Unless something rather drastic comes out that needs to be deconstructed or analyzed, this will be the last presentation of a poll in South Carolina. Why? Well, quite simply, all of these latest polls are being too manipulated to be of any real value – Including this one.
The latest Fox News Poll (full pdf below) is data driven by Anderson Robbins Research (Democrat firm) and Shaw & Company Research (Republican firm), and not by Fox Media itself. The sub-contracts have vested financial interests/stakes in the race – hence the under and over samples evident to present an outcome that cannot be assured as objective:
The results, while following a similar path to prior polls, are too fraught with assumptions and specific weighted demos, leading to high margins of error for certain demographics.
Here’s the snapshot showing the demos, including some of the higher MOE categories as noted.
That’s because Shaw is one of the starring players in Sasha Issenberg’s e-book, “Rick Perry and His Eggheads: Inside the Brainiest Political Operation in America,” which details a groundbreaking set of experiments that Shaw and three other academics conducted inside Perry’s 2006 reelection campaign.
The Perry campaign allowed the so-called eggheads to run tests on “anything [they] could figure out how to randomize, from lawn signs to television ads,” Issenberg writes, and they assembled a provocative set of findings on which kinds of campaign tactics really work.
Fast forward five years and Perry is running for president and Shaw is one of the lead pollsters for the most influential cable network, by far, among GOP primary voters. (link)
Everything is being manipulated right now folks. It’s just best to hang back and wait for the actual elections.
These professional political PR outfits are being sub-contracted by those in corporate media who have a vested interest in selling a very specific narrative. You saw a more obvious example of that yesterday with NBC and the Wall Street Journal poll.
Here’s the full pdf of the polling result.
In addition CBS also conducted a national poll today and found the following results: