New Hampshire Poll – Trump 27%, Cruz 13%, Rubio 11%, Christie 10%

…The Republican nominee for president will be that candidate who best learns that there is no future in apologizing…

~ Jack Cashill (June 10, 2015)

A new PPP Poll (full pdf here) from New Hampshire shows the influence of structural GOPe machinations -via corporate media- onto an electorate.  Carson – dropping, Rubio – static, Cruz – lifted, Kasich – collapsing, and Christie – surging:

(Via PPP Analysis ) – PPP’s new New Hampshire poll finds Donald Trump’s position in the state pretty much unchanged compared to six weeks ago. He leads with 27% to 13% for Ted Cruz, 11% for Marco Rubio, 10% for Chris Christie, 9% for Ben Carson, 8% for John Kasich, 6% for Carly Fiorina, 5% for Jeb Bush, and 4% for Rand Paul. Rounding out the field in the 1% or less club are Mike Huckabee, George Pataki, and Rick Santorum each at 1%, and Lindsey Graham and Jim Gilmore with less than 1%.

The clear momentum candidate in New Hampshire is Chris Christie. In mid-October he was in 9th place in the state at just 3%. Now he’s moved all the way up into the 4th position with his 10% standing. Most remarkably though he now has the best favorability rating of any of the candidates in New Hampshire, with 61% of voters seeing him positively to only 22% who have a negative opinion.

To put those numbers in perspective Christie was at 35/46 when we polled the state in August, so he’s had a 50 point net improvement in his favorability over the last three months. That’s a good reminder of how early it still is in this race and how much things can change in a short time. Christie is the most frequent second choice of Bush and Kasich voters so if either of them doesn’t make it to New Hampshire he’ll be well positioned to further gain.

The only other candidate with any momentum in the Granite State is Ted Cruz, who’s moved from being in 6th place at 8% in October to now second place with his 13% standing.

We continue to see Cruz with growing strength among voters on the right everywhere we poll- he’s almost even among ‘very conservative’ voters in New Hampshire, getting 27% to Trump’s 29%. Cruz is also the most frequent second choice of primary voters at 14% to 13% for Rubio and 12% for Christie. Importantly he’s the second choice of 26% of Trump voters to 14% for Christie with no one else in double digits. If Trump’s support ever does wear away Cruz is positioned to be the greatest beneficiary of that.

There are two candidates these numbers are particularly bad for: Jeb Bush and John Kasich, both of whom might be the victims of Christie’s renewed strength. Bush has dropped from 5th place at 9% last month down now to 8th place at 5% this month. He continues to really struggle with GOP voters just flat not liking him- only 38% have a positive opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. His unfavorability rating ties him with George Pataki for the worst with New Hampshire Republicans.

Kasich was in double digits and in the top 4 on both our August and October New Hampshire polls but is now seeing his standing slip with his 6th place showing at 8%. Kasich’s also seen his favorability rating drop from 49/22 in August to then 45/29 in October to now standing at just 38/35. The more NH Republicans get to know him the less they like him, and that doesn’t bode well for a candidate whose relevance in the race is probably predicated on a strong performance in New Hampshire.

As for Trump he was at 28% in mid-October and he’s at 27% now, so his standing couldn’t be much more steady. His favorability rating with Republicans has actually improved a tick, from 48/42 the last poll to now 50/39. The key to Trump’s sustained success is that his supporters basically buy into everything he says. (read more)

The pdf is available HERE

 

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This entry was posted in Donald Trump, Election 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, media bias, Ted Cruz, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

49 Responses to New Hampshire Poll – Trump 27%, Cruz 13%, Rubio 11%, Christie 10%

  1. Doodahdaze says:

    Add 10 to Trump.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Raffaella says:

      Exactly.

      Don’t worry these corrupt pollsters will start showing the reality in their future polls as we get closer to the voting. They all want to be accurate for the final analysis.

      The closer we get to voting, the higher Trump’s poll numbers.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Stefano says:

        I think the real numbers are the Ipsos Reuters ones, the 5 days rolling thing, that’s the most credible poll,particularly if you look at the long run, at the general range, taking into consideration a couple of weeks.
        And those have Trump fluctuating between 32 and 42 %,which is where Trump is between real voters who actually get out and vote, nationally.
        He fluctuates a lot, yes,and he should, but I believe he IS between 32 and 42% nationally.
        Ispos Reuter always have huge ups and downs and some freaky, hard to believe results here and there, but that’s exactly what makes them more credible to me.
        Instead all these pollsters like Quinnipiac, Wall Street/NBC etc.they all seem to have the same ,expected, predictable,repeated ,conservative, never fluctuating much percentages which always look like the “credible, average” numbers supposed to fit the narrative. they want ..and that’s impossible.
        Real polls are going to have huge fluctuations one from the other.

        Liked by 1 person

    • Sentient says:

      Yes. 538 recently noted a 10 pt disparity between in-person and automated (or online) polls http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-future-of-polling-may-depend-on-donald-trumps-fate/ with Trump doing better in anonymous polls. I would proudly proclaim my support for Mr. Trump, but apparently some people are intimidated by the anti-Trump vitriol.

      Liked by 2 people

    • sundance says:

      Liked by 4 people

    • Notamemberofanyorgainizedpolicatal says:

      My thoughts, but I’d say ADD 15% more on to Trump’s numbers!

      Like

  2. Kiliman says:

    Have you seen the latest GOPe trick? They’ve “allowed” a vote to repeal Obamacare knowing full well it will be vetoed.

    I have to believe this was done to try and bump up Cruz’s numbers.

    Liked by 5 people

  3. Melania for 1st Lady says:

    “The only other candidate [other than Christie] with any momentum in the Granite State is Ted Cruz….”

    Trump is leading Christie, Cruz, and everyone else by double digits but the establishment guys are “surging”??? How many times are these dopes going to trot out that nonsense narrative?

    Liked by 2 people

    • TwoLaine says:

      Until it sticks! 😉

      Liked by 2 people

    • Notamemberofanyorgainizedpolicatal says:

      You know the GOPe Elitists aren’t in touch with the modern usage of English…….
      I think the word the GOPe meant – instead of “surging” – is “upchucking!”

      “Cruz is upchucking in New Hampshire!”
      “Cristie is upchucking in New Hampshire!”

      Yeah, that sounds more like what they meant. There fixed for you upchucking GOPe.

      Like

  4. archer52 says:

    Watched Jeb on Fox. The guy watching it with me, an older man, just shook his head. “He needs to grow a beard or change glasses or something. He looks like a wimp.”

    I said he was a wonk, same thing, just smarter. Jeb’s entire outlook on life is from a government policy solving perspective. He had to force himself to say “Well, this isn’t the job of the government.” Because to him, everything can be influenced by government doing something.

    He even agreed that a no fly list should be a factor in who can buy guns, while sitting next to Steve Hayes- who has been on the no fly list for a reason no one could explain!

    Steve goes what about due process. Instead of saying it was a bad idea, Jeb said they had to fix the list.

    A bad idea “fixed” by the same bureaucrats who screwed it up. The Jeb solution. (same with common core)

    He’s a nice guy, use him in a cabinet. but not a President. And he smiles when he says no way Trump makes it. Like the fix was in. But then says we should let the democratic process work.

    Again, he doesn’t really get it. If it works and Trump wins, he either accepts it or is proven a liar.

    And a fool.

    Liked by 9 people

    • Melania for 1st Lady says:

      8th place!! AHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! 8th! AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! Mr. 5%!! Bush? Who cares about a Bush? Total loser!! AHAHAHAHAA! 8th place!!!!!! HAHAHAHAAHA!!!!!!!!

      Liked by 2 people

    • sundance says:

      Jeb Bush is the physical personification of the GOPe political ideological outlook.

      Liked by 14 people

      • joshua says:

        yuk…that makes me want to wash my hands and brush my teeth. Jeb is too much like his Daddy, who was a wimpy wonk with a terrible presentation defect.

        Liked by 2 people

      • jackphatz says:

        Excellent summary!

        Liked by 1 person

      • Trump needs to clarify on the no-fly list to keep gun owners in the fold and position against Jeb’s surging fauxservative media strategy. Trump made strong gains there – we don’t want to lose them.

        I suggest Trump get out front of Jeb on due process, because Jeb is saying minimize time on the list and limit use to active investigations, both easy to abuse against Obama’s or Hillary’s political enemies. I know – I was on a flight list of some kind under the Clintons. I flew, but was heavily searched every time.

        Jeb failed to support due process as a way to get off the list – oddly and interestingly. Trump can challenge on potential for abuse by Obama and Holderette, and say due process matters. Add more gun owners. GOA has good statements on policy here.

        Helpful Trump tip of the day! 😉

        PS – someday I’ll post about Clintons versus guns. How we beat them, and how vindictive they were.

        Like

      • R-C says:

        aka, Bush–the Poster Child for dysfunctional politics.

        Like

  5. Centinel2012 says:

    Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:

    The citizens are waking up to the fact that Trump tells it like it is and is always right. That is hard to beat!

    Liked by 7 people

    • JustSomeInputFromAz says:

      We must all ensure we are properly registered to vote in the Primary.

      Please ALL check your States Primary Rules!

      Make certain you can cast a Primary vote for Mr. Trump. Beware of GOPe shenanigans.

      This Primary vote is the most important vote of our lifetime.

      BR

      Liked by 4 people

  6. Sanj says:

    Does anyone else watching the Trump speech today think that he was referring to Huma and Hillarys relationship as being lesbian? It was very cryptic and funny but some in the audience got it

    Liked by 2 people

  7. Ketch says:

    What course of action can We The People take if there is obvious voter fraud during/after the primary?

    Like

  8. snaggletooths says:

    cruz probably is surging a little after all he is telling people what they want to hear he talks out both sides of his mouth. He still won’t answer about deporting illegals. His fake outrage over refugee’s is just that fake Texas has had so many refugee’s brought in Cruz never once questioned that and its all happened since he has been a Senator.

    Like

    • Toronto Tonto says:

      Cruz is as greasy as they come, and he comes by it NATURALLY. His father fought alongside Castro then bribed a bureaucrat to flee. He went to Canada, became a Canadian citizen along with Cruz’ soooo American (alleged anchor baby) mother and had Cruz in Canada.

      Cruz says he’s tough on immigration, but his father games our system. Cruz obviously adored his pop, too. Wanna bet he hung onto his Canadian citizenship for so many years so he could visit Cuba when it was illegal for Americans? Yet he talks about immigration like he’s to the right of Trump. “As president, I’d hire him to build the wall.” Cooking bacon on an automatic rifle that he improperly identified. Denounces gay marriage then hangs out with gay rights activist donors notorious for their cocaine parties where a rent boy overdosed.

      He’s such a weasel. I don’t get why he appeals to people who consider themselves strong conservatives. He’s a naked opportunist who fundraises off his speeches.

      Liked by 2 people

  9. TwoLaine says:

    “The key to Trump’s sustained success is that his supporters basically buy into everything he says. There’s an almost cult like aspect to it, with Trump fans following the leader.

    Examples:

    -58% of Trump voters think thousands of Arabs in New Jersey celebrated the attacks of 9/11 to only 12% who don’t think that happened. This is despite only 30% of Republican voters overall believing that to 39% who don’t.

    -53% of Trump supporters are in favor of a national database of Muslims, to only 22% opposed to that concept. This is despite only 29% of Republicans overall supporting the idea to 44% who are against it. In fact supporters of all 13 of the other candidates are against this concept.

    -49% of Trump supporters want to shut down the mosques in the United States, to only 18% against that idea. Overall only 25% of Republicans support doing that to 44% who oppose it. Again on this issue supporters of every single candidate other than Trump are against it.”

    I would never hire this company. Totally untrustworthy. Their questions are obviously biased and based on the media’s lies. SO disgusting.

    Liked by 1 person

    • ZurichMike says:

      And they even get the analysis wrong. If 49% of Trump supporters want to shut down mosques, that means 51% do not — a majority. And even if 49% of Trump supporters support closing mosques, and if 44% of all Republicans are against it, that means 56% (again, a majority) are either for closing mosques or neutral about it. In other words . . .
      . . . EPIC STATISTICAL FAIL.

      Liked by 2 people

  10. Serpentor says:

    Chris Christie?!

    Well, that’s a welcomed development. I like him in the debates. I’d never vote for him though.

    Like

    • frangelica1 says:

      The only reason Christie has higher numbers in this particular poll is that he is campaigning almost all the time in New Hampshire – he has spent more time there then in New Jersey!

      Like

    • ZurichMike says:

      For some odd reason, my mother likes Chris Christie and is now hoping he moves forward in the pack. Don’t get it. He is way to “East Coast RINO” to have any traction beyond the Mid-Atlantic states.

      Like

  11. Rev21v3n4 says:

    So, I was an evangelist today. I was talking to my best friend of 35+ years today (we live 2,500 miles apart now) and the subject eventually turned to the election. She has not been paying attention to any of it so has no clue. To give you a sense of how clueless she really is, when discussing the current occupant (who she agrees is evil), she wondered who was behind him. I said, Soros…who? Jarrett…who? Had never heard of them and had no idea who they are and what they do behind the scenes.

    Me: Who do you like for president?
    Her: Who was that Christian that ran last time?
    Me: Huckabee.
    Her: Yeah, him. I really like him.
    Me: He has zero chance.
    Her: Oh. Well what about that preacher, you know, the soft spoken black guy? He seems like a conservative.
    Me: He was a surgeon.
    Her: Oh, that’s right.
    Me: He does not have what it takes to be president.
    Her: Ok. But, aren’t there a couple other conservatives?
    Me: Do you mean Rubio or Cruz?
    Her: Yeah.
    Me: Rubio ran as a Tea Party candidate. Once elected, he did a 180 and has betrayed everything TP’rs stand for.
    Her: Really? Didn’t know that.
    Me: Cruz has put on a good show from time to time, but he is responsible for passing the Corker bill, which he did a 180 on.
    Her: What’s that?
    Me: It allows the US to be trashed economically through TPP, a global trade plan. Do you know what the SuperPACs are?
    Her: No.
    Me: It means the candidates are beholden to the donors. They are no longer listening to voters. They are only voting as directed by them.
    Her: I had no idea. Are all of them that way now? Are there any other candidates?
    Me: There is only one candidate who is not owned by them. What do you think of Trump?
    Her: Ewwww. I don’t like him. He’s bombastic. I don’t like the things he says. He’s probably a conservative, though.
    Me: You do realize that the media is lying about the things he’s “said”, right?
    Her: Really?
    Me: Everything they are saying about him is a lie. Do not believe any of it. Do your research.
    Her: You like him?
    Me: Well, if you had asked me a year ago if I would ever vote for Trump, I would have resoundingly said no. Now, I’ve come to realize he is the ONLY candidate standing up for the things we want and against the things we hate.
    Her: You’re kidding.
    Me: Nope. You need to do your homework. In fact, go to this website: http://www.conservativetreehouse.com. They have all his speeches. Pick 2 or 3 and listen to what he actually says. After watching a few and listening to what he had to say, it didn’t take me long to be convinced. I even went to his rally last week when he was here in Columbus. He is very real and the only candidate passionate about this country and its people.
    Her: Wow! I can see I really need to look into this if you’re convinced.
    Me: I am.
    Her: Ok. Well, I’ll talk to Mark (her husband) about this and say we need to understand what is going on.
    Me: You do that. I believe he is the only one who can turn the ship around. If anyone else is elected, the country is lost.
    Her: I will definitely look into this.

    See, I converted someone today!

    Liked by 7 people

    • parteagirl says:

      Way to go!

      Like

      • Rev21v3n4 says:

        This is the Reader’s Digest version of our conversation. She really was curious and I went into a lot more depth. I think she finally understood why I was sold on someone neither one of us would normally choose. My first cannon shot across the bow! Yay!

        Like

        • Doug says:

          I think you nailed it ,I especially like your if you would have asked me a year ago i would have said no. Its a great comment, and not to mention probably true for all of us here.

          Like

    • ZurichMike says:

      But also how sad that the electorate is so out of touch, and only gets its marching orders from the TV bobble heads, Beltway Bullies, and social media.

      Like

      • Rev21v3n4 says:

        You ain’t a kiddin’. I was really shocked and appalled at just how ignorant she really was. This is someone I’ve known for a very long time and have had many conversations with about politics over the years for one reason or another. I thought she was more savvy than this. Truly eye opening. At least she listened because she knows me well enough to know I would never vote for someone like Trump unless there were truly compelling reasons. I was actually able to go into a lot of details about many of the things we Treepers now know and understand about this election in particular. She did get it and I think I was able to add at least two more ticks in the Trump column, possibly a third with their daughter.

        Like

  12. California Trumpeter says:

    “There are two candidates these numbers are particularly bad for: Jeb Bush and John Kasich, both of whom might be the victims of Christie’s renewed strength. Bush has dropped from 5th place at 9% last month down now to 8th place at 5% this month. He continues to really struggle with GOP voters just flat not liking him- only 38% have a positive opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. His unfavorability rating ties him with George Pataki for the worst with New Hampshire Republicans. ”

    How’s that splitter strategy working out for you? Morons.

    As for Trump he was at 28% in mid-October and he’s at 27% now, so his standing couldn’t be much more steady. His favorability rating with Republicans has actually improved a tick, from 48/42 the last poll to now 50/39.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. yohio says:

    The president post not up yet, I keep getting stuff on Twitter about story Rubio cheating on wife, I’m suspicious can’t get story to come up. I tried to find story nothing. So is it fake?

    Like

  14. ajbenius says:

    Chris Christie will be closing some more bridges soon in order to celebrate his 10%

    Like

  15. keebler AC says:

    Compare and contrast:

    Donald Trump – never did drugs and warns his own kids to not go near the stuff! Adult children are huge successes. Forbids more drug trafficking with a wall.

    Jeb Bush – did drugs as well as turned hid classmates on to the hashish whot then were kicked out of college but not Jeb due to connections. Adult children have arrest records and do drugs themselves. Illegal crossing and drug trafficking is love.

    Liked by 1 person

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