For the past several weeks Senator Ted Cruz has been running a presidential campaign based on a strategy to ‘win despite the voters’. The latest Brown University poll (full pdf below) of Rhode Island voters highlights why.
The Brown U Poll shows Donald Trump with a lead of 38%, Governor Kasich second with 25% and Ted Cruz in dead last with only 14% support.
The poll surveyed a random sample of 600 registered Rhode Island voters who are likely to vote in the presidential primaries. It was conducted April 19 to 21 and has an overall margin of error of 4 percent.
However, the 19 Rhode Island delegates are distributed proportionally (13 by state vote count, and six by the two congressional districts’ vote count) with a minimum threshold of 10% to get any delegates; so even with only 14% it is possible for Senator Cruz to pick up a few delegates.
- Two congressional districts with 3 delegates each (6). Divided by the top three candidates – minimum threshold 10%.
- The state delegate distribution (13) is essentially one delegate per 7.7% of the popular vote.
If the voting result outcome on Tuesday resembles the polled data:
- Trump gets approx 9 delegates
- Kasich gets approx. 6 delegates
- Cruz gets approx. 4 delegates
90% of Women Reject Ted Cruz
Here’s the full poll Data:
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