(originally posted March 31st) Readers of this site know that I try to refrain from I Told You So’s… But this one is so friggin obvious and I have litterally been verbally flogged, and told I was an intellectual dumbass over my prediction, that I am taking a friggin liberty and reposting this thread I wrote in MARCH – 5 flippin months ago – Yeah, it’s gonna be a flippin replay of Somalia, and now some military commanders are openly worrying stating as such.    Toldyaso !
 

As each day passes it looks like  Quackdaffy can outlast this rebellion even with a UN ‘No Fly Zone’.   UNLESS some  country puts boots on the ground.   Looking with worry at the ebb and flow of this Libyan war  strong similarities to the 1993-1995 Mogadishu/Somalia Quagmire become ever more visible.   Let’s hope to heck we don’t get drawn further into this, but the latest development with Obama “authorizing” covert military operations just screams for  comparisons to historical failures.   Let us choose one.  Just  one….. 

United Nations Operation in Somalia II (UNOSOM II) was the second phase of the United Nations intervention in Somalia, from March 1993 until March 1995.  UNOSOM II carried on from the United States-controlled (but UN-sanctioned) Unified Task Force (UNITAF), which had in turn taken over from the ineffectual United Nations Operation in Somalia I (UNOSOM I) mission. All three of these interventions were aimed at creating a secure enough environment for humanitarian operations to be carried out in the increasingly lawless country.

Following the failure of the monitoring mission created as UNOSOM by the United Nations, the United States offered to lead a substantial intervention force, chiefly made up of American personnel. This was accepted by the UN and made possible through United Nations Security Council Resolution 794, authorizing the use of “all necessary means to establish as soon as possible a secure environment for humanitarian relief operations in Somalia“.^[1] (Sound familiar) The Security Council then urged the Secretary-General and member states to make arrangements for “the unified command and control” (Sound Familiar) of the military forces that would be involved.^[2] On the evening of 4 December 1992, U.S. President George H. W. Bush made an address to the nation, informing them that U.S. troops would be sent to Somalia. The U.S. contribution would be known as Operation Restore Hope, which joined a multinational force and became known as the United Task Force (UNITAF).^[3] The operations of UNOSOM 1 were suspended. UNITAF was authorized under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter.

[ Day of the Rangers (Somali: Maalintii Rangers) was part of Operation Gothic Serpent and was fought on October 3 and 4, 1993, in Mogadishu, Somalia, between forces of the United States supported by UNOSOM II and Somali militia fighters loyal to president to be Mohamed Farrah Aidid who had support from armed civilian fighters. ]

Overall, UNOSOM II was a failure. It failed to address the root of the problems in Somalia, failed to disarm or capture Aidid, and made no progress in restructuring the government.

So here we are today:   Once again using the term “military advisor” as a fancy term for ‘teachers of, and bankers for, war’.   The CIA is NOT GOOD at developing or training foreign armies, never have been, it is just not their skill set and this Libyan “rebel army” is nowhere near educated or disciplined enough to carry out even the most rudimentary of military strategies.   I hate to be an Eeyore, but this has “Quagmire” and “De-ja-vu” written all over it.
Libyan Governmental forces are following a very familiar playbook when international military intervention is put into play against a regime.   Whether it is the “blue helmet” forces of the UN, or this civil war rebellion, the opponent strategy is the same.  Heck, we have just spent almost a decade watching it in Iraq while we maintained a ‘no fly zone’ there.
Here is how they do it.   Daffy’s army just withdraws from the open battle space into the populated cities and they wait patiently.   The opposing forces, in this case the rebels,  get brave and organize a contingent to enter the city.   Then they are smashed by the regime army and pushed out.   Wash-Rinse-Spin-Repeat.   Each advance by the rebels leaves them with fewer men, equipment, and resources.   This ‘non-traditional’ fighting tactic has become commonplace since the late 1980’s; where an upstart, internal, combat force was combined with the new  “protect from above” non-intervention intervention approach.   (See Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.)
The Daffy army is not stupid enough to form nice little organized convoys and  go on the offensive when they don’t control the airspace and they know they will be sitting ducks.  [Reference the “Highway of Death” for a visual of stupidity when you don’t control the airspace].   So they just retreat to the safety of the population, wait, and then destroy when engaged.   That is why the strategy will fail without an effective ground campaign.   It sure doesn’t look like the “rebels” have the capacity to engage in a ground campaign.   This lends probability to “someone” having to do it for them.   That someone will eventually be us unless we get out of the picture.
As Obama places more and more of this own prideful credibility on the removal of Quackdaffy the likelihood of our getting drawn into the conflict grows stronger.   If Daffy can remain personally safe, his military will continue to fight.   The political baggage from Daffy remaining in power is extremely dangerous for Obama.   AND beyond all else this is what worries me the most. Everything in Obama’s world is based around his own self-interest, his career, and his political clout.   That size individual PRIDE is a dangerous consideration when weighed against what he is willing to do to keep it intact.
He has already shown his refusal to follow the Pentagon and Defense Department advice regarding Libya.   He sees this Libyan campaign as a personal decision, a humanitarian decision, a decision fitting of his own individual “godlike” significance.    So the consequences from such an arrogant narcissistic decision are more likely to be more extreme, as the actions stem from a deep rooted ideological sense of self worth.    This is the type of flawed, self-agenda driven, policy that breeds self-fulfilling prophecies.   Once you do “A”, you are bound to do “B” type of decision-making, regardless of the consequences.   This is dangerous stuff.   Here is an example:

• You choose to intervene in Libya
• You stake your reputation on eliminating Gaddafi from Power
• You depend on the rebels to defeat him.  But…..
• Gaddafi is stronger than the rebels.

Now what?

• You use more airpower to fight with the rebels (AC-130, A-10 Warthog)
• You train the rebels to fight better (Covert Operations)
• You provide better weapons to the rebels (Presidential finding) – Sneak the weapons through the back door via Saudi, or Egypt.   But……
• Gaddafi is still stronger than the rebels.

Now what?

• You authorize helicopters use.   (Technically they are not ground troops)
• You attempt assassination of Gaddafi (Covert Ops)   But……
• Gaddafi is still in place.

Now what?

• You send advisors (with bags of money) to surrounding countries to request, and pay for, parts of their army to join rebels.   Bribes to ?  (ideologically good or bad, we don’t care at this point we are getting desperate)  But….
• Gaddafi is still in place.

Now what?

• You increase the advisors (with bags of more money) and you turn a blind eye to whoever receives the money.  al-Qaeda, Muslim Brotherhood, Jihadists, it no longer matters.  Desperation is thick.     But….
• Gaddafi is still in place.

Now what?

• Screw it, you’ve exhausted every other option.  You send in the Marines to deal with Daffy and hope the population doesn’t turn against you.   But, by now, the population has an opinion of you brought on by your manipulative action that was not based on their needs.  IT WAS BASED ON YOUR SELFISH NEEDS.   According to them (freedom fighters) you’ve been sitting on the sidelines for two months (or two years it doesn’t matter it’s just too long)  without helping.    The rebels know you watched their family get killed, brutalized, raped etc.    Animosity builds in inside the isolation they feel.    Strangely enough, those same rebels, those freedom fighters, that used to love you and begged for help from you, now hate you.

Sound  familiar?    It should. (<—- do not click if sensitive)
This is what it’s called
This is what it looks like
This is the result