New York Times Poll: Crooked Hillary 47%, Donald Trump 41% (Poll Weighted D+8)…

This is a good poll to highlight sketchy poll outcomes, and teach yourself how to spot them.

A newly released NYT/CBS National Poll (full pdf below) shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 6 points.  However, the weighting is D+8  (Rep 26, Dem 34, Ind 34)

2 candidate trump vs clinton NYT CBS

NOTE (between Q#62 and Q#63 you’ll find a “curiously unnumbered” question):

  • 26% of those polled are Republican
  • 34% of those polled are Democrat
  • 34% of those polled are Independent
  • Poll Sample D+8

The internal data does not match the state of current politics on the republican side. See Question #16 and Question #48 which are in complete conflict with each other.

Something sketchy about this poll….

…If it walks like a sketchy duck, talks like a sketchy duck etc.

Here’s the Full Poll Data:

trump eagle 3

 

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This entry was posted in Clinton(s), Donald Trump, Election 2016, media bias, Notorious Liars. Bookmark the permalink.

106 Responses to New York Times Poll: Crooked Hillary 47%, Donald Trump 41% (Poll Weighted D+8)…

  1. The Boss says:

    Failing and flailing, the NYT and CBS are circling the bowl. Plunger, please! Time to end this decently and quickly.

    Liked by 7 people

  2. WeThePeople2016 says:

    After the disastrous hit story the just did on Trump, I doubt many will take this poll seriously, especially since many polls coming out now have it tied or with Trump ahead of crooked Hillary.

    Liked by 7 people

  3. Pam says:

    Good points about questions #16 and #48 Sundance even if you forget the overweighted D sample, it’s very fishy indeed.

    Liked by 1 person

    • WSB says:

      I thought the No Answer column was very telling. Every time there was a sensitive question to Clinton, there were high no answers. Every time there was a les sensitive question, there were low no answers. Might that not skew the polling question for the other two categories – Clinton or Trump? Especially if they were over-polling D’s?

      Like

  4. Finalage says:

    If both candidates are below 50%, it’s a crapshoot but Trump is going to win big in the end!

    Liked by 3 people

  5. edshaw says:

    NYT, they wish.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Backspin says:

    How do they stay afloat ? Does legacy ( 4th branch of government ) propaganda arm get actual subsidies ?

    Like

  7. JeremyR says:

    There is no question 61, so the missing number may be explained that way.

    Liked by 3 people

    • WSB says:

      That’s a hoot!

      Like

    • Concerned says:

      They’re not good at math (but they attempted to carry out a statistical survey anyway).

      By the way, what good is it to survey people who are not registered to vote? I realize some still have time, but I think people who are already registered are more likely to show up at the polls in November. JMO

      Liked by 1 person

  8. Terz says:

    We have entered the Comical Ali stage.

    Liked by 3 people

  9. larryw says:

    NOTE: between Q#60 and Q#62 you’ll find that “curiously” missing question number…

    Like

  10. Will says:

    The New York Times? I didn’t realize they were still in business!
    https://pjmedia.com/blog/walter-duranty-prize/

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Stringy theory says:

    Hillary is in danger of having the powers that be on the dumbocrap party pill the plug on her candidacy. So this poll and similar efforts to pump her up go keep her on life support. It won’t wodk. She’s going down.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Let her stay around. I believe Trump when he says he can beat her easily and I don’t think any voter is blowing in the wind on this one. Let her slug it out with Bernie, have a disruptive convention, where she has to kiss up to him. The old witch doesn’t have a lot of energy, it will take a lot out of her,Acorn ain’t going to bust their cheating chops over her, Obama won’t be able to inspire them as much as he did before. then watch the boost Trump gets out of that. Bernie guys will come over by the thousands, Clinton’s going to promise them the moon, but I know how radicals think and behave, they’ll be her own worst enemy.
      Of course the best will be if she drops out, they’re not going to want want to get behind Bernie and it will be a real mess, easy pickings.

      Liked by 6 people

      • Tonawanda says:

        “they’re not going to want want to get behind Bernie and it will be a real mess, easy pickings”

        This is the wonderful wretched dilemma – – Hillary can’t win, but parachuting Biden will inflame the Bernies. And even if the rape enabler charges finally convince Hillary she needs to step aside for health reasons, who takes her place?

        Liked by 2 people

        • Jenny R. says:

          Biden, with Warren as his VP…and then Slow Joe will have to watch his back the entire time. Pocahontas isn’t without her own overarching ambitions…she just wants to look nice and proper about it. Do it for the children or something.

          Liked by 3 people

  12. tz says:

    I wouldn’t touch that with a 100 foot poll. Centipedes can be dangerous.

    Liked by 3 people

  13. paulraven1 says:

    Completely insane.

    We need a campaign to discredit and vitiate the NY Times. It needs to be of the same or greater intensity than what are employing against Donald Trump. Enough of the NY Times. Their influence needs to end and they need to end.

    Liked by 1 person

  14. sherayx says:

    i am voting for Mr. Nobody…

    Like

  15. Howie says:

    With a NYT poll you have to add 20 for Trump. They think the invasion is coming in Calle.

    Liked by 1 person

  16. Centinel2012 says:

    Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:

    Most (not all) political polls are manipulated by the taker to show a desired result; this is one of those.

    Like

  17. Wikunia says:

    I saw Bernie on TV spitting and screaming that only he can beat Trump. That’s what polls arę showing.
    Therefore Hillary had no choice but to come up with this outlier to prove Betnie wrong. She will be needing few more before dem. convention.

    Liked by 7 people

  18. Paul Killinger says:

    This poll also underweights Independents by 6% (Gallup now counts them at 40%, which would have the three groups total 100% incidentally), and ignores the statistical characteristics of Sundance’s “Monster Vote” entirely.

    Liked by 4 people

  19. Rachelle says:

    Nothing the NYT says or does can be trusted.

    Liked by 2 people

  20. Suzy Kiprien says:

    It’s the NYT. What more to say?

    Liked by 1 person

  21. belle says:

    Always consider the source.
    TRUMP 2016

    Liked by 1 person

  22. Sherlock says:

    Yes, this looks like a cooked poll, if I’m interpreting correctly.

    On the face page, they say they used 1300 people in the sample, 345 registered R, 362 registered D, for a total of 707. That would lead one to conclude that the remaining 593 were independents or “other”. On the unnumbered question, they ask all respondents whether they identify as (there’s that phrase again) R, D, I, or Other, and it’s 26 34 34 6.

    The upshot is that the population of “other than registered R and D” must be hugely weighted Dem, leading to a total sample overweight of 8% toward Democrat. Of course, it is possible, I suppose, that most independents lean dem when pushed, but there is nothing I have seen in the primary vote thusfar to suggest that, and certainly not to the degree necessary to shift a nearly equally weighted sample of registered R and Ds to plus 8 dem overall. That would require that the 593 Independent and Other would have to be split roughly 59% dem to 41% rep. in preference when pushed. Very unlikely.

    I also found question #42 interesting. A majority (51%) of all respondents said that Trump could actually change things in Washington, and 85% of republicans thought so. As to Clinton, these numbers were 35% overall, and 60% for Dems.

    Liked by 1 person

    • WSB says:

      Yes, many of the individual questions defy the outcome. I mentioned upthread, unusual ‘no answers’ for sensitive questions for Clinton, further skew the final numbers.

      Liked by 1 person

  23. Just Curious says:

    I do not believe that the NYT is cheaper than toilet paper. If the NYT is better than toilet paper, then I would have subscribed it long time ago.

    Liked by 2 people

  24. LBB says:

    I am not a poll queen. But don’t they usually either poll just registered or likely voters . This has 20% unregistered . See question between 7 & 8

    Liked by 1 person

    • LBB says:

      “some people are registered to vote, some are not ….”
      Could that mean they possibly would not even legally be able to vote and are answering the poll ?

      Like

  25. mazziflol says:

    Liked by 6 people

  26. Peter says:

    So we’ve had Rasmussen, fox, and the other showing trump with +5 or 3 or 2

    Then this one showing Hillary up with a weighted dem sample.

    And guess which poll is featured at real clear politics?

    Right. The CBS poll. Spin.

    Liked by 2 people

  27. litlbit2 says:

    IMHO, this 24/7 Hillary, will she or will she not, etc is a scam for something else. It does not make any sense for Hillary to let herself to be made a fool daily, the investigation in pause mode, the DNC becoming a joke with “feel the burn” and the MSM running inference. Not only does the world believe but the electorate also, Hillary is dishonest, lies, takes foreign monies, etc so why the game. I wonder what Obama, DNC, establishment RNC, Soros etc are setting up for Donald Trump and the folks ahead. To me that is the story. Trump will be president the folks have their leader and the above are very well aware of it and can not stop this Trump Train powered by the “monster vote”. Just thoughts while feeling the joy and hope Trumps brings after 8 years of failure by both the RNC/DNC.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Jenny R. says:

      Even without any more interesting incidents, we know that whoever is the next president will be inheriting a world of schiesse. Maybe the Dems have decided to let Hillary destroy herself (she’s made a lot of enemies within her own party’s ranks — that much was obvious during the ’08 election), watch the GOP destroy itself, next president will be one term they figure and then: finally they get to be in power forever?

      Liked by 1 person

  28. Martin says:

    You’re terrible, Hillary:

    Like

    • Jenny R. says:

      Well…yeah…

      Like

    • I’m not on any of those gossip social media sites, but if I were I’d reply to Hillary Clinton as follows.

      If you support lying, thieving and arrogance far beyond the political norm & typical behavior as though one were above the law as foreign & domestic policy qualifications, then your definitions need work!
      If you cite supporting the abandonment of US Diplomats, American heros and American citizens to cover up incompetence in supplying arms to insurgents supporting The Muslim Brotherhood, your definitions need some work.
      If you support orchestrating the murder of a foreign dictator whom stood in the way of your POTUS agenda to further The Muslim Brotherhood in Libya, your definitions need much work.
      If you support government officials illegally using an unsecure home internet server to skirt the FOI Act, and if you support treason against America as foreign policy qualifications, your definitions need much more work.
      If you support a presidential cabinet member’s dereliction of duty and espionage because she’s allowing access to America’s secrets in exchange for contributions from foreign governments to fund much of her presidential campaign in 2016, your definitions are f#%$ed beyond being workable and you require rehabilitation @ Club Fed.

                                               Elect HILLARY FOR PRISON 2016.
      

      Liked by 2 people

      • John says:

        That’s way longer than 140 characters!!! 😂😂😂😂

        Liked by 2 people

        • Hey don’t blame me if Hillary’s better known scandals are too many to fit within a single 40 character comment. LOL youtube used to have a 500 character limit per comment but I had much to say (type) during the Florida persecution of George Zimmerman & it wasn’t too uncommon that I’d post a 5,500 character comment in 12 parts on youtube.

          Like

    • Looks like Hillary is just as prolific with strawman as Obama. Pfeh.

      Like

    • ZZZ says:

      uh…you have never hosted anything…for a fee, I’m sure.

      Like

  29. Jason Ross says:

    The CBS/NYT poll was taken 5/13 thru 5/17, placing it entirely before Clinton’s loss in Oregon and her razor-thin win in Kentucky (which she won by fraud in Louisville).

    Liked by 4 people

  30. I suspect that those numbers would’ve been nearer to Trump-50% & Clinton-38% had the polled demographics been 33% across the board.
    IMO Donald Trump has the vast majority support of Republicans, nearly 55% – 60% of Independents & 33% of Democrats.
    Don’t allow the MSM access to your mind, refuse to be played the fool.
    The MSM is well aware that they’re losing much influence over the masses & that’s motivating the MSM to buy up online media sites.
    Example: Robert Mercer (Ted Cruz’s sugar daddy LOL) purchased Breitbart.com & that site soon began sliding toward the globalists crapper.

    Liked by 3 people

  31. MaxMBJ says:

    This is a “Hillary must be saved” poll. The narrative was slipping away. After their hit piece on Trump this past weekend failed, they were forced to quick-drop a poll. It’s hard to believe they would actually make up data but it isn’t hard at all to believe they would massage it. Consider their star witness in the hit piece who came out the next day to denounce the article and claim she was misquoted.

    And so too can you “misquote” poll data. It’s called putting your thumb on the scales.

    Liked by 2 people

  32. wondering999 says:

    At a supermarket, I just saw some rag proclaiming interest in Trump’s income tax returns. LOL! These people did manage to suppress punishment for using the IRS for political purposes… but did they manage to delude themselves at the same time? The IRS has no credibility. If you hear someone has been audited, there’s at least a 50/50 chance it was political punishment, and that is something that ticks people off across the board. Do they really think that accusations about “income tax returns” are going to stick ? They’ve already ruined the IRS by political overuse.

    Liar liar pants on fire, the media don’t understand why people “boooooo” at them

    Liked by 2 people

    • Sherlock says:

      Right you are. Trump should never release his returns–too much information to be used by his business competitors, for one thing. And I guarantee you that 99% of the morons in the press screaming for this haven’t even bothered to read the data he has already released in his fed. financial statements.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Jenny R. says:

      We can thank flipping third party Mitt for that one. What a hypocrite. Go home and polish your car elevator and your wife’s horse shoes Mitt.

      Liked by 3 people

    • WSB says:

      Trump should just tell people to call Lois Lerner if they want to get to the bottom of it.

      Liked by 3 people

  33. The funny thing is, the Trump knows what this poll means…and so does Hillary and the Dems…they have to be shitting themselves right now!!!

    Liked by 2 people

  34. Sandra says:

    I think this is weird …. 51% of Democratic Primary voters want Hillary to be the Dem nominee and 44% want Bernie (that’s question #10), and yet only 44% would enthusiastically support Hillary (question #12) but 52% would enthusiastically support Bernie (question #13). ?????? If fewer people want Bernie to be the nominee, then why would more people be enthusiastic supporters?

    Liked by 2 people

    • Joe says:

      They have bought into the lies that Hillary is more electable, and think they need to vote for her to win the white house.

      Like

      • Concerned says:

        But there was a category for that, supporting her just because she’s the nominee. I’m sure they would do so begrudgingly, not enthusiastically.

        Like

  35. “He is moving like a tremendous machine! Secretariat by twelve, Secretariat by fourteen lengths on the turn! Sham is dropping back….”

    Poor Sham. A world record horse himself, but he ran into once a century greatness.

    Liked by 1 person

  36. StuckinCa says:

    Round and round the mulberry bush the rascally rascal ran.

    Like

  37. ZurichMike says:

    No polling of likely voters.
    Oversampled Democrats.
    Where were those polled from? Manhattan? Campaign headquarters of Hillary?

    Liked by 2 people

  38. OnlyInAmerica says:

    I’ve often wondered if crooked Shrillary ever actually passed the BAR exam to get her lawyer credentials. She’s not just a crook but also a big kluts who screws up everything she touches (benghazi, health reform, whitewater, 2008 primary) to include a failed bar exam on the first try. Given her and slick willy’s penchant for breaking the rules, its not too hard to imagine that her governor husband might have pulled a few strings with the arkansas state bar. The only thing hildabeast has ever been successful at is putting out “bimbo eruptions”.

    Liked by 1 person

  39. Steve Wright says:

    2008 Dems (Obama race) had a 7 point advantage over GOP. 2012 it was down to 6 points. This poll samples Dems as a +8. No way that is happening this year given the recent primary registrations (and transfers). GOP had a +3 advantage over independents in both years. This poll has independents +8 over GOP. I guarantee you if that holds true those indies are voting Trump way more than Hillary.

    Liked by 1 person

  40. I think this and the one the other day from NBC are meant for Bernie’s eyes and/or the blinking eyes of some super delegates.

    Liked by 1 person

  41. tampafan says:

    I believe the visible chaos in the Dem Party is real: Hillary really wants this and will hang on, white knuckled, as long as she can and by whatever means. The Clintons have owned the Party – even thru Obama Admin -and all have been intimidated into supporting Hillary. Now that cracks are showing, Clinton team will put the pressure on NYTimes and others to shill for her. She has loosed the dogs on Sanders (Harry Reid missioned with “talking” to him this week). As Trump attacks her so honestly and openly -“RAPE ENABLER WEAK SICK CROOKED” the cracks get wider. It is clear to all of us she will lose big. I am ok with skewed polls if it keeps the Hillary team hoping and Trump supporters motivated to keep pushing.

    Obama and team plot on the outside – no doubt they have an ace up their sleeve and are waiting for her to tank in the polls and for Trump to look inevitable. I am more concerned about the move they will pull to replace her. We say Biden, but what if it is a more shockingly presentable substitute?
    These skewed polls are the old school way the voter was manipulated. No more – but if they think they are working, the Dems may stay distracted on this wrong headed path, nominate Hillary and get thrashed in November. I’m not so sure we want it to be so widely understood that the Monster Vote is coming!! (It’s like trying to make sure our enemies really understand that their battle plan is a loser in time for them to make corrections….)

    Liked by 3 people

    • Guest says:

      ” I’m not so sure we want it to be so widely understood that the Monster Vote is coming!!”

      Agreed.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Concerned says:

      Hillary sold her soul in 2008. She was treated abysmally by Obama, the Dem party leaders, and the MSM throughout that primary season. Any decent woman would have said “f u” to Obama and the Dem party, but instead she announced her support. They gave her that crappy Secretary of State job which seemed to nearly kill her but she still hung in. She and Bill, who looks like an AIDS victim now he’s so frail, are clinging to their legacy. They’re like Ted Cruz, the guest who will never leave.

      Liked by 2 people

  42. Dommy says:

    “Crooked New York Times Poll: Crooked Hillary 47%, Donald Trump 41%”

    Headline fixed!

    Liked by 3 people

  43. Daddio says:

    Polls. Bah! Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Never trust polls.

    Like

  44. 180daysofkindergarten says:

    Polls are damn lies. I was shopping with a friend and made the case for voting for Trump,successfully of course, and then followed by saying not to pay any attention to any poll.
    The lying sack of sh** polls work, absolutely work, on the stupid masses.

    Like

  45. LM says:

    IMO, I believe that the baseness of the Clintons is beyond the comprehension of most people. Lying is a way of life to them, as is theft, intimidation, blackmail, and the death of others. In 1996, in a manner strangely reminiscent of the IRS issues of the Obama administration, FBI files containing personal background information on Republican officials ended up in the Clinton Whitehouse. Then, as in now…”Investigations” turned up smoke but no guns…..and the abuse continues.

    The death of millions of people across the globe, the persecution and torture of Christians in Middle Eastern and African lands, the torture and death of Americans in Benghazi is of no moment to them as policies are implemented to benefit their own agenda and that of their donors. If America elects Hillary we can expect her to lie routinely….as she did about the film in Benghazi….in matters of policy. We will not find out what is going on or be able to affect it in any way until it is too late.

    Seemingly without conscience, and therefore having no shame, the Clintons use the law for their own benefit….but they and their favored ones are exempt.

    They will own the law, the media, the borders, the military, our schools, our healthcare systems, our monetary system, and us.

    Those who are too “pure” to vote for Donald Trump will, in part, be responsible.

    Liked by 1 person

  46. ZZZ says:

    Again, a total disrespect for the electorate.

    Note to NYT…we see through you…you are wasting your time…the more you lie, cheat and try to obfuscate the truth, the more you push people to Trump.

    Like

  47. Robert Caron says:

    But we’re supposed to believe a Fox News poll that oversampled Republican voters, right? If you believe Fox, 41% of the voters in November will be Republicans. Never mind that GOP voters haven’t outnumbered Democrats in any election in nearly a century.

    Like

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