Many people have been making inquiries about the upcoming Nevada caucuses and where the candidates’ stand. Caucuses are notoriously challenging to predict via polling because actual voting requires more affirmative action by the supporter than simply dropping in a polling booth to vote.
Polling may measure support, but support does not necessarily translate to caucus votes unless there’s a really good turn-out GOTV campaign on the ground to get the supporters to the caucus events.
However, that said, here is the most recent neutral polling paid for by CNN/ORC (full pdf below). The Polling shows only the level of candidate support in Nevada which may, or may not, translate to the results from the caucus:
Additionally, here’s some food for thought on the overall race moving forward.
(Via McLatchyDC) – Things sure look good for Donald Trump.
The Republican presidential race expanded across the country Sunday, and polls show the real estate mogul ahead in eight of the dozen states voting in the next nine days.
Trump has now won primaries in two very different states, center-right New Hampshire and evangelical-dominated South Carolina. And the Republican Party system of choosing a presidential nominee favors candidates who continue to win early primaries and caucuses.
“He seems to have about a third of the Republican electorate under his spell, and it’s a durable, non-ideological coalition,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Sunday.
The biggest hope for stopping Trump is for a single strong challenger to emerge, and so far that hasn’t happened.
Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., finished second Saturday in South Carolina, but he was 10 percentage points behind Trump and barely edged Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, even though Rubio barnstormed the state with popular Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C.
Rubio also lacks an obvious state where he can win in the next few weeks. He should be a favorite in Tuesday’s Nevada caucus. Rubio lived in Las Vegas as a child, was a church member, and Sunday picked up the endorsement of Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nevada. But a CNN/ORC poll last week showed Trump with a huge lead, with more support than Rubio and Cruz combined. (read more)
Today in Atlanta Georgia: