For those who have been following closely, the economic data releases over the past several months have been almost impossible to reconcile from a Main Street perspective. Additionally, the scale of inflation is skewing everything that stems from dollar valuation.
CTH is certain the fourth quarter GDP statistic (+6.9%) is useless and was an outcome of several flawed metrics: (1) the import data was misrepresented and not accurately deducted (supply chain issue); (2) the value of building inventories was over calculated as an outcome of inflation; and (3) the value of all economic activity was subsequently skewed because the economic outputs (goods and services) were recorded at higher prices.
It has been our estimation that Main Street economic activity was substantially less than the data discussed by financial pundits.
Our review also sees the employment situation on Main Street as considerably less optimistic than claimed. Bolstering that point, in a very weird and structured preview from the White House, spokesperson Jen Psaki made an odd statement today. WATCH (14:35 prompted):
Psaki is prepositioning a narrative that employment data in January will be lower than expectations, perhaps considerably lower, as a result of “workers calling out sick” from COVID, ie. the omicron variant, during the time when employment polling was conducted. That is a very unusual proactive narrative.
Those talking points would not get into the briefing material if there wasn’t a person highly concerned in the economic circle to put them there. Quite frankly, this is a talking point the White House spokesperson would never have in their briefing book if there wasn’t an advanced notification of their need for it.
Someone knows something.
Given the nature of how heavily manipulated the government institutions are, there’s a strong likelihood the Bureau of Labor and Statistics have been surprised by their employment polling results. That internal tremor, a concern amid the political tribe, is then conveyed to someone, who then relays the warning to the White House economic team…. and that’s how Psaki gets the briefing material.
In the background of this unusually proactive economic and employment notation, the Atlanta FED recently released their forward-looking estimation [DATA HERE] of the first quarter GDP. Keeping in mind the official 4th quarter result was +6.9%, the Atlanta Fed is saying the first quarter of 2022 looks like 0.1%.
[DATA SOURCE – Graphic Source]
The economy of the United States doesn’t go, heck, cannot go, from 7% to ZERO in one quarter without some massive dynamic, like closing down the economy…..
Unless….
Unless, the 6.9% was manufactured horsepucky from the outset.
The economy doesn’t go from 6.9% growth in December to ZERO growth a few days later without something substantive happening in the background. My guess is the inventory buildup, cited by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in December, was the result of a massive drop in demand that took place in the three previous months.
The inventory and inflation driven inventory evaluation that helped inflate the metric of the Gross Domestic Product, was not the result of the supply chain coming back to normal. I will bet a donut the inventory buildup was specifically because demand collapsed.
My view of that situation is supported by the historic drop in productivity that was noted in the last half of 2021. The federal spending, and the federal subsidies for businesses and corporations to retain employees, ran past the period where payrolls would have naturally contracted due to the drop in demand.
If I am correct, the employment situation was artificially influenced, because interventionist COVID spending/bailouts allowed payrolls to be covered, and employees to remain on the payroll register, during a time when they should have been dropped if natural sales/profits were responsible for filling the payroll accounts of companies. This would explain the macro drop in productivity while macro employment was retained.
The natural outcome of that viewpoint is…. When the federal deposits into the private sector payroll accounts dry up, employers eventually drop employees.
That rather dramatic scenario is enough to trigger the BLS to freak out when they did the payroll polling.
Just a hunch… We’ll find out on Friday.
Look at Ukraine and Canada nothing to see here! FJB LGB
The Biden administration is more concerned about Ukraine’s border than they are our southern border. Biden puts out the welcome mat telling all to come here, then he stands and says we need to look at the reasons they want to come here. No one can be that dumb. All he has to do is look in the mirror.
The $$ to discover why people come here is just another payoff for someone. Anyone that doesn’t understand that when you promise people housing and income they will stampede to your door … is stupid.
He needs to be prosecuted for treason against the USA. The penalty for treason? It sure as heck isn’t just impeach and retire on your Senate pension.
It must be because of all those right wing extremists who ask difficult questions and point out contradictions in the offical narrative. How dare these unwashed plebs do this?
But it’s gonna be Trump’s fault.
The White House and their fake numbers are basically the same as Joe’s real poll numbers. The real numbers are actually exponentially lower. Just take the numbers that they claim, and divide by 2, then divide by 2 again, So if Joes poll numbers are at 39%…the real number is actually 9.75%….and with the GDP….if they claim 6.5%….its really 1.6%
Biden didn’t spend all those years in Congress without picking up at least one or two acorns of knowledge. He learned well the old shell game, now you see it now you don’t and smoke and mirrors. The Democrat party has mastered these games and many Americans especially the naive who swallow it hook line and sinker.
ABC Ipsos poll:
https://rumble.com/vtt2fd-biden-gets-1-rating.html
1% for the big guy on the US economy
With hospitals brimming full of patients – bouncing around mid-90% occupancies as compared to the around 80% pre-bioweapon attack levels – I have to suspect that the healthcare business is good these days. Healthcare itself however sucks with people being forced to wait for necessary but not top priority procedures due to “bed shortages” conveniently blamed on the “the unvaxxed.”
It’s healthcare rationing by any other name and a preview of what single payer healthcare portends. We should be paying attention to and publicizing this inconvenient progressive healthcare system fact. Healthcare rationing, whatever the driving force behind it is, is awful, even if it’s “free”. If you like what’s happening right now, keep pushing for it. If not, use todays real life experiences as a teachable moment to explain why it’s so misguided.
California is on the cusp of showing the rest of the country how bad they can screw up healthcare.
The fact that the CCP virus has been used to force all of the majors in line, the next blow will drop level of care to UK NIH levels.
The exodus from CA is about to accelerate bigly.
Jen Psaki is a plain-faced liar. Anyone who watched the debates in 2020 knows that Biden campaigned on defunding police. The VP took part in violence when she funded bail monies for the BLM and Antifa criminals in Seattle, Portland, and Wisconsin. BLM and Antifa raged for months burning courthouses and places of business, raiding and looting businesses. This administration has done everything possible to thwart the law. They have even spurned Supreme Court orders on Remain in Mexico policy and illegally sending illegal immigrants all across this country while Myorkis has twiddled his thumbs.
When “plausible deniability” policy leads, chaos follows.
Biden could never be a leader for this reason.
There is no doubt that the Biden people have been borrowing from future periods to put lipstick on their piggley economy. Eventually, you have to pay the price because you can only go to those troughs once. The hope was that by the time they had to pay the piper the economy would have recovered. What they didn’t count on was out of control inflation. This is going to be ugly.
Not only is Pissaki a pathological liar, but the condescension of her delivery is nauseating. Her Marie Antoinette ‘Let them get drunk’ – absolutely disgusting.