lead injections…he’d never be safe again. no one would care what color he was.
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Your governor, state Attorney General, and legislators should be contacted to tell them to tell the feds to take a hike! It’s up to them to stand up to this tyranny.
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They are now relying on electoral college. This is how bad it is.
As I understand it, electoral college has rules and for almost all states, they vote along same principles as primaries i.e. according to popular vote.
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the same electoral college that democrats wanted to abolish after gore barely won the popular vote in 2000…now, not so much
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This new App is going to change the polling ‘construct’ for good. It’s time to let the people vote in polls with far more accuracy than biased polling outfits claiming 3 or 4 percent margin of error (6-8 percent total). How about a margin of .002 % in 185,000 precincts across the U.S.? It’s called Pollmole and it is scheduled for release soon … maybe 2 weeks.
It’s an app designed to Make Elections Fair Again (MEFA)
Skip to 41 minutes to her discussion of the product and it capabilities by the founder….
https://m.facebook.com/PollMole-670122516479324/
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Not on my watch!!
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Yep.
Polls are the camouflage needed to prevent unrest when they steal it.. If enough people think “well..polls DID show a pretty tight race all the way!!!” then there will be no backlash.
Stealing the election won’t take efforts across the nation.. It’ll take targeted efforts in certain areas. These key areas go for Clinton and she’ll get the electoral count she needs.
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Each day that Maobama and Hitlery avoid prison a new horrible news story pops up. Today it’s Hemorrhagic something-or-other fever from millions of unvetted new migrants.
I’m not sure if the wheels of justice are turning in our favor yet or not, but I’ve made up my mind to hang on until November 8th. After that, it better be Trump&Pence.
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I agree totally Sundance. If this election isn’t stolen, Trump should win hands down!
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Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty! Don’t let the goons count the votes! Don’t let the goons rig the machines!
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This is my biggest concern also. The only solace I take in this matter is Sundance seems not to be bothered by it.
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Says who?
Polls
What polls?
All of them.
Ok
This exchange will be repeated until the end of time.
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I tweeted this earlier. As a resident, Tampa is in Hillsborough county, one of the key counties in the swing I4 corridor which is coveted by both sides. Trump had 15k twice at rallies with thousands who didnt get in. Hillary had to scrape to get 400 staff, security and students. Also, the local radio news channels have been discussing/promoting this appearance for a week, vs. Trump supporters who had to find out through social media. Romney lost this county by a little in ’12 and lost Florida by 79k. Trump will crush it in Florida
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Sanj, one can’t help but wonder – what incentive was given to the students to attend?
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an “a” in political science
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I didnt see many students in those USF pics — looked like Parents of students, faculty etc.
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Kids had to pay $2700 to see her.
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thanks Sanj, good to hear from your view.
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^^^^^
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Is Hillary “scraping” to get her meager attendance, or is she purposely restricting her events to much smaller venues so she can control WHO gets in, and thereby avoid hecklers?
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Trump set the all-time attendance record at the USF Sun Dome, previously held by Elton John.
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Tampa newspaper says 1,500 — which still isn’t much of a turnout.
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Tampa newspaper is the St Pete Times, fully as corrupt as the N Y Slimes and Washington Compost, so probably divide by three.
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More so…..reporters are slime.
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Mo, I quit reading St. Pete Times when they ran a full front page story about an African-American man who sadly lost his home during the housing crisis. It wasn’t until the back pages that they revealed he went on to murder a pregnant insurance exec and two convenience store workers. Never read that rag again.
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I dont trust the liberal rag Tampa Bay Times
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New narrative in the wild, it’s already being pasted on Twitter and into comments at Breitbart – as a male, Trump has a statistically higher chance of dying in his early 70s (in his first term as President) than Hillary does as a female. “So who’s really healthier?”
Unbelievable.
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Can they explain the ages of Carter and BushSr.? Both are 90+
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Yes, but Hellery already has one foot in the grave! That ought to count for something in the equation.
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Wonder if life-style was also factored in? Trump doesn’t drink or smoke and he never did recreational drugs. Moreover Hellery is very ill. Also compare their campaign schedules, hers is almost non-existent whereas Trump has held numerous events in a single day. How much you want to bet that particular Twitter comment was tweeted by someone backing Hellery?
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Not to mention she sold her soul to satan and he’s calling her home,,,,
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Her and hopefully soros.
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I don’t think even Satan would want her
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someone could push hillary down the stairs and her life expectancy would be zero
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One of Hillary’s goons could do what they do best and Trump’s life expectancy would be zero. Let’s pray that that never happens.
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P.S. Trump’s father lived until he was 93, his mother was 88.
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Trump relishes any discussion of his health against hers. Thats for sure! And apparently anyone who is president is in excellent health… they live forever it seems.
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Polls, schmoles. The crowds are the real polls.
Go Trump!!
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Sundance,
Looking forward to your November 9th, 2016 Trump victory article that will end with :
‘It wasn’t close folks, it wasn’t even close’
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With the polls “narrowing” there appears to be an effort by the media to focus on the Electoral College.
For example, I’ve noticed Reuters is starting to push the idea that Clinton has a significant advantage in the EC. This is nonsense when you consider the fact they are allocating margin-of-error states. They are giving Florida’s votes for Clinton, which is absurd.
It’s just another coat of paint being slapped on the rickety Clinton campaign to hide all the rust.
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RFK was a slamdunk too.
We need to be watchful.
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Strangely, hillary repeatedly reminded us of his assassination in the 08 primary
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Don’t forget she took the NY Senate seat that JFK Jr was eyeing in 1999. He was #1 in the polls right before his untimely death in a small plane crash. Hillary then won the race easily with him out of the way.
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What it looks like is happening is the media is showing Trump ahead to cause better democrat turnout. And, if they decide to steal the election, it will be easier the closer the polls are, if the polls are teetering back and forth into November. Nothing will ever be the same after this. Thank God, and good old fashioned Americans for that.
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“What it looks like is happening is the media is showing Trump ahead to cause better democrat turnout.”
Yup! They are pivoting now instead of showing the Crooked being way ahead like they did in the past. Not only that they want the Trump supporters to be confident so they will not go out to vote. It is PsyOps. WE must not listen or be influenced by these people even if it comes from our own. We ALL need to go out in droves to vote.
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Except for the faithful, dependent Democrat base, there isn’t anything about Hillary’s candidacy that encourages a positive response or turnout in November. We’re all diehards, and Trump has brought in huge numbers of voters because he is on the ticket, but the same isn’t going to hold up for the Democrats without Obama.
Hillary’s Democrats, except for their diehards, are going to be dealing with an indifferent voting populace this time. Trump going to blue states is telling us something…
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Marsha5 says:
September 19, 2016 at 7:41 pm
Hillary….Dirty tricks & lies gets you an empty Temple University turn out…an empty National Baptist Convention…Tampa Rally vacant seats. All I see is your missing base…they’re MIA like you were/are. Now where’s that record you wanted us to judge you on? Anybody?
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grainofsalt2,exactly what I was thinking this afternoon on my way home from work. ditto.
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totally agree Matthew. Ditto, Ditto, we need to be vigilante of the traps. And, not just us. the Team needs to be careful, this is a scam/scheme.
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Been saying that for months, and people think I’m insane.
It occurs to me, many of these people simply cannot imagine Hillary and the Democrats, losing, because they’ve been conditioned to think that is simply impossible.
Yet all the none-Media filtered predictors indicate a Trump win.
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That was a great segment, Pam! Thanks very much for posting it!
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As long as we Get Out the Vote!
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Hillary uses a “low-vision” podium with very large visual cues. This is so she does not miss the steps or topple over the edge during a “double-vision” or “short-circuit” moment:
The arrow points towards the steps. The large white squares define the “safe space” in the middle of the podium.
Looks like they rolled out the gymnastics mats for further fall protection.
USF-Tampa has 2 gyms. East and North.
This looks like the one without fixed bleachers. 2 basketball courts @ 50×94′
100′ x 100′ total, for crowd, media, candidate keepout area and props.
For a Presidential campaign, in a large metro area, it’s weak.
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The majority of comments at the Tampa Bay Times and the local Patch publication are negative about Hellery. Tampa Bay claims there were 1,500 attendees, lowered from 1,600.
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Crowd counting is interesting.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a7121/the-curious-science-of-counting-a-crowd/
A dense crowd is ~4.5 sq. ft. per person.
1500 people would thus occupy ~6750 sq ft
The gym in question is ~10,000 sq ft
Was 2/3 of the gym packed with people?
I’d say no. Maybe 30-40%, which would put the crowd at 670 to 900.
Remember the size of the gym has been condensed by cutting the corners behind (angled stands), pigpen in the middle, security at doors, media platform behind.
Weak crowd for a Presidential candidate.
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It would be a neat job for an honest statistics class to crowd count any of Hillary’s rallies.
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I thought that giant blue arrow on the podium was part of Hillary’s logo but I now see that it’s telling her which direction to walk in!
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Let’s count. I put the photo above into Photoshop, enlarged it and divided into four rectangles (horizontal and vertical). I divided the upper right quadrant into two more rectangles since it has the most people. If the picture was unclear, too bright or too pixelated to determine if a person was standing in the area, I counted it as a person anyway based on the density of the group.
By my unofficial count there are 266 on the left, 291 on the right for a total of 557.
That count includes Hillary, the security detail and the camera personnel.
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Notice the handrails. At the pictured Trump rally, NO handrails.
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She has them at every event. Uses both hands when deplaning.
She grips the microphone and lectern. Always has something in her hands or moves them.
She has advanced Parkinson’s disease and has shown hand contortions when not holding on to something.
There is a good video on this by an experienced MD.
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I saw that video here, yesterday, and I’m definitely down with the Parkinson’s diagnosis. All the puzzle pieces fit for PD.
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My mother passed on as a result of Parkinson’s. She definately had coughing spells though not as severe as Hillbomb’s.
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Sorry for your loss.
Air travel can exacerbate some coughing, depending on the root cause. It’s dry air, which is bad for mucous membranes. It’s also recirculated air, and we don’t see her staff or press pool coughing.
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My dad died of Parkinson’s, too, Cold. He didn’t have as frequent coughing spells as the Crooked Crone, but when he had them, they were very bad and prolonged. He did not, however, have any “short-circuit” episodes and only had a couple of mental lapses at the very end. Then again, he didn’t have the additional complications from a head injury that resulted in a concussion and cerebral venous thrombosis prior to PD diagnosis.
If, indeed, there is PD in addition to hrc’s other health problems, the polls will soon mean nothing, as it’s ridiculously apparent that health issues have advanced to a critical stage. We may very well be faced with the strange dynamics of a candidate who is unable to advance to the Presidential election due to rapidly declining health or death.
I can’t imagine that she’d win an election against Trump – ever – but if fraud placed her in the WH, I don’t think impeachment would be far behind; preponderance of evidence is too great and can only intensify with each passing day between now and January 20, 2017. Either way, through illness, death or impeachment, Kaine-the-ludicrous could become President. Mind-boggling thought. Nothing to fret over; I believe Teump will win by a gasp-worthy landslide. Just another impetus to work like crazy to ensure Trump becomes President Trump.
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Prayers for you to be strong and remember your real identity as a child of God Almighty.
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There are at least 100 local democrat operatives at every rally that vote dem no matter what. Discount them.
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It’s pure comedy..
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Wow. What’s the point of having the press on your tour if you won’t answer their questions. She’s a piece of work!
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What’s the point? To create the ILLUSION that she is no longer hiding from the press. That means she has HEARD the accusations, and has seen that the optic is damaging her campaign.
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USF East gym (empty)
2 college courts (@50′ x94′) – total roughly 100′ x 100′
Highschool courts are 50 x 84
Actual, usable crowd space is maybe 1/4 of that. Media has the back 1/4, side stands are used to fill in, only 3 deep. Center bullpen (i should say pigpen, after her phlegm spitting display) takes another quarter.
So you’re left with ~40′ x 60′ for audience. That’s the size of a large house. Her campaign is built on Hollywood deceptions. No crowds. Bad candidate.
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Even lyin ted had more people in his basketball gym/ring ..
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That’s interesting..pretty much the same setup for Pickles when she came to Rochester. She spoke in a gym.
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By design.
Smaller venues are easier to control the perception of being well-attended.
In larger gyms they will use dividers to deliberately make the place seem packed. Everything about her image is fabricated, manipulated and contrived.
Biggest phony on the planet.
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Very informative series of posts. Thanks 3×1!
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Up until today I hadn’t paid attention to her venues.
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In that ‘best picture,’ is that her medical ‘handler’ on the left side of the floor standing in front of the patriotic bunting? He’s been in hiding recently, but popped back up on the plane during her coughing fit yesterday.
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Sure looks like him … he also has the easiest access to the stage I might add should something happen too. Its so strange ..
btw where do you live in NOLA if you dont mind my asking?
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West Bank
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Lived there myself in the 80’s-90’s.
Terrytown, Gretna, Bellchase..
Best fishing in the world just down the road…
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Yes. Mystery Doc is on her left (the podium arrow points right to him)
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Hillary:”where is the doc?”
“mam, follow the arrow..”
He surely stands there to counter her falling down.
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Notice all the secret service guys have their backs to Hillary, but the medic keeps his eyes on her.
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Excellent point.
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Denial. Who could look at those crowds for Trump vs Hillary and conclude she has a prayer of winning, much less any kind of lead? This serious, unbelievable denial that the MSM, Democrats and all the usual suspects in DC are stuck in is the most astonishing phenomenon I’ve ever witnessed. It’s like mass hypnosis. I think when Trump wins the disbelief and hysteria will be something for the history books. My son says the Democrats and the elite think they are invincible. It’s pure madness.
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So. Last week here in Brooksville FL, several Federal i^^migr@tion officers arrived at a peanut farm and asked to speak with 60 workers. I just knew we were likely getting a fine. I was informed that wouldn’t happen as long as the workers agreed to a new govt program.
In a nutshell, a couple hours later the workers emerged with new living arrangements in section 8 housing in Hernando county, new cellphones and VOTER ID CARDS. They were specifically instructed that they would need to vote for Hillary because Trump would send them back. Speechless.
This is how it’s happening folks. Not sure if they were legit INS and HUD agents or operatives, regardless they produced valid voter cards on the spot and these people think they owe a debt of gratitude to the one who’s name we shall not mention.
Placed several calls to the Hernando County supervisor of elections. None were returned. Also asked several well connected people to relay the info to Putnam. Crickets.
Imagine the impact of this nationwide. Farms, fields, groves, packing plants. My faith in everything I thought I knew about my country is shattered. I really don’t want to wind up a victim of the <|!^t0^s, but we should all recognize shenanigans are afoot and they are very real.
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Pass it on to the Trump campaign.
I’d bet some of the big Ag people are backing Hillary, since Jeb! and Ted got bumped out of the running.
If the owner of the farm is using illegals, he’s the problem.
People are needed to satch for election fraud. Volunteer.
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“Drop it to Trump campaign”
Done. Dropped it in the “Contact the Campaign” button on donaldjtrump.com
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3×1, I assume you meant to say “watch” for election fraud? Sorry to nit-pick an otherwise great comment and suggestion. Thanks.
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So, have you forwarded this information to Governor Scott and Pam Bondi?
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This is really disturbing. I have no advice to offer, except to say if I were you, I’d feel the same way.
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Happy Days are here again…….
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But you do not factor in shillarys election fraud using electronic voting machines
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Another brilliant Sundance thread. 🙂 I laughed out loud when I scrolled down to the Trump Tampa photos. Hahaha!
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i hope i am replying to the trump/clinton florida rally comparisons article… those pics at the top were really funny, starting with hillary’s rally and moving on to trump’s rally, LOL! i hope trump wins and that he can handle it. he is a newbie to this venue, a real person, not a coached and polished politician. does anybody remember Eddie Eagle from the winter olympics maybe 30 years back? he was new to ski-jumping and took a lot of falls, but we loved his bravery and heart. i think trump is brilliant enough and sincere enough to learn on the job.
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On Predictit.org Hillary been dropping all day, now Biden is making big rise.
https://www.predictit.org/Market/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election
People have inside info Hillary is dropping out?
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Forget it. Down again. Hillary supporters grasping for straws maybe?
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I really liked the 3rd photo, big crowds real nice also, but showing Trump on small stage, looking small against huge scenery makes it look more powerful, one man with courage to stand alone with a huge message for many seems surreal.
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Oops, meant 7th photo. phone scroll not right.
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Even if the more favorable polls for Trump are simply the media readjusting their bias, it is encouraging to see Trump doing so well. It was mighty hard to see him so far behind for so long. Yes,yes, I know the media manipulates these media polls . . . but it gets discouraging to see low polls numbers for our candidate.
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Same for PA. We have a house in the Poconos in northeastern PA, about 45 minutes from Scranton. This past weekend, I saw Trump signs taped on two BUSINESS signs in the small little town near our lake house. That’s right, businesses are actually ADVERTISING that they are Trump supporters!
Had a guy in the local supermarket stop and chat with me because he saw my MAGA hat. And got numerous thumbs up from all kinds of folks.
Scranton area went twice for Obama, ain’t gonna happen this time. Furthermore, Luzerne county, where my old stomping grounds are, in and around Hazleton, is a bellwether county for presidential elections is polling for Trump by over 15%, and that was BRFORE his trips to Baton Rouge and Mexico.
It won’t even be close in PA.
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Doit4atlas I have been checking the axiom battleground poll dail. They haven’t updated it since July 15th. Luzerne is the county for PA. Could you send links with the poll you are referring to?
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From July 2016:
http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2016/07/18/poll-trump-leads-top-battleground-counties-u-s/
I grew up in Luzerne county, graduated from Hazleton High School. Trump was up by 23 on July 18th. It could only be a wider gap now.
I know these folks, they are family oriented, hardscrabble type folks, and it’s a HUGE coal region; hard coal for heating homes etc, burns clean. Our high school sports league was called the Anthracite League. In that region we know the difference between anthracite and bituminous coal.
They’ve had it with the global warming crap!
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Trump/Pence 2016
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In Everett, WA (a blue state), 10,000-13,000 attendees at Trump rally. I was there. What a blast!
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Welcome Sharon!
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I think there is something with the picture of her rally…look at the first with the police milling around at a check point…. and look at the 2 flags on top and to the right of her stupid sign and that black wall and how many chairs do you see? 4 chairs!…look at second picture more flags no wall and the next picture looks like the different podium layout….looks weird to me..now the last picture….look on the far left and look at all the people sitting down …does not look like bleachers…..they all suddenly brought bunch of chairs? seems like like something is off….
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Who is Matilda the Hun with Her Majesty here? Didn’t like the poll question. LOL
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That’s Jennifer Palmieri.
She worked for Obama and was Spokesman for disgraced cheating Senator John Edwards.
What? You want more pix? Errrrr, okay…
List of Hillary’s henchmen:
https://ballotpedia.org/Hillary_Clinton_presidential_campaign_key_staff_and_advisors,_2016
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Sundance, you mention in your post that What’s really going on with Media Polls suddenly showing Trump rising could very well be media smoothing out the methodology and assumptions while trying to remain relevant.
I am skeptical of Media polls. I think it may be more of CNN and other media outlets trying yet again to help out Hill, by thinking that if they show Trump ahead in the polls they 1. might slow the vote turnout down and 2. slow the Trump enthusiasm, and finally 3. begin to give Hill a little sympathy votes. A watchful eye on the sympathetic vote may be warranted on our part. As the coughing spats, and the attention to her illness…..some may lean sympathetically.
And, while I am on that subject…it may be wise to begin to think…if Hill/elected and becomes ill and not able to fulfill her term…we would be stuck with whats’ his name. Jolly Jelly Bean.
Kellyanne & Trump team (all of us) need to remain vigilante …don’t fall for the traps. Careful on this health subject,keep slightly off of it , allow it to whisper not yell from the mountains for a bit.
I smell the scent of a set up. I think it may be good time for American’s to think…what have you got to win? Jolly Jelly Bean as THE step-in POTUS. Ghost Busters agast.
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Ty Sundance I always count on the refuge to look at things fairly.
Sent from my iPhone
>
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During the Florida primary, Rubio had roughly the same crowd size as Hillary in Tampa. Trump won 66 of 67 counties in Florida.
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I live in Tampa, and had no idea she was even here. Now, when Trump visits, you KNOW it. Excitement fills the air, lots of people talking. Again, I didn’t even know she was here. There are Trump signs EVERYWHERE down here, in neighborhoods of different incomes.
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Of course Hillary has to have a captive audience, in the real meaning of the word “captive”. Meanwhile, people will come to Trump eagerly, both from the area and from outside the county, mileage be damned.
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I’m not going to believe in the Polls. I see the amount of people that attend Trump’s rallies and Clinton’s rallies. There has to be something meaningful there. How many rallies has Hillary Clinton actually did? To me, she’s not out there talking to the people. Who’s running for President? President Obama, First Lady, Mr. Clinton. He doesn’t deserve the title X- President, Chelsea? So who’s running for President?
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