Hurricane Michael Makes Landfall Near Mexico Beach as 155 MPH Cat4 Storm….

Hurricane Michael has made landfall east of Panama City Beach in an area called Mexico Beach.  The well defined eye-wall hits the coast as an extremely strong category 4 storm with sustained winds of 155 MPH.  [Cat5 is 157mph]  The area near Mexico Beach and Tyndall Air Force Base is taking a direct hit. Wind gauges near the AFB recorded wind speeds of 130mph prior to equipment failure.

All small residential structures on/near the Mexico Beach impact zone are suffering complete structural failure. Larger steel reinforced concrete buildings are under extreme pressure.

[Hurricane Center] At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts

On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move inland across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia tonight. Michael will move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday night, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. (read more)

Here is a familiar video scene for those of us who have gone through this:

Those in the area of highest wind speed will engage the eyewall for approximately 45 minutes on the (front) northern side, 20 to 30 minutes inside the eye, and then the worst part comes with another 45 minutes from the backside.

Mexico Beach will look like Homestead, FL, after Hurricane Andrew in 1992.  Few structures can withstand sustained 155mph winds for two to three hours.

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139 Responses to Hurricane Michael Makes Landfall Near Mexico Beach as 155 MPH Cat4 Storm….

  1. smiley says:

    Liked by 11 people

    • Deplorable_Infidel says:

      “the 4th strongest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. in recorded history (1851)”

      I would like to know how they get these wind speed measurements.

      From SD:

      “Wind gauges near the AFB recorded wind speeds of 130mph prior to equipment failure.”

      If memory serves correctly, the instruments were ripped off the roof (or taken out by debris) from the National Hurricane Center bunker during Andrew, so actual speeds could have been higher. After Andrew, there was evidence of 200 mph+ winds made during the damage assessments. However, it could not be ascertained if those were straight line hurricane winds or from mini-tornadoes spawned inside the storm.

      Liked by 2 people

    • andyocoregon says:

      Hurricane Michael has hit land with 175 mph wind gusts. Those are totally devastating force winds.

      Liked by 4 people

    • agesilaus says:

      The news people keep saying this storm is the strongest to ever hit the panhandle. I kept wondering about Camille and your chart shows it was much stronger.

      Like

      • The Tundra PA says:

        The eye of Camille hit Mississippi. I was there.

        Liked by 1 person

      • penny munday says:

        Camille hit the Mississippi/Alabama coast. Went thru central Mississippi not long after, and along the coast on the return trip so that we could see the two ships that were beached. Still remember that devastation throughout the state. Fam we were visiting were fortunate to have minimal damage on the eastern edge of the storm.

        Like

    • ATheoK says:

      False claim.
      False metric.

      Combination of which is only possible for the last few decades.

      The complete historical record only dates back 200-300 years. Since, a powerful hurricane wiped a spanish settlement at what is now Panama City, off of the map and killed all residents.
      The Spanish evacuated the Emerald coast and didn’t try another settlement there for over 100 years.

      Like

  2. Nigella says:

    As bad as I feared… Prayers

    Liked by 13 people

  3. MrACC says:

    Stay safe Sundance. God bless you and your team while helping those in need over the coming days and weeks.

    Liked by 10 people

  4. sundance says:

    Liked by 10 people

  5. amwick says:

    It looked like a lawn mower…. smh….

    Like

  6. Will says:

    Wow, that’s terrible damage. Hope everyone got out or was in a building strong enough to withstand as the folks filming that clip must have been. I posted a storm chaser video on the earlier hurricane thread where the guy was driving straight into the 150mph winds hitting Mexico Beach. Finally turned around when large pieces of debris starting hitting his truck. But these clips above are even worse than what his clips showed.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Horrifying to see the damage. God keep everyone safe.

    Liked by 5 people

  8. Plain Jane says:

    Prayers for all involved in any way.

    Liked by 4 people

  9. HelloGovernorDeSantis says:

    Power out in Tallahassee. Wind is gusty, not very rainy, tree falls not really evident yet.

    Hanging in there. Hoping everyone in PCB area got out and is safe.

    4pm.

    Liked by 6 people

  10. bonami says:

    Hi all, some info from Jim Stone on the storm who says the winds are only 95mph to a absolute max of 11mph. He feels the storm is being misreported to justify a coming carbon tax:
    HERE IS WHAT WE SHOULD SEE IF MICHAEL REALLY HAD 155 MPH WINDS:
    1. Trains blown off tracks.
    2. Cars thrown through houses.
    3. No homes anywhere that were not considerably damaged
    4. Not one gas station left standing.
    5. Serious damage to industrial buildings that were very well built.
    6. Virtually no trees standing, with many snapped off at the roots, leaving only a shredded stump.
    7. Absolutely no billboards remaining, totally gone, frame and all and not just the face ripped off.
    8. All highway signs gone.

    Like

    • smiley says:

      but barometric pressure doesn’t lie.

      this came in at 918 mb…Cat 5 is at least 920 mb.

      Liked by 5 people

      • Trump Train says:

        regardless ever video i saw the winds were nowhere near that. For those of us who been through them know what 100 mph feels and sounds like

        Liked by 1 person

        • smiley says:

          so…that means all of the many many weather geeks not affiliated with Big News were also in on this carbon tax conspiracy ??

          come on.

          Liked by 4 people

          • Mick says:

            Don’t pile on me I have no dog in this fight. With that said, all it would take is to change the numbers from the NOAA WX stations, any other station with different readings could be explained away as an anomaly, or malfunction. Not like anybody would be at those stations during a hurricane, most are unmanned. No need to include more than a few people to make it work.

            Liked by 1 person

            • smiley says:

              it depends on where the strongest winds are rotating….the NE quadrant gets hit the worst…Panama City was not in that…Mexico Beach was.

              and it also depends on how far out those winds extend….hurricane force, TS force etc.

              Liked by 1 person

              • Mick says:

                The biggest tell is what happens next. Does the storm keep on track as the computer models predicted on this information? Or does it peter out? Wee will know soon enough either way.

                Like

                • smiley says:

                  thankfully, it’s moving out and not stalling & spinning for hours…days…on end.

                  sposed to die down fairly quickly, as it moves out.

                  like plummet to Cat 1 winds….beyond that, I haven’t been paying much attention to what it’s predicted to “do” other than cause a tremendous amount of bad weather to everybody who just survived Flo.

                  I don’t think there is any conspiracy with this…if you look at all the radar images alone, that should be enough to convince any reasonable mind that this thing was powerful.

                  Liked by 1 person

                • Cuppa Covfefe says:

                  Look at http://www.weatherbell.com, and click on the daily update by Joe Bastardi, a VERY experienced and impartial weather analyst, forecaster, and expert. The weatherbell site (commercial) is used by major companies and other customers (thing oil companies, etc.) who need up-to-date, accurate, and reliable information.

                  No panic, but no BS whitewashing the problems, either. Stay safe, folks. And as it gets colder, the storms grow less frequent, but more intense… During the “Little Ice Age” it was really gnarly… but they didn’t have instruments to record the speeds, and they didn’t have people building in flood plains, either… (happens a lot in Kalifornistan now)…

                  Liked by 1 person

                • G. Combs says:

                  Joe Bastardi is Da MAN!

                  I wish we had the money to subscribe to his forecasts but they are too general for our purpose.

                  Liked by 1 person

      • smiley says:

        correction..Cat 5 is less than 920 mb.

        Cat 1 is greater than 980 mb.

        Michael, therefore, was almost at a Cat 5 pressure.

        have you not seen any of the structural damage yet ?

        Liked by 2 people

      • JX says:

        pressure gradient is a better estimate

        Like

      • What does barometric pressure have to do with wind speeds?

        Like

    • Deplorable_Infidel says:

      “He feels the storm is being misreported to justify a coming carbon tax:”

      He can “feel” how ever her wants to draw attention to himself and his cause. We have instruments and video. It is natural wind and water, not a nuclear explosion. There were plenty of trees left standing after hurricane Camille, but they were not in very good shape.

      Liked by 3 people

    • talker2u says:

      Thanks for this, bonami. I also don’t buy into weather reporting where there is way, way too much to gain for The Powerful through deception and lying.

      Witnessing God through worldly occurrences can bring fear, and once afraid, we often relinquish our God-given soul powers that enable us to persevere and succeed.

      Then The Powerful pounce.

      Liked by 1 person

    • andyocoregon says:

      Loony liberal environmentalists will use this terrible storm as a pretext to justify their carbon tax proposals regardless of how strong it actually is. That’s why they changed their mantra from Global Warming to Climate Change a few years ago.

      Like

      • Cuppa Covfefe says:

        Happening in Germany already. Supposedly Merde-kel has a Doctorate in Physics and Chemistry, yet she has no clue that the last Tsunami experienced by Germany was the Great Flood (which she should know about, being a Pastor’s daughter…oh, wait, so is Katy Perry…).

        The biggest problem with these environuts is that when some REALLY goes sideways, people won’t look or care (little-boy-cried-wolf-syndrome). Thank GOD that VSGPDJT and FEMA have a handle on it. And, in any case, better safe than sorry.

        (And my last gripe, get those power and utility lines/pipes underground. After you’ve replaced overheads four or five times, you could well have paid for doing it right. Until the birdchoppers arrived, we had NO (zero, zilch, nada, null) power failures where I’ve lived in Germany (Hessen and South Germany). Same is true for the other states.)…

        Like

    • Coast says:

      I saw some footage taken in Panama Beach where a yard sign was still standing upright…along with other realtor signs, street signs, and a small trailer with an overhang roof still intact.

      Like

    • alligatriot says:

      Conspiracy theories are fun. But when your roof is off your house and all your worldly possessions are wet and likely gone forever, you just don’t care how strong the wind was, who benefits from the destruction, who “geoengineered” it, what politician says what – NONE OF THAT MATTERS!

      My brother’s house is likely a total loss. Thankfully, he and family are safe a few hundred miles away.

      Prayers for all.

      Liked by 5 people

    • sundance says:

      That is a poor way to evaluate.

      The 155mph winds are very tight in location. They only pertain to the eyewall. If the eye is compact and narrow the scale of those described impacts is felt over a very compact area.

      The width of the eye determines the geographic scale of the devastation. Andrew (’92) had a very wide eye which meant the devastation was far more widespread. Conversely Charley (’04) was a very narrow eye, so the devastation was in a more compact geographic area.

      Michael is much more like Charley than Andrew.

      Fortunately, with Michael, the 155mph wind devastation will be in a very small (only about 30 mile wide) swath of damage. Andrew was over a 100 mile swath of damage because the eye was much wider.

      Liked by 19 people

      • Thank you for that. Best explanation.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Suzanne says:

        I was living in Sebring hunkered down when Charley blew through and Sundance is absolutely correct. At my house I had a couple of miscellaneous branches down and a bunch of leaf litter. A couple of miles west of my house all the trees were snapped clean off 10 to 12 feet above the ground. I evacuated for the three more hurricanes that followed Charley over the next 5 weeks.

        Liked by 1 person

      • mtk says:

        I looked at a google map of Mexico Beach area. Saying this mindful of the personal tradegy for those in Mexico Beach Area.

        It is a small community, likely in the range of less than 300 homes and the typical assiociated businesses of a beach community of that size.

        It is going to be a complete lost. My heart and prayers with those hit hard.

        However there is no inland depth to this community, once off the coastal strip, it is all brush and then behind that farmland.

        It will be of interest to see how St. Joseph Barrier Peninsula holds up. My guess is not well Then the communities to East of the barrier peninsula of Highland View and Port St Joe may experience very high storm surge.

        Panama City and Panama City Beach are likely going to be exposed to Category 2 winds and moderate surge.
        Due to the quadrant of the storm Michael is slamming them with.

        Not sure how much rain is being dropped on the area, however the storm is moving along and not stalling.

        Good news, if huge amounts of rain is being drop, once inland the main affected areas are going to be well served by the full extent of the Apalachicola River Basin. Little development within this basin seeing it is Wildlife Preserve.

        For what it is worth from a macro economic impact perspective, if a Category 4 storm was to hit the Pan Handle of Florida. This was the place for it to hit, as opposed to hitting an area with hundreds of billion of dollars of infrastructure.

        Keep praying that the eye wall starts to degrade rapidily as it moves inland.

        Otherwise this assessment for communities behind and to North of the farmland that are going to experience the storm could take a server blow from very destructive winds.

        Liked by 1 person

        • agesilaus says:

          I’ve been thru Mexico Beach a number of times. Yes it is a small town. Panama City is close tho and if is also getting pounded. Panama City is not all that big either. No consolation to the folks who live there but this is a low population density area of the state so it is fortuitous that the hit was here. Destin Beach would have been much worse.

          Tallahassee is inland tho and that is a much larger population, hopefully the storm lost strength before getting there.

          Like

    • starfcker says:

      Dude, who are you kidding? Look at the infrared image of that storm. They don’t get much better form than that. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen more ignorance on these pages in the five or six years that I’ve been reading here. Those things are no joke. The area they hit is going to be flattened. They’re going to be without power for 6 months minimum. And it’s going to take years to rebuild. There’s going to be that’s from this one, because people are too dumb to leave. They don’t have a South Florida building code there. Pray for these people. They just got their ass kicked. Badly

      Liked by 3 people

      • starfcker says:

        And I wasn’t talking to you, Sundance. Somehow my comment ended up in this order. I’m just shaking my head at the people who don’t think this is a devastating storm. That’s insanity. This is going to be a life-changing event for a lot of people. Humbling stuff.

        Liked by 5 people

        • Somebody says:

          The building codes were changed for the entire state after Andrew and they’ve since been strengthened a couple times more. However, a lot of the homes in that area are older. Even with the best building codes they took one heck of a hit.

          Liked by 1 person

      • Trump Train says:

        The point is the false reporting…………the fake news makes it sound like there is a massive cat 4/5 winds encompassing the whole area. For the intelligent among us, Sundace notes properly the situation. Regardless over 100 and tis your ass.

        Like

        • Somebody says:

          The reporters always make it sound like the end of the world……if it bleeds it leads.

          Speaking of reporters I am so sick of them standing in the rains doing live shots 🙄

          Like

        • Another Scott says:

          The reporting is justified. This was a powerful one and caused serious devastation. Regarding global warming and general alarmist propaganda my observation is this storm intensified too quickly for the propaganda machine to fully spin up so you haven’t had to endure days of end of the world stories only hours.

          Like

  11. sobriquet4u says:

    My prayers for those in Mexico Beach. Have spent a lot of time there and it was one of the last “old Floridian towns”. They had yet to succumb to fast food and walmarts. Just laid back and loveable. Hopefully the carpetbaggers don’t show up after this and ruin it.

    Liked by 6 people

    • Ronnie says:

      Have fond memories of lunch in Mexico Beach last November, with bikers and local residents. A little bit of (old FL) heaven. Not many native Floridians left so really enjoyed our time there. We leave for 1 month vacation in the panhandle next week; maybe we can help.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Somebody says:

      You know they will

      Like

  12. ogoggilby says:

    Live Coverage ABC News:

    Liked by 1 person

  13. MontanaMel says:

    Hug that fireplug and make sure you duct-tapped your snorkel to your head….it’s fixing to get down right nasty! Check-6 and God Bless

    Like

  14. screwauger says:

    Prayers and hope for the people in and around the landfall area. My goodness!!

    Like

  15. fleporeblog says:

    WOW! Absolutely shocking when you view all those videos. I just pray that folks in that area evacuated and took their pets with them. For those that stayed behind, all I can do is pray that they are still alive.

    Liked by 6 people

  16. positron1352 says:

    Praying to our Lord for you , Sundance, and all of those in the path. May God protect you all and your property.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. V.I.G. says:

    My heart feels for them. My wife and I live in a burb of NOLA and my wife is a local, who lived through the destruction of her hometown.

    We plan on taking a couple days of vacation next week. To join our church group and head to FL to help them out.

    Liked by 10 people

  18. sundance says:

    Liked by 16 people

  19. TeaForAll says:

    Sundance
    Please let us know where we can send money to help Florida
    Stay safe Treepers and Sundance
    Our prayers and thoughts are with you all
    Tea

    Liked by 2 people

  20. scrap1ron says:

    Hard to imagine anyone trying to ride that out in a single story wood frame home could survive it.

    Like

  21. Maquis says:

    Can we cuff reporters to poles to function as wind indicators?
    😈

    Liked by 6 people

    • Kent says:

      Just go straight to mad max….I’ll bet that loudmouth could be heard all the way to Georgia even in a massive hurricane….and her ugly could push it off track a few degrees….

      Like

  22. MontanaMel says:

    Samaritans’ Purse is always early on the scene and late to leave…well run…their field kitchens are world class disaster aid! Well over 90% of every dollar donated reaches someone in need!! You can find them online. GOD BLESS ALL IN THESE AREAS…hang on!

    Liked by 11 people

  23. Coast says:

    The damage so far that I see on the news….not too bad. Not that I wish I was there. Mexico Beach I’m sure is a mess.

    Liked by 1 person

  24. Will says:

    CNN just interviewed live the family who took the videos from Mexico Beach above which SD posted. They rode it out in a four story reinforced concrete condo building but were terrified as it shook and leaned. Grandma just moved there 2.5 months ago from Miami and lived through Andrew in 1992. Says this one’s damage in Mexico Beach is the same as Andrew. Says the water is 12 to 15 feet deep right below their condo building (houses can be seen in SD’s stills with water up to the roofline). Brother has a house right on the beach which is “completely gone”. When asked why they didn’t evacuate, says “we did not think it would get this bad”. These people are very, very, very, very lucky. I hope they have supplies for the next several weeks.

    Liked by 6 people

  25. Gil says:

    Maybe when the water recedes and “Mexico” beach is ready to clean up, they might consider renaming the area to “Resurrection” beach.
    I heard shep say lagoons were emptied dt direction of wind.
    Any video of it?

    Like

  26. Ziiggii says:

    I’m not able to watch the radar/sat images, but has it really already stoped raining in Panama City?

    Liked by 1 person

  27. MontanaMel says:

    We use to use 30ft of log chain and 9-5/8″ drill bits on the north slope of AK for wind gauge… I think it originated out on Shimea or Attu islands during WW-II, Didn’t start working until 40-50 kts..

    I did witness the destruction of a NWS grade wind speed device on the ODECO RANGER semi submersible drilling platform….Gulf of AK, +/-1975…recorded 138 kts of speed and then stopped working…blown overboard we found the next day…our “up wind” anchors recorded over 2 million lbs of “pull” or strain on our event logging system. Double ugly….we did NOT continue drilling during this storm…we hung off in the BOPE and circulated for over 30 hours… Working for ARCO at the time…sister ship was Odeco Bounty, it almost sunk during the same blow… about 17 miles to our north-west. Check-6

    Liked by 6 people

    • Kent says:

      I can’t help but wonder what wind speed would it take to make that chain stick straight out like a mudflap on a logging truck?…..

      Like

  28. Pam says:

    Michael is now a cat 3.

    Liked by 1 person

  29. Pam says:

    Like

  30. Pam says:

    Liked by 2 people

  31. Mick says:

    Update on the two Darwin candidates traveling from Port ST Joe to Mexico Beach to live stream the eye come ashore.

    They had to abandon the truck, and were able to break into a home on stilts. The homeowner watched the stream, and contacted one of the guys wife on facebook, to let her know that he was OK with them taking shelter in his boarded up home. They broke in through a back door, and called home, and are OK, stranded but OK. No word on their truck that was live streaming it’s dashcam video as it was swept away.

    Link to FB page https://www.facebook.com/bamastormchaser

    Video of the event as it unfolded is a great teaching aid for what not to do during a hurricane.

    Liked by 6 people

  32. Sunflower Lady says:

    Many prayers for Florida and everyone in the hurricane’s path. I thank God for the hard working people who will be helping with the recovery. God bless you all!

    Like

  33. Ziiggii says:

    Like

  34. clipe says:

    “Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts”

    Are these surface measurements?

    Like

  35. smiley says:

    5 pm…POWER OUTAGE update…

    Liked by 1 person

  36. Stay safe everyone!

    Like

  37. Blue Moon says:

    Wow is all I can say. That was a monster and it isn’t done yet. The devastation is unreal. Prayers for these people who didn’t evacuate.

    Like

  38. Ziiggii says:

    NO IT DIDN’T MAYOR!

    Liked by 1 person

  39. Sunshinesam says:

    My grandparents live in Gordon, Alabama (30 minutes from Marianna, Fl and 30 minutes from Dothan.). My uncle is with them and told us trees are down everywhere. One fell on their roof. One fell on my grandpa’s classic truck. He said they are still getting hit hard. Crazy!

    Liked by 2 people

  40. millwright says:

    Sad to see storm damage anywhere, but coastal plain and flood plain events always make me think ” Hubris ” . Despite the well-documented risks people continue to build primary homes in areas vulnerable to major storm events . Its always a gamble and sometimes you lose . Ground-level stick-built housing on a storm coast ? Great for a fishing shack or beach escape TBS, but if you want permanence seems piles, SRC and wind shutters are better engineering choices . Still I pray most will have lost little but their ‘ proud-ofs’ ..

    Liked by 1 person

  41. Ziiggii says:

    Liked by 1 person

  42. Fools Gold says:

    Wife, daughter and 2 grandaughters enjoyed Panama City beach about month ago. I bet it unrecognizable now…praying for the folks who stuck around thinking everything was gonna be alright. Son, wife and 4 other grandchildren were in orlando Disney and left early yesterday at 5pm instead of today. They made it back to Tn. Early this am just fine. Some folks seem to lack common sense…

    Liked by 1 person

  43. G. Combs says:

    On the global warming idiocy. Stronger storms are a sign of GLOBAL COOLING not warming. 🙄

    As the earth approaches glaciation the climate will become increasingly unstable. Wild weather is the mark of an ice age and NOT the mark of a warm interglacial. This is because of the increase in temperature differential between the equator and the poles during glaciation.

    Even if the earth does not go full Ice Age the earth will be at the threshold of glaciation for thousands of years. A threshold region described as a climatic “madhouse”! by Neuman and Hearty (1996)
    Rapid Sea-level Changes at the Close of the Last Interglacial (substage_5e) Recorded in Bahamian Island Geology

    …Rapid changes in sea level and associated destabilization of climate at the turbulent close of the last interglacial maximum appear to be recorded directly in the geomorphology, stratigraphy, and sedimentary structures of carbonate platform islands in the Bahamas. Considered together, the observations presented here suggest a rapid rise, short crest, and rapid fall of sea level at the close of 5e.

    The lesson from the last interglacial “greenhouse” in the Bahamas is that the closing of that interval brought sea-level changes that were rapid and extreme. This has prompted the remark that between the greenhouse and the icehouse lies a climatic “madhouse”!

    Loutre and Berger’s 2003 paper, based on models, said the Holocene would go long and be a double precession cycle. Loutre and Berger focused on MIS 11, the only known double precession cycle as a possible analog for the Holocene.

    More recent papers refute this.

    New MIS 19 EPICA Dome C high resolution deuterium data: Hints for a problematic
    preservation of climate variability at sub-millennial scale in the “oldest ice”
    Jouzel et al., (2007)

    ABSTRACT
    Marine Isotope Stage 19 (MIS 19) is the oldest interglacial period archived in the EPICA Dome C ice core (~ 780 ky BP) and the closest “orbital analogue” to the Holocene — albeit with a different obliquity amplitude and phase with precession…..

    During the glacial inception from MIS 19 to MIS 18, the low resolution EPICA Dome C water stable isotope record (Jouzel et al., 2007) has revealed millennial variability principally marked by the occurrence of three consecutive warm events (hereafter called Antarctic Isotope Maxima – AIM, following EPICA-community-members, 2006, and noted A, B, C on Fig. 2)…..

    …This comparison shows the lack of a perfect orbital analogue but highlights that, as seen on Fig. 1, the orbital context of MIS 19 is closer to the present one than during MIS 5e or 11….

    The post Holocene Climate Optimum warm events, are: the Medieval Warm Period, Roman and Minoan. As of 2014 the Holocene is exactly 11,717 years old (based on the end of the Younger Dryas cold interval). The precession cycle itself varies between 19 and 23kyrs and we are at the 23kyr part of that cycle now, making 11,500 half.

    An even more robust paper based on A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic D18O records by Lisiecki & Raymo (2005) disagree with Loutre and Berger’s conclusions.

    ABSTRACT
    We present a 5.3-Myr stack (the ‘‘LR04’’ stack) of benthic d18O records from 57 globally distributed sites aligned by an automated graphic correlation algorithm. This is the first benthic d18O stack composed of more than three records to extend beyond 850 ka,…

    RESULTS
    Recent research has focused on MIS 11 as a possible analog for the present interglacial [e.g., Loutre and Berger, 2003; EPICA Community Members, 2004] because both occur during times of low eccentricity. The LR04 age model establishes that MIS 11 spans two precession cycles, with d18O values below 3.6% for 20 kyr, from 398 – 418 ka. In comparison, stages 9 and 5 remained below 3.6% for 13 and 12 kyr, respectively, and the Holocene interglacial has lasted 11 kyr so far. In the LR04 age model, the average LSR of 29 sites is the same from 398– 418 ka as from 250–650 ka; consequently, stage 11 is unlikely to be artificially stretched. However, the 21 June insolation minimum at 65°N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘‘double precession cycle’’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence….

    A late Eemian aridity pulse in central Europe during the last glacial inception Sirocko and Seelos, 2005

    Investigating the processes that led to the end of the last interglacial period is relevant for understanding how our ongoing interglacial will end, which has been a matter of much debate…..

    ….The onset of the LEAP occurred within less than two decades, demonstrating the existence of a sharp threshold, which must be near 416 Wm2, which is the 65oN July insolation for 118 kyr BP (ref. 9). This value is only slightly below today’s value of 428 Wm2. Insolation will remain at this level slightly above the glacial inception for the next 4,000 years before it then increases again…..”

    That is a heck of a long time to be sitting on the edge of a cliff waiting for other factors to push the earth into glaciation.

    Liked by 1 person

  44. Folks, I’m going to BUST alot of bubbles here..
    **NO WAY** this Storm came ashore a Cat 5 or CAT 4…. Or 3..
    MORE like a Mid-Level CAT 2.. IF that..
    (I’ve been “observing” the Buoys off shore)..
    NONE SUPPORTED “CAT 4 or 5” at the Surface offshore.. NONE..
    REMEMBER THIS ,, NONE!.. EVERYONE GOING ON THE NHC, “Flight level winds”.. & dropsondes..
    phhifft.. >spit “His truck would have been lifted and thrown; I would have watched him die on live video. It didn’t happen. –> Much like,, AKA Rusty Wallace at Talladega.. Or a 2013 Wild wreck @ Daytona.. @ 150 mph..
    (think about it)..

    Yes, Mexico Beach and parts of PC got trashed — mostly by surge. (Happened here in Wilmington too).. Same thing as pictured..

    No big shock there. But most of those buildings you’re seeing have intact roofs. Not all (there’s a fair bit of older stuff over there that was not designed to modern codes) but most.
    And that’s important because in a Cat 4+ storm there’s damn near nothing left; that’s an EF3 tornado!

    Hurricanes are nasty but let’s stop with the bull**t. The video coming in (and the livestreams) do not support Cat 4 or 5 winds — and neither does the available set of data from wind gauges right at impact. In the same videos you see someone’s roof go flying there’s a billboard that’s standing proud, tall and undamaged. (Or a Gas Station Canopy) Or..
    At one point I saw a “Stop sign” It SHOULD of been Ripped off or broken at 120mph+ THEY are now designed to do this! Or in case of cars hitting them they are designed to break at the base..

    That does not happen in a Cat 4 storm. (Or the Gas Canopy I saw still left standing)..

    The reason you board up your house is in evidence right there in those videos. In a Cat 4 or 5, it does not matter as the entire building, unless it’s reinforced concrete or similar, will be flattened. If you get surged you’re screwed.
    The reason you board up your house is that in a Cat 1 or 2 and moderate 3 if your house and roof is up to code and if you do not get hit with surge it will remain intact right up until the guy down the street, who doesn’t have a place up to said code or has a bunch of crap laying around in his yard winds up generating missiles that go through your windows!

    The “homes that were there and were moved” and are destroyed are nearly all mobile homes – and there are a lot of them in that area. That’s very typical Cat 1 or 2 damage; most to all mobile homes will be destroyed in a Cat 1 or 2.
    Again, there were LOTS of Mobile Homes in the area(s) affected!
    The same that happened here in Surf City, NC..
    They simply cannot take 100mph winds.

    I’m not trying to make light of this storm folks. .

    If you were between Panama City and Apalachicola, or even east to Carabelle and similar and in a place subject to surge, or in a mobile home, or in a structure **NOT** built to modern codes for the (Last 30+ years),, your roof in particular then yes, you got your roof ripped off or Flooded,

    But the damage I’m seeing is typical of a Cat 2 — not a Cat 4.

    Those running a politicized level of “reporting” on storms like this do a great disservice. When an actual Cat 4 or 5 impact looms those who went through this one, didn’t get surged and were in modern construction will stay and die.

    We must put a stop to this sort of “grade inflation” especially among those doing it for political (e.g. Globullshit warming) reasons — they are going to get people killed.
    This said, a experienced Hurricane “Survivor” Since 1969 here in SENC..

    I “tracked this Storm via **Buoys** NONE of them even showed “Cat 4 or Cat 3” winds on the open Ocean..
    CT..
    Also credits to the “Tickerguy” I added and left some of His Montage in place..
    NOW,, here is something Legit..
    Its really cool.. I’ve only seen this happen once..

    Liked by 1 person

    • millwright says:

      CT: Nice to see more science and fact ! I’m sure all the data is recorded and available for post-event review . Now if we just get the government and local types to get aboard the ‘zoning train’ and require anything rebuilt or replaced in these areas be able to withstand Cat 3 or 4 storms . I’ll also add we have the same issues with flood plain rebuilding . Then there’s the idiocacy of permitting stick/plastic unsealable tinderbox housing in fire-prone areas served with overhead electric power .

      Liked by 2 people

  45. **SUNDANCE**
    RECLASSIFY THIS STORM AS A STRONG CAT 2..
    IT DID NOT come in as a “CAT 4″…
    (LOOK at some DATA)..
    AND I’m NOT talking about the NHC.. (look at buoys etc)..
    The factual evidence..
    Ya’ll got a strong Cat 2.. FACT.

    Like

    • This was taken offshore @ 11CDT, from the AirForce “buoy” ,, I got a snapshot before it was taken down
      LOOK
      NHC has been “politized”..

      Liked by 1 person

      • Melanie says:

        I Agree. In Andrew, Cars Were Flying Through The Air, Laying Atop Houses! I was 39 miles from the Epicenter. Every Street Sign was gone, blown away. No Traffic Lights at all.. Like Sundance stated in his excellent “aftermath”. We did not have any indication where we were after the storm.

        Liked by 1 person

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