A Suffolk University “non-media” poll released today shows exceptionally good news for candidate Donald Trump in the quest to overcome the rigged system. Unlike most media funded polls, the Suffolk poll is very extensive and provides full disclosure on all aspects of the construct allowing for comprehensive research, analysis and evaluation.
The general top line result shows Donald Trump winning with 44%, and Hillary Clinton 41%. However, the fully disclosed methodology provides an even greater level of optimism. Here’s why:
This survey of 500 likely North Carolina general election voters was conducted between September 5 and September 7, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information — including race and age — was determined from previous like elections (link)
We have already statistically quantified the significant variances from 2012 to 2016. Suffolk relying on baselines from ’08 and ’12 presidential models means they are under evaluating the ’16 Trump enthusiasm and Trump registration gap.
Again, Suffolk provides full disclosure and sunlight; their use of historical reference for current cycle is honestly disclosed and understandable.
Additionally: Here’s the key takeaways that, when added to the (understandable) assumption, underscore the exponential optimism:
The poll itself holds a D+9 benefit toward Democrats, which would generally be a benefit to Hillary Clinton.
♦ However, much like Florida (16%), Trump is pulling in large percentages of Democrats. In North Carolina 12% of Democrats are voting Trump.
♦ Additionally, Trump has a 17 point lead with independent voters. 46% Trump, 29% Clinton. (see below)
(Crosstab Banner #1)
Again, the weighting applied to the poll -with low MOE (4%)- is based on historical outcomes from ’08 and ’12 presidential election cycles. Donald Trump has continuously outperformed the Romney campaign in 2012 on all metrics. There is no indication the same trend does not overlay in North Carolina.
In Summary: The top line result of Trump 44 / Clinton 41, when weighed against the reality of visible campaign support in North Carolina (discussed here), appears significantly under-valued for Donald Trump; and that’s ok. The predictive discussion angle should always be kept separate and apart from scientific polling. Like Florida, North Carolina now appears to be solidly in the Trump column.
The Suffolk University Outline is AVAILABLE HERE. Explanation of methodology HERE. Complete/Raw poll data is available HERE (and below), and the Crosstabs are available HERE (and below).
It would be awesome if all polling was conducted with a similar level of professionalism, sunlight, and disclosure. Alas, 90% of emphasized polling is nonsense “media polling” which never includes the raw data, weighting and assumption disclosures.
Trump in North Carolina
Clinton in North Carolina
It won’t even be close folks…
No accounting for the “Monster Vote”!!!
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Trump is closing in on her in Colorado also. One month ago, Clinton had a 13 point lead, McCellan’s poll this week shows that lead has shrunk to 5 points. Clinton has restarted massive TV ad campaign in response.
Colorado is home to an amazing gentleman, patriot extraordinaire and Trump supporter. Navy Lt. Jim Downing, 103 years of age, is one of two remaining survivors of the attack on Pearl Harbor. Another Great American Hero ready to watch President Donald Trump Make America Great Again.
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Not for one second do I believe Trump is going to lose North Carolina and Georgia. Colorado and Pennsylvania? Those are iffy. But North Carolina and Georgia are in the bag no matter what anybody says.
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The enTrumpening continues to gather steam and rollll tide
#MAGA
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Thank You, Sundance!
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Sunshine on the system. Suffolk, unrigged.
Maybe Suffolk will shame one or more of the others to do their work honestly and professionally.
I’m not holding my breath.
In the meanwhile, we can watch the Clinton campaign spasm, the Media got bonkers and the crowds form long lines for 8 hours to hear 40 minutes of Trump Truth.
We get it. Monster of November 8th is rising.
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Zip-A-Dee-Doo-Dah
Zip-A-Dee-A
My oh my, what a wonderful day
Plenty of sunshine heading my way
Zip-A-Dee-Doo-Dah
Zip-A-Dee-A
Mister bluebird on my shoulder
It’s the truth
It’s actual
Everything is satisfactual
Zip-A-Dee-Doo-Dah
Zip-A-Dee-A
Wonderful feeling
Wonderful day
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https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=song+of+the+south+zip+a+dee+dah+video&view=detail&mid=08AD81DBD211A48F5A5408AD81DBD211A48F5A54&FORM=VIRE
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If mr Ed had a match race with secretariat the margin of victory would be embarrassing, Hillary is mr Ed , extrapolate that, have a nice day 😎
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HiLlARy is Pramedya at Pimlico. Trump could be a a snail as long as he stays on track.
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Then there was the actual race in 1975 when Ruffian ran against the Derby winner, Foolish Pleasure in a match race. Ruffian was the favorite, having won all her races (polls) only to break down in that race and losing it.
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Ruffian was put down, on the track.
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I could buy that in this race …
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Can you dig it? I can…”It isn’t even going to be close” ….Sundance…The Last Refuge and the Best
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My home state. I knew that they would go Trump no matter how much the liberal media spun it. NC people believe in hard work and common sense and Trump is right up their alley.
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YES!!!! We are going to win this for DJT.
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Not surprised. Lots of Dems. in NC are like my sister-in-law and her husband. They are old school, rural people–the modern Dem party has left them—they are all in for Trump AND recognized it from EARLY on. (From the escalator ride ) They are God fearing conservative people.
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They polled 9% more Dems and 6% more females and Trump still leads. It will be a blowout in November.
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I am cautiously optimistic. I fear the rigging…
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I noticed that too. Last week CNN ran an article that “unskewed” their latest poll results. Those results showed Mr Trump up by 2 pts. After their adjustment, crooked HIllary was up by 4. I thought it was funny that they can’t cook the data enough so now they have to resort to changing the outcome, yet again, so they can claim Hillary is ahead. I wonder how far ahead Mr Trump really is.
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Check the current numbers on the 97% black vote that went Obama.
Page 15. The North Carolina presidential ballot – BLACK
Hillary @ 84% Trump @ 7%. But Undecided @ 4% + Refused @ 3%.
How many of this 7% are Trumpters who don’t want to be Outed by a Pollster and are anti-Crooked?
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This poll makes much more sense. No way she is going to win NC. Here’s my question. Why in Gods name is she campaigning in North Carolina??
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She got out of bed for two days in a row and spoke for 30 minutes in NC w/o a coughing meltdown. How long can she keep up this brutal pace?
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As long as the drugs keep working.
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LOL! Funny but True.
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It’s so refreshing and energizing to the mental stimuli to read Sundances analysis….compare the intellect of Sundances analysis to this trash..,,complete opposite of smart:
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/09/08/morning-consult-50-state-poll-shows-hillary-large-electoral-college-lead/
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Yep. Let’s not go to HotAir. Not worth the insults!
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Hot Air became a Cruzbot never Trump site and drove away their commenters in January when they switched to Facebook commentary. Ed morrisey has his head firm implanted up Hugh hewitt’s butt. Just sayin’.
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The fact that they’re talking about electoral votes and not state polls means they’re trying to deflect from the elephant in the room. Trump is winning where Romney and McCain weren’t.
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I almost feel sorry for these people. What a way to live..
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surprised to see a couple of treepers spreading the truth there – nasty place & people.
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Yeah I was a huge poster on HotAir and left once they made the FB change and slanted heavily Cruz and Never Trump and I said adios and haven’t been back since…I know a few of the bloggers went and started HotGas.net and that’s a good site.
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I used to like HotAir but noticed how anti Trump they were back in January and stopped reading. I mistakenly went by the site a few days ago to look at it, and it’s actually worse than ever! Mistake. Don’t bother with HotAir anymore…
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Dare I say it, this suggests Hillary Clinton could be going down like a WWII Japanese Battleship (no offense) in the Bungo Straits!
PS. Unless we all don’t GO VOTE on Election Day!
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Isn’t that in area 7 ? (Bungo Straits)
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i thought bungo straits was the fat naked guy at burning man with the sunburned wee-wee & cheeks.
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More good news: Today’s Q poll has Trump +4 in Ohio.
Some better numbers out of Pennsylvania in the next couple weeks, and we can head into Nov. 8th with high confidence. As far as Pennsylvania, never forget that in the primaries the polls overestimated Clinton’s numbers by 4% and underestimated Trump’s numbers by 14.2%.
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Also, look at the unprecedented numbers of PA voters who switched to Rep just to vote for Trump in the primary there. I think PA has been totally underestimated by these agenda driven polls.
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Philadephia Phraud. They will be voting 115% Nov. 8th. We need 1000 lawyers to watch over that city.
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Absolutely….a Republican friend of mine voted in one of those precincts that went 100% for Obama. I won’t share with you his comment about that. Not suitable for a family audience.
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An Emerson poll just came out with RI +3, and NJ +4 for Clinton. To some that would sound like bad news, but I don’t see it that way at all. If it is that close in those two blue states (based upon the pollsters typical bias) that is great news. I wonder how much they manipulated those ones to give her the lead. If RI and NJ go red in the polls it will be full out panic by the pundits and Clinton campaign. I think in reality they already are. 😉
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Hoping CC can help with NJ!
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I live in rural RI and the enthusiasm for Trump is Huge as is rural CT. People are disgusted by clinton..
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Yep! Let’s get out those red shirts, baby. Show for who we’ve voted!
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Agreed. Very important. Especially the early voters. Even mail-ins can show support on E-day.
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for “whom” we’ve voted… it’s real easy. swap he/him or she/her for who and the answer jumps right out… did we vote for he (who) or did we vote for him (whom)?
hated english in school, but the grammar somehow stuck. actually, hated school. unless i had a seat by the window, then it was okay.
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Whats interesting to me is the number of cars here in Chester County, Pa that still have Obama stickers that have not been replaced with Clinton stickers. Most people have removed the Obama stickers they had, but wouldn’t you think the ones who haven’t would have Clinton ones? I am now driving the school bus over 100 miles a day here and have not seen a single Clinton sign anywhere.
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I live in NE Florida and haven’t seen one yard sign or bumper sticker for HRC, only Trump!
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I live in NE Florida in eastern Nassau County and I’ve seen 1 Hillary sign. It’s a big one that would be perfect for target practice if it wasn’t right by a highway.
I’ve seen a couple of Hillary stickers and lots of Trump. To be fair my neighbor’s mother is involved with the dem party here so a demo party official accounts for 2 of the 5-6 Hillary stickers I’ve seen.
Hahaha, typed this on my phone and auto correct kept trying to change “dem” to demon, LOL!
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And stupid auto correct still changed it to demo, argh.
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kim, i’m northern chesco (hopewell village) got my trump sign out, got three more for neighbors.
i’d love to get one on every house on my road – the last real back road left in the county.
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lol, I live 1/2 mile from Hibernia park and have two spots on my road closed for various reasons. I am loving it – no traffic!
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This is why I love CTH so much, we get the pure unvarnished truth, explained in detail!
With the corrupt MSM twisting the truth on an hourly basis, what an incredible breath of fresh air this site is!!
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Nothing but the best for us!
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so donate to CTH – keep the truth alive.
the blacksmith says “cash is the most sincere compliment”.
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What’s with the Dr. Phil image?
Didn’t he get eviscerated or something?
I have no idea since I haven’t watched TV since 2006.
It was bad then and I hear it’s only worse now.
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Lyrics from People Get Ready.
People get ready, there’s a train a comin’
You don’t need no baggage, you just get on board
All you need is faith to hear the diesels hummin’
Don’t need no ticket, you just thank the Lord
People get ready for the train to Jordan
It’s picking up passengers from coast to coast
Faith is the key, open the doors and board ’em
There’s hope for all among those loved the most.
Trump/Pence!
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Hate to show my age, but Curtis Mayfield wrote it but the Chambers Brothers “souled it” even better. One of the all-time greats!
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Live version of Chambers Brothers available on YouTube…
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Maybe someone could post the song? (I’m not that savvy.)
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Here’s a good cover…
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Loved Kenny Rankin. Gone too soon.
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Perhaps this will help.
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thanks!
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Loved it—can’t wait to show it to my brother tomorrow.
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Beautiful song:
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Thank you! Russell Watson (English Tenor) also has a wonderful rendition.
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The most angelic version is IMHO by the too-soon-deceased Eva Cassidy. Goosebumps!
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One thing of note is that in this state, we have more registered Dems than Reps and so the key for a rep to win is those crossing over from either party in the general. In the March primary, Indies were allowed to cross over and vote for a rep ticket or Dem ticket. This poll is good news indeed! If this state does indeed go for Trump, I hope the voters will have the good sense to keep our governor for another four years since our AG Roy Cooper has been too busy campaigning for crooked.
Here is the state’s voter statistics as of 9/3/16. The list is broken down in ABC order by county.
http://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=09-03-2016
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Trump is sealing the deal. He holds a rally in Asheville Monday evening at a venue which holds 7600. I’m going. He is really coming into the belly of the beast, a liberal cesspool. Another Treeper referred to Asheville as the “bastion of Birkenstocks”. With this rally he is covering the state.
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I have a friend who is in Winston Salem. He will vote Hillary due to her open border stance. He makes a living off medical care to the illegials. I am just astounded is all I know to say.
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I feel there are many people on both sides that will vote Hillary because of her open borders, amnesty stance. They financially benefit from illegal immigration.
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Judas coins.
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Camel City is a Trump stronghold; friendly and pleasant spot so even open border types are tolerated. Just not listened to. Send your friend my “hey”. I probably know them…
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Yiour friend has no moral compass nor an allegiance to our national identity. You need better friends.
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Yes Joan I agree. Am livid. Working on new friends. Lol
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New Hanover County Dems-53,209, while Repubs are 51,997 Un Affiliated are *55,614 there is your *Monster Vote*.. Landslide Baby.. 😉 😄
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AND
the so called demexit, disenfranchised bernie supporters, made a difference in voter registrations already..
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This is something as big as the Monster vote in my opinion…If we could find out how many unaffiliated are 18-35, that would be interesting…
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That’s all you can get:
http://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/
August/september
Dem: 2,661,311 / 2,671,858
rep: 2,020,743 / 2,027,347
ind: 1,940,238 / 1,966,004
2012 A/S:
Dem:2,753,838 / 2,763,190
rep: 1,992,465 / 1,999,289
ind: 1,609,644 / 1,630,824
THIS IS SIGNIFICANT!
And shows that most polls weightening is totally off if based on 2012 ..(08 even more so)
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These additional independents are not Hillary voters.
Compared to ’12:
Dems are down aprox. 90 000
Reps up 20 000
Independents up 300 000
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“live telephone interviews of adults” does not tell me whether landline or cell. Many of these polls are landline based. Many 18-35 yo don’t even have a landline. Many older folks who do, don’t answer. I’m going with the Monster vote.
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Said this in another thread—they said on the radio today “NC Board of Elections said thee had been an unprecedented number of unaffiliated voters registering this cycle.”
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Cant be hillary supporters cause the dems are good with one thing: registering any likely voter they can get..
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Trump will win NC, all we have to do is keep on, keeping on. The intelligent population is going to pummel the ignoramuses that lurk among us into the ground.
Had to go to Fayetteville today, saw twoTrump/Pence signs displayed prominently in an affluent neighborhood. Mentioned it to a friend (former Dem.) and he allowed as how he was waiting until 30 days before the election to put his sign out. He also commented that dying was the only thing that would prevent him from voting Trump.
On the way back I saw two more Trump/Pence signs in a low income rural area.
There were NO Hillery signs or bumper stickers, although I did spot a Women for Obama sign in the back window of an older model Subaru. ….same mindset as a Prius owner..
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The numbers in this poll (of those polled) is in direct line with current voter registration in NC. Democrats do hold about a 10% advantage in NC in terms or registrations. The amount of Independent registrations in NC is almost the same as Republicans right now, within about 1/2 of 1%. I know the Independent numbers have grown quite a bit in the last year or so and many of NC’s Independents are Republican-leaning.
Good news. I feel certain he will take North Carolina.
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October/November 1980 National polls
Reagan 40% Carter 44%
Reagan 39% Carter 45%
Reagan 47% Carter 44%
Actual result
Reagan 51% Carter 41%
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I was all in for Reagan living in NoVa….Gallup had Carter 47% Reagan 39% two weeks before the election (Oct 26, 1980). Those were the days when people actually picked up their phone too. So Reagan had a monster vote as well.
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The military all voted for Reagan because Carter was a weak Commander-in-Chief.
It’s the same this year with Obama being so weak. Their vote isn’t counted in the state polls because most all of them are stationed outside their home state. They will have a big impact on vote totals especially if they don’t loose duffle bags full of voter forms from overseas this time.
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lose duffle bags
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which they are already plotting to do…make them arrive late…unable to vote “early”…these slimes will stop at nothing.
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Nice to see Obama unfavorable higher like it should be too.
The weird question of this one is #16. They only polled 19 people ?
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Oh, guess I figured it out. The 19 pertain to a 15.3 which would be those who first choice was Johnson.
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I guess that’s why they (D’s) would like to take Johnson out of race.
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Pat Caddell is a Democrat pollster with a lot of experience. He lambasted and ridiculed Reuters back on Aug 2 for falsifying Hilliary’s bump after the convention.
Not so fast on Hillary’s bump! Pat Caddell says Reuters flat-out ‘cooked’ poll as part of media ‘jihad’ against Trump
August 2, 2016 |
Political strategist Pat Caddell knows a sham when he sees one, and he’s not afraid to call it out, big time.
Caddell was near disbelief by what he called a “cooked” Reuters daily tracking poll he claimed was rigged to favor Democrat Hillary Clinton.
“They not only changed their formula, to put Hillary ahead. They went back and changed the results, for a week of results where Trump was ahead, and then they turned those into Hillary leads,” he said.
“They also erased all the former polling off the site. They didn’t tweak their procedure – they cooked it.”
Well, well, well. Say it isn’t so. But, Caddell didn’t end there, and went on with his allegations.
Please share:
http://www.bizpacreview.com/2016/08/02/not-fast-hillarys-bump-pat-caddell-says-reuters-flat-cooked-poll-part-media-jihad-trump-373322#
Back in 2012 too
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Please share with undecideds and Bernie voters! Hildabeast’s Democrat Party is now the party of the old corrupted Republican politicians. GOPe establishment hacks and uniglobalists are jumping ship to go to Hilla’s corrupted DNC. The Democrat Party is NO LONGER THEIR PARTY! It’s become the Bush’s party. Yikes! Tsunami wave going to Trump’s Republican Party! Lincoln’s party! Not LBJ, John F Kennedy assassin’s party! Share! Share! Share!
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I like your point about Hillary and the Democrats have now joined with the Republican Neo-Cons because the Bush Rino-Libs are jumping ship! That says it all right there.
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Caddell’s comments have been featured prolifically and often exclusively on Breitbart lately, where he most often addresses issues around polling and the media.
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Caddell is probably the only decent and honest Democrat left on the planet.
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Here’s a shortened version of the 2012 speech referenced in that AIM article:
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Add 10% for the Monster Vote and Trump is at 54% in NC ?
Storm clouds should be clearing soon and the psyops oppression of Obamanomics and smart assness will disappear. Free at last!
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The true beauty of this is…for me…that not only will it be a solid rejection of hillary….but the libs/progs/marxzanistas/SJW’s/soros etc….plus the biggest prize of all…..
The shutout will represent a LOUD and CLEAR referendum on the presidency….of….
barack hussein obama….
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overcoming soros will be the prize though: he is evil incarnate.
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NC will go Trump. Strong turnout and new voters in counties outside Wake, Durham, Orange and Mecklenburg counties will shape a Trump victory. Those heavily populated 4 counties are liberal, high numbers of government employees, and much is dependent on government spending – they will see large anti-Trump turnout IMHO.
Right now, Clinton TV ads run constantly and I think they appeal to low information voters and anti-Trump voters. I assume Trump has a surprise waiting in response.
During the Obama regime we in NC broke 100 years of Dem control of our legislature and then a few years later added a Republican governor. So the red tide is still rising.
We have a Legislature that wants to be even more aggressive in moving toward sovereignty and limited government. When it comes to pushing back on the Federal agendas, we have a timid governor who owes the globalists much, and, our AG is a a rabid subversive Obama bootlicker who refuses to challenge federal judges. President Trump will make these problems less of an issue.
NC is poised for explosive growth under the policies of the Trump Presidency
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Plus there have been thousands upon thousands of manufacturing jobs in NC lost to Mexico and China. People in NC are po’d and know Trump is the only one who can help them now.
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N.C. has also played footsie with Obama and federal funding for “light rail” which isn’t light at all on the pocketbooks of the taxpayers. The liberal areas of the Triangle and Mecklenburg County (which is run by the banks BofA and Wells) are still in the tank of Hillary.
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I assume Trump is smart enough to see these polls and see his attempt to “get the black vote” will fail miserably just as all recent Republican efforts have. I hope his strategy was just a show of campaign to blacks to get more of the white vote, which is strange in theory, but makes perfect sense in white battered 2016.
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Sorry, but you are stuck in Dinosaur-land.
This election is not about Democrat vs Republican. It is about Globalist vs Nationalist.
Trump has nothing in common with Romney and McCain.
Take your concern back to Soros Central for new talking points.
Hellary is going to get her corrupt Alinsky azz kicked.
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Blacks vote Democrat. If Trump gets 15% of the black vote, it would be a major victory in the eyes of black votes but in total, it won’t move the needle. THIS POLL shows blacks at less than 10% Trump.
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Lol this troll…
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Yeah, but they gotta try, Bless their Hearts.
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I’m from GA. I see what you did there …
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Reagan broke through with: “Are you better off than you were 4 years ago”
I believe Trump can break through with “Are you better off after 60 years years of voting Democrat?” or maybe “What do you have to lose”? 😉
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On top of that Carter was Dr Doom. Mr Malaise himself.
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Trump smart enough? Doubtful. That’s why he lost the primaries. He probably didn’t take your advice then either.
Bummer.
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Yeah, when you factor in the tone it’s no wonder no one goes to his rallies. I mean, who wants to hear a man with confidence talk about a lame subject like making America America again? Pffffft.
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In the immortal words of the sage…. “He’s finished” HT Bluto
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You’re not even good at the concern trolling. You’re fired!
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Trump will fix Hillary’s trolls and make them work for America again! Just watch!
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NOTHING whatsoever to do with Republican or Democrat…we are far, far outside those boundaries this election cycle.
It is simply about survival this time around…for ALL demographics.
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Are you writing from prison?
You have no clue on what is going on and what Trump is smelling:
The Obama inner city youth vote is gone anyway for any candidate.(unless you get rappers going bling bling Trump)
The fed up black american vote is essentially the same as the white fed up vote. Just painted in another shade.
Agree that some suburbia soccer mom might be relieved that Trump isn’t a racist.. 😉
Trump :” black vote 2020 for Trump will be 95%” . No joked cause he really want to help change lives there.
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WoW! Epic is right. This guy spoke truth. I got chills listening to him, the kind of chills you get when GOD IS SPEAKING.
The video starts with some politician saying they are going to bring those to justice that shot the police, then a local resident comes up to the mic and they let him speak because “he is black.” But what he says stuns them and catches them off-guard, he passionately tells them he is sick of “black on black crime” and how he is tired of not being safe of being shot by a fellow “black person.” He ends his words by righteously rebuking the media “You guys got to do a better job!”
THIS is what Trump is talking about and these are the sentiments he is hearing on the campaign from good folks who live in the inner cities of all skin colors, especially “blacks.” Once again, Trump has correctly assessed the situation of the inner city devastation, not from the criminal’s point of view like Obama and Hillary, but from the DECENT CITIZENS WHO LIVE IN FEAR EVERY DAY IN THE INNER CITIES run by criminals.
PLEASE RT!!
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O gawd, more of the skin color obsession. It’s 2016 NOT 1966! When are Americans going to stop being their skin color? Lame also that “white” also means anybody of any skin color who supports America and Trump regardless of their race or hue of skin.
HISS!
I got news for America: vote Trump or die a horrible death in America cuz without Trump America DIES. Stop with the labels!! The ship is sinking and skin color won’t save us.
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Right on Moni!!!!
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Wow, I am new to this site but you sound like SJW’s who try to shout down anything politically incorrect. Look at this poll! Blacks support Clinton over Trump at 90%. You can’t possible think that race is not important when you see poll numbers like this.
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Ryan, are you with him or with her? The responses you got are because there are no doubters here. We are 100% aboard the Trump Train.
Trump is not only smart but caring and he campaigns on truth and the appeal that he will make America great again for ALL Americans . No Republican has ever dared to publicly address the issues and causes of poor black communities. His outreach to them is a win-win for everyone and his intentions sincere. You suggest he is manipulating them for the white vote. That’s rubbish.
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“Our debt to our men and women in uniform is eternal.
To all those who have served this nation, I say: I will never let you down.
We will protect those who protect us.
And we will follow their example of unity. We will work across all racial and income lines to create One American Nation.
Together, we will have one great American future.
We will be one people, under one God, saluting one American flag.
America will be a prosperous, generous and inclusive society.
We will discard the failed policies and division of the past, and embrace true American change to rebuild our economy, rebuild our inner cities, and rebuild our country.”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/07/transcript-of-donald-trump-military-policyobjectives-speech/
Trump speech 9/7/16/ Worth rereading/INCREDIBLE!
WAKE UP/ WE ARE ALL AMERICANS/ Nothing else matters!
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WTF?
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Trump, if I’m not mistaken, doesn’t even need a majority of black votes to win. He just needs enough to cross over and that’ll do it. It’s not like we’re gunning for a majority black crossover.
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The only state Trump must will in Pennsylvania. Virginia should be an easy win but the democrat gov Terry Mcculife is running the show so he might steal it for Hillary.
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I think Virginia will be tough.
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True:
Go Kelly Ann go 😛
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Additionally, there’s no polling methodology used to measure the “Enthusiasm Factor”. The motivation for Trump is off the charts.
From my experience talking to Trump supporters in Anaheim and in Phoenix, I’ve never seen anything like it in my lifetime. Never, EVER seen people so fired up about a candidate. The people were more animated & excited than any World Series or Playoff game I’ve ever attended.
Motivation & Enthusiasm factor is HUGE. I predict landslide. (have been for a while now)
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A 1980 Reagan voting story. I lived in Fort Worth TX back then. We arrived to the polling station around 6 pm central. We brought lawn chairs and a radio. The line was about 3 hours long. We weren’t even close to getting inside when the networks called the race. It was an all evening party that night. Everyone in line before the polls closed still got to vote it took 2 extra hours to clear the line. No one left. I was 25 and it was my 2nd presidential election. I was raised in a blue collar Union democrat household. I became a total Reaganite and never looked back.
I feel the same vibe this year. Now I am in MI and it feels like a trump sweep here too.
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Great story! I lived in Arlington TX back then, and was 26 years old for that election. I remember standing in line for a LONG time, and the excitement was palpable. I can’t believe I get to live through this awesomeness for a second time in my life. 😄
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Very good point, Bluto. There is no “scientific” measurement of voter intensity. You can only “feel and experience” it. I do not follow or read any more polls because of this reason. They all assumed everyone they called would vote and based their analyses on ‘past” data for future predictions, which probably works in the past, but not this cycle. It is an entirely different environment and circumstance. Dems, historically, always have a higher registration than Reps, so that is a given, but there will a large number staying home this cycle. Remember the mormon loser won NC despite his horrendous campaign and message. I am not concerned at all. BO was a much “better” candidate than the bitch and the mormon loser lost the swing states by 300K+, which could have had given him the oval office. Looking back, it is probably a good thing because if we have that loser in the white house, the bitch will probably win this cycle and DJT would not have run. BTW, an approximate 7 million white voters stayed home in 2012. We can all “slice and dice” about the minority votes, but it will come down if the white voters will show up or not.
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The LAtimes poll actually scores on a 0 to 100 basis so it does capture enthusiasm to an extent. Doesn’t capture newbie voters though.
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Here is a site measuring enthusiasm.
https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/latest-polls/election-2016/us-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/
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Notice this bs poll is completely focused on race yet gives no options to multi-racial people what does that say? Race is a MYTH
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Noticed the pollers are prompted to ask for the youngest in the household. Now I wonder why that would be the case…hmmmmmm? /s
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They know that if they poll the older, more reliable voters, it would be a yuge margin for Trump.
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If someone called my house and asked to speak to the youngest, I would promptly hang up.
creepy to me
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Let me explain:
The polsters have quotas for every category: age, gender, income, political affiliation, etc. The have to reach the quota no matter what. They ask for the youngest in the household because making the quota for 18-24 yrs. olds is the most difficult to make.
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Running errands today in Saratoga Springs, NY, and stopped to grab a few slices for lunch. They had three jars on the counter, one for a local state Rep., one for Trump and one for Killery. There was money for Trump and money for the local guy, zero in Killery’s. I said to the clerk small poll sample but this is interesting. She told me Killery hasn’t gotten a dime in weeks, love it!
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I thought this was an interesting nugget from today’s Q polls:
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Trump should win North Carolina. My concern is the Voter ID law was not upheld in the court. In 2008, I remember reading story after story from eyewitnesses of people being bused in from another state to vote for O. I hope that the Governor, the GOP, and the Trump campaign are on top of this. There needs to be poll watchers/workers at every single station in the state. Also, I believe that early voting starts there tomorrow. They are going to have to spend some extra $$$ and invest in bodies to watch for voter fraud.
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I saw this firsthand in Illinois in our last gubernatorial election. I live near a very liberal college, and there were a lot of non-Illinois residents (one in particular openly admitted to a friend behind me that he’s from New York) that were voting, primarily because our then-governor, Pat Quinn, a well-connected Democrat, was running for reelection against our current governor, Republican Bruce Rauner. The New Yorker openly admitting he was voting and that his parents told him to “vote for Quinn”.
Luckily Quinn lost, but I don’t know how this kid got away with voting in a state he doesn’t live in.
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I think it’s quite obvious Hillary’s entire campaign and candidacy is a SCAM. Just like Obama in 2012 in which they rigged and cheated and Obama had empty halls and a lack of interest by voters. But THIS is so pathetic with Hillary, they can’t even pull it off this time. BUT THEY WILL TRY SO WE MUST REMAIN DILIGENT AND SHOW UP IN DROVES TO VOTING POLLS, among other things to stop their cheating. This is America’s LAST CHANCE.
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The nerdy Dem bloggers keep insisting the size of the rally crowds have no direct relationship to the final vote They point to Romney’s large crowds in 2012. But the major difference is Obama was drawing huge crowds too. Clinton is not anywhere close to the enthusiasm for Obama. Her crowds are actually pathetic.
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True, just want to add that there was a whole lotta cheating going on in 2012 for Obama.
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Yes there was. Thank you for pointing that out.
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Yep. I remember it well. There were numerous stories of the touch screen machine votes flipping to Obama, voters supposedly coming back from the dead to vote, and of course individuals voting numerous times in different locations and bragging about it to others. That’s NC for you. 😉
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Romney drew large crowds at the END — mid October on (after 1st debate that he did so well out before thinking he could “sit on his lead”).
Trump has been drawing these crowds from the beginning & for over a year — which is way more than even Obama ever did. (The really, really HUGE crowds Obama drew had free concerts & food too — MSM never reported that tidbit)
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The whole month of September was good for Romney. I went to a rally in late September in a Philly suburb and it was packed with people. Huge crowd.
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Hillary’s rally in Charlotte today must have been a regular snooze fest. Maybe not unlike this scene:
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That’s exactly what I hear when she talks, lol
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Hell my bedroom is larger than that….
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If Trump gets 12% of the Black vote in Illinois he will flip the state. He might already win Illinois. Governor Quinn (D) won with 2 of 104 counties, Governor Rauner (R) won 103 of 104 in this last election.
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Michigan could also flip. Survey Monkey has Cankles + 2. Cankles – Bernie polls were off by 20+.
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I just looked at the numbers again. If 16% of the black vote just stays home and doesn’t vote for Trump he will win Illinois. Let me see if I can put this in some coherent form.
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I agree with my fellow Tarheels, NC is going Trump, and it will not be close. Trump signs are just now available from the local GOP – I expect to see even more signage in the next few weeks. Hubby travels across the state with work; people are open about Trump support. That smells like a landslide.
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Hillary is speaking in Kansas City. Here are pictures of the (non existent) crowd.
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What is with all the people in white sheets?
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Choir
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National Baptist Convention.
Choir robes is my guess.
That guys tweets are interesting. They had to block off a lot of the Auditorium. And shots of empty chairs in the “occupied” section.
Kansas City. Another “Yikes worthy” rally.
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“The room was far from full, but organizers say her speech was a last-minute addition to the calendar with competing events that many had already committed to.
“It has nothing to do with, ‘Well, they don’t like her or they didn’t want to hear her,'” said Patricia Carter of Ft. Lauderdale. “The schedule for the convention is made months and months in advance.”
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Did anyone else notice that Trump was the only candidate that received ZERO “never heard of him” responses? Love it.
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Is Hillary for real? This does not describe her at all. What a joke.
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In addition to being a compulsive liar and a murderer, she is also out of her delusional mind.
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Looks like a new Twitter writing team. Too bad, the first bunch were REALLY bad.
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Not a one of those even remotely describes Hillary nor her past actions thus she is obviously stating that Trump should be president… I agree with her
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What does it mean to “do justice”. – should be “be just”. Is she mocking AA cultural slang?
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Sundance, you will need a new animated graphic for #ColdAnger. The ginger haired lassie should have her hand raised in victory. She can make her debut on election night.
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Pass this one around the nation, social media, et al.
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DC Hotel, Monday on Fox.
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Boy this hotel is going to twist some of the media into pretzels. I LOVE IT
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Ugh
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Have always felt this is a state he needs to win. NC has become so PC in the past 15-20 years with so many “yankees” moving in.
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I’ve heard that Ashville is a liberal hell hole on par with any in the country.
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Cambridge, MA of the south
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Another good pool I follow daily has Trump jumping back into the lead today nationally. Post everyday around 1100AM
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/08/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-pushes-ahead-of-Hillary-Clinton/8281473343152/
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opps poll
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Just remember, folks, the more Hillary is out there, the more people dislike her. Bring her on!
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I would not be surprised if she tried to call in sick for the debates.
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I am so freaked out over the Voter fraud at 15 % in swing states , I hope they will be all over this . Didn’t you see Hillary attacking N Carolina today ?????
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HB2 and Voter ID law will bring many to polls. Hoping Mcrory does not bring down Trump in NC.
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