New Iowa Poll – Donald Trump 31%, Ted Cruz 23%, Marco Rubio 14% – Cruz Favorability Plummets…

Good sample size, good methodology, strong poll.  The latest poll from PPP (full pdf below) provides evidence of a commonly expressed sentiment: ‘The more Iowans see/hear of Senator Ted Cruz, the less they like him’, which makes Trump’s decision to put the Cruz smarm center of an Iowa stage even more brilliant.

The interesting internals in this poll reflect a possibility (a difficult to measure – but solid possibility) that Marco Rubio could actually upend Cruz from second place.

(Via PPP) – PPP’s new Iowa poll, conducted in partnership with Progress Iowa, continues to find Donald Trump leading in the state. He’s at 31% to 23% for Ted Cruz, 14% for Marco Rubio, 9% for Ben Carson, 4% each for Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, and Rand Paul, 3% for Carly Fiorina, 2% each for Chris Christie and John Kasich, and 1% each for Jim Gilmore and Rick Santorum.

Since we last polled Iowa two and a half weeks ago Trump and Cruz are the only candidates to see their support move by more than a couple points- Trump’s seen a 3 point gain in his support from 28% to 31%, while Cruz has seen a corresponding 3 point decline in his support from 26% to 23%.

cruz rubio Lee immigration

Cruz has seen a large drop in his favorability rating over the last few weeks, from 69/18 down to just 56/35. Trump’s continued focus on the ‘Canadian birther’ issue may really be a big part of what’s helping him at Cruz’s expense. We found on our last Iowa poll that only 32% of Republican voters thought someone born in another country should be allowed to serve as President, and attention to Cruz’s birthplace has been a constant since that last poll.

There are still a lot of votes on the table in Iowa- 31% of likely caucus goers say they could change their minds between now and Monday. Trump benefits from having the most firmly committed support though- 80% of his voters say they’re firmly committed to him compared to 71% of Cruz’s and 65% of Rubio’s among the other leading contenders. Among voters who say their mind is totally made up, Trump’s lead over Cruz grows to 12 points at 36/24.

The only other candidate whose supporters are as committed to him as Trump is Rand Paul- that should help Paul to finish 5th or maybe even slip into 4th if enough of Ben Carson’s supporters peel off to other candidates in the closing stretch. (read more)

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Breitbart-Force-Multiplier

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354 Responses to New Iowa Poll – Donald Trump 31%, Ted Cruz 23%, Marco Rubio 14% – Cruz Favorability Plummets…

  1. rebba demoss says:

    Attaching yourself to a weepy, teary eyed, illegal immigrant fund-raising, mormon conspiracy loon who pals around with liberal Huntsman and Fellow Mormon Romney.. was apparently NOT a good idea??? WHO COULD HAVE SEEN THAT COMING..i MEAN..RIGHT?
    A weepy guy who was too wacky in his conspiracy theories and seeming messiah complex for even FOX FAKE NEWS??

    its funny that simply appearing with Beck leads to a CLIFF-LIKE plunge in your polling

    Trump of bust – My recommendation is.. start making a record of all advertisers for Beck and Levin radio programs, and start emailing these ‘sponsors’ to let them know that you can no longer buy their product due to their chosen pitchman being a shill for Cruz and waging a war using any fluffed up or misrepresented case against the leading Republican candidate, Donald Trump.

    i emailed Bond Arms to let them know I WOULD NOT any longer be purchasing their interchangeable barrel pistol due to Glenn Beck being their pitchman, and due to his war against the majority of Republican voters choice for president.

    This is not going to break the bank for these shills, but until Trump can begin taking FCC action against them once he takes office, it will be fun to fill the time. Does anyone have a list of Levin and Beck complete current sponsors and endorser dealsattaching yourself to a weepy, teary eyed, illegal immigrant fundraising, mormon conspiracy loon who pals around with liberal Huntsman and Fellow Mormon Romney.. was apparently NOT a good idea??? WHO COULD HAVE SEEN THAT COMING..i MEAN..RIGHT?
    A weepy guy who was too wacky in his conspiracy theories and seeming messiah complex for even FOX FAKE NEWS??

    its funny that simply appearing with Beck leads to a CLIFF-LIKE plunge in your polling

    Trump of bust – My reccomendation is.. start making a record of all advertisers for Beck and Levin radio programs, and start emailing these ‘sponsors’ to let them know that you can no longer buy their product due to their chosen pitchman being a shill for Cruz and waging a war using any fluffed up or misrepresented case against the leading Republican candidate, Donald Trump.

    i emailed Bond Arms to let them know I WOULD NOT any longer be purchasing their interchangable barrel pistol due to Glenn Beck being their pitchman, and due to his war against the majority of Republican voters choice for president.

    This is not going to break the bank for these shills, but until Trump can begin taking FCC action against them once he takes office, it will be fun to fill the time.. Does anyone have access to a complete list of current Beck and Levin advertisers and endorser deals?

    Liked by 3 people

  2. myrightpenguin says:

    Cruz’s favorability drop will be attributed to Trump, but we know it’s more than that. Cruz simply had less name recognition and the more people see the more they don’t like (smarm). So tired of seeing Cruzbots clutch at straws based on where his favorability was a month back to help them believe he can win the main election against the Dems (for which he has no chance).

    Liked by 3 people

    • rajabear1 says:

      Scanning around on all the various right leaning websites the last few days, there seems to be a shift. Seems like many previous cruz supporters (not the diehard fanatics, mind you) are not liking what they’re seeing in the press, but mostly from other commenter’s info and links. A lot to here, but other sites too, revealing the un-vetted Texas senator.

      Totally different from what his narrative has been, as we are all aware of here. Probably turned a lot of people off as beck has been doing his rounds on all the different media sources decrying his devotion to cruz then bashing Trump. The general public, right and left, REALLY don’t like him. Too bad for cruz that beck is too obtuse to realize this fact. Teeheeheehee!

      Seems like it is eroding away his high % of un-solidified base.

      Liked by 1 person

    • shallbe4 says:

      Look what Donald Missed
      FOX News and Google invited a radical Muslim activist, a Bernie Sanders supporter, a Black Lives Matter supporter and a Mexican illegal immigrant to the debate to confront Donald Trump.

      Liked by 2 people

      • JunieG says:

        Did they ask a question of any other candidate?

        Like

      • redsequin4 says:

        Donald saw this train wreck a mile away. Fox news gave him an out with the dumb statement by Fox about Putin etc.

        He’s the frontrunner and had nothing to gain being at the debate where he would have been attacked relentlessly. Art of the Deal, know when to walk away.

        Like

  3. tempo150101 says:

    What is it they say about the five stages of grief? It’s the same thing with Trump when he pulls one of these stunts. First you cringe. The second stage you start laughing. The third stage is to get scared that he finally did it – this is what’s going to sink him. The fourth stage you come around and say, “You know, he has a good point.” Finally, the fifth stage is where the GOPe and the medias heads explode that voters have come around to agree with him and the stunt didn’t sink him.

    Liked by 2 people

    • owentt says:

      Still, I would have liked to see Trump be strategic here. With a lead in the last four days, it’s risky to try a maneuver like leaving the debates for an independent event. Trump could have rested on his laurels and won.

      Even if he comes out ahead, I’m going to wish he’d just played it safe.

      But then I’m not the one who’s running for leader of the free world. I don’t want the job or the headaches.

      I hope he invited Bernie to the event along with Huck and Santorum. I bet you could raise a lot of cash for disabled vets with a fun Bernie-Trump $20-a-vote straw poll or a quick two question fun debate expo.

      Liked by 1 person

      • bnjohanson says:

        After reading your thoughts and striving to formulate some semblance of reasoning from your point(s), my guess is “the job or the headaches” would likely be the least of your worries if indeed you were to change your mind in “running for leader of the free world.”

        Let me preface however, I do appreciate access to your thoughts and despite my lacking ability to formulate any value…that is, unless you’re from Iowa.

        Liked by 1 person

    • Mike says:

      Stepped over a line, my aazz. Fox even has a female Moosie activist to lay landmines and perhaps some other suicidal gambit. Cross ex with an illegal for 60 second answers. Baaa haaaa haaaa, in your dreams Murdoch.

      So pathetic when Bill O-Reilly was trying to guilt trip Trump back into a kill zone, that was politically hotter than the Roman forum on the ides of March (43 BC). BORing.

      Like

  4. Pinkie says:

    The Leni Riefenstahl imagery notwithstanding, this is a very interesting analysis. From one of the few liberal pundits that has been taking Trump seriously.

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-trumph-of-the-will

    Liked by 3 people

  5. Searkreb says:

    Someone please tweet not to fall for rush Limbaughs ploy. At the end of his show today he was acting as if president trump might actually be at the debate. He said it might be a big surprise. My wife th I nks that was to get people to check in and thus boost the ratings!

    Liked by 1 person

    • NJF says:

      Yea MSNBC is saying as well. Even going as far as outlining how quickly an additional podium can be set up, and lighting reset. According to idiot face (his name escapes me at the moment) it would only take 20 minutes.

      Like

      • Mike says:

        20 minutes ?? That long I would have expected under 5 minutes for such anticipated preparations. Must be using uneducated, non-English speaking help and supervision.

        Like

    • TheTorch says:

      Yes he is being mischievous.

      Like

    • WeThePeople2016 says:

      Yes, someone told me that. I don’t listen to him much anymore. Rush is very good friends with Ailes. Also, he wants to help out Cruz in that people tune in to see Pastor Ted.

      Like

  6. RM says:

    I bet your wife is right!

    Like

  7. Susan M. says:

    Haha, Jessie Waters said Bernie’s Hair!! Haha. Almost slipped there.

    Like

    • bnjohanson says:

      I think this all merely confirms that there isn’t a political professional in the World that isn’t absolutely confounded by Trump….I think this realization allows the feeling of, “refreshing” to never die….

      Like

  8. Howie says:

    Hillary just announced her 1st Supreme Court appointment. Barak HUSSEIN Obama.I think Trump should counter with Ted Nugent!

    Liked by 2 people

  9. LoreneTN says:

    Shocker (to me), my husband said today that he hopes Trump’s poll numbers go up by 10 points with this move and him standing up to the media…and my husband is not a Trump supporter (not quite, not yet…soon.)

    Liked by 4 people

  10. Howie says:

    What is the deal with the Cruz Bots? Why?

    Liked by 1 person

    • I think it is an ego problem – they can’t let go, can’t admit they were wrong.

      They overlook the Founding Intent meaning of Natural Born Citizen and supplant this requirement with Cruz’s qualifications, legitimate and otherwise.

      In short, they place Qualifications First, Eligibility Second.

      Like

  11. rajabear1 says:

    Oh my! Reince Priebus is on cnn Wolf. He looks…BAD! Death warmed over. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. Maybe have best bud Paul Ryan can give him a pick me up massage or something. Dang.

    Liked by 2 people

  12. NHVoter says:

    On CNN just now Reince Priebus said that it would be positive if Trump were on the ballot because he could put states like NY & PA in play. Very interesting.

    Liked by 4 people

  13. TeaForAll says:

    All this false hype that Trump might be at the debate is nothing more, then to boost FOX RATINGS. DO NOT FALL FOR THIS. AND DO NOT TURN FOX ON. Trump is a man of honor, and will not be at the debate.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Rene says:

      It is definitely false hype. They are so transparent.

      Like

      • shallbe4 says:

        Fox had an interesting attack on Donald Trump had he shown up.
        FOX News and Google invited a radical Muslim activist, a Bernie Sanders supporter, a Black Lives Matter supporter and a Mexican illegal immigrant to the debate to confront Donald Trump. Donald made the right move. The rally was terrific.

        Liked by 1 person

    • Malatrope says:

      Someone today said that it only takes five seconds for the system to mark you down as having watched the debate, thus increasing Fox’s revenue. Do not even stop by to laugh at them!

      Liked by 1 person

  14. Ben Ferguson has been a has been to long.

    Like

  15. fred says:

    Hannity used that on his radio show. Tune in to see if he shows up. Weak Sean very weak. I think your involved with Sammons at FOX… OHOH Sean that’s bad news buddy….

    Like

  16. beijingyank says:

    Iowa has a lot to lose if Trump doesn’t win big.
    The governor of Iowa knows.
    Trump 2016!

    Like

  17. redsequin4 says:

    The Des Moines Register poll comes out on Saturday. They can’t stand DT and I suspect their poll will show a really tight race between Cruz and Trump, which the other recent polls don’t. If that’s the case they’ll chalk it up to DT losing support for not attending the borefest.

    Like

  18. mpmp2015 says:

    Clearly Trump’s veterans counter-programming event was literally a last minute decision and the whole event was cobbled together within 48 hours and it certainly showed. There wasn’t a whole lot of sticky content, but he really wanted to focus the event for the vets. If Trump really wanted to do it seriously, he would have gotten a stadium and filled it with 20,000 supporters. That would have gotten more coverage. However, I think he felt he needed to hold the event in Iowa and not another state, that really limited his venue options at such a late date.

    It was certainly a HUGE gamble Trump did days before the caucus, but since Fox News gave him an “out” with their ridiculous PR statement mocking him, he decided it was a good reason to skip the debate. There were numerous times he said in interviews the last several days that his last debate was his strongest one, always alluding to “especially the last debate” when he talks about winning all the 6 debates. In his mind, he wants to go out on top with his best debate performance before the caucus and not get sandbagged by Fox News. He know they are out to get him again. If it wasn’t Fox News moderating, I’m sure he would have participated, but probably grudgingly because he still feels his last debate performance was the best. We shall see what happens next Monday whether his gamble paid off.

    Go Trump!!!

    Like

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