Ground Reports – 2018 Midterm Election

In the past several election cycles CTH has posted ‘Ground Report- Open Discussion’ threads to review perspectives of ground reports from your state, city and neighborhood. ‘Ground Reports’ are a valuable resource to gauge the non-quantifiable elements around elections; they are often quite insightful.

Many states are currently in the process of early voting. If you have a ground report you would like to share, please use the comment section below to provide your perspective.

Additionally, there are often obscure events that can help identify voting trends and possibilities; so don’t limit your review to traditional perspectives. Sentiments and senses are also very useful. What do you sense? What is going on in/around your town and location? Good or bad; positive or negative; what do you see happening?

This entry was posted in Election 2018, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

517 Responses to Ground Reports – 2018 Midterm Election

  1. In Virginia, Dems reportedly have stopped a planned $800,000 ad buy in their race against Comstock (VA-10) because they feel they have that locked up. That race was supposedly tightening at one point.

    Dems also throwing a boatload of money against David Bratt (VA-7), running a charismatic former CIA woman against him.

    Liked by 1 person

    • benifranlkin says:

      Doubt that re: $800K. Comstock’s the incumbent, right? They need the $ someplace else.


    • merry says:

      If anyone cares about the deep blue state of oregone gone gone, go to website click current election on upper left click daily ballot return (unofficial) in upper right. As of today 10/31 dems returned 299,309 or 30.4%; inds 30,686 or 24.5%; repubs 213,608 or 30% and nonailgned 108,748 or 12.4% eligible voters. Those nonaligned are motor voters who did not return card but were sent ballots anyway. most of them illegals.


  2. Jake says:

    Just a quick ground report from Massachusetts that is quite interesting. I heard a caller on Jeff Kuhner’s show today say that a young union guy told him that his union put out the word to vote for Republican Geoff Diehl for Senate NOT Liz Warren.
    With all the union jobs that are coming back under President Trump’s MAGA economy, why the heck wouldn’t some unions quietly be telling their workers to support Republican candidates that will vote with the President on jobs and cutting regulations?

    Liked by 10 people

    • wolfmoon1776 says:

      Agreed. Take the BLUE bus to the polls, but VOTE RED.

      Liked by 5 people

      • Jay says:

        I’m an electrician in Philadelphia, local 98. I love Johnny doc but EVERY single tradesman I meet is voting republican, and have their trump train seats reserved. In the halls it’s typical union blue talk, but in reality trump has I’d say >50% of all union votes, just my .02$, but a big deal in my book

        Liked by 6 people

        • wolfmoon1776 says:

          That is a big deal. And if it holds in northern Ohio, it’s going to mean good things for the Trump agenda in Congress. If we get Jim Renacci (whose priority is more workers and small business and less big business) in the Senate, then Trump will be able to do BIG THINGS. One less obstruction vote from Sherrod Brown, one more pro-Trump vote from Jim Renacci.

          Liked by 1 person

        • Beverly says:

          I know some [retired] DOS union guys here in NYC, huge Trump fans; detested Hagzilla.


  3. Annie Ok says:

    I have been making calls to Virginia Beach to get people to the precincts to represent Corey Stewart (running against Tim Kaine.) This just in from a member of Corey Stewart’s paid staff: “This race is going to be very, very much closer than the media is predicting, according to our internal polling. So every big and little effort counts!” Also, heard through the same grapevine that Trump may be in Virginia Beach to boost Corey Stewart this Monday.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. Elizabeth says:

    Just a small anecdotal report from central PA. I was listening to a local talk radio program this morning and a retired woman called in to say she and her husband have voted D all their lives. She voted for Obama and Hillary. Said her eyes have been opened since the last election and she and her husband will vote R for the first time ever in these mid-term elections. She mentioned that her son has always been a staunch R.

    My 18 yr old daughter registered to vote this year as well. She is planning on voting straight R.

    Liked by 15 people

    • Pied Piper says:

      From Texas: My anti-politics neice, 44 years old and long-time dim voter because of the influence of ex-husband–he from northern liberal family of intellectuals–voted straight Republican ticket during early voting this week. She won’t talk about it but something woke her up.

      Also, I voted on first day of early voting, Monday a week ago at 2pm. Took 50 minutes to get to the machine. Longest lines I have ever seen at that early voting location. I’m a 70 year-old white guy (I know, ugh!) but nearly everyone in line looked like me or a female equivalent. Yes, it was 2pm on a work day but the line was at least 10 times as long as in the 2016 presidential election and the 2014 mid-terms.

      I always go on the first day of early voting to the same location (Oh my God!, it’s at a church) so that might give SOME indication of a big year for turnout–hopefully Republican.

      Re: early voting.
      Like it or not, it is not going away. Let’s just fix any fraud holes just like we need to fix fraud holes if you vote on the actual day of the election.

      But the the real answer to eliminating election fraud is there isn’t one. Dims will always cheat. The way to stop them is to peel off 20 or 25% of the minority vote and they will be a permanent minority. If you think you can stop Dims from cheating and win that way, think again.

      I’m feeling optimistic about next Tuesday just like in 2016 when I always thought Trump would win. Why did I think he would win? Because he figured out his opponent was not Hillary. His opponent was the corrupt mainstream media and he ran against them.

      Fast forward to today… he’s doing it again.

      Liked by 5 people

  5. Alligator Gar says:

    Wakulla County, FL, is about 50-50 R and D with about 3600 No Party Affiliation up for grabs. I used to be one of those NPAs. I’m going to try to vote this PM on the way home.

    Liked by 5 people

  6. FINALLY, was able to vote here in my part of Karen Handel’s district. Took 4 days in order to finally get in. But today, I got there at 9am and “only” had to wait 20 minutes.

    Never, ever been like this, even during the presidential election.

    To say I’m stunned is an understatement.

    FYI, this is a very affluent suburban district of Atlanta. Very conservative. But lots of transplants too.

    I’m telling you, the fact this polling location is this busy is very good for our side.

    Liked by 10 people

  7. snarkybeach says:

    I’m in a red area of Louisiana and I voted on Saturday afternoon (last day of early voting). No lines at all. The radio today said that 307K had voted so far and they are expecting a turnout of 35%–which is high for a non presidential or senatorial election.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. iconoclast says:

    Williamson County, Texas. Solid red with blue creeping in in recent years. This county has the highest rate of early voting of any county in the state. Good sign for Rs. Bad for Beto.

    Liked by 3 people

    • texasgal91 says:

      Travis County early voting in my conservative pocket in West Lake Hills. Lines at Randall’s snake though entire produce section, out door, the entire length of Randall’s from the entrance to edge of store outside, and then covering 2-3 storefronts next door to Randall’s on FIRST DAY OF EARLY VOTING and both times I’ve been back to grocery shop. Also bad for Robert Francis, skateboarder, insider trader, under the influence driver, liar.


  9. Took a stab at compiling all the great ground reports here against the RCP “average”, which shows as of this AM 204D 32 Toss ups and 199 R.
    That site puts House seats in “buckets” as follows (as of 10/31):
    Likely D–15 Total seats (4 currently R)
    Leans D–16 Total seats (10 currently R)
    Toss Up–32 Total seats (3 currently D, 29 R)
    Leans GOP–25 Total seats (1 currently D)
    Likely GOP–22 Total seats (1 currently D)

    TOTAL Broken Out–110 Seats of 435 in House

    Using feedback above, where there is feedback above I assigned a likely outcome as noted below. Vote prediction is made using more conservative assumption of actual final vote, depending on numbers reported and/or if multiple reports indicate a likely outcome.

    Based on this, I derived my prediction as of today as Republican 222 v Democrat 213, with an upside, depending on later developments of from 10-20 seats (Potential high side result would be GAIN in current majority, to 242 R vs. 193 D). I plan to update this every couple of days to see how close I am. But of course no false/early celebration!! )

    If interested, here is how I treated the buckets:
    Lean or Likely D–input positive for R’s 15 of 31 seats–assume final R better than RCP by +3 seats
    Toss Ups–input positive for R’s 21 (positive for D–1) Most TU seats are currently R. Assume R’s win 21 of these 32 seats; roughly 2/3rds.
    Lean/Likely R–Assumed all but 1 of 47 seats remain R.

    Liked by 2 people

    • RoostyScoot says:

      Love this. The same polls that predicted trump would lose are now predicting a ‘blue tide’ so i ALWAYS discount the RCP polls, and push them towards R. Love seeing this analysis. Would love to see more!

      Liked by 1 person

  10. NJ Transplant says:

    My husband and I went to vote early (absentee) today. We filled out the forms there and handed them in. This is in Maine CD 2, in a small town outside of Bangor. There were a couple of people there filling out ballots. I asked the people who work in the town office if there have been a lot of people voting. They said there has been a lot. The town is primarily registered Republican. The congressional race here is very tight. The Democrat, who has been outright lying about the Republican, was ahead by 1 point in a recent poll. The previous 2 were tied. The incumbent, Poliquin, was a pro-DACA and never Trumper who has changed his tune. I hope that is not keeping people away from the polls.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. tommy lile says:

    In Tennessee…It appears Marsha Blackburn (R) will defeat Phil Bredesen (D)……..(Who was the former Governor)………by 3 or 4 points………and Bill Lee (R) will be elected Governor……..over Karl Dean (D),……….Tennessee votes Republican 98.9% of the Time……..

    Liked by 2 people

  12. jameshudnall says:

    If the media is saying this, it could be a lot worse for them than they say:

    Liked by 1 person

    • RoostyScoot says:

      As we get closer, they are going to start hedging their bets to protect their ‘integrity’

      Liked by 2 people

    • jogreggre says:

      The comments beneath the video are amazing. I’ve never seen so many California voters speaking against Democrats. As several comments stated, Democrat politicians have absolutely ruined California.


      • Sprawlie says:

        I’m cautiously optimistic John Cox has a long shot chance to pull out an upset in the California Governor race. The last time there was a gas/car tax increase in 2003 voters were mad enough to recall Gray Davis and elect Arnold Schwarzenegger who ran as a moderate, common sense Republican. Cox is running as a change agent self-made business man vs former San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom a scumbag upper crust lifetime pol with deep pockets and deeper connections. Republican and Independent turnout should be higher than normal because of the gas tax repeal proposition on the ballot while Democrat turnout should be lower than normal because of blue wave complacency and having 2 Democrats (No Republican) on the ballot for Senate. I’m also hoping that the SF vs LA rivalry dampens down Southern California turnout after Newsom defeated former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa in the primary. I’ve seen a couple Cox signs but have yet to see signs for Newsom even in the areas that had I’m with Her signs in 2016.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Sprawlie I also see Aja Smith in 41st District and Omar Narravo have pick up a lot of steam

          Liked by 2 people

          • Sprawlie says:

            May15thProphecy, the small opening I see for Cox on a statewide level would unfortunately not translate to the local federal office races. The SoCal region is full of enough Raging Liberals, Nevertrumpers, and Fake News addicts that even with depressed turnout they should be enough to see Dims like Maxine Waters carry the day.

            However, the red congressional districts that were considered at risk coming into this election cycle are looking good. Republicans may even come out of it +2 or 3.


      • fabrabbit says:

        Interesting to me,too. I voted R in Calif but always do. I live in the bluest blue (but really anarchist) city north of SF. Can never mention my party affiliation to anyone, must be careful around neighbors who probably already suspect me because I fly the flag outside my home. Calif won’t change, LA & SF libs have it tied up but I’m stoked to see so many turning Red. Leaving the state for No. Carolina early next year. I’ve had enough.

        Liked by 1 person

  13. viator2 says:

    Mid-Michigan clerks say the number of absentee ballots they’ve issued for the upcoming gubernatorial election rival or exceed the number typically issued for a presidential election. “Which would be remarkable,” said Charles Ballard, a Michigan State University economics professor who works with the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research. “Unprecedented, as far as I can tell.” “Especially in the last month or so, there have been stories about the Republican base getting revved up,” Ballard said. “There used to be this enthusiasm gap and apparently that has reduced.” Lansing State Journal

    Liked by 2 people

  14. pocaMAGAjunta says:

    Advertising concept-idea.

    The Democrats could have called out Russia for violating nuclear treaties . But they chose not to.

    The Democrats could have stood up to Chinas unfair trade practices. But they chose not to.

    The Democrats could have brought back jobs for Americans. But they chose not to.

    The Democrats could have put American citizens first. But they chose not to.

    President Trump said he would not forget the working men and women of America. He said would put America first.

    And he did.

    Liked by 6 people

    • Doug says:

      I’m asking people I meet to consider the FACT that there are 630 million people living south of the border, many of whom are poor and would want to live here: What will be the effect on their lives if
      1. Dems get open borders.
      2. Dems pass goverment run health care and give it “free” to anyone.
      3. Dems give “free” college to everyone.
      4. Dems give illegals the right to vote. (See San Fran)

      THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ would crater THEIR standard of living and the standard of living for their children and grandchildren, it would never recover.

      Liked by 2 people

  15. Deadeye says:

    DEMS are dumping $400,000 more into the Minnesota Senate race for Franken’s old seat.
    If they need to defend MN they’re not going to have a good night on November 6.

    Liked by 4 people

  16. Doug says:

    I’m asking people I meet to consider the FACT that there are 630 million people living south of the border, many of whom are poor and would want to live here: What will be the effect on their lives if
    1. Dems get open borders.
    2. Dems pass goverment run health care and give it “free” to anyone.
    3. Dems give “free” college to everyone.
    4. Dems give illegals the right to vote. (See San Fran)

    THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ would crater THEIR standard of living and the standard of living for their children and grandchildren, it would never recover.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. Finbar O'Shaunnessey says:

    I notice very few yard signs this time around. People seem reluctant to fly their political colors. As for myself, Cold Anger don’t do no yard signs.

    Liked by 4 people

  18. SouthCentralPA says:

    South Central Pennsylvania: site of one of the most raucous Sarah Palin rallies in the 08 cycle (at Shippensburg U). There may have been some Trump-skeptical folks (I know I was one — once), but as the jug-eared monstrosity’s “new normal” has morphed into raging MAGAnomics, enthusiasm is high. There are no Trump voters who have ‘regrets’ (as the media insists they must). The majority that gave PA’s electoral votes to PDJT are there plus all the people who are loving the economy (plus some BLEXITeers in Philly to provide a little cushion) should be enough to elect a second GOP Senator but it all comes down to turnout. I am cautiously hopeful. All signs bode well.

    Liked by 3 people

  19. Deadeye says:

    My predictions for the Senate and House.
    Not scientific. Just a gut reaction to what I’m reading, hearing and seeing.
    GOP adds 4 in the Senate
    GOP holds the House by 10.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Finbar O'Shaunnessey says:

      My 2 cents:
      GOP adds 5 in Senate
      GOP holds House by ? (you can count the number with one hand).
      Anything less and I’ll be A – PO – PLECTIC.


  20. peace says:

    In the democratically controlled state of crooked Illinois, the IEA has been sending poster sized flyers to its members stating that they are proudly endorsing every single democrat in every single race. Shame on the IEA!! They are part of the problem in education.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. getfitnow says:

    This is what “eating their own” looks like.

    FTA – Sen. Claire McCaskill’s, D-Mo., efforts to distance herself from “crazy Democrats” sparked a fiery backlash from a Missouri Democratic state senator, who responded by calling her a “piece of s—” and nicknaming her “Dixie Claire.” “Claire McCaskill is desperate,” state Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal tweeted. “She’s a piece of s—. Instead of knowing why people of color are angered by this administration, she chooses to put us and our families in harm’s way. If my family is harmed, blame it on Claire McCaskill. She deserves to lose. She is not a Democrat.”

    Liked by 2 people

    • Nomadic100 says:

      Is it possible that Senator Nadal’s assertion is a double back sneak effort to assist McCaskill?


      • Free Speech says:

        I was thinking the same. Maybe Dems know everyone on their side knows Nadal’s a whackjob, so what she says won’t effect their vote. But . . . what if she could convince the moderates Claire’s one of them. Afterall, the far Left loony hates her with passion. She can’t be all bad, can she? Claire recently went on Fox and got a softball interview. She’s definitely working overtime to rehabilitate herself after O’Keefe skewered her.


  22. Joe Kenney says:

    Finally got to vote early here in Frisco Texas. The early voting center near me was constantly full so I had to go to another place this morning. Must have been some strange timing because there were a ton of attractive younger women there voting. Some of them looked quite young so I was concerned they might have been voting for Beta, but you never know!


  23. Dimbulbz says:

    Unfortunately and according to Fox news, We are going to lose the house. Two years of not being able to watch any news. America, if it falls for this, does NOT deserve Donald Trump as their president. I am back to thanking God every day that we do not have the Clintons in the white house. That’s something I can still be happy about. We will probably keep the senate, That’s something I can be thankful for as well. I cant believe I live in a country of such ignorance. I feel like the Democrats should lose every house seat. Nancy Pelosi?? Really? What is wrong with you people? I wonder how long before we can get the house back. Maybe the house Dems will be so disgusting that people will get them out in 2020.

    What do you want to bet that the press will predict a blue wave again in 2020? – I get so tired of constantly being on defense.

    Can anyone explain to me why we have so many Republicans retiring this year? It seems that all the open seats are


  24. jojotom01 says:

    Gov. Scott Walker at Renco Machine Co., Green Bay, Wisconsin, Tuesday, Oct 30,2018


    • jojotom01 says:

      Sorry it starts in the middle-I’m learning! Just move it to the beginning.
      Also Senator Ron Johnson speaks before Gov. Walker.


  25. Today 10/31, I drove through Eagle, ID, a suburb of Boise. At an Albertson’s parking lot there was a long line of voters waiting to cast an early ballot. My estimate was of a block long line — men and women — waiting in the cold and very cloudy weather. This signifies enthusiasm. Much stronger showing than what I saw for the primary.


  26. roy1982blog says:

    I live in Oakland County Michigan which is one of the three “tri-counties” that make up the Detroit area. In other words, 3 of the most populous counties in Michigan. Macomb County flipped from blue to red in 2016 and was given credit for flipping Michigan red.

    One thing I noticed in 2016 is Clinton took Michigan for granted, expecting it to be hers without putting in the work. I am seeing the same pattern here with Debbie Stabinow.

    I see hardly any yard signs. She is holding no town halls. And the unions have no allegiance to her. I think John James could easily shock the nation next week. It tells me a lot that he is getting ZERO National attention. He would be Michigan’s Tim Scott.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Tottie Mitchell says:

      I hear plenty about John James and I don’t watch tv. Radio, Trump, Twitter…..He’s a star shining as far as Virginia and for sure nationwide.


  27. K9 Cop says:

    I am a deplorable through and through and do NOT want to be a Debbie downer. But is it possible that all this huge turnout for early voting will lead to unusually low turnout on Election Day? I’m worried people who usually vote on Election Day are so over anxious that they are voting early and giving a false sense of security in the early numbers. Somebody please tell me I’m over thinking it. Because I really hope I am.


    • snyderarnold says:

      K9 Cop, you’re overthinking it. A big chunk of the GOP lead in early voting is because Dems aren’t showing up. These are Dem voters (youth, minorities) that will not vote on election day.

      And polls with correct samples would lead to roughly the GOP leads we’re seeing. You’ll see the MSM pollsters increasingly showing GOP leads now that their reputations will be on the line and there’s no time left for propaganda.


    • SueR says:

      I think you’re overthinking it. My husband and I strongly feel that voting should take place on voting day. Hence, we’ll be casting our R ballot then. And methinks that many others feel the same. Take heart!!


    • Mrs. E says:

      FWIW, my husband and I have been talking about this huge show of R voting in early voting; typically early voting favors the dems because they are the ones that go then.

      We think all the Rs showing up early are new Rs. They are the voters who were dems and have switched parties. The percentages of early voting R also seem to follow closely the percentages that have left the dem party. Keeping in mind that this is not scientific, but anecdotal.

      I also strongly believe voting should take place on one day, and have advised people that way, after working with True the Vote, and seeing the amount of voter fraud in absentee ballots, etc.

      It will be interesting to see what parties show up on election day. See if it bears out my 2 cents.


  28. Steve in MT says:

    In Montana, we just had the Libertarian candidate withdraw and throw his support to Rosendale. The previous election, Tester had funded the Libertarians, which is why he has never won 50%. Our elections clerk told me that the returns on absentee ballots have a return rate of 65% a week out.
    Not sure how to read it, since the Tribe on my reservation is going for 100% Native vote for Tester, But Republicans outnumber Dems here by 3-1. Also, Crow Tribe just endorsed Rosendale. I am willing to bet the Northern Cheyenne will as well. Without those two tribes and the Libertarians pulling votes from the Republican, I think Tester is now officially toast.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Guy-Blanc Déploré says:

      Mostly confirming and adding detail. The Libertarian thing is turning into a bit of a fiasco.
      After the (L) candidate’s withdrawal & endorsement of (R) Rosendale, the Libertarian party chairman came out a few hours later and disavowed the candidate’s statement.
      This all came about because a dark money group did the same thing they did in 2012, put out an ad calling the Libertarian the “true conservative” to siphon votes fro the Repub. to help Tester.

      Not sure exactly how much help all this will be, but it could be the edge needed, if at least half the Libertarian voters (which seem to get ~2%, +/- .5% typically) vote for Rosendale in a brief fit of sanity. Could even come down to a couple tenths of a point in the senate race.

      Tester also goofed by saying he thought he had the Crow tribe’s endorsement, when Rosendale actually got it. The goof played on the evening news. 😀

      I’m feeling better about MT’s chances to elect Repubs to both House & Senate now. Both sides seem energized, and I’m convinced it’s going to be a turnout election.

      Liked by 1 person

  29. Doug says:

    The only thing worse than being a Debbie Downer is being a Debbie Do-Nothing.
    It’s not going to be enough to just get out and vote.
    We need to encourage others to vote the right way.

    As Sargent Barnes famously said, “We need every swinging *ick in the field”….
    Now go back in your foxhole.


  30. viator2 says:

    “When Congressman Tom Garrett announced he would not seek reelection back in May, Democrats were excited they might be able to pick up an open seat. But now, five months later, the 5th Congressional District hasn’t drawn nearly as much money or attention as three other competitive races in Virginia. “I wouldn’t say Democrats have given up on the Fifth because I don’t know that they’ve ever gone in heavily on the Fifth.” That’s Quentin Kidd at Christopher Newport University. He’s director of the Wason Center for Public Policy, which rates the race as a toss-up.
    “I don’t know that they’ve ever gone in with both feet like the DCCC has in the 2nd Congressional District race of the 7th or the 10th. So I would hesitate to say that they’ve either pulled out or that they’re pulling back because I don’t know that they’ve ever went in full force like that.”
    Virginia Public Radio


  31. viator2 says:

    “In Virginia, early voting has vastly increased since last year’s gubernatorial race. As of October 30, 211,642 votes have been cast, a 104.6 percent jump from 2017’s 103,450 votes, according to figures provided by the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP). The biggest year-over-year gains have been seen in Northern Virginia’s Tenth Congressional current represented by Republican Barbara Comstock – up 135 percent – and in Central Virginia’s Seventh Congressional District currently represented by Republican Dave Brat. Early voting in Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District is also up 105 percent since last year. The current representative, Tom Garrett, is retiring, and former gubernatorial candidate and distillery owner Denver Riggleman is running for the seat as a Republican.” The Republican Standard


  32. viator2 says:

    From New Hampshire, a district thought to be in the Democrat column.
    “It’s not just the Emerson College poll that indicates something’s going on in the 1st Congressional District U.S. House race. It’s the influx of Democratic money as well. On Monday, the House Majority PAC, which is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure super PAC with close ties to U.S. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, dropped $678,000 to air an attack ad hitting Republican Eddie Edwards on health care. More than $523,000 was spent on WMUR, according to public documents on file with the Federal Election Commission. The rest went to the Boston market and cable television, the PAC said. The ad was worn like a badge of honor by the Edwards camp in its intensifying battle with Democrat Chris Pappas. “The fact is that national Democrats are terrified. If this race were not close, they would not be spending over a half million dollars in a last-ditch ad that outright lies about Eddie’s position on these important issues,” said Edwards campaign consultant Derek Dufresne. And the Wednesday, an Emerson College poll could have shown why the House Majority PAC decided to spend big to help Pappas. The poll showed Edwards, with 46 percent, in a virtual dead heat with Pappas, at 48 percent. Undecided voters accounted for 5 percent, and the margin of error was 4.3 percent. The poll, by the way, was conducted before the Monday night Granite State Debate between Edwards and Pappas.” WMUR

    Liked by 1 person

  33. VoteOutIncumbents says:

    Here in Grand Rapids my 92 year old life long Democrat mother voted straight R with her absentee ballot today. She’s furious at the Kavanaugh ambush.


  34. ks says:

    Here in Virginia, we don’t have early voting. I’m holding my breath that Tim Kaine will not be reelected. Northern Virginia is usually blue. Pray for Virginia.


  35. viator2 says:

    “1,230,433 Arizonans have voted early, as of this morning. For perspective, that’s approaching the 1.5 million total votes cast in the state in the 2014 midterm elections. There are currently 3.7 million registered voters in Arizona. Of those who have voted early so far, 525,647 are registered Republicans and 413,005 are registered Democrats. Of the remainder, 8,250 are classified “minor parties” and 283,531 are classified “other” or unaffiliated. If you assume that registered Republicans voted for Senate candidate Martha McSally and registered Democrats voted for Kyrsten Sinema in equal proportions, that gives McSally a 112,642-vote margin. That’s a sizable margin one week away from the election. To pull even the early vote, Sinema would need to be winning the unaffiliated and minor-party voters by a roughly 70-30 split.” National Review

    But RCP gives Sinema a .7 point lead and the race is rated a tossup. Who are you going to believe the voters or the gaslighting MSM?


  36. sudsy49 says:

    The Las Vegas Review Journal reports the following with 5 days to go: “Early voting turnout in Nevada has been outpacing the 2014 midterm election but falling short of the 2016 presidential election.” Ballots cast by party registration: Democrats 169,763; Republican 152,772; Other 79,505. 2014 midterm 181,673; 2018 midterm 402,040; 2016 general 508,154.


  37. DesertRain says:

    Good evening all!

    Please, please, please do not use reported “poll results” as a reason for not voting!
    Per AZ local ABC station poll, McSally suddenly has big lead over Sinema.
    Don’t fall for it and decide not to vote! And don’t let friends, family, or anyone you converse with make that mistake either!

    Personally, I will never talk with anyone about poll data other than to say… “don’t trust it”.
    The only sure thing is to VOTE!

    Liked by 1 person

    • Dave says:


      I have thought the exact same thing.

      If media or other “sources” are saying “Republicans are winning overwhelmingly” or “Republicans are losing overwhelmingly”, it can very much be a “keep folks from getting out to vote” PSYOP.



  38. elizabethross1776 says:

    I haven’t found any official early voting statistics yet. But my experience this morning was unlike anything I’ve ever seen. The BOE office in my Dem-controlled rust belt Ohio city was packed. I had to wait in line to get my voter card at 8:45 a.m.–a first in early voting. I was dismayed to find that I didn’t *have to* show photo ID. If I’d had my husband’s drivers license number or last 4 digits of his SSN, I could have voted in his name. The line went quickly and in the voting room, there were probably 60 voting machines, and at least 2/3 of them were occupied, mainly by black voters. I’m a purple-red dot in a sea of blue here. The city, where I live, is overwhelmingly black and Democrat, while the ‘burbs are overwhelmingly white and Republican. The Dems have such a stranglehold on offices in the city that the GOP doesn’t even bother to field a candidate in most local races.

    I’m a white libertarian/conservative voter who typically votes for a mix of candidates (Libertarian, GOP, and on rare occasions a conservative Democrat, before that species went extinct around here). I currently have a Travis Irvine (Libertarian for Governor) sign in my yard because Mike DeWine is the worst kind of career politician RINO hack, who never met a government expansion program or tax he didn’t like. He also has a terrible record on gun rights. However, I voted to re-elect my GOP Representative in Congress.

    On the way into the building, the Democrats had a manned table surrounded by Dem yard signs. The GOP table on the other side of the entrance was unmanned and unkempt. There was no Libertarian presence.

    The only real discussion I hear is how disgusted people are with their choices in the Governor’s race: Mike DeWine (pretend R) vs Richard Cordray (D). The other two candidates on the ballot, the Libertarian Travis Irvine and the token Green party candidate (who doesn’t appear to be actively campaigning), have been virtually ignored by the media until very recently, and were even excluded from the three debates. Friends in the LP who are phone banking tell me that people are thrilled to hear there’s a more conservative option than DeWine available, and the LP may pick up some votes because of the overwhelmingly negative advertising Cordray and DeWine are doing against each other (which is all accurate–they’re both awful). Many GOP voters are truly disgusted by DeWine. A surprisingly large number are also disgusted by the fact that our largest gun rights group, the Buckeye Firearms Association, endorsed DeWine in spite of DeWine’s being on the record in favor of “reasonable gun control”. I’ve lost a lot of respect for the BFA personally.

    Here’s a news story with some more interesting details: Absentee ballot requests up in Ohio’s Republican-leaning counties, but suburbs, independents remain major wildcard:


  39. Deadeye says:

    It’s not enough to just win. We need to destroy and humiliate the left. So get out there and VOTE!


  40. DesertRain says:

    I’m interested to read what CTH folks think about organized “walkout to vote” events at schools.
    I’m hoping communities will not have to deal with student caravans on Election Day.


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