A Suffolk University “non-media” poll released today shows exceptionally good news for candidate Donald Trump in the quest to overcome the rigged system. Unlike most media funded polls, the Suffolk poll is very extensive and provides full disclosure on all aspects of the construct allowing for comprehensive research, analysis and evaluation.
The general top line result shows Donald Trump winning with 44%, and Hillary Clinton 41%. However, the fully disclosed methodology provides an even greater level of optimism. Here’s why:
This survey of 500 likely North Carolina general election voters was conducted between September 5 and September 7, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information — including race and age — was determined from previous like elections (link)
We have already statistically quantified the significant variances from 2012 to 2016. Suffolk relying on baselines from ’08 and ’12 presidential models means they are under evaluating the ’16 Trump enthusiasm and Trump registration gap.
Again, Suffolk provides full disclosure and sunlight; their use of historical reference for current cycle is honestly disclosed and understandable.
Additionally: Here’s the key takeaways that, when added to the (understandable) assumption, underscore the exponential optimism:
The poll itself holds a D+9 benefit toward Democrats, which would generally be a benefit to Hillary Clinton.
♦ However, much like Florida (16%), Trump is pulling in large percentages of Democrats. In North Carolina 12% of Democrats are voting Trump.
♦ Additionally, Trump has a 17 point lead with independent voters. 46% Trump, 29% Clinton. (see below)
(Crosstab Banner #1)
Again, the weighting applied to the poll -with low MOE (4%)- is based on historical outcomes from ’08 and ’12 presidential election cycles. Donald Trump has continuously outperformed the Romney campaign in 2012 on all metrics. There is no indication the same trend does not overlay in North Carolina.
In Summary: The top line result of Trump 44 / Clinton 41, when weighed against the reality of visible campaign support in North Carolina (discussed here), appears significantly under-valued for Donald Trump; and that’s ok. The predictive discussion angle should always be kept separate and apart from scientific polling. Like Florida, North Carolina now appears to be solidly in the Trump column.
It would be awesome if all polling was conducted with a similar level of professionalism, sunlight, and disclosure. Alas, 90% of emphasized polling is nonsense “media polling” which never includes the raw data, weighting and assumption disclosures.
Trump in North Carolina
Clinton in North Carolina
It won’t even be close folks…