NOTE – Bookmark this post and date for reference in November 2016.
A recent Rasmussen poll (unfortunately, private data) shows Hillary Clinton 37% and Donald Trump 36% in a statistical dead heat. However, if you look at the actual data as presented by Rasmussen you find:
[…] Seventy-five percent (75%) of Democrats back Clinton, up five points from October. Trump draws support from 63% of Republicans, virtually unchanged from the previous survey. Unaffiliated voters prefer Trump 36% to 25%, but 29% of these voters like some other candidate. These findings also are similar to the October survey. (link)
If Trump is tied with Hillary and yet only 63% of identified Republicans support Trump this means a larger portion of Republicans are “non-Trump”, than Democrats who are “non-Hillary”. Here’s the math as presented which shows how centrist and dominant Donald Trump’s appeal is.
Example if each population (Dem, Rep, Indy) is 1,000:
Hillary gets 750 (75%) Dems + 250 (25%) Indies = 1,000 total
Trump gets 630 (63%) Repubs + 360 (36%) Indies = 990 total
The 12% deficit between Trump and Clinton from party loyalists (75% vs 63%) is made up by a similar percentage advantage toward Trump of “unaffiliated” or independent voters.
Trump overcomes any statistical deficit with the support of independents who favor him by 11 points (36 to 25) over Hillary.
However, yet again, think about the 37% of Republicans NOT supporting Trump in a two-way race. These anti-Trump Republicans you can essentially define against all previous identifiers, outlines and articles as Jeb’s professionally republican GOPe coalition.
This electoral reality is quite stark when you think about it for several reasons:
♦ Point #1) It is virtually identical to Ronald Reagan’s 1979 coalition when he told the professionally republican he was going to identify and target ‘conservative’ democrats and ‘conservative’ independents to join his campaign. In 1978/79 the ‘Old-Boy-Network’ within the GOP apparatus was furious at Reagan for reaching out to non-Republican members to join the party.
♦ Point #2) Team CLINTON must be mortified at the reality of this poll because it shows Trump crushing Clinton with independents. Even with Hillary Clinton carrying a dominant 75% of the vote support from her own party she still can’t beat Trump – because Trump destroys her with Independents.
♦ Point #3) If the GOPe finally concede they have lost to Trump and a similar percentage of Republicans vote to support Trump as support Clinton, the race won’t even be close – IT WOULD BE A WIPE OUT. Trump would be ahead by 8-10% ! The general election result would be Reaganesque.
♦ Point #4) The Professionally Republican, the members of the Good-Old-Boys-Club, are elitist moonbats refusing to support the frontrunner. If the roles were reversed, if it were their boy Jeb! in the lead for six months, they would be demanding all other opponents drop out and support “their guy”.
This reality is why the Clinton and Bush camps are in full apoplectic meltdown. If they don’t stop Donald Trump, he’s going to crush them both in a landslide of epic proportions: