Occam’s Razor and The White House Position On The Petraeus Affair…

Oh yeah…. and just for sheer tentacle insanity watch for General John Allen to now get pulled into the mix…..  fyi.

As best we can understand the evolving narrative here is what it looks like:

Jill and Dr. Scott Kelley live in the Tampa / St. Pete area.  They are active in the military community with support for military families.   The Kelley’s do numerous fundraisers etc. and when Petraeus was assigned to station in Tampa the Kelley’s hosted a meet-n-greet with Holly and David Petraeus.  Mr and Mrs. Petraeus became friends with Mr. and Mrs. Kelley.

So Jill Kelley, a Petraeus family friend, began receiving odd and harrassing e-mails about her relationship with CIA director General David Petraeus:

“More like, ‘Who do you think you are? … You parade around the base … You need to take it down a notch,’” according to the source, who was until recently at the highest levels of the intelligence community and prefers not to be identified by name.

Kelley then reaches out to a family friend who is by profession in the FBI.   She asks if these unsourced e-mails reach the level of cyber-stalking.

The FBI “friend” takes her to a field office where he puts her in contact with the “cyber-crimes” division/agents.   There they essentially come to the conclusion that the statute on cyber-stalking does actually seem to apply, so they open a preliminary case.

The first step in that aspect of the case is to back-check the IPs etc to find the origin of the e-mails to Kelley. That investigative part finds Paula Broadwell as the origin of the e-mails to Kelley. So the FBI gets a subpoena to dig further into the Broadwell electronic mail accounts. *Note the investigation at this point is into Paula Broadwell*

During the research of her communication it becomes apparent that she is in contact with CIA Director General David Petraeus on some personal level.

While this is occuring, the original FBI friend (unknown) of Kelley is asking the Cyber division people on the case for updates. They provide him some information based on professional courtesy.   He in turn then relays this information to Jill Kelley herself, who then begins to inform her friend, General Petraeus, of the source. Essentially telling Petraeus “heads up” this woman you know has been identified as the origin of threatening e-mails to me. (*Note* whether Kelley knew of the affair aspect at this time is unknown).

Simultaneously, the FBI friend of Kelley sends a personal, perhaps flirtatious, picture to Kelley that the FBI becomes aware of (they are monitoring Kelley’s communication). The FBI, is not comfortable with the “non-professional” relationship between the FBI friend and Kelley, and they inform him he is ‘cut out’ of the story. (The FBI probably know that Kelley is also back-channelling information from this guy to her friend Gen Petraeus – any investigator would not like this loss of control).

As the CIA Director becomes involved in the story, the FBI friend, now ‘cut out’, then perceives the story/investigation as potentially being buried because of the people involved. So he takes the bit of “outsider” information he knows to a congressman, who in turn, takes the information to House Majority Whip, Congressman Eric Cantor.

Congressman Cantor then reaches out to the FBI and asks if General Petraeus is the subject of an investigation. Essentially, Cantor is long-armed by his inquiry because, in essence, General Petraeus is NOT the subject of an FBI investigation–Paula Broadwell is.

However, subsequent to the Cantor inquiry “higher ups”  (FBI Director Robert Mueller) within the FBI is then notified.   Mueller is told there is this investigation of this woman (Broadwell) which attaches her to CIA Director Petraeus in a rather sordid fashion.

The “affair is now outed.”

During the investigation it is noted that General Petraeus has been sexually involved with the Broadwell woman, however there is no law-breaking per se’ on the part of the General, nor is he lying or covering it up.

So technically, there was no investigation of General Petraeus, only Paula Broadwell. So technically, there is no notification to the Senate Intelligence Oversight Committee because they don’t tell the oversight committee about affairs, or personal indiscretions, only about unlawful activity being investigated.

At some point (late summer – Sept.) the FBI head, Director Robert Mueller, now needs to tell the DOJ -Eric Holder- about Petraeus showing up on the radar of an investigation into another party.

Again, it appears no law was broken, and Petraeus was NOT the source of the investigation. The FBI interviews Petraeus to discuss, he admits, and they find no security breach – so it is not illegal.

After the investigation into Broadwell / Petraeus, a letter of investigative finding is filed (late Oct).

Subsequently, because Petraeus is outlined in the investigation of Broadwell, the Director of National Intelligence, Clapper, is notified (Nov). Clapper then calls Petraeus and tells him the affair is going to come out because two congressmen have also knowlege of it – further it compromises his position as CIA Director. Clapper recommends resignation.

The following day Clapper then tells the President of the conversation and recommendation. The following day President Obama calls Petraeus to the White House, they discuss, they agree on resignation.

Story could have stopped there….. it didn’t because…. Benghazi and….

…… as the newly awakened media begins looking backwards to Paula Broadwell they find these statements from Broadwell about CIA operations in Benghazi that could only have come from her relationship with General Petraeus, “pillow talk.”

Given the relationship revelation, the speech at Colorado University by Broadwell, takes on a new level of meaning. As Broadwell outlines her statement that the Benghazi CIA “Annex” was also a CIA detention facility of sorts, it becomes obvious that she might be in posession of leaked CIA classified information. Her claim of Benghazi Militia members being held at the CIA compound is NOW the issue of investigation.

In essence–“Did Petraeus tell Broadwell CIA secrets?”  now becomes the story.

FBI agents were at the Broadwell home in North Carolina Monday night to carry out a consensual search that had been arranged with her lawyers, law enforcement sources said. The search was to locate additional classified material on computers or documents in the home, the sources said.

Broadwell appears to be cooperating with investigators in an effort to make this go away, to show that she has nothing else to hide, the sources said.

But House Majority Leader Eric Cantor knew of Petraeus’ affair with Broadwell almost two weeks before the former CIA director resigned his post.

A senior Cantor aide told ABC News that the Republican congressman from Virginia learned about the FBI investigation that brought the affair to light in a phone conversation with an FBI agent Oct. 27.

Cantor then asked his chief-of-staff to pass the information along to the head of the FBI, Robert Mueller. Cantor spoke to no one else about the investigation, the aide said.

Hurricane Sandy delayed the message to Mueller until Oct. 31. Petraeus admitted the extramarital relationship and submitted his resignation nine days later.  (more)

…. and oh yeah, watch out for the General Allen story to connect to Jill Kelley :(

[...]  In a new twist to the Gen.  David Petraeus sex scandal, the Pentagon said Tuesday that the top American  commander in Afghanistan, Gen. John Allen, is under investigation for alleged  “inappropriate communications” with a woman who is said to have received  threatening emails from Paula Broadwell, the woman with whom Petraeus had an  extramarital affair.

Defense  Secretary Leon Panetta said in a written statement issued to reporters  aboard his aircraft, en route from Honolulu to Perth, Australia, that the FBI  referred the matter to the Pentagon on Sunday.  Panetta said that he ordered a Pentagon investigation of Allen on  Monday.

Allen, a four-star Marine general, succeeded Petraeus as the top American  commander in Afghanistan in July 2011.

The senior official, who discussed the matter only on condition of  anonymity because it is under investigation, said Panetta believed it was  prudent to launch a Pentagon investigation, although the official would not  explain the nature of Allen’s problematic communications.

The official said 20,000 to 30,000 pages of emails and other documents  from Allen’s communications with Kelley between 2010 and 2012 are under review.  He would not say whether they involved sexual matters or whether they are  thought to include unauthorized disclosures of classified information.

He said  he did not know whether Petraeus is mentioned in the emails.

“Gen. Allen disputes that he has engaged in any wrongdoing in this  matter,” the official said. He said Allen currently is in Washington.  (More)

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86 Responses to Occam’s Razor and The White House Position On The Petraeus Affair…

  1. 22tula says:

    So, the harassing E-mails sent by Paula Broadwell or others, was the “Fuse,” and the Denver Speech, delivered by Paula Broadwell was the “Bomb.” Sensitive “Pillow Talk,” leaks? Leaks or Lies? It’s all in the prep work.

    Like

  2. Mikado Cat says:

    Would a search of the emails directly pinpoint Paula Broadwell, or could it be her husband?

    Why would anyone working in intel assume an email would not be traced?

    Patraeus is not Broadwells only source of information. She is a member of that closed invite only anti terrorist group.

    Like

  3. lovemygirl says:

    Someone the other day asked if Jill had a twin sister and was that her in the background giggling. The answer is yes. In another “bead” photo linked here.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2231411/David-Petraeus-scandal-Jill-Kelley-revealed-woman-complained-FBI-Paula-Broadwell.html

    Celebration: (Left to right) Jill Kelley’s twin sister Natalie Khawam, Gen Petraeus, Scott and Mrs Kelley, and Holly Petraeus watch the Gasparilla parade from the Kelley family’s front lawn in this 2010 photo

    Now what is with the beads? Did they just get back from Mardi Gras after flashing their TaTas?

    Like

  4. lovemygirl says:

    One piece of the puzzle I believe may be true. Is it as simple as this?
    President Barack Obama issued an executive order in January 2009 stripping the CIA of its authority to take prisoners. Executive Order 13491 – Ensuring Lawful Interrogations.
    But he secretly allowed it to continue and then Benghazi happened and he could not allow it to be exposed before the election.

    Like

    • All aspects do appear to pointing at this simple explanation. The CIA Annex use was not just CIA – the Pentagon, State Dept, and DoD all appear to be involved in ongoing Libyan operations in Benghazi – around this compound and the “consulate”.

      It could very well be true that the CIA was not detaining prisoners per se’, that could have been a function of the DoD with the CIA contractors merely providing assistance vis-a-vi interrogation/questioning…. nudge, nudge,…. wink, wink.

      There is enough plausible deniability built into these operations to allow all players an exit strategy. Or so it appears.

      Like

  5. lovemygirl says:

    Is it just a coincidence Kelly looks like a Kardashian?

    Like

  6. dizzymissl says:

    Can we quit calling Petraeus a good guy?

    More so than any other leading military figure, Petraeus’ entire philosophy has been based on hiding the truth, on deception, on building a false image. “Perception” is key, he wrote in his 1987 Princeton dissertation: “What policymakers believe to have taken place in any particular case is what matters — more than what actually occurred.”

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/mhastings/the-sins-of-general-david-petraeus

    Like

    • Michael Hastings is a RABID Petraeus “hater” of the highest magnitude. He was one of the most vocal anti-bush media types during the WMD discussion. Hastings is so far filled with hate of the military – though he will attempt to hide it religiously – he has lost any and all semblence of rationality. I believe Hastings was also the author of the Rolling Stone hit piece that took out Gen. Stanley McChrystal because McChrystal spoke bluntly of Obama administration officials.

      http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/exclusive-excerpt-the-operators-by-michael-hastings-20120103

      I would not put any credence in Hastings’ writings – at all. Sorry :( He has an agenda to everything he writes.

      Like

      • dizzymissl says:

        Oh, ok.

        Have you seen the comments that are saying Jill Kelley, Social Planner = Jill Kelley, Madam?

        Like

        • Lulu says:

          She was a volunteer community (Tampa) liaison with the military base. She was instrumental in raising money so that enlisted men could go to military balls. She was so well thought of that the coalition that makes up CENTCom gave her an award, a certificate naming her an “honorary ambassador” to the countries in the coalition.

          It was in this capacity that she and her husband welcomed General Petraeus and his wife to Tampa when he was assigned there, and entertained them at their home. It has been reported that she shopped with Mrs. Petraeus, and that the Kelleys were entertained by the Petraeuses in Washington.

          I hope that we are not letting her appearance affect our reason.

          Like

          • John Galt says:

            “I hope that we are not letting her appearance affect our reason.”

            Her appearance, mode of dress, receipt of shirtless FBI agent pic and 20,000 inappropriate emails affects my reason. This will get really good.

            Like

          • Sam says:

            If she were 50 or 60 years old and didn’t dress in what looks like seduction wear, then her appearance would have nothing to do with it. If she looks like she does and dressed in sober looking business suits or slacks and jackets, nobody would be suggesting she did more than plan events. Face it, she’s hot and she flaunts it.

            Like

          • ctdar says:

            As per menostupid’s link below….Kelly’s are millions in debt…I guess 15 minutes of fame and a book deal is worth more than their “friendship” with the Petraeus family

            Like

  7. GracieD says:

    I cannot help thinking that this whole thing is about discrediting the Military. SD, I would be interested in your take on this. Is this a puzzle piece?

    Like

    • ottway says:

      I had the same thought. It seems like the top military is being taken down. First it was Gen. Hamm at AFRICOM and, I believe, a Navy Admiral. Then Petreaus and now Gen. Allen.

      Like

    • The Tundra PA says:

      Gracie, Glenn Beck is saying the same thing. He mentioned yesterday on the radio that the four elements needed to take over a country/government are the education system, the media, the entertainment industry, and the military. The Left has accomplished the first three. Gaining the military requires destruction of our trust in them. We are watching the beginning of the Left’s efforts in that regard.

      Like

      • 22tula says:

        So goes Our Military Might, so goes Our Dollar.

        “Mack, McCalister blast Nelson for skipping Charlotte to defend defense”
        September 5, 2012

        “Bill Nelson voted to gut our military readiness, in order to raise the debt ceiling to pay for ObamaCare and wasteful stimulus spending. He has put the brave men and women who dedicate their lives to keep us free and secure in even more danger, not less,” Mack stated in a news release. “Instead of fighting to stop this reckless slash of our military, Bill Nelson will naively suggest that he never intended this to happen, and pen letters to Republicans trying to cover up his actions. But make no mistake, Bill Nelson made this happen, and the rhetoric is far from the record. In an effort to appease his beloved President Obama, Bill Nelson cut the deal at the expense of the military personnel in Florida and across the nation. It’s shameful and Bill Nelson must be held accountable by the voters of Florida for his dereliction of duty”

        http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2012/09/mack-mccalister-blast-nelson-for-skipping-charlotte-to-defend-defense.html

        “More Than a Currency”
        By JR Nyquist – June 27, 2011
        “The democratic world accepts the dollar, and will continue to accept the dollar, as long as the United States maintains its military strength.” – JR Nyquist

        http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jr-nyquist/2011/06/27/more-than-a-currency

        “This is my last election. After my election I’ll have more flexibility.” BO

        Barack Obama was very confident that he would win the election.

        Nothing to see. Move on. Forward!

        http://theconservativemonster.com/?p=5195

        Oh wait Drunk with Happiness

        http://theconservativemonster.com/?p=5124

        Like

    • apachetears says:

      The military guards and defends the Constitution with them compromised and purged they will not be so eager to defend anything but Obama’s lies.

      Like

  8. lovemygirl says:

    Panetta also said he wants the Senate Armed Services Committee to act promptly on Obama’s nomination of Gen. Joseph Dunford to succeed Allen as commander in Afghanistan. That nomination was made several weeks ago. Dunford’s hearing is also scheduled for Thursday.

    Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/general-probed-alleged-inappropriate-communications-jill-kelley-article-1.1201057#ixzz2C6Do0pqe

    Like

  9. dizzymissl says:

    Petraeus Advisers: General Didn’t Want to Step Down Over Affair

    http://www.heavy.com/news/2012/11/petraeus-advisers-general-didnt-want-to-step-down-over-affair/

    So, he was not going to step down, but then it became public so he had to step down. Was this why, in September, he said that the attack in Benghazi was due to the video–because this was hanging over his head?

    Like

  10. lovemygirl says:

    Jill Kelley has hired some of the most astoundingly powerful criminal defense and PR help imaginable:

    They hired Abbe Lowell, a Washington lawyer who has represented clients such as former presidential candidate John Edwards and lobbyist Jack Abramoff. And the couple are employing crisis PR person Judy Smith, who has represented big names like Monica Lewinsky, Michael Vick and Kobe Bryant.

    http://www.emptywheel.net/2012/11/13/digital-tal-john-jill-dave-paula/

    Like

  11. Mikado Cat says:

    Sounds like it could get big big.

    Like

  12. dizzymissl says:

    Petraeus helps whistleblower’s ‘unstable’ twin in nasty custody fight

    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/twisted_sister_wPCTY0kcH9xu9DPh8RN7yL

    Like

  13. John Galt says:

    “The official said 20,000 to 30,000 pages of emails and other documents from Allen’s communications with Kelley between 2010 and 2012 are under review.”

    WTH?? A typical box of photocopy paper contains 5,000 pages.

    At one minute per page, 20,000 minutes = 333.33 hours just to review.

    Like

  14. Pingback: Is it the Petraeus or the Kelley Affair? — War in Context

  15. yankeeintx says:

    Occam’s Razor? So why are our top military leaders being asked to resign/retire/be replaced? How will this affect the lower ranks and the enlisted, when they see the cream of the crop basically getting away with things that would lead to punishment for them? Moral is already pretty low in the military, and this could create a lot of turmoil. Our country can not be overrun without overrunning our military first.

    Another point is that many are saying the fact that Petraeus had an affair is not serious, but secrets he might have shared is the real problem. Don’t forget that Broadwell is a Lt. Colonel in the Army Reserves, and has worked with the FBI Terrorism Task Force. I doubt that the General shared anything with her that she was not qualified to hear within her own security clearance. The military shares information on a “need to know” basis, and though she may have had no “need” it doesn’t mean she couldn’t be trusted with any information.

    Could the Occam’s Razor conclusion be to dismantle the military from the top. Install/enlist those who psych evals show that they can be easily controlled and manipulated. With the coming cuts to our military there will be “early outs” offered to many “higher-ups”. Our military is becoming very technologically advanced, so who are they going to put in charge of flying the armed drones over our soil?

    Like

  16. ED357 says:

    Petraeus used for Benghazi cover and thrown to the wolves……….

    I wonder how many more will have dirt dug up over the next 3 years and released……

    If you think Chicago politics in DC will end with Barack Hussein 0bama……..

    you missed the trial balloon……..

    Google………Michelle 0bama 2016.

    Like

  17. marie says:

    If it really is a question of the Chicago thugs digging up dirt on a bunch of higher ups, seems turnabout it fair play. They can start with his academic records.

    Like

  18. yankeeintx says:

    This may be inappropriate, but it sure is funny:

    Like

  19. Gabby says:

    The twins look like muslims and so does the doctor husband.

    Like

    • stellap says:

      Lebanese. From Philadelphia.

      ADD: She was born in Lebanon of Maronite Christian parents (allies of Israel during the Lebanese civil war).

      Like

  20. Sam says:

    One tiny little nit of a correction: Broadwell gave her speech at the University of Denver, often called Denver University or DU for short. It’s a private and expensive university founded in 1864 that has no relation to the public University of Colorado, often called Colorado University or CU for short. Denver University has an acclaimed International Studies graduate school. That’s the one Broadwell went to as did Condi Rice.

    Like

  21. 22tula says:

    “Woman who Sparked Petraeus Investigation, has Lebanese Background”
    by Daniel Greenfield – November 13, 2012

    http://frontpagemag.com/2012/dgreenfield/woman-who-sparked-petraeus-investigation-has-lebanese-background/

    Like

  22. Pingback: Occam’s Razor and The White House Position On The Petraeus Affair… | ar10308

  23. myopiafree says:

    Late breaking news – yes another “twist” – in the “Jill story”
    +++++
    Petraeus Whistleblower Jill Kelley Has Millions in Debt | NR

    The woman who cried wolf after allegedly receiving threatening emails from CIA Director David Petraeus’ mistress reportedly owes her bank millions of dollars and is the target of foreclosures.
    ++++++
    Jill thought she could make million$$$ by getting the FBI to investigate the email “threats”. Hoisted by her own petard – I would say.

    Like

  24. Mikado Cat says:

    Seems like a lot of believing what you read in the media going on here.

    So far to my eye the only thing certain is that all of the main players have made HUGE personal efforts to serve their country or assist people in the service of our country.

    Like

  25. myopiafree says:

    Jill was no angel – by any standard.
    +++++
    Jill Kelley Ran a Bogus Cancer Charity, Wants ‘Diplomatic Protection’
    By Adam Clark Estes | The Atlantic Wire – 12 hrs ago

    Like

  26. Pingback: News: Graham Grovels to the rebel Kerry, offers ‘Help’ With John Boehner | Pitts Report

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