Wheat is an essential grain harvest in the overall food chain. Winter wheat is planted in October and harvested the following June and July, however, the U.S. crop this year is in a tenuous position because of severe drought in the plains. Kansas represents about a quarter of the U.S. harvest and is currently suffering through an extended dry season.
Last week, “Kansas Governor Laura Kelly declared a drought emergency, warnings and watches for every county in Kansas on Thursday due to dry conditions causing high fire danger.” (link)
We need to keep an eye on this, and it would be wise to make proactive preparations now for the possibility of a severe shortage. This potential is what has driven the price of wheat futures, and when combined with the issues in Europe’s largest wheat producer, Russia, there’s a very real possibility of a global shortage of wheat.
The early March warnings are beginning to become more important. “The world has grown hugely dependent on Ukraine and Russia for their wheat, a crop used in everything from bread to couscous and noodles. The nations account for a quarter of global trade. They are also cheap suppliers, which makes their exports favorites for importers in the Middle East and North Africa, including in Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat buyer.” (link)
Back to the U.S.A:
March 14 (Reuters) – A worsening drought in the southern U.S. Plains is threatening the region’s winter wheat crop just as the Ukraine crisis dents global supplies.
Some farmers in southwestern Kansas, the top U.S. wheat producing state, have not received much measurable rain or snow since October. Winter wheat is planted in autumn, lays dormant in winter and begins sending up green shoots in spring. Proper soil moisture is critical at this stage for the crop to thrive.
More than half of Kansas was classified as under severe drought or worse as of March 8, the driest conditions since 2018, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center. Severe drought is also covering three-quarters of Oklahoma and more than two-thirds of Texas, both of which also are large wheat producers.
Water woes follow a freak December windstorm that swept away some topsoil in parts of the U.S. wheat belt, damaging some cropland.
U.S. hard red winter wheat represents nearly half of the country’s overall wheat production and is milled mainly for bread flour. A reduced crop could further stoke food inflation that the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said was the highest-ever in February. The FAO’s Food Price Index averaged 140.7 points last month, a 20.7% increase from a year earlier and surpassing the 2011 record.
U.S. wheat futures soared to the highest levels in 14 years early last week as the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed two of the world’s largest wheat exporters out of the market, leaving importing countries scrambling for replacement sources.
Meanwhile, the winter wheat crop in China, the world’s largest producer of the grain, is expected to be among the worst ever after heavy rainfall delayed planting. (read more)
We need to watch this one closely, and it would not be a bad idea to purchase some of your own bread making supplies a little earlier for storage.
Wheat, corn and soybeans are the foundation of the U.S. food supply. They are primarily used as ingredients in processed foods, oils, and are fed to the cattle, hogs, and poultry that supply meat and eggs for the American diet. When those grain harvests go up in price, the downstream increase in price is far reaching.
My Japanese mother-in-law recalls the days of WW2 and after in Japan when inflation soared and food supplies were scarce. “Just eat less,” she acerbically told my spouse a few days ago, “when this happens again”. Mark Twain’s rhymes of history come to mind.
Drought + the completely man-made market devolution greatly disquiets me, with my family background in cattle ranching going back 4 generations.
“And my God will meet all your needs according to the riches of his glory in Christ Jesus.”—Philippians 4:19. Best to come to believe, or keep on believing, now.
Farming and ranching in Kansas since before the Civil War (same land, albeit expanded drastically). It has been worse. ’83 was worse, and ’08 was worse in terms of soil conditions. Granted ’83 was before my time, but my grandfather talked about it as the worst he had seen since he was a kid in the early 30s. Unfortunately he passed away 2 months ago, or I’d be gleaning any info from him I could.
Several of the last few years, the wheat was dumped on paved parking lots and covered with plastic because the elevators were full.
America has 25 billion bushels grain storage capacity.
Yes, but first, is there actually wheat in storage, and second, who exactly would get the wheat? US citizens or Chinese or Ukrainian or anybody but US citizens?
This makes me wonder what Canada’s situation with wheat will be, since the US is a major customer.
Canada grows mostly spring wheat, I believe. It is soft wheat, used for pastry and non-chewy goods.
Canada grows other grains as well, and exports to China as well as the US. Think wheat, barley, rye as one big happy family from Saskatchewan to a little south of High level, AB.
China is the world’s largest grower of wheat. They have already projected this will be the worst harvest in living memory.
Food shortages are coming. Buy your vegetable seeds now. There will be shortages.
China is going around the world buying up farmland because it needs more than domestic production will provide to feed its people…and also control what everyone else has access to. If anyone esle gets access at all.
Time to expand our own backyard gardens of edibles. For as long as that is allowed.
From everything I have read, Bill Gates is the largest owner of American farmland. Even if he sold all of it to China, they can’t move it.
They don’t need to move the land….only what it produces….to the exclusion of the locals.
Projecting the Future Trade of Virtual Water
“Crops require water to grow. By importing water-intensive crops, countries essentially bring in a natural resource in the form of virtual water.”
https://www.pnnl.gov/news-media/projecting-future-trade-virtual-water
Yep, US citizens farming on US soil, but having all of the food they raise sent to China because the land is owned by China or Gates.
While the farmers’ families go hungry.
That is a parallel to the potato famine in Ireland.
There is a clip over at @010Bravo , showing Brennan talking to the C.F.R. gathering about weather modification.
Stratospheric – Atmosphere -Injection or S.A.I.
How would YOU make the first inscription on the Georgia Guide Stones a reality if you were in power ?
” Keep Humanity Under 500 Million ”
A few years back they released the film – The Hunger Games.
( they tell you in advance )
Trying to add to extra stores as should everyone. Price increases on everything makes it hard. Keep at it treepers!
I already prepared ahead by purchasing 250 lbs of various flour types (white, whole wheat, durham, etc) then vacuum sealing and freezing it all.
Me also but added rice along with the flour.
Add beans as well.
Cool, but why not stockpile whole grains plus a Vitamix or a grain mill? They’d keep much longer than pre-ground flour, and freshly-ground flour and cornmeal are excellent. Last year I was given some canned whole wheat from the 1970s. I ground it into whole wheat flour and it was fine.
Stockpiling a goodly amount of dried chickpeas (“The Poor Man’s Meat”) might be wise as well for the same reason(s).
Don’t you have deer?
Back in my granola-eating days, I hung out with breastfeeding until 5, organic food only, co-op buying mothers and I too ground my own flour with a Vitamix. Thanks for the reminder, I have 5 lbs of wheat berries in my freezer from the 90s.
Yes, the whole grain stores better and more easily than flour.
I also suggest a non-electric grain mill. I would be surprised if the electric grid will continue to function reliably.
We are now in an active war, the Globalists against true Americans. They are even more ruthless than the Nazis.
Have solar for the freezers?
You can buy a propane or nat gas freezer.
https://www.lehmans.com/category/gas-refrigerators-freezers
and when the power goes out?
You can be sure they’ll blame Trump
They might even let him win the next election just so they can blame him for everything Jo-Jo has thoroughly f’d up.
Yep, I’ve thought that myself.
Trunp, Russia, Jan 6th insurrectionists, etc. Everyone but themselves.
As usual.
They irrigate most of their wheat in Kansas. Not sure how much of a factor that will be.
Only in western Kansas. Those of us in the east generally don’t irrigate our wheat.
100th Meridian is the traditional dividing line.
North West of Salina we don’t irrigate (Lincoln County)
Don’t irrigate in Mitchell County either.
Not in North Central Kansas. We depend on mother nature.
Rain makes grain. Drought makes hunger.
Yep – Lincoln County here. All by the power of God
Yes.
God grows all the food. He just lets us help.
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/national-climate-assessment-great-plains%E2%80%99-ogallala-aquifer-drying-out
My grandfather’s wheat farm in western Kansas was never irrigated. It was called dry farming, completely dependent on rain. This was near the town of Atwood. My great grandfather homesteader in that region.
My grandfather on my father’s side farmed near Benkelman, NE which is SW Nebraska about 10 miles from the Kansas line and 20 miles from Colorado. (not too far from Atwood. ) My mother’s side of the family farmed near a town in SW Kansas called Syracuse. Still have relatives farming back there, although I am from California.
That whole area is like ground zero for my origins. There was some spillover to the Nebraska side of my family although my grandfather and father lived in Atwood. My great grandfather was quite thrifty and bought 7 farms for his seven children. I’m the first of my famil6 born in California, but there’s still a lot of Kansas in me by virtue of my parents.
Yes, my grandpa farmed and raised cattle on 13 sections down in the SW corner of Nebraska. My dad joined the Navy and spent one winter in San Diego and he said, the hell with working on the farm! After his stint in the Navy he decided to make California home.
So “Shasta & Santa Barbara”, my guess is those values handed down by our farming ancestry has a lot to do with why we are both posting on this site. My father and Grandfather were both staunch conservatives.
BTW: I like your name, two very beautiful parts of California! I live in Camarillo, Ventura County, not too far from Santa Barbara. My son attended UCSB. I am a recently retired contractor and have worked on a few projects up that way over the years, so I am quite familiar with the area.
Look up Dryland farming. Quite a bit of it in Colorado too.
Most irrigation is for corn. For feedlots. and silage for feed lots.
Russia / Putin is purposely keeping any conflicts or disturbances out of the major wheat growing area of Ukraine.
The plains of North America feed the world.
So much of the world view of globalists comes from that assumption.
The world, the literal world after the Second World War would have starved if not for the the farmers of the American mid-west, and the farmers of Canada. The pinheads of the Left, who presume human prosperity and progress as a given, are depending on a few farmers in the grain belt. People they loathe, by the way.
Leftists are wrong about everything. Leftists are wrong about everything. This is most essentially the appeal of leftism – reality can be defeated. The attempt to win over the RINOs in the 2022 election is a monstrous mistake.
The Democrats have implicitly acknowledged this with their embrace of anarchism. We hit bottom, then we start over.
And Romney marches with BLM. Yeah, he’s on the right track.
Leftists and RINOs want to cull 80% of the human population. Remember that next time you are thinking of voting for them.
During the war they would have also starved if not for North America. George Marshall was denied the size of army he wanted (about 200 divisions) because his political masters in Washington wisely made the decision to defer a certain number of farmers in order to keep the allies fed and in the war fighting the Germans. The farmers produced and the Merchant Marine delivered.
Geman POWs worked on American farms due to the war induced labor shortage.
A lot of them didnt want to back to Germany.
They fared better as POWs than as soldiers in their own army.
There was a German POW camp near Clarinda, Iowa during WWII. When the camp was dismantled, my grandfather bought some of the fencing for his farm.
Matthew 24:6-8 King James Version 6 And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. 7 For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in diverse places.
We are hearing of wars, Russia/ Ukraine
Rumors of wars
Plague, covid/clot shots
Next up famine, followed soon by pestilence if the cost of fertilizer and pesticides increase and the farmers don’t make very much due to low crop yield.
“For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom…”
The word translated to “nation” is ethnos, a word for “people groups/tribes/races. “Kingdom” denotes a sovereign political state with a location and borders.
Coming from MT and working with my dad on the farm, he always thought winter wheat was a fools errand, the opposite of his brother. Winter wheat is fraught with added risk. If at any time over the course of nearly 6 months it warms up enough to sprout, then hard freezes again, the whole crop is lost. Making crop insurance mandatory.
Even in MT’s quite short growing season, my dad’s preference was always to try his best to get a viable crop with spring wheat, rather than rely an insurance claim. I suspect this is still true of over 60% of western/central grain farmers today.
Wheat, like a wild grass, doesn’t need much moisture at all to germinate, but can be quite stunted by sometimes intense summer heat and drought for dry-land farmers who don’t have the luxury of irrigation. In that case, it can grow so short that a significant percentage of the crop cannot be harvested with a combine.
I’d say the cited report is a bit alarmist. The real concern should be why they’re pushing this narrative and what their plans are.
My first thought was your last paragraph. They must destroy the U.S. — that is the main goal. Open borders, wheat yields down…I read something about bird flu in Iowa and Wisconsin chickens. They want a reason for the starvation they plan.
The latest bird flu outbreaks in poultry in the United States are available from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) webpage at:
USDA APHIS | 2022 Confirmations of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Commercial and Backyard Flocks
(Scroll down page to chart located at bottom and at the next page.)
Remarkable:
God bless you and your family.
You guys are Boxer from Animal Farm.
It’s such a struggle to get the RINOs who dwell here to understand that the mainstream Democrat logic is now anarchism.
When we hit bottom, we will rebound into paradise. They mean it. They think they mean it.
The rich people who now dominate the Democrat Party will surely come out all right.
And the perverse logic of the welfare state means that the poor will be driven deeper into the clutches of the Democrat Party by more poverty. Evil.
It occurred to me recently that the fear mongering about food shortages was similar to the pandemic.
I’m not denying what we see, just asking if the forcasting is wrong / hyperbolic.
The world was going to collapse because of the virus – millions would die!
There’s a shortage of water, seeds, fertilizer, crops – millions will die!
Probably wrong on my part.
Hmm, having a gluten intolerance makes this easier on me. Although, my backyard chickens do need their feed.
Price induced by shortage of one food will push demand and prices of replacements. So, potato, corn, beans and rice.
Flours used by the gluten intolerant will probaly be okay…different supply chain.
Are the lentil crops affected? “Cause dumberg says the proles should learn to like lentils.
I have a lot of lentils because they are an excellent protein source. However, I’m not giving up meat because it is by far the best source of protein and other nutrients that exists on planet earth.
I wish I could figure out how to post a picture of our wheat field I took this evening. It is stunningly beautiful right now. Like a lush green weedless yard. We even had our steers on it this fall for grazing. They weaned 100 lbs heavier than we’ve ever had before! We had .15 inches of rain 2 days ago and are forecast to have 3 more days of rain starting today. We’re in SE Kansas.
Hmmm. Why are they pushing that narrative?
Lincoln County has had 3 good snows over the last several weeks. Our rye looks great, and the cattle love it. We didn’t plant winter wheat this year (unusual for us), but instead focused on our cattle operation more. The rye will get cut for hay a couple times this year (assuming enough rain falls for more then 1 cut). We raise high dollar specialty cattle for high dollar restaurants, dairy cattle for our milk operation, and black angus for meat.
Isn’t snow called frozen nitrogen?
What a blessing.
Yep. God always knows best! (And nothing new under the Sun!)
Poor man’s fertilizer.
What a wonderful place you guys live. As far as size Australia is around the same. But wow you guys can grow crops right across the country.
‘Okay we gonna grow some crops like those Americans do. First we someone to pick up all these …’
A gentleman in our community was cursed with the rockiest farm in the area. Everyone around him had great soil but his was full of rocks. Plowing and tilling was almost impossible. He found a rock picker at a sale and bought it. He would pull it around the farm collecting the rocks and dumping them in piles near the edge of his fields. After a while, he had huge piles of rocks everywhere and the soil remained as rocky as ever. He decided to just encourage pasture and graze cattle. Pasture will grow on rocky land, just thinner. I asked him about the piles of rocks and he told me all of this. The last thing he said was quite profound. “I thought the rocks were in the soil. Turns out that the rocks are my soil.” It is sort of like the bad things we try to put out of our lives are really there because they are what we are, not something that has invaded. We only get rid of our rocks by taking on a new character.
We farm in the Flint Hills of KS. Rocks galore, but it’s good for cattle (and we do have good low lying areas for farm crops). The rocks are nuts though
Have good friends in Elk county who raise cattle. They’ve been mighty busy fighting wildfires in their and neighboring counties this year. Also dealing with extremes in up and down temperature and moisture.
And yup, rocks galore on one of their sections, about 1/3rd of their other section.
Yeah, it’s definitely been dry up until the last few weeks. It’s been since 2018 since we last had a fire close (and on our land). In ’18 our CRP went up after the neighbor decided to cut wood in a draw on our property that we leased to him for deer hunting (of course when it was bone dry.) God has been smiling since then, but that fire took out two old family homesteads both built from post rock (limestone) in the 1800s unfortunately.
Those rock fences that make U.S. country land so picturesque are evidence of the hard work required for small farming. I remember my grandfather, a dairy farmer who grew his own feed and silage in upstate NY, adding to his fences every spring after frost heave gave him another “crop” to harvest.
Petrified watermelons. Take one home for your mother n law.
Now that thar, be a whole lotta rocks!!
Meanwhile fully one third (5.5 BILLION bushels) of our corn production is used to make ethanol to be used to substitute for our plentiful resources of oil. Makes perfect sense in a parallel universe.
Dang. Further proof that green energy kills.
The cold snap in Texas in February of 2021 claimed at least 246 lives. It was caused by instability in the grid from those cursed windmills.
Green energy puts lives at risk.
That is true. However, after the component used to make alcohol is removed, the leftover is fed to cattle anyway. The full 1/3 is not lost completely. It is the same in the manufacture of bourbon and other whiskies.
I wonder if the Flint Hills will be burned over this year given the drought.
We farm Lincoln County- it’s not terribly dry right now, but we’ll see.
Looks like you have some rain coming your way?
Possibly 2-3 inches today and tomorrow. I’ll take it!
We haven’t eaten wheat, corn or soy for at least six years.
I’m a little surprised there aren’t more comments on this one. This only one small part of what’s coming on the food front. As someone points out below, nitrogen fertilizers are going to be more expensive/less available this year around the world due to the ‘renewable energy’ boondoggle.
Add to that that the Chicomms have outlawed the export of phosphates so they can try to plant enough food to rebuild their swine herds and that the potash (the ‘K’ in the NPK trinity of fertilizer) is about to disappear and you may well see continental-scope famine later this year.
Guess who the #2, #3 & #4 exporters of potash are: Russia, Belarus and China in that order. #1 is Canada thankfully.
Guess who the #1 & #5 exporters of wheat are: Russia and Ukraine in that order. And guess who is NOT going to be planting wheat this year…. The US will likely see more inflation in food prices, because, you know, FJB, but we will likely see some countries decimated or worse in the eastern hemisphere.
The ‘global world’ the US built and we lived in since 1945 is rapidly coming to an end. Our kids and grandchildren will live in a starkly different place and none of the political machinations talked about here will alter that. Unfortunately, idiots like the uniparty running the US right now can and will make it worse for us – until Russia and China fully collapse and Brandon and his ilk don’t get paid by Xi Jianpoo and Comrade Vlad anymore.
My family owns 28 sections of land in North Central KS. 16 sections are tillable. In years past we have grown wheat, rye, milo, corn, soybeans, and canola. This year we either left it fallow or planted rye then turned the cattle loose on it. About 20k acres with nothing that will be used for human consumption. The rye grass will get cut for hay (assuming there’s enough rain…). Now with all that said there have been a few decent snow storms the last 3-4 weeks that have helped correct much soil moisture, and I’m not sure how much the drought map actual reflects that (ponds are more then half full, and I’ve seen worse over the last 30+ years)
Got a cousin in La Cross. Beautiful church in Victoria. “Cathedral of the Plains”.
Couple hours west of my family’s land, and a little more flat…but there’s nothing like a sunset or harvest moon out there!
Yup. We always look to see it from I-70.
(James writing from Susan’s machine)
I am in sales in OK but with customers from other states as well.
This past fall in Oklahoma, farmer customers of mine from Washington State and from Kansas told me that farmers in their respective states were finding that planting winter wheat didn’t pencil out. In WA, fertilizer cost exceeded expected price of the crop. In KS, Roundup weedkiller used with gmo seeds was unavailable. (W/O glycophosphate, yield would be 20 bushels/acre instead of 200 in KS. [Like Bulgaria in the middle ages])
My clients told me to stockpile food and said they were doing it themselves. I have.
Now is a good time to look for bread substitutes and experiment with recipes. If you live in a location where there is an abundance of cauliflower at a decent price, there are plenty of cauliflower pizza crust recipes online.
Sweet potatoes are available from roadside vendors here in East Texas at the moment. This simple sweet potato flat bread looks like a tasty possibility. It is made from 1/2 wheat flour, 1/2 boiled (or steamed) sweet potato, and nothing else. No worries about running low on any of the other usual bread ingredients.
If ChYna needed a plan, this might become a moment of great convenience (never letting a crisis go to waste), given their willingness to depopulate when useful:
• Global harvests plunge.
• Grain Exports plunge.
• Massive feed shortages for livestock culls the Cattle herds.
• Bird Flu kills off the Poultry Industry.
• Swine Flu kills off the Hog Industry.
• USA Producers must continue to ship to their ChYna Food Processors, having largely offshored the industry.
• Xi can now BLAME the USA for STARVATION over withholding Food Exports.
• Xi orders food processors to STOP exporting their output.
• Food Bidding Wars multiply Global Inflation.
• Inflation consumes USA Discretionary Income for Middle & Working Classes.
• USA purchases of Discretionary “Stuff” from ChYna plunges.
• Xi can now BLAME the USA for LOST LIVELIHOODS as “Stuff” exports dry up.
• Xi shifts Idled Industries to WARTIME PRODUCTION.
• Xi seizes the “Plunge in Exports-to-USA” moment to DE-DOLLARIZE, toppling the USA Economy into Depression.
• Global Famine in Belt & Road Initiative countries creates massive WORKER SHORTAGES that plunge Natural Resource Extraction & slash Exports that fund Payments-to-Chyna for Ports.
• BRI countries DEFAULT on DEBTS to ChYna, FORFEITING OWNERSHIP of Ports & ResourceS.
• Xi seizes the moment to REDEPLOY Chyna’s Millions of UNEMPLOYABLES to “Save the Economies” of BRI countries after they DEFAULT on Debt-to-ChYna.
• ChYna’s BRI-BRICS-OPEC Alliance then controls the world’s Natural Resource Sectors, displacing WEF Oligopolies.
• Their Alliance BANS Dollar-and-SWIFT Trade Transactions and raises export prices to the Western World, draining their Depression Economies of the funds to recover.
The Western World DROWNS ITSELF in Hyperinflation as their Governments and Central Banks continue trying to print their way out of the Deficit-and-Debt Death Spirals.
“Just Kidding”.
This could never happen.
I don’t think indigenous populations are going to allow themselves to be overrun by Chinese. This is why famines lead to war
Texas currently has the worst wildfires in history raging around the Eastland Complex, major wheat fields. Over 45k acres burned. Sometimes it almost seems as if this was deliberate. Pray for us all.
In ancient times, Egypt was the bread basket of the Mediterranean area. Now Egypt and the other North African countries import most of the wheat they use from the Black Sea region. It would be interesting to know what programs those governments and industries have in place that might buffer the impact of a loss of large quantities of imported grain.
Any insight?
Another thing to consider with the rising grocery prices
is to get some essential gift cards.. Since they never expire
get yourself gas, grocery and pet store gift cards.
Also if you have a bread machine get some Bread mixes to add
to your flour stockpile (some of the mixes come with Yeast packets
so you don’t need to worry about the yeast.) A good one is Prepared
Pantry they have a good variety and the Best buy dates on some go out
till 2024.. so they will last a while.
Good idea about the gift cards.
Our local farm store has a sale on gift cards in December, 10% off. So I buy a year’s worth each December. It’s an automatic 10% discount on what I buy there.
I can confirm drought in northern California.
Last measurable rain was in December.
November we had five inches.
Prior to that was twelve months ago.
Been going on for years.
I am in Southern California, about 50 miles up the coast from LA. Last rain season we had a severe drought, a terrible year. This season we set records in December for rainfall, then had a very dry January and February. We have had a little in March. We are a bit below our norm for this point in the season, but not much. I keep hearing from the media our state is in a severe drought, but I look at the data and I note Downtown SF is at 101% of its average rainfall. Chico is 75%, Ft Bragg 78%, Napa 90%, Davis 97%, Portola 98%, Stockton 87%. Most of the rain stations are between 60 and 100% of the seasonal averages. Is that considered a drought? I don’t know. I do know that our state relies heavily on snow pack and I believe the Sierras are at about 60% of the average. The good news is we got about 2 to 4″ more yesterday. The Rockies are at about 95% of their normal snow pack. Hopefully we get more precipitation this Spring!
Wheat merchandiser here in Oregon. In the PNW(Oregon, Washington, Idaho) we grow Soft White Winter and Spring wheat. There is also grown Hard Red Winter and Spring Wheat. Soft White is a low protein wheat, best for marketing below 10.5 %protein , but preferred in the 8-9.5 % range.
The Hard Red winter wheat gown here has a desired range much higher 11-12%, with the Red Spring wheat grown here desired to be even higher in protein, perhaps 14%. By a very large margin our main production in the PNW is Soft White.
The Oregon Wheat League was the first wheat commission to form in the U.S., I believe in 1925-26. After World War II, our league was in Japan helping with foodstuffs and introduced the Japanese to Soft White Wheat…..they are our number one customer now. Our Soft White is used in specific noodles and crackers where the flour does not need to rise very much-low protein wheat. The mighty Columbia River(a river pilot told us once that it dumps 1 billion cu. ft. of water into the Pacific Ocean, per second) is a huge portal to Asia for the United States wheat crop….and corn…..and soybeans. The Columbia River is in the heart of PNW wheat growing, bringing product to the ports from all three states….another story for another time is how the wackos out here want to take down the dams/locks on the Columbia/Snake River…..
Kansas (#1 of all production), Oklahoma, Texas, and other plains states, produce large amounts of bushels of the Hard Red Winter wheat and N. Dakota/Montana produce Hard Red Spring with its even higher protein. These are bread wheats, because with yeast and the higher proteins the flour will rise dramatically. Durum wheat is also grown in these areas for pasta noodles….
Just some two years ago, our harvest price here was in the $5/bushel range….currently the price is $ 11+/bushel for old crop $ 10/bushel new crop-July/August. It is great for the farmers on the sell side, but the buy side (fertilizer, chemicals, ) it is sky high as well.
A normal crop in the PNW is somewhere in 240-260 million bushel range (1 bushel of US # 1 soft white =60 lbs.). In the crop marketing year we are in now, much less was produced, perhaps 150 million bushels….of which a large portion was poor quality, due to extreme drought and heat. Western Oregon has gotten moisture, so far this growing year but the eastsides of WA and OR are still dry….
It is interesting to be having this “Ukraine thing” going on and the world’s wheat supply is threatened. In the PNW we grow high quality wheat (#1 grade), much in demand for that aspect. Most of the export houses in the PNW, are owned or partially owned, or have an export agreement by companies in major Asian countries. Food Security. Ukraine and Russia grow poorer quality wheat. It is shipped through the Black Sea by way of The Bosporus (strait of Istanbul), which is controlled by Turkey, for which all ships must pass. This wheat goes to poorer countries in the Mid-East and North Africa…..poorer quality, lower price, cheaper freight due to proximity…not so much food security in these importing countries.
The U.S. exports about 70% of its production, but falls behind China, India, EU, and Russia in total production. China and India, the # 1 & 2 producers do not export much wheat, but China is certainly buying more from the U.S. now…
I know many of you remember the seventies and wheat politics then. Russia just about stole us blind from our supplies by buying and exporting large quantities, before we knew it was gone…and how about the worst President in history….no wait, I think he is only # 3 now-Jimmmmmmy Carter. Wheat embargoes with Russia, boycott the Olympics in Moscow, etc.; what a piece of work the peanut guy was…..
Of course with the Red Diaper Doper Babies, nothing is new under the sun….wheat….politics….dems lying…people dying. “let’s try this one again”
Oh by the way…wheat is considered “the cockroach of grains” -it is hard to kill.
58Mike, read about the Fufeng Group in Grand Forks, ND:
https://fortisanalysis.substack.com/p/belt-and-road-comes-to-the-heartland-5e5?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxNTY0ODU5NiwicG9zdF9pZCI6NTAzOTUxMjMsIl8iOiJmbXIxYiIsImlhdCI6MTY0NzgwMzM5MCwiZXhwIjoxNjQ3ODA2OTkwLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItNDMwNjE4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.Epx39QNRjffD4v5_q0huyVWaEdRebxYxVgU0gYuzsVM&s=r
Great context! Thanks!
How much of that farm-able land is owned by globalist thug Bill Gates?
As I understand it, the many thousands of acres of farm land 0wned by the Gates Foundation is barren. He is VERY into Population Control being the only way to save the Planet. Look how the pandemic has been so helpful in that regard. I wonder how much pleasure he gets from playing God!
I notice that Utah, Minnesota, Iowa, Louisiana, and Alabama grow no winter wheat. I wonder why is that? Anyone else know?
What about Cloud Seeding? Perhaps they want this drought?
We can always supplement wheat flour with dried grass and sawdust.
Acorns. Ground acorns. My grandfather who lived through Marxist socialism in central Europe said they would mix ground acorn with the flour to stretch the flour. I asked him how it tasted with the ground acorn, he said it was bitter.
I’m not anti-meat, but after all the warnings last year, I transitioned to a mostly plant-based diet and might switch full-time. With that said, I don’t think it’s for everyone’s system — we are each unique and have different dietary needs.
I should clarify: In anticipation of animal feed shortages, etc.
If winter wheat crops become problematic, then its a crisis of which the Left will take full advantage.
A relative works for a big fertilizer distributor on the Ohio River, told me the farmers she’s talked to are still planning to plant crops, but are going to cut their fertilizer application way back to help make up for the price spikes. That’s going to cut yields no matter what. Should be more soybeans planted this year as they mostly need lime.
I just looked at Wichita Kansas weather forecast. Looks like they will be getting rain Monday and Tuesday.
Yeah, the Drought Monitor https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ shows that the drought in Kansas was knocked back in the last few weeks although it’s still bad in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.
There are always parts of the country in drought, and the wheat harvest over the entire country should be slightly below normal but not catastrophically so.
Dang, a lot of NCK boys on this site. Feels like old home week here.
MC here, holding the line.
…can you say Gleissberg Cycle?