Key State Florida Poll: Donald Trump 32%, Beats Home State Rubio and Bush Combined…

A poll from Florida Overtime Politics (pdf below) shows a snapshot of Florida in January.  Donald Trump leads with 32%, Cruz 21% and Rubio 18%:

FLORIDA – Donald Trump sports a comfortable 11 point lead in the Sunshine State, besting Ted Cruz 32-21%. Marco Rubio, who is from Florida, picks up 18% of the vote.

While most states, especially the ones that vote before March 15th, are competitive for Cruz and Rubio in the sense that they can at least win some delegates, Florida issues all of theirs to the person with the most votes. Finishing 2nd or beyond gets you 0 delegates, while 1st place gets 99. Right now, in order for either of them to win anything in Florida, they would have to un-seat Trump from the driver’s chair.

Marco Rubio holds a very large advantage with the Hispanic vote, beating Jeb Bush by 24 points. The popularity of Rubio among Hispanics in Florida is why he is comparatively high in the Presidental Percentages updates, when compared to Ted Cruz. This is primarily because Rubio has a better chance than most of the other candidates of winning Florida during a general election,

By the time the March 15th primaries get here, there will have already been 1,025 delegates awarded, all of them proportionally, but with varying threshold requirements. On the 15th, an additional 361 will be awarded, pushing the total to 1,386 (out of ~2,470). For lower-tier candidates who cannot mathematically get to 1,236 (the number required to win the nomination), who are still in it, it’s game over. The magic number is 152 – any fewer delegates than this, and they cannot win.

As it stands, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio will all probably have over 152 delegates after the 15th, while any of the other candidates will be lucky to have more than 1/3rd of that number.  (read more)

 

trump landslide

trump landslide 2

This entry was posted in Donald Trump, Election 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, media bias, Ted Cruz. Bookmark the permalink.

72 Responses to Key State Florida Poll: Donald Trump 32%, Beats Home State Rubio and Bush Combined…

  1. stringy theory says:

    I love this poll and love that NY Slimes headline. Jebita is polling lower than a snake’s belly in a wagon rut. The hispanics like Rubio now but would probably flip to the democrap in the general if Rubio would be the nominee. Of course he won’t. It will be Trump by a landslide.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. Wendy Forward says:

    Am I right to be worried about the Presidential Percentages on the right of the page-HRC 50 percent? There are a lot of NY snowbirds in FLA and we all remember the 2000 craziness…

    Like

    • sundance says:

      Are you speaking in riddles.?

      Liked by 4 people

      • Reality Wins says:

        I think she is talking about the voter fraud where many voted in both states.

        Liked by 2 people

      • Not deliberately, sorry if it seems that way. I saw a list on the right side of the page with the story about this poll, “Presidential Percentages” which showed 50 percent for HRC and 19 for Trump. It bothered me-I brought snowbirds up because they are usually Jewish liberals who have retired to FLA and still love Hillary. Perhaps I used the wrong term. These were the people that cause a lot of the trouble in 2000. I have read allegations that those same people who winter in FLA often vote in both FLA and NY, NJ, MASS, etc. and usually for the Dems. Hope this explains it.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Rebel Mope says:

          In a primary, usually Dems vote for Dems, Republicans vote for RINOs. You don’t have to worry about democrats until November, usually.

          Liked by 1 person

          • Ann Woodward says:

            What I worry about is voters not taking the primary voting seriously. That’s where the nominee is determined. I feel everyone who posts on a “Trump” blog plans to vote in November, but if they don’t to the primary voting the GOPe will take the results with “bunching” or ?splitting” or by busing in thousands of non-valid voters. How can these folks who don’t normally vote primaries realize that they MUST be registered Republican AHEAD of time to vote Trump in the primary. I feel like that is a weak link in the Trump supporters chain. Any thoghts?

            Liked by 1 person

    • Josh says:

      I don’t think worry is right or wrong. I think it’s rather useless though. (Not that I don’t engage in it.)

      Like

    • KBR says:

      I wouldn’t worry. Trump has a very good chance of taking NY anyway. So those double voters might double vote for Trump anyway.
      Not that I encourage that, but if that’s their habit they might do it whoever they choose.

      Liked by 1 person

      • sammyhains says:

        The South was solidly for Democrats until Reagan came along and caused a total realignment. It was just taken for granted that the South would vote Democrat before then, just as it is taken for granted that it will vote Republican now.

        I believe that Donald Trump is going to have a Reagan effect on the Great Lake states. It is taken for granted that Democrats win Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. I believe Trump will win all of these states, and they will not go back.

        Like

    • stringy theory says:

      IMO, using money appropriated by Congress for defense purposes to house illegals would be an illegal misappropriation of funds.

      Liked by 6 people

    • hocuspocus13 says:

      Is that why he pink slipped the military 🇺🇸

      Liked by 1 person

    • JeremyR says:

      Its fine with me for him to use military assets to house them. Start with Johnson Island in the Pacific. Once it gets full, divert the boats to Midway and after that to Bikini Atoll. If distance is a problem, the Navy has a gunnery base in Puerto Rico. The advantage there besides close proximity, is it would never get over full. Other possibilities include ISC Kodiak. Perfect for middle eastern folks. The snow looks and acts much like sand, only colder.

      Like

    • sammyhains says:

      It’s like the 3rd Amendment in reverse.

      Like

  3. Josh says:

    I hope it helps that Florida’s governor is backing Mr. Trump.

    Liked by 3 people

  4. Sentient says:

    They may have to change the rules so that Florida delegates are awarded proportionately.

    Like

  5. Sanj says:

    What if Cruz renounced his citizenship 18 months ago…..from Pakistan? Would that change things?

    Liked by 1 person

  6. oldtoenail says:

    I just heard Rubio on Faux News say that he would cancel all of the Obama executive orders that were unconstitutional. What an idiot. He doesn’t have to cancel them if they are unconstitutional. They would already be void. I think he meant ” I really will not change anything Obama has done”. “I will talk a lot but I have my own slimy way of saying things that mean different things than what you the public think”.

    Liked by 6 people

    • stringy theory says:

      Executive orders are supposed to have some constitutional/legal basis whereas Executive Actions do not. I hope Trump cancels all of the executive orders and actions imposed by the little dictator. Rubio really screwed that up.

      Liked by 1 person

  7. Rebel Mope says:

    Sound the Drudge Siren. It’s over. Trump is finished. Bluto? Bueller? Baghdad Bob?
    Planned Parenthood just endorsed Hillary. After everything the republicans did two weeks ago to keep all the democrats happy, the ingrates go and do this. It’s stunning.
    https://t.co/f6whhsjbFA

    Liked by 3 people

  8. Pingback: The Building Blocks of the Coming Trump Landslide Primary Victory - Daily Pundit

  9. Ono says:

    I’m calling BS on this poll!

    Kasich 1% The only way that could happen is if they polled 100 people and Kasich was one of them.

    Liked by 1 person

    • BobW462 says:

      I’m calling BS on any poll that gives the three amigos (Bush, Cruz, Rubio) a combined total of more than 30%.

      Liked by 3 people

      • 1hear2learn says:

        As silly as it sounds, I think Rubio’s numbers will actually drop over this stupid boot “scandel”. Yes, that is the sad state of many in the electorate these days, but hey, if that’s what it takes to bring his numbers down, well that’s just fine by me. 😉

        Liked by 1 person

      • singtune says:

        I can even Imagine WHO said they would vote for Rubio here in Florida~! No One here on the West Coast likes him at all~!~~~ But then i again I do Not live in Miami~!

        Liked by 1 person

  10. Doodahdaze says:

    A vote for Cruz, is a vote for the establishment.



    Liked by 5 people

  11. Trent Telenko says:

    I’m surprise people missed the fact that the cross tabs show Trump with 39% of low income ($10K to $25K), black males in Florida.

    That is DOOM for Democrats in the general election.

    Liked by 5 people

  12. El_Flaco says:

    Bush and Rubio are both high enough in the polls that neither will be dropping out which is good news. If Bush withdrew his candidacy Rubio would probably be in the mid 20s, close enough to Trump that the mega donors would gamble a huge amount of money to try and topple Trump.

    Liked by 2 people

  13. Raffaella says:

    ALL THESE POLLS ARE WRONG. Although favorable to Trump, these polls do not count the dem/independent cross over vote and the new voters who have never participated in the past. It grossly underestimates Trump support and overestimate all others.

    Liked by 4 people

  14. tomholsinger says:

    Note that this poll shows Trump getting his greatest support in Florida (39%) from lower income black males. They seem to be the most willing to tell pollsters that they support Trump. Look up the term “Bradley Effect” on Wikipedia.

    Trump’s messages about immigration and jobs seem to have gotten through to at least one core group of the Democratic coalition. Next November could be very interesting.

    Liked by 3 people

  15. Ben Carson: I’ll Reconsider Candidacy If I Don’t Finish Top 3 in 2 of 4 First States

    Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/ben-carson-will-quit-campaign/2016/01/07/id/708610/#ixzz3wbeMFrbb

    Liked by 1 person

  16. sam says:

    I don’t like it that teddy cruze is always around 18-20% nipping at Trump’s heels. Trump to 50% soon please

    Liked by 2 people

  17. rd says:

    The numbers in the GOP Squares graphic total up to 106%???

    Did someone mess up the numbers?

    Like

  18. JoeS says:

    I have been out the mix the last few weeks taking care of some family and business matters that are dominating me So MUCH that it is difficult for me to clean the house and change the cat litter.

    I do not believe that Trump is at 32%. I think he is AT LEAST 40%. BUT:

    Sundance, since I have been “away,” as described above, I have not heard your opinion on the following. You have previously said that it is not time to take out Cruz. I have not observed and opinion from you recently on this, but I have been preoccupied. Is it time yet?

    I WANT TO TAKE THIS SUCKER OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Like

  19. NHVoter says:

    Like

  20. justfactsplz says:

    Fellow Floridians. We got this. Let’s get to work. 99 delegates for Trump. We Will do this.

    Like

  21. stevendufresne says:

    Trump just retweeted the Treehouse! If he reads this blog, he knows it all!

    Like

  22. ZurichMike says:

    I still don’t understand the staying power of Cruz after a couple of weeks of being pummeled after his GOPe / God’s Chosen One mask slipped.

    Like

  23. I am so honored my tweet with your story was re-tweeted by our future President Donald J. Trump

    Like

  24. eastcoasterx2 says:

    I live about as far south in Florida as you can get before diving in for the swim to Cuba. I realize it’s a small bubble in the grand scheme of things but I have to wonder how Rubio polls so high. Between the locals and the Miami weekenders, I don’t see much support for him. Surprisingly, the Cubans from Miami are the most vocal about their dislike for him. They describe him as dishonest and insincere. They have a Cuban word they call him but I won’t even attempt at butchering the spelling. 😉

    Almost every business owner from Miami I’ve spoken with supports Trump. The common reason for their support is always the same, they don’t think he’s a savior with all the answers but they are confident he will hire the people who do.

    We also started seeing our annual Snowbird migration just before Christmas. From the Northwest to the New England states, the support I hear for Trump is very encouraging!

    Like

  25. Mark says:

    Donald Trump for the Win…

    Like

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