Gallup Poll: Donald Trump Currently Holds 32% of National Hispanic Vote…

Stop The Presses…..

2 candidate trump vs clinton - Gallup Hispanic

There’s something odd that seems to consistently happen when corporate Wall Street media narratives are in diametric opposition to factual reality; they begin a process of trying to quantify their fallacy.

An example today comes from the notoriously globalist-minded Gallup Polling Group. But first, it’s important to understand the Gallup ideology (just to avoid being labeled “conspiratorial” etc.) – in their own words:

[…] Gallup has committed the next century to achieving a global endeavor of peerless magnitude, integrity, and strategic value — the Gallup World Poll. Gallup’s World Poll continually surveys the wellbeing, behaviors, and attitudes of the world’s citizens in more than 130 countries and areas — from the steppes of Central Asia to the savannahs of Africa — and provides a new access point to the voices, hearts, and minds of samples representing 95% of the Earth’s adult population. Worldwide core questions, as well as region-specific questions, are asked across countries over time, which enables leaders to compare data and spot emerging social and economic trends.

Globalization requires leaders to scrutinize how their nations, economies, and organizations not only fit into the dynamic global landscape, but also promote growth and create partnerships. The World Poll provides these insights by continually measuring key indicators such as Leadership, Law and Order, Food/Shelter, Work, Economics, Health, Wellbeing, Migration, Environment, Education, Entrepreneurship, and Engaged Citizens.  (read more)

As you can see, every effective measure has an intent.  While the media users of the data never talk about those intents, the intents -nonetheless- exist transparently.

Which leads to the Gallup presentation of the day, in essence they’re gauging: Can U.S.A. Hispanics/Latinos upset (ie. block) the pending tsunami of newly engaged non-Hispanic voters? (ie. white Americans)

Curiously, Gallup looks at Latinos two ways: ¹Those born in the U.S., and ²Those Not born in the U.S., with each measure attempting to quantify the support for Hillary Clinton.

Their analysis, while slanted by the ideological objectives mentioned above, actually indicates the Hispanic/Latino support for Hillary Clinton is much weaker and less influential than popular opinion (mostly by media) claims it to be.

Group Two – U.S. born Hispanics are registered to vote at approximately a level of 87%. Group One – Non-U.S. born Hispanics, hold only 28% voter registration levels. (Chart Below):

gallup 1 hispanic

Less than half the larger group (the 87% born in U.S. group) support Hillary Clinton about 4/10 do (43% +/-).  And about 3/10 (29%) support Donald Trump.

In the smaller registered voter group (28% Non-U.S. born Hispanics), support for Hillary Clinton is much higher: 87% pro-Hillary, and 13% pro-Trump.   (Chart Below):

gallup 2 hispanic

This is really interesting because it actually undermines the past six years of media narrative, although Gallup doesn’t present it that way.

Q: What does all of the Gallup data amount to?

Using their methodology (full pdf below) and extending their analysis, and assuming it is correct:

gallup 3 hispanic toplines

♦ Gallup has a sample of 906 total Hispanics  [n=906].

♦ Gallup has a registered voter sample of 525  Hispanics (58%). [rv = 525]

  • Of the 525 registered voters: 456 are U.S. Born [87% of rv]
  • Of the 525 registered voters: 147 are Non-U.S. Born [28% of rv]

(Link to Gallup Article)

  • From the 456 U.S. Born Hispanics, Clinton gets 43% or 196 voters
  • From the 456 U.S. Born Hispanics, Trump gets 29% or 132 voters.

(Link To Gallup Article)

  • From the 147 Non-U.S. Born Hispanics, Clinton gets 87% or 128 voters
  • From the 147 Non-U.S. Born Hispanics, Trump gets 13% or 19 voters

Adding up the total voter support above you find 479 total votes [rv – non-committed].

Those total Hispanic votes break down:

  • Hillary Clinton Clinton 324 votes (68%)
  • Candiate Donald Trump 151 votes (32%)

Yes, that’s correct.

2 candidate trump vs clinton - Gallup Hispanic

Folks This is Bigly Huge

Donald Trump is currently getting at least 32% of all National Hispanic Support according to Gallup’s own data.

But you’ll note that didn’t quite get the headline Gallup was pushing, did it?

See, it won’t be close folks…. it won’t even be close:

Republican voter turnout projected 2

trump chicks 23trump chicks 22latinos for trump 5

People who enjoy math and statistics please feel free to double check this analysis.  I was so shocked I checked it myself three times.  This is excellent news.

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This entry was posted in Donald Trump, Election 2016, media bias. Bookmark the permalink.

222 Responses to Gallup Poll: Donald Trump Currently Holds 32% of National Hispanic Vote…

  1. lorac says:

    Folks This is Bigly Huge

    SDC, I think you meant to say BIgly Yuge 🙂 Full Trumpism lol

    Like

  2. John R says:

    Let’s Try this a different way. (based on my previous comments and math above.

    Firstly: Assuming that only registered voters will be voting and they are actually eligible, There are 525 Registered voters in this poll. Secondly, assuming favorability = a vote, taking note of and ignoring the problem that the same voter can have favorable views of both candidates (double counting) or unfavorable views of both (no counting).

    A problem with that math (previously described in more detail above) is that to do the analysis Sundance applied the favorability percentages for all (registered and unregistered) to the subset of registered voters. Whereas most of Donald Trump favorablity is likely coming from the registered and eligible to vote both foreign and US born. THIS UNDERSTIMATES THE SUPPORT FOR TRUMP, as the favorability is “watered down” in the overall population by those not registered to vote or here illegally and unable to register.

    My premise is that those here legally, foreign born, and registered to vote have gone through the process legally and have become American Citizens. This group of the foreign born likely account for all or nearly all of the 13% favorable to Trump of the foreign born. With this assumption, of the Foreign Born (446) in the Poll who are registered to vote (125) account for the 58 persons favorable to Trump (446*.13), 58 of the 125 foreign born registered to vote = 46% support among this group of registered voters.

    Conversely, for Clinton assuming 58 of the 125 are favorable to Trump, the maximum support from these voters for Clinton is 125 – 58 or 67. The maximum Clinton support of 67 of 125 equates to a 54% favorability in this group.

    My bias and assumption would be that the born in the US group would have a similar flaw (i.e., the 29% that favor Trump more likely come from those registered to vote but not as strongly as in the foreign born who must now be American citizens if they are registered to vote). I would guess, and assume that for foreign born who become US citizens Trump’s message may be stronger than for those born in the US – a subset of these likely are born to foreign parents who are not here legally and therefore may not be as favorable to Trump. For lack of a better option, I will split the difference between 46% from Foreign born registered to vote and favorable to Trump and 29% (registered and unregistered US born) This would give 38% favorable to Trump among this group of registered voters making the maximum Clinton Vote 62% of the registered US born.

    However, the Clinton favorablity for US born for registered and unregistered is only 43%. Clearly this group (registered and unregistered US Born), a large percentage are neither favorable to Trump or to Clinton. i.e., (29% favorable to Trump 43% to Clinton) A large amount of hispanic folks US born do not have favorable views of either. For simplicity, let’s assume that the group of US born not registered to vote are not favorable to either candidate and Clinton’s 43% favorable is coming entirely from those registered. (.43 * 460 US born ) or 198 favorable to clinton out of 400 registered = 49% MAX support for Clinton from US Born Registered to Vote. As a check on the 38% favorable to Trump, if we made the same assumption as for Clinton (29% favorable is coming from the registered group, no favorables coming from unregisterd) that leads to (133/400) 33% Trump support. (let’s go with this as a lower bound.)

    This leads to Trump votes of Foreign Born 58 + US Born 152 (38% of 400 registered) or 210 votes for Trump.

    This leads to Clinton votes of Foreign Born 67 + US Born 198 or 265 votes for Clinton.

    Total Votes 475 out of 525 registered to vote foreign and US born

    TRUMP 44% / Clinton 56%

    If the lower bound 33% Trump support were used among US born registerd:

    TRUMP 42% / Clinton 58%

    Of course this is all contingent on where the favorabilty splits are made among the registered voters and the need to have one answer i.e, if you (a single voter) has unfavorable or favorable views of both candidates equally.

    Liked by 3 people

    • HolyLoly says:

      My second and last word on the matter.

      I hate statistics. I majored in psych and had to take it even though my plan was to be a clinical psychologist, not a researcher. My college teacher gave me a “C” which I did not deserve. Six weeks in and I was lost.

      Still, I can do basic math and you simply cannot wind up with more than 100 percent of a fixed number without there being a mistake somewhere. I think gallup’s numbers are too complicated and fuzzy to be trusted. And there is no way I believe 87% of U.S. born Hispanics are registered to vote. In any sample.

      Liked by 3 people

      • James Lang says:

        Thank you for summing up lazy liberals perfectly

        Liked by 1 person

      • John R says:

        Two points: – where are you seeing more than 100% of a fixed number? If you are looking at Trumps support 13% and 29% and see that he get’s higher support in the analysis – it is because the analysis is about who will vote so you get the ratio of Clinton versus Trump i.e. for US born it looks to be 29/43 – where the 28% remaining aren’t assigned (don’t vote) so the outcome is based on 29/72 and 43/72.

        Second: The mistake or critical point, however you look at it, is that Gallup is not trying to determine votes, but rather favorability. This means they ask each person for their favorability on Trump and Clinton based on the range described. Then they only report out on those who said they had a favorable or very favorable view of the candidate. This leads to strange outcomes if you think about the process. – example 100 people

        20 – have unfavorable views of both candidates so they aren’t reported.
        30 – have favorable views of both candidate so they are reported twice in a sense
        20 – have favorable views of Trump and unfav for Clinton
        30 – have favorable views of Clinton and unfav for Trump

        Gallup Result:
        TRUMP – favorable among the 30 in common and 20 for Trump or: 50% favorable rating
        Clinton – favorable among the 30 in common and 30 for Clinton or 60%

        Step further: how could a Trump 29% and Clinton 43% still be the outcome in an extreme scenario with a sample of 100 people:

        20 – favorable for both
        9 – favorbable to Trump not Clinton
        23 – favorable to Clinton not Trump
        48 – unfavorable for both

        In this scenario it leads to 29% favorability for Trump and 43 Clinton with 48 persons (48%) having unfavorable views of both.

        It leads to questions: how do you decide who to apportion the 20 that have favorable views of both? How do you determine how many of the 48 will vote and if they will, who will it be for. It would help to have the further detail Gallup obviously has which is how many of the 48 are very unfavorable versus unfavorable for each.

        I could have very unfavorable views of both candidates and still prefer the policy and projected benefit to the U.S. of voting for Trump or vice versa Clinton. This is not far fetched and I will guarantee that in this election Clinton will get votes from people who have an unfavorable view of her, and Trump from persons who have an unfavorable view of him.

        Like

    • nurselady says:

      Good work, John. It certainly is a rich field for Trump to approach. His message of respect and safety will play well with these hard working, family oriented citizens. They dig the MAGA message. Thanks for taking time.

      Liked by 1 person

  3. gwsjr425 says:

    In 1984 the GOP got 37% of the Hispanic vote. In 1988, two years after granting amnesty to 6 million illegal aliens, the majority of them hispanic, the GOP got 34% of the hispanic vote. By the lefts logic, that percentage should have gone up.

    Life lesson: pandering doesn’t work.

    Liked by 3 people

  4. lingane says:

    his there not a mistake ? 456 rv born-US + 147 rv born outside= 603

    Like

    • Finalage says:

      No mistake. You’re not suppose to add the RVs for both to get 603, because you have to know the number of US born and non-US born to begin with to use the percentages.

      When you get the actual US born in sample (n = 906) and actual non-US born, then the math works.

      I think the confusion is that Sundance used the right methodology but the wrong numbers but still came out with the right percentage! He should correct the initial numbers so that it’s clear to everyone it checks out.

      If you scroll up in the comments, you will see how I came up with the right numbers using basic algebra.

      Liked by 2 people

  5. Big Jake says:

    Well, it won’t matter. Down here in South Texas, for example, dead Mexicans will vote Clinton 10:1.

    Liked by 3 people

  6. nurselady says:

    Half of all registered voters amounts to appx, 75,000,000. We are well within striking distance of the goal.
    If Trump pounds his message and Dem.- fraud can be curtailed somewhat, He will take the prize.
    Hispanics are attentive in this cycle, and they really do like lawful candidates. The messaging is being tuned properly for them. Trump being Trump is working just fine now.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Mike Hanson says:

    All the Hispanics I know, and I live in San Jose, Ca so I grew up with a ton of them. All the LEGAL and very hard working people I know love our country and most do not like Hillary. They often show more love for this country than most liberals I know. They hate all the illegals getting a free ride here and all the criminals pouring over the borders. They came here to get away from those people and have a better life.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Major Styles says:

    I’m Latino and I’m voting for Trump. After I vote, I will be going for a Taco bowl.

    Liked by 2 people

  9. I think the difficulty in the math is that Gallup didn’t give us the breakdown of how many of the Hispanics polled were foreign-born and how many were native-born.

    Like

  10. Clyde says:

    X = US born; y = non US born
    x + y = 906
    X = 906 – y
    y = 906 – x

    We all agree there are 525 RVs.
    87% of US born are RV; 28% of non US born are RV
    .87x + .28y = 525

    Solve for x and y by substituting 906 – y and 906 – x:
    x = 460; y = 446

    .87 X 460 = 400 RVs born in US
    .28 X 446 = 125 RVs not born in US

    Sundance’s mistake was thinking the article said 87% of RVs were US born and 28% of RVs were non US born.

    .29 X 400 = 116
    .13 X 125 = 16
    Total = 132
    132/525 = 25% Trump’s share of Hispanic RVs

    Liked by 1 person

  11. LBB says:

    This thread makes me smile.
    I can’t help but think about our economy, all the companies involved. and all their takes on accounting practices.
    Can’t wait for President Trump !

    Liked by 1 person

  12. needy latinos says:

    Hillary talking with a Black accent. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWRoEpYuHwI

    Hillary says a Spanish word to con Hispanics to vote. https://www.bustle.com/articles/147049-these-hillary-clinton-basta-jokes-show-her-hispandering-didnt-go-over-too-well

    Hillary insults Mormons by pandering to them..and anyone else she can con…
    Hillary Clinton Panders To Fundamentalist Mormons – YouTube
    Video for hillary panders to mormons spoof▶ 5:50

    Hillary fakes accents to get votes. Just pathetic. What a con artist. Mentally ill.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-22/tracking-hillary-clinton-s-use-of-every-american-accent-east-of-the-mississippi

    Democrats call Latinos “NEEDY” Hillary panders to them as if they’re IDIOTS http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/12/hillary-clinton-campaigns-wikileaks-emails-reveal-/

    PHONY Clinton tries to get Mexican vote! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpwFNFjL8SQ

    LATINOS AGAINST HILLARY California https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxg9gPTd7Aw

    Needy Latinos….Podesta (worked with clinton) Asked Clinton to Call ‘Needy Latinos’: Wikileaks – ABC News
    abcnews.go.com/Politics/campaign-chief-john-podesta-asked-hillary-clinton…/

    Clinton responds by telling people she’s just like their “abuela” and saying one word in spanish “basta.”
    so phony. so phony. so phony. will say anything to get elected. Trump is not going to deport hard working mexicans. don’t be fooled. he will make more jobs for people who really want to immigrate here and work. he likes people who work. Unlike clinton, who just wants you on welfare, dependent on her and other CROOKS..they don’t want you to be successful.

    Like

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