Has The Lead Shifted To Santorum In The Michigan Race?

PPP’s final poll in Michigan finds Rick Santorum holding on to the smallest of leads with 38% to 37% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich.  It’s always good to be cautious with one night poll numbers, but momentum seems to be swinging in Santorum’s direction. Romney led with those interviewed on Sunday, but Santorum has a 39-34 advantage with folks polled on Monday. The best sign that things have gone back toward Santorum might be that with those polled today who hadn’t already voted, Santorum’s advantage was 41-31.  

Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum greets diners and volunteers during a campaign stop at the St. William Dad's Club 23rd Annual Lenten Fish Fry on February 24, 2012 in Walled Lake, Michigan.

Much has been made of Democratic efforts to turn out the vote for Santorum and we see evidence that’s actually happening. Romney leads with actual Republican voters, 43-38. But Santorum’s up 47-10 with Democratic voters, and even though they’re only 8% of the likely electorate that’s enough to put him over the top. The big question now is whether those folks will actually bother to show up and vote tomorrow.

Even though things seem to be moving back in Santorum’s direction, there’s one big reason to think that Romney will still come out as the winner tomorrow night. 18% of the electorate has already cast its ballots and with those voters in the bank Romney has a 56-29 advantage. Santorum’s likely to win election day voters, but he”s going to have to do it by a wide margin to erase the lead Romney has stored. We see Santorum with a 40-33 advantage among those who have yet to vote.

Romney hasn’t made a good last impression on Michigan voters. His favorability in Sunday interviews was 57/36, but in Monday interviews it was only 47/48. Santorum saw little difference in his reviews between the two days: 54/39 on Sunday and 56/36 on Monday. If Romney does indeed end up losing tomorrow there’s not much doubt he will have blown it in the final 48 hours.

We’ve seen a lot of the Republican contests so far shift dramatically in the final week…this has the potential to be the first one that’s shifted twice in the final week. It’s going to be interesting.

“It looks like things in Michigan are swinging back toward Rick Santorum in the final hours before the polls open,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big questions are whether Romney’s absentee vote lead is too large for Santorum to make up, and whether Democrats really will turn out to support Santorum in the GOP primary.”  PPP surveyed 922 likely Republican primary voters on February 26th and 27th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

About Ad rem

Millions of little gray cells wrapped in fur.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to Has The Lead Shifted To Santorum In The Michigan Race?

  1. Love the optic of the cartoon pic. Perfect representational perspective.

    And yes, I hope Santorum can defeat Mittens in Michigan. Anyone but Romney. Anyone 😦

    Like

  2. stellap says:

    Don’t forget we’re an open primary state. Dems will be crossing the line to vote for Santorum too. That will help him a lot. They think he would be a bad candidate against Obama. They’re wrong.

    P.S.: That is how McCain took Michigan in 2000 instead of Bush.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s