In many of the Ebola pandemic discussions, people have talked about the exponential growth of ebola (and other micro organisms). I have tried to explain that it is often easier to visualize – and understand – if the growth cycle is understood in logarithmic terms.
Contributor “Frozen Patriot” does an admirable job of explaining the differences between interpreting the growth in exponential or logarithmic terms.
After the WRS post, I have linked to some self-study modules from entry level university courses if you want to try modelling and predicting the pandemic potential timeline yourself.
Reposted from Western Rifle Shooters Blog:
…As with physics, economics, and chemistry, math just is. Math does not have an agenda. Math does not vary with political whims or income levels or normalcy bias. If you disagree with the mathematical analysis above (except for the extrapolation), please don’t shoot the messenger or dismiss it.
“July 4, 2016 …. Game Over”.
Now, if that hasn’t raised the hair on your head enough, go read Frozen Patriot’s entire post.
Still an unbeliever? Try your hand at various scenarios by plugging in the known data released by WHO and the CDC:
https://miller-lab.net/MillerLab/protocols/general-bacteriology/calculating-growth-rate/
another easy explanation to understand the raw potential for disaster:
https://mathbench.umd.edu/modules/popn-dynamics_exponential-growth/page15.htm
No worries. They’re from the government, and they’re here to help.