CNN has released their latest national poll (full pdf below). Both Donald Trump and Ben Carson add substantive gains to their prior polling support while Bush, Rubio and Fiorina lose substantial support in comparison to prior same poll support.

However, more damaging to the GOPe plans and machinations is a reality the Vulgarian uprising is more enthusiastic and motivated than ever before.

Washington (CNN) – Donald Trump and Ben Carson now stand alone at the top of the Republican field, as Carly Fiorina’s brief foray into the top tier of candidates seeking the GOP nomination for president appears to have ended, a new CNN/ORC poll finds.

Fiorina has lost 11 points in the last month, declining from 15% support and second place to 4% and a tie for seventh place. (more…)

We will not be denied !!

And so it begins.  Here is where the earlier discussions about the vitriolic side of the Bush family begin to surface.  This is where it begins to get personal, and everyone will see exactly how the alliances within the professional political class surface.

It doesn’t come as a surprise, because sooner or later someone was going to have to rip off the band aid.  Regardless of whether you have supported any individual within the construct of the Bush family, those who have watched the political scene for more than a few decades will understand what’s going on. 

After all, it was Dubya’s dad, George Herbert Walker Bush, who represented the establishment class of republicans and was most strenuously against the vulgarian Ronald Reagan in the 70’s…   Old ideologies run deep; and, bottom line, this will probably help Ted Cruz.

(Via Politico) Inside a sleek Denver condominium, George W. Bush let a hundred donors to his brother’s campaign in on a secret. Of all the rival Republican candidates, there is one who gets under the former president’s skin, who he views as perhaps Jeb Bush’s most serious rival for the party’s nomination.

It isn’t Donald Trump, whose withering insults have sought to make Jeb pay a political price for his brother’s presidency. It also isn’t Marco Rubio, Jeb’s former understudy who now poses a serious threat to his establishment support.

It’s George W. Bush’s former employee — Ted Cruz. (more…)

The more time @JebBush spends talking about George W Bush, the more we get to see how @realDonaldTrump strategically outmatches opposition.

— TheLastRefuge (@TheLastRefuge2) October 19, 2015

(Via Buzzfeed) In 2000, 19 months before Sept. 11, 2001, Donald Trump wrote extensively of the terrorism threat the United States was facing.

Trump, who at the time was considering a presidential bid on the Reform Party ticket, went so far as to say that an attack on a major U.S. city was not just a probability, but an inevitability.

“I really am convinced we’re in danger of the sort of terrorist attacks that will make the bombing of the Trade Center look like kids playing with firecrackers,” wrote Trump in his 2000 book, The America We Deserve. “No sensible analyst rejects this possibility, and plenty of them, like me, are not wondering if but when it will happen.”

Trump even mentions Osama bin Laden by name, in a criticism of an American foreign policy that too quickly jumps from one crisis to the next. (more…)

Keeping in mind the WSJ is owned by Rupert Murdoch who has a vested interest in selling a Marco Rubio / Jeb Bush narrative, the latest version of the WSJ/NBC poll shows Trump and Carson gaining distance from the rest of the field.  Conversely Carly Fiorina falls from her previous WSJ/NBC poll when they were promoting her as an alternative to the vulgarian uprising.

(Via NBC)  With the backing of 25 percent of Republican primary voters, Trump is at his highest level of support in the poll since entering the 2016 race. Carson now gets the support of 22 percent of Republican voters, remaining within the margin of error of his first place rival. Last month, 21 percent of GOP primary voters said Trump was their first choice for the party’s nomination, while 20 percent picked Carson.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is in third place, getting support from 13 percent of GOP voters, while Ted Cruz (at nine percent, up four points since last month ) and Jeb Bush (at eight percent, up one point since last month) are in fourth and fifth place, respectively. (more…)

Measuring the Drapes – A report from Florida showcases how Jeb Bush is confident in his primary victory and spending massive amounts of money (Super Pac and campaign) for General Election data collection.

WASHINGTON — Months before the first primaries, Jeb Bush and his allies are building a data-driven operation to turn out voters in the general election much later — spending heavily on the assumption he will overcome his sluggish start and win the Republican presidential nomination.

[…]  the Bush campaign has already used its data system to run thousands of tests simulating the primary elections in the first four states to vote and is building detailed profiles of voters, campaign manager Danny Diaz said in a memo sent last week.

The vendor the Bush team selected to serve both the campaign and super PAC was Digital Core Campaign, run by a former Facebook engineer and Republican National Committee official named Andy Barkett. (more…)

A University of North Florida (UNF) poll, based out of Jacksonville {*ahem*}, finds Donald Trump leading Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush amid 627 registered Florida voters (who have voted in 70% of every election since 2008)

20% of those polled identify as Hispanic/Latino.

*The poll itself is typically what would be called an “agenda poll”.  Both the party conducting the poll, and the ideological presentation of the poll itself reflects intended observational bias.  Lots of questions omitted from presentation, no methodology contained, and example below: (more…)

Jeb Bush appeared on State of The Union with Jake Tapper, stuttering and stammering his way around some push back presentations. If donors needed an excuse to bail out on this campaign, Jeb just gave it to them:

(more…)

When Donald Trump appears on any Fox broadcast two predictable things happen now. First, he’s questioned to paint him into a corner on various issues – they’re looking for headlines. Second, the Fox pundit class lose their collective minds because Marco Rubio and Jebbie are being defeated by this vulgarian.

First the interview:

Then comes the predictable ‘splodey heads (led by George Will): (more…)

Prior research doesn’t support this entire Reuters outline, but it’s not far off.  The GOPe road map can continue unaffected without Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum and Rand Paul.  The “Team Jeb” strategy could also continue without Chris Christie (polling 5% NJ).  Rubio, Fiorina, Kasich and Huckabee are the most valuable to Jeb in that order.

(Via Reuters) […]  The six are: Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, former New York Governor George Pataki, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.

Together, they raised $6 million but spent more than $9.5 million during the summer on everything from postage to travel to campaign rallies. All six are trailing badly in the polls.

[…]  Small donors are the lifeblood of any campaign and candidates will live or die by their ability to tap into a broad base of supporters willing to contribute up to the maximum of $2,700.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who is one of the front-runners in the Republican race, reported nearly 22,000 donors in the last quarter who have given more than $200 so far in the campaign. Bush had 7,300. (more…)

It does not go unnoticed that every media outlet trying to make a controversy of the Donald Trump remarks, during a Bloomberg TV interview with Stephanie Ruhle, does not present the initial question in their selected soundbite.

The question put to Donald Trump was how to show his softer side, his “soft hand”.  Additionally, the reference for the question was Dubya’s performance to comfort a nation after the 9-11 attack.

It was from that reference that Trump was responding and used the 9-11 reference and expanding by saying unpredictable things happen during a presidency.  See video:

It is obvious from the entire context that Donald Trump was drawing a larger reference of how opportunities present themselves to display the “softer hand”.   Alas, constructing a faux-controversy sells more viewer minutes.

Jeb Bush’s response to the nothing-burger highlights more evidence of his desperation, while simultaneously showcasing his willingness to hide behind the apron of tender sensibilities.