Every state matters.  But this one is gonna be HUGE.   Florida has, for the past several election cycles, been a key state for national political success and once again Florida is going to be center stage in how things shape up.   We have several Treepers on the ground in Florida including Gatormom, Ms. Tee, JRD and yours truly.

The national GOP ‘establishment’ is going to go all out in their support of a RINO charge into Florida.   Primarily they will focus on the I-4 corridor which runs from Tampa (West), to Orlando (central), to Daytona Beach (East).    Second in importance they will focus on I-95 from Jacksonville (North) to Miami (South) along the East coast, and then lastly on I-75 corridor from Georgia border (North) to Naples (South) along the West coast.

Many people do not recognize the substantial influence of the Tea Party(s) in Florida.  It’s big, well-organized, and effective.    In 2010 the Republican Party benefitted from the motivated Tea Party electorate.    However, the establishment GOP was also delivered some significant defeats with their ‘chosen establishment candidates’ like Bill McCollum (former AG and gubernatorial candidate 2010) who was eliminated in the primary mostly because of his affiliation to establishment Decepticons.   Then there was the establishment GOP support for former senate candidate Governor Charlie Crist which dried up quickly but only because facing defeat he turned independent and then lost to Tea Party supported Marco Rubio.

Pam Bondi (current AG) and Col. Allen West were two more politicians  who would not have won without the significant Tea Party support.   And it is very disappointing to see Bondi now endorsing Decepticon Mitt Romney.   This is equivalent to Gov. Nikki Haley strangely supporting Romney in SC.   It is more than likely that Romney central has deposited some supportive funds into the campaign account of Bondi much like they did with Haley.

Florida is a very large state, with a very large and very diverse electorate.   Former Republican Governor Jeb Bush is a well-regarded Floridian and did an exceptional job as governor during his two terms.   However, it is not unexpected that he would now be in a tenuous endorsement position and choose to sit on the sidelines.   Had Romney won South Carolina, the ‘establishment’ Jeb probably would have endorsed the establishment candidate Mitt Romney even though he knows a considerable portion of Florida would have dismissed it.   Having seen Newt Gingrich dominate in SC I’m sure it made Jeb nervous about being on the wrong side of history (like Nikki Haley).

Romney has been spending a huge amount of money in Florida for over a month.  TV ads from both his campaign and his supportive SuperPacs are running every day in every market.   In addition, direct mailers, which are very expensive, have been used to attack Newt Gingrich.    Every single ad and mailer so far has been a negative ad against Gingrich.

In addition to State Attorney General Pam Bondi, the Tampa Tribune also endorsed Romney last week but neither should carry much weight.   

The two endorsements that would carry weight are Marco Rubio and Allen West.

It will be interesting to watch how vitriolic the attacks against Newt will be from the establishment GOP now that Gingrich has a solid win under his belt.    This is the exact type of planetary alignment where someone like Karl Rove, who learned his manipulative craft at the knee of the master – Lee Atwater, could wave his wand of influence.   Rove knows how to plant information, both negative and positive, in such a manner that it can drive an emotional response.  

Be on the lookout for American Crossroads PAC activity.