For us political junkies we well understand the political metaphor “building a firewall”.   It implies changing strategy to fend off pending doom by retreating your position to a specific geography and terrain easier to defend.   You can tell when fire lines change position based on a careful following of campaign money.   The money is used to protect the candidates behind the protective fire line.

Prior to the Benghazi explosions, and subsequent distractions, the “inside-the-beltway” left-leaning conversation was about watching Mitt Romney supporting Super-Pacs and where they place their money.

If the Pro-Romney SuperPacs left the battleground states it was proclaimed to be an indicator of Romney weakness as they would focus their financial efforts on targeted races to shore up the House, and attempt to take the Senate.   In short the fallback position to losing the White House.

Now however, the exact same scenario is unfolding, except it is the Democrat Super Pacs pulling out and retreating the fire line.  As shared by the New York Times:

The pro-Obama “super PAC” that has spent millions of dollars attacking Mitt Romney in ads is pulling commercials from Florida and Wisconsin, part of what the group says is a realignment of its advertising campaign.

The cancellations by Priorities USA Action, coupled with new purchases of television time in other key swing states, indicate where Democratic strategists think the presidential race may and may not be competitive with a month left to Election Day.

President Obama was always polling strongly in Wisconsin, so the need for him to have a strong television presence advertising there was less crucial.

But Priorities, which has been pulling in more money than its pro-Romney counterpart recently and will continue to aggressively fund-raise through much of October, is also going up on the air in states where the polls are much tighter, like Nevada, which is a first.

Bill Burton, a senior strategist for the group, said Wednesday that Priorities would also be buying more time in Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and Virginia in the coming days.

According to preliminary advertising totals, Priorities moved $4.5 million out of Florida and Wisconsin markets. But the group remains on the air in some markets, including Orlando, West Palm Beach and Green Bay.

“We are not leaving any states,” Mr. Burton said. “Based on our extensive polling and targeting data, in some states we are shifting efforts into some key markets.” (article)

What this actually means is the broader geographic areas of Florida and Wisconsin are now considered less “impacted” by the spending.   In other words, a waste of money – they are giving up on those markets- they are conceding defeat.

This parallels what we are witnessing the Obama campaign actually doing.   As we have pointed out the media spin of polling in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida showing Obama up by eleventy digits is pure horse-pucky.   (A rough estimate of those polling internal statistics shows an average of Dem +8, meaning the Dems were weighted by eight points more heavily than the actual results were showing.   This statistical manipulation portrays the Dems winning when they are not).

Indeed, *if* the internal campaign polling in Ohio showed President Obama up by 10 points, he would not be spending so much time there.   A 10 point advantage is so solid the campaign surrogates would take over and the candidate could focus on states with less of a lead.   No, by witnessing both President Obama and Vice-President Biden spending so much time in such a state, it is a testament to how close the race actually is.

Simultaneous to this you have the obvious factors.   In Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker was not only elected in 2010, but he was re-elected (during the failed recall) by an even larger margin this year than his original victory.   In addition, Scott Walkers’ reforms are paying actual dividends in lower taxes and better employment than neighboring Democrat controlled Illinois which is in severe financial crisis;  AND the same electorate returned conservative State Senate and State House members the same way.

For the Bill Burton Super-Pac (Priorities USA) to pull money out of Wisconsin, is a key indicator their efforts are futile.   The numbers ain’t moving.

Also, you will note that President Obama is ALONE at each campaign stop.   There are no candidates wanting to be on stage with him in these battleground states.   Again, another key performance indicator of his weakness.

Lastly, Bill Burton all but admitted last night on Erin Burnett’s Out Front CNN show that he is coordinating closely with the Obama campaign.   *Note this is illegal.    He was so specific at the coordination, that Erin Burnett herself needed to stop him from talking and try to clean up the message.   She pointed out he didn’t just mean what he said and coordination between Super Pac’s and Campaigns’ is illegal.

What is important about this is unlike Republican Leaning Super-Pacs, the Bill Burton SuperPac is closely coordinating with Obama’s campaign.   So when they pull out of a state it is more relevant than just any SuperPac manuever, because it mirrors the intentions of he Obama campaign itself.

Meaning The Obama Machine (Axelrod, Plouffe, Cutter et al) is admitting weakness, and potential futility in continuing efforts aimed at Florida and Wisconsin.

All indicators are that severe contraction of support for President Obama are evident.

When the next round of polling data comes out (post-debate) there will be a sizable shift noted.   And these will still carry the slanted, and false, embedded baseline  D+8 polling statistics.

So if you see a Romney 51 VS Obama 49 shift, you can bet the actuals are more like Romney 54, Obama 46.   Which is more closely accurate to what I personally, and unscientifically, believe will be the final outcome.

When all is said and done, barring any unforseen October surprises, the election should be around Romney 53 / Obama 47 – about a 6 point spread favorable to a Romney victory in total.