Indiana has some of the most ardent laws forbidding unsolicited voter contact which eliminates most polling organizations from conducting organized polling. As a direct result there have been almost no polls conducted in the state, leaving a great deal of speculation about the state of the race.
Additionally, there’s a transparency of motive within the political media to jump over the April 26th primary states and focus attention on Indiana (May 3rd) to frame a narrative of larger political interest.
Indiana has clearly become the best hope for candidate Ted Cruz sell his position that he can stop Donald Trump from achieving the 1,237 delegates needed for an outright nomination victory. Ergo Politico delivers an article showing some “private polling” information that helps maintain interest in the storyline:
One survey, completed on April 12, had Ted Cruz and Donald Trump in a statistical tie: 32 percent to 32 percent, with John Kasich, governor of neighboring Ohio, a distant third, with 14 percent.
A second survey also had Trump and Cruz tied, but that was a change from three weeks earlier, when Cruz had led outside the margin of error.
A third survey, from last week, had Trump ahead of Cruz, outside the margin of error. (link)
For those on the outside looking in – Indiana has always been somewhat of a political odd duck. In a general sense the Indiana electorate seem to consistently value fiscal conservative governance as exemplified by the strong support for previous governor Mitch Daniels, and somewhat more moderately for current governor Mike Pence.
The basic sense of Indiana’s republican political success revolves around a Ward Cleaver type of political figure with traditionally fiscal conservative values. However, there is also a strong strain of ideological social conservatism amid a significant portion of the same republican base.
As a consequence it’s not surprising to see a larger state electorate torn between the pragmatic and competent executive appeal of Donald Trump, and the more ideological leanings of Ted Cruz.
The Club for Growth Action Fund announced a $1.5 million ad buy in the state on Thursday. “There is now no state more important than Indiana for electing Cruz and keeping Trump from reaching 1,237,” said Club president David McIntosh.
Indiana votes on May 3 and delivers 30 delegates to its statewide winner, plus three delegates to the winner of each of the state’s nine congressional districts. (link)
Current governor Mike Pence is perhaps best known among conservative activists for his pro-life position while he was a favorite congressman. In 2010 and 2011 Pence was widely talked about as a future presidential prospect, and many believe his decision to run for governor was spurred in part by an interest in positioning himself for a later presidential bid.
Governor Pence has been largely uncontroversial, staying out of national hot-button issues; and like his predecessor he plays the role of Governor Ward Cleaver very well.