Bloomberg released a poll today (full pdf below) that is markedly different from their traditional polling methodology.   The poll is a representative sample of 802 random Ohio ‘likely voters’ with no additional weighting, smoothing or adjustments by the pollster, it’s just raw voter data for the sample.  The result:

What makes this specific media poll interesting is that media polls rarely (can’t remember any) present raw unfiltered likely voter data without applying their own weights, and modifying the results to fit the pollsters’ assumptions of who will show up on election day.
This poll doesn’t weight anything or assume/project a specific turnout ratio. (more…)

In an effort to keep the Daily Open Thread a little more open topic we are going to start a new daily thread for “2016 Presidential Politics”. Please use this thread to post anything relating to the Presidential Race and/or any of the candidates therein.

This thread will refresh daily and appear above the Open Discussion Thread.

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but DELIVER US FROM EVIL.
For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen †

There are two important ratios to remember 65/35 and 55/45.

Throughout the past year those who have followed political opinion will note the consistent and reoccurring appearance of these two sets of statistical ratios.

♦ First, a variant of the ratio “65/35” shows up in random series of obscure polling questions done by alternative or social media.  Three examples include two Bravo Network broadcasts asking for voter input, and another from data tech “Zip App“.
The Bravo Network were so stunned by the (65/35) results of their initial poll – they actually repeated it just to make sure.

… “the results of this poll even more surprising is that the demographics of Bravo viewers are far different than the average stereotype of Donald Trump supporter” (link)

However, it should also be noted “65/35” shows up again in the NBC poll daddy result from the Commander-in-Chief forum. (more…)

Today in Aston Pennsylvania candidate Donald Trump outlined an innovative plan to bring federal tax policies in line with the needs of today’s families.  The plan is not for the wealthy, but rather specifically targeted to provide the biggest benefit to working and middle-class families.
According to the proposal, the plan is needed because child care expenses are now one of the largest expenses in many families.  This complicates a family’s decision on how to care for young children.
The Trump tax reforms and policy proposals will allow a family to make the choice of whether a parent should work outside the home or not without bias from the tax code. Having employed and empowered thousands of women at every level throughout his entire career, Donald Trump understands the needs of the modern workforce.
Here’s a summary of the outline:

Proposals Contained In Mr. Trump Child Care Plan
PROPOSAL #1 : The Trump plan will rewrite the tax code to allow working parents to deduct from their income taxes child care expenses for up to four children and elderly dependents. (more…)

CNN’s Jake Tapper interviews Trump campaign spokesperson Katrina Pierson and tries, rather pathetically, to continue maintaining Clinton’s “deplorable” narrative.

Candidate Donald Trump is joined with his daughter Ivanka Trump in Aston Pennsylvania this evening holding an event at the Aston Community Center.  The event is not open to the public; however, you can watch the live stream here beginning at 7:30pm EDT:
Live Stream Link – Alternate Live Stream #1 – Alternate Live Stream #2

Platte River Network was the group hired by Hillary Clinton and her team to manage the personal server hosting the private communications of Clinton’s staff and key officials.
In today’s congressional hearing Representative Jim Jordan walks through the timeline and the recently disclosed communication from Platte River where realizations surfaced they were being instructed to cover-up some “shady shit”.

Truth in Headlines – Attribution

Intro speaker at Trump rally in Iowa tells crowd: “You are one good looking basket of deplorables.” (link)

[ Transcript ]  Thank you. It is so great to be back in Iowa. Spending time in your state has been one of the great joys of this campaign.
Together, we are going to win Iowa in November — and we are going to win the White House, and Make America Great Again.
The White House will become the People’s House. We will tackle and fix the problems that have gone unsolved for years.
We are going to fix our crumbling infrastructure, renegotiate our disastrous trade deals, free children from failing government schools, eliminate government waste, and create a fair, simple and efficient tax code that adds millions of new jobs.
(more…)