Deconstructing The Insufferable “Ceiling Narrative” Yet Again…

As previously mentioned, in order to try and dilute the overwhelming victories being achieved by candidate Donald J Trump the media continues to sell a specific narrative that Trump has a ceiling of support.  The premise is that this “ceiling” can block Trump from running the table in state primary elections.

GOP Candidates Attend Presidential Family Forum In Des Moines

According to the punditry and professional political class, if the current field shrinks down, the non-Trump vote (Rubio or Cruz) will grow larger than Donald Trump’s vote.  Of course this ridiculous assertion assumes that any individual candidate’s support will go monolithically 100% to the next candidate.

As an example they say: if Carson drops out, 100% his support would go to Ted Cruz.  Or, if John Kasich drops out, 100% of his support would go to Marco Rubio.

However, a recent statistical analysis of this exact question has been conducted (yesterday) by Elon University polling in North Carolina (pdf here), and the factual results are entirely different.

As you can see from this graphic if Ben Carson drops out 39% of his supporters go to Donald Trump.  Also if John Kasich drops out 29% of his supporters go to Donald Trump:


What this graphic is showing.  If they drop out:

  • 31% of Jeb Bush support goes to Donald Trump
  • 39% of Ben Carson support goes to Donald Trump
  • 43% of Ted Cruz support goes to Donald Trump
  • 29% of John Kasich support goes to Donald Trump
  • 29% of Marco Rubio’s support goes to Donald Trump

♦ Marco Rubio benefits the most from Bush dropping out picking up 33% of his support.

♦ Donald Trump benefits the most from Carson dropping out gaining 39% of his support. (However, Cruz gets 27% and Rubio 25% of it)

♦ Donald Trump benefits the most from Ted Cruz Dropping out gaining 43% of his supporters. (Marco Rubio gets 36% of it)

♦ Marco Rubio benefits the most from John Kasich dropping out by getting 42% of his supporters.

♦ Ted Cruz benefits the most from Marco Rubio dropping out gaining 46% of his supporters.  (However, Trump still picks up 29%)

SUMMARY – There is no statistical analysis of this empirical data where the frontrunner, Donald Trump, doesn’t continue leading even if the field shrinks.  Math is math; and the math, along with the factual data, doesn’t support the narrative.

Trump thumbs up


This entry was posted in Donald Trump, Election 2016, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz. Bookmark the permalink.

374 Responses to Deconstructing The Insufferable “Ceiling Narrative” Yet Again…

  1. Paco Loco says:

    First he should bring a suit against Cruz as ineligible to be POTUS. If you want take out 20% of Cruz or Rubio’s supporters let the press try the case in the media..

    Liked by 1 person

  2. musicdoc2020 says:

    This poll shows why Trump is holding any heavy fire at Rubio. Would have thought that he’d attack by now, but looks like there is more upside for Trump if Cruz goes away. And with his own money on the line, the sooner he gets the win, the less he need to spend -at least in the primaries.

    Looks like Rubio is doing a fine job of hanging himself anyways. Just get him talking unscripted a bit more.

    Liked by 8 people

    • Remember too – Trump promised – and has kept his word – he doesn’t attack people until they attack him first. He only defends himself.

      Liked by 4 people

      • KH says:

        Well Rubio’s been going after him was that are direct attacks as has been Trump. Trump makes fun of him sweating, generically mentions immigration problems, Rubio spent the last two days saying 60% of the party will not vote for Trump and he’s unelectable in the fall. (course polling actually shows that number at 1/3rd on the first, and by that same polling standard the second is close to being true).

        Liked by 1 person

      • Ralph says:

        I can’t beleive that this is your measure. I was a strong supporter of Trump although I have had concerns about his electability in the general election. But his ugly and false implications about Carson and then Cruz demonstrate something I hoped I wouldn’t see – a man without character, a person who is about winning, only… Like the man he wants to replace. While I see him as better than anyone from the party of death and Hell, I have lost all respect for his pathalogical need to attack other people’s character among fellow Republicans in the most vile manner. I doubt pphe will be much different than Obama in the end – promise everything but deliverin Arpege… On a character scale, he’s a loser…


        • Notmeagain says:

          All right, I wasn’t going to say anything to your first comment, but you are doubling down. No candidate is going to win without defeating other candidates. That’s how it works. Cruz is the one who has played dirty tricks, that’s well documented. It may have been unkind to point out that it was CARSON who first said he had anger problems that were pathological, but on the other hand people who don’t want to get stones thrown shouldn’t move into glass houses. Of course he and all of them are about winning. Why would you want some person as top boss who wouldn’t try to be the boss?

          Liked by 2 people

          • Ralph says:

            Horse crap.


          • and Carson is on medication to keep his “impulses” mellow. Occasionally, seems he takes a little too much. Looks adorable when over medicated – like the Cheech and Chong candidate; and still has good thoughts – but not a good place to be as Prez.

            Re Cruz: you are right – and since your comment – about a dozen more have accumulated. He (also) is starting to miss some days on the campaign trail due to the multiple suits ranging frm finance donation laundering to eligibility (and also the Iowa frauds). And there are a few others piling up. I believe his attorneys have run out of Motions to Continue (and delay); and he’s going to need to face up to those very soon.


        • vincentjappi says:

          He doesn’t say half of the truth about Ted Cruz the Serpent.
          The other half you can see here, but for the conclusive agrument
          proving that he is ineligible.


        • Mike says:

          false implications about Carson and then Cruz demonstrate something I hoped I wouldn’t see – a man without character,

          false implications? Cruz has been caught in lie after lie. Yet, you don’t seem to have a problem with Cruz’s character. Could it be that you’re doing a little concern trolling?.

          Liked by 3 people

          • shallbe4 says:

            Love Trump and find no fault with him but I do believe that elections cycles are too long and that there should not be such a significant amount of money spent on elections. Sure the candidates are frustrated. They have say what the big donors tell them to say or those donors will pull their money. But Trump can say whatever he likes because nobody owns him. Our elections will be far more honest once the big money is gone and the American people will be far more involved when elections are about them.


        • R-C says:

          I don’t think I could disagree with you more.

          First point: your ‘concerns’ about Trump’s ‘electability’ are noted. And discarded.

          Second point: It seems you fail to realize that a primary election is a ‘knock-down, drag-out’ fight. Trump held his fire until the other candidate swiped at him, and then he CRUSHED them. As he should have.

          Politics is a rough-and-tumble environment. ‘Queensbury Rules’ don’t apply. Perhaps politics is just to hard a game for you, but don’t sit there and smear Donald Trump because you’re too squeamish for the game at hand.

          Liked by 1 person

          • Ralph says:

            You love you messiah, that’s clear. He was right when he insulted you all by saying he could shoot someone and you wouldn’t care. He’s your Obama.


    • Chubbz says:

      I do not mind Cruz staying in for now. He can continue to pound Rubotio’s anti-sovereign stance on open border immigration and absolute TPP support. Trump, together with Cruz ,can absolutely disintegrate Rubio out of political existence. Once accomplished, Teddy can head back to the senate to beat on the eGOP. It’s all about America Ted!


  3. tz says:

    Also, “the ceiling” is irrelevant, or mostly so.
    Delegates matter. Trump got all 50 SC delegates. Even in IA it was 8-7-7…
    This is before winner take all states, and even before the rules aren’t purely proportional in most states.
    In the General, there is the electoral college.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. Lulu says:

    John Kasich, when asked by Stuart Varney (FBN) why he wanted to be president (after a pause), “…I have the talent given to me by God ….” (paraphrased).

    Another one.

    And now he says “no one tells me what to do but my wife.

    So it’s God and his wife.


    Liked by 3 people

  5. Martin says:

    Liked by 9 people

  6. Trump refuses most endorsements by politicians already established in this mess (yet) – he is studying carefully to examine the negative factors “if” he allows endorsements by those already in politics; many I know will step up and support him in the General (the good ones!) haven’t endorsed any other – they are staying out; and wisely –

    When the Lt. Gov. of SC endorsed Trump, that was good. Himself, a great/honest man without any bought and paid for attachments on him; instead an honest politician who is very concerned for America to locally endorse him. That turned out to be a better endorsement than Haley, Gowdy, etc. – all who have conflict because of their financial connections/supporters and doing the right thing. They can’t – they are beholden. Same happened in NH with leaders (biz and local) there- you research the – they are the ones that aren’t involved in this hornet’s mess. That’s good. No conflicts. There are many who are better capable of helping Trump/the country out of it’s current state, because they steadfastly refused to develop “conflicts that would keep them from performing their jobs honestly. Yay! We have many great leaders to help this movement already in place.

    Unfortunately/really easy to see too – those that have “endorsed” Cruz/Rubio/others are riddled with conflicts for their own $$$ and same with their donors.

    Because of and specific to those conflicts that keep them from being other than strong supporters of Americans first, special interests are not ruling the government, both Rubio and Cruz donors/supporters are not extremely adverse (even) to a Hillary win. They are the ones who “complain” to the public but when you check their records are quite willing to go along with what is wrong with our country if the money is there and they get some. That is the problem with donor class politicians. They will never truly fight for what is right; they are allowed to complain to the voters – but in reality, support the exact same corruption as the other side. And will do nothing to stop it.

    I remember when Obama was an Ill. Senator. To the voters that voted him in he constantly spoke up about the energy giants and other issues – everyone loved him for those words – but, simultaneously while talking bad about them (all), he was funneling tax payer monies to them to use for their own future successes (he was berated them for). Point – they don’t care what these politicians say about them in public – as long as they keep getting money from them.

    Nobody except Trump will be able to win Hillary in the Fall because of. Everyone else is fighting (along with the DNC) to keep any exposure of the mess that it has become (accidentally or otherwise, it’s a mess). Hillary wants to be President – they will let her while publicly speaking against her. When Gowdy lost control of the Benghazi hearing – theDems voted to allow all of Hillary’s emails to be released to the public – “not the scope” the Republicans wanted it limited to”; it was the Republicans on that committee who voted against their exposure. (And Gowdy looked scared.) Gowdy cast the deciding vote not to release the exact same emails that kept the public from knowing. That every single other Republican on that panel also voted, “no,” is evidence that all of them know something they don’t wish exposed.

    She owns them (in those emails). She will not lose the Prez race because of. Except for Trump – he can beat her because he is not afraid of the info she has on the rest of those involved that will be exposed in [her] email history.

    This ceiling “story” Rubio/Cruz/RNC is perpetuating is yet only another fake story to keep something they are hiding from being exposed. Probably what they continue to hide is not even all that bad – just they won’t get re-elected and some donors may not have as much power over our government as they do now. That is good!

    Conclusion: the fake ceiling story now being circulated is another attempt at this control issue they have buried themselves into.

    Liked by 2 people

  7. jackphatz says:

    This is good!!!!! This is one to bookmark to share.


    Liked by 2 people

    • sahm2016 says:

      Really good article. He doesn’t go for the trope that Trump supporters are just angry, or that we are falling victim to a cult of personality.

      “Rhetoric from Republican candidates other than Trump consistently falls flat when it reaches the ears of Trump supporters because Trump’s supporters are a new breed. They are comprised of all of the disaffected Republicans, conservative Democrats, and conservative-leaning Independents. Trump is the voice for many who abandoned voting altogether out of disgust over all things Washington. He has caused them to come back into politics in droves. That factor is one that raises the most fear among Democrats. Trump is unpredictable in all respects but one, i.e., his ability to inspire those outside of the electorate to become a part of his political movement and vote for the first time in years, if not for the first time ever.”

      “It is the tough and direct persona of Trump that engenders support, not the extent to which he is accurate, representative of conservative thinking, or versed in every nuance of law and policy.The amazing fact is that Trump supporters often do not agree with everything he says but credit him for speaking his mind rather than engaging in tortured and illogical rhetoric that appeases critics. His supporters understand him to be a tough, no-nonsense executive who will force change in Washington, bringing about a reduction in regulation essential for the restoration of a free market and the resuscitation of the rule of law.”

      Liked by 2 people

      • incisor says:

        Trump will change the paradigm in Washington DC and eventually America as a whole. That will be the first step to get us back on track. Politics in America will never be the same once he wins. Others will take what he has done and do it on the local and state levels as well. A political revolution is what we have been searching for and (just in time) we have what we need to make it happen.

        God Bless and keep America (and Donald Trump) safe. He certainly does work in mysterious ways.

        Liked by 1 person

    • Gail Combs says:

      EXCELLENT! and yes I bookmarked it.

      Here are two more that go with it and round out the explanation..

      America’s Ruling Class an excellent discription of the Uni-party and why we hate them and they us.

      This is a comment by E. M. Smith, an economist by training and a renaissance man by nature. His favorite activity is “Dig here” He has the best explanation I have seen as to why Corporations hate capitalism and love socialism. This explains why socialism was not smothered at birth in the USA but nutured by the media, and government instead.

      Liked by 3 people

    • pjt36 says:

      When people ask why I support Donald Trump …. I’ll just forward them this link….
      An excellent summation…

      Liked by 1 person

  8. Daz says:

    Not to go conspiracy mode here but what do you make of this?

    It’s a couple of years old, but this election has got me wondering if Obama and Washington refused to accept our candidate Trump for office, would they try to declare Marshall Law and put the American people under fire.

    I mean Obama acts more like he’s a king then a president.


    • Pinkie says:

      I think you mean “martial” law. An overthrow of all existing civil authority would be a lot for even the U.S. Marshalls Service.


    • Pinkie says:

      I think you mean “martial” law. I think supplanting civil and political authority in the US would be a tall order, even for Gary Cooper


    • Sloop Don J says:

      It’s martial law


    • Gail Combs says:

      Yes, Martial law is what I have been afraid of for a long time. That is what the evidence is pointing towards and the timing is soon.

      Coal fired power plants being shut down and destroyed ==> blackouts + Obama stirring up racial tension in inner cities ==> Riots ==> Military style intervention + martial law,

      Duke Energy was setup by Globalists a couple years after the World Trade Organization was ratified. The CEO is on board the CAGW con and also ‘loaned’ Obama mega bucks for his campaign. Duke energy controls most of the electric from the Midwest to the Atlantic ocean. That is where the Coal plants are being shuttered.

      A February 2008 agreement allows the the Canadian Military to be used in the USA in times of ‘crisis’ for example. Add in the Patriot Act plus the DHS Fusion centers where local law enforcement is trained by the federal government using military weapons and brainwashed to look at Americans as extremists and ‘homegrown terrorists/

      I go into much more detail on the set-up that will lead to martial law in several comments HERE On power plant shut down HERE (The Eco-nuts are also targeting nuclear and hydroelectric.)


    • shallbe4 says:

      Today I want to cry with happiness. No doubt Obama will do everything he can to destroy Trump. But as the election draws near his power is waning. If you were a Democrat in the House of Representatives and you were up for reelection would you follow the President who has left this nation debt ridden and saddened or would you give the new President your support because that’s where the popularity lies?


  9. Daz says:

    Yes excuse me “martial” so any thoughts besides my spelling glitch?


    • jello333 says:

      Well, if they do declare martial law, the first ones they’ll come for are those who make grammar errors! 😉

      But to answer your question, back in ’08 I was saying similar things about Bush. I fully expected once Obama took office, that he would go after Bush and some of his people, and so I wondered out loud if Bush would “go quietly” or would instead do whatever he could to remain in office… i.e. martial law. But of course we now know Obama never had any intention of launching investigations, partly because HE wanted to be able to continue the garbage Bush was doing… and much worse.

      But now? Is there any reason to believe Obama WILL go full Nazi on us? Maybe… since Trump vary well MAY go after Obama in a few short months. So if Obama seriously fears this to be the case, then yeah… I would put nothing past him.


    • I have thought for years that he might – if he could find away. This current POTUS likes the power and all the trappings much too much.


  10. Daz says:

    But maybe not a tall order for Muslims immigrants being allowed in droves by Obama.


  11. Toronto Tonto says:

    The question is when they drop out. Carson staying in before the Bible Belt votes benefits Trump, because his evangelical support would help Cruz. Those voters are guaranteed to turn out. Other than unions, there’s no more reliable voting block.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. Isn’t it interesting that in votes where it is as free and fair as the corrupt and broken system allows Trumps carries the day with vast majorities and in caucuses and other bent criminally run enterprises he does “badly”?


  13. dondeg says:

    The inability to do math not only is allowing the MSM shills to say stupid stuff like this, but also why people refuse to understand that 911 was a controlled demolition. Things don’t fall at free fall for no reason. To understand “falling at free fall” one must know a little math…just a little. If Galileo could see what has become of his math, one wonders if he would have gone through the trouble of being the Donald Trump of his day and fighting all the know it alls of 1650 to push though his new ideas about gravity and math. So sad. We REALLY need to fix education in this country.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Deb says:

      Find a Truther blog to troll, your effort to smear Trump supporters as conspiracy nuts is as pointless as it is ineffective.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Those buildings were hit by two 747’s carrying ten thousand gallons of jet fuel each (if you converted the energy in the Oklahoma City bomb into jet fuel, it would amount to only fifty-one gallons. Neither building was designed for that. There are multiple people on record stating so.

      Mark Loizeaux, the president of Controlled Demolition Incorporated, a Maryland-based family business that specializes in reducing tall buildings to manageable pieces of rubble is on record stating both buildings would fall and the second tower will fall first, because it was hit lower down.

      Read the article for yourself.

      Liked by 1 person

      • dondeg says:

        Hi. I know physics and chemistry really well. If you have 4 years, get a degree in one or the other. Then come back and we can have an intelligent discussion. Thanks.


  14. Any one hear the end of Rush’s show today.
    Out in pick up putting out cotton seed cake and
    heard the 15 min before the last 10 to 15 min

    He was dead on and had a moderate (R) claimed to be any way on the phone and was telling her there is no way to meet the commie Democrat cult half way.

    He got to the point he said the R candidate had to be some one tough and brave.

    There seems to be no way that fits Rubio, did he endorse Cruz out in the open or just punt once more.



    • Deb says:

      The transcript is linked on Drudge.

      The caller claimed to be conservative.

      Rush was dead on that this is a battle for the soul of the country, and there is no compromising with the left. And the only candidate that fights the way Rush was describing as the way we need to fight is Trump.

      And everyone knows it.


  15. zucccchini says:

    I just want everyone to know, if you plan on revolting by NOT VOTING at all because YOUR GUY didn’t win the nomination….You absolutely will NOT vote for ‘so and so’ because he is establishment or he is Trump…you are not NOT voting FOR that person you dislike, you are voting FOR the Democrats..regardless of who they show up with. Make your vote AGAINST the Socialist Party …for someone you do not like. We must take this election or we will be a Socialist Society this next four years.

    Liked by 2 people

    • singtune says:

      Both Parties ARE almost totally FILLED With GLOBALIST’S~ that ARE Destroying this Country & will Continue Destroying this County~! ALL the Candidates Running for President ow ARE GLOBALIST”S~~~~except DONALD TRUMP~!

      So it does NOT Matter Which Party You Vote FOR~~~because they ARE~~~ All the SAME~!

      DONALD TRUMP Is the Only NATIONALIST, ~~~that is FOR “American Sovereignty & Our Constitution ,”~~that is Running for President in 2016~!

      Only VOTE for TRUMP~~he is the ONLY One that can SAVE this Country~!

      Liked by 1 person

    • nnud says:

      No one but Trump all others lead to the same conclusion.


  16. rutesperanza says:

    If you early vote in Tennessee like myself, you will notice Chad Blackburn listed as a delegate for Trump…Marsha Blackburns son 🙂


  17. redsequin4 says:

    It’s so disgusting, I taped Morning Joe this AM to see if they were going to discuss the Nevada caucus. I just turned it on and Joe Scarborough is going on and on about why Cruz and Rubio aren’t going after Trump. Why aren’t they hitting Trump and trying to beat him. What? Trump has been attacked by Cruz for months since their bromance ended. Trump has been attacked by Levin, Rush and the entire MSM ad nauseum. Trump has been attacked by the chattering class GOPe pundits forever. Serves me right for taping this dumb show to begin with.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. 1hear2learn says:

    Just heard local NV reporter on MSNBC saying that Republican Party source told him that there has already been over 41,000 online registrations for today’s caucus, which is 10,000 more voters than showed up te last time around and about equal to 2008 numbers. TRUMP 2016!


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